Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Japan is Sharp I would assume, and China Powin Energy. Nice that the demand is there as they guided previously. Don't believe they will reach profitability and maintain a market cap under 100 million. If they did I would be worried and wondering why??? Not sure about B-TRAN thing, they haven't even yet decided if they are going to go with that vs. the BD-IGBT. Speaking of that, they indicated they would have a working prototype using the BD-IGBT by the end of this year...two months left to go and we're still waiting. Hoping to hear some positive news regarding that this CC. Bottom line, they are at least a year behined regarding their commercialization efforts initially forecasted for their BD-IGBT. You can see that for yourself if you read their
BD-IGBT roadmap white paper. I am excited about their B-TRANs too, as it seems to give them more control via patents, and it would seem to have wider applicability if it works as advertised. Just not buying that it will be ready sometime in 2017 is all - IF they do decide to go that route. It would be nice though if I am wrong though, always possible I guess, as they did decide to go with another fab with their B-TRAN development effort I noticed, instead of sticking with the same fab working on their BD-IGBT.
May be the most significant power semiconductor since the IGBT...
"Given the performance predictions for this new power switch topology, the B-TRAN may be the most significant new type of power semiconductor since the introduction of the IGBT," says Dr. Richard Blanchard, a B-TRAN co-inventor and holder of over 200 patents primarily related to power semiconductors including the widely used trench MOSFET.
I didn't really know if this "most significant since IGBT" amounted to a hill of beans, so I did a little research.
Apparently ipwr may have stumbled across the Golden Goose and her eggs.
Here is the link to the guy who invented the IGBT, and how significant the IGBT is to power electronic applications.
link
From the article...
"Every equipment from your refrigerator to lights to motor vehicles has the need to use energy efficiently. If you take away the IGBT today, almost everything will come to a standstill,” Baliga told IANS on the eve of receiving the award in St. Petersburg, which was to be presented by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday.
Professor Baliga, who now teaches at the North Carolina university as “distinguished university professor,” said the invention has possibly saved the world around $24 trillion by raising energy efficiency.
He said every motor today is at least 40 percent more efficient, the light bulb like the CFL is better by almost 75 percent and a motor vehicle saves over 10 percent fuel because of his invention.
Zacks goes to a BUY rating. Amazing...all in the space of a few short months, Zacks goes from a sell to a hold to a buy. The only thing I can think of is the earnings beat by a few cents, or maybe the additional channel partners that have been added, or the new patents that have been awarded...with over 100 pending, maybe it was the reiteration of a buy by Roth Capital, or possibly EOS's stunning amount of preorders? Take your pick.
If Zacks was truly doing DD on this company, they would have had a buy recommendation out months ago!
This is welcome news. When I met Tim a few weeks ago when he was here in Mpls. he said that IPWR might one day be in the business of selling these unique transistors on the open market, as well as their unique power converters.
LG Chem article with nice graph of predicted ESS market out to 2020. Things look very good for ipwr's prospects with the exponential growth rate forecasted.
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150503000219
Very nice find ffoggy! Wow...Ideal Power -a "global player" !!! Who would have guessed? While maybe not exactly an accurate description of ipwr as of today, but maybe someday not to far off it will be more apt. Dan did say up to 25% of their revenue next year could be from international sales.
My thoughts are I hate dilution of my shares...however, in this case, I will give ipwr a pass for the following reasons.
1. Initial ipo was for around 5.50 I believe, so at 7.75/share the shares are obviously worth more to the buyers, even though there are more of them. Looking at the chart since it's ipo, seems 7.75 is basically about its midpoint more or less.
2. Though it would have been nice to see ipwr reach profitability without an additional influx of capital...it was VERY iffy at best. Things would have to go absolutely perfect for this to happen in my opinion. The raise of capital now while the markets are at, or near a top, was a smart financial move on their part...instead of waiting until they HAD to have the money and no telling what the state of the market would be in at that time. i.e. if the markets in general were in a tail-spin in the future, I kind of doubt that would have been the best time to go looking for a raise. Now they have the money in place where it looks at least 50-50 from my perspective that they can achieve profitability without an additional raise.
3. The CEO stated on the previous CCs and investor meetings that they were well financed to the end of the year and not looking to rush out and raise additional capital. It would seem "well financed" is a relative term. I think what happened is that they couldn't ink a deal with one or more potential channel partners, until they (the futute channel partners which will be announced within the next few months I imagine) felt more comfortable with ipwr's balance sheet, i.e. they wanted to make sure that ipwr would be around for the forseeable future before commiting to their products. IF that is true, that is a very good thing. Will probably find out I imagine on the next CC.
I don't trust Zacks at all...they seem to be followers of other analysts. You never hear a Zacks Analyst on a conference call (if you have then let me know...because I haven't). If you want to "grok" a company and it's prospects you need to listen to each a every CC, and then google what you can to fact check what has been said about the market and other salient points. I think they (Zacks) has a (mostly) computerized system in place...and I have noted on at least one occassion that it would seem their computer is looking at the figures for a completely different company than the one they are supposedly making a recommendation for. So, bottom line...you can bet Zacks knows NOTHING about the lean team that will allow gross profits to quickly reach the bottom line, the growth prospects for the market they currently address, or the new tech. they have in the pipeline that will allow them to expand their market.
IPWR's new transistors that they are developing are silcon based, AND they are "BD-IGBT's - Bi Directional Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors", instead of just IGBT's like they use today. And yeah, these new transistors are supposed to be approaching 99% efficiency.
Back in post #43 by ffoggy, the subject of CREE's new SiC mosfets came up, and if they posed a threat to ipwr's new transistor effort. My response was basical that IF they are better than the new BD transistors of ipwr, then ipwr could simply buy the new SiC mosfets and incorporate it into their design...worse case. They'll still have all the other advantages that their unique design gives them over the competition. However, I'm hoping these new BD transistors will be as efficient as the CREE SiC mosftets...and cheaper too.
Hope this clarifies things.
Here are the questions I submitted to Matt Hayden to give to managment (time permitting).
1. There is a new high power Silicon Carbide mosfet from Cree, and they say it is better than a standard igbt. So just wondering if this new transistor device poses a threat to your next generation bidirectional igbt?
2. I've seen some announcements from Enphase, Tesla, and others regarding home storage systems. I was curious as to your thoughts about this market, and when you might be entering it.
No, not 100% positive...but pretty sure. Right now ipwr uses 2 igbt/diode paths to and from the magnetic inductor where the energy is temporarily stored. The igbts being of the common silicon variety. Can't see how it would make much of a difference if they swapped in the higher priced SiC mosfet transistors, other than they might have to tweak the SW a bit to take advantage of the faster switching times available via the mosfets, they would also probably reduce the heat dissapation thing they have now as the mosfets supposedly run cooler.
But...they plan on doing those tweaks anyway for their new bd-igbts, however, I imagine it would vary somewhat from their bd-igbt redesign if they decided to go with the cree mosfets.
My only caveat would be it does make it harder (right now...without their new bd-igbt operational) for ipwr to compete against companies that might use these new mosfets to make straight, plain, vanilla, inverters...IF ipwr was interested in competing in that space, which they are not, as they have made clear (too much price pressure, and it doesn't really take advantage of their unique technology).
Having said all this...I do believe it would make and excellent question to give to Matt Hayden (their IR guy) to submit to management at the 1st quarter CC next month. (They answered my questions a few quarters ago that I submitted to Matt via email concerning gross profits). In fact, it might provide some excellent color on the state of their new bd-igbt, and any tech. threats they may perceive...
Regarding the new, more efficient Silicon Carbide mosfets from CREE...
Cree wants to sell these things, so if they prove better than ipwr's next generation bd-igbt from a cost and efficiency standpoint, ipwr can just buy them from cree like everyone else. However, no one else will benefit from the transformerless isolation and the software control of the output...i.e. 50/60 hz, ac or dc, etc. like ipwr has, regardless of how many of these new SiC mosfets they incorporate into their new devices...
If the new bd-igbts work as expected, they will be on par with cree's new mosfet/diode combo, and be cheaper to boot.
I read that article in the link you referenced, and yeah, PMM (efficiencies of 238% ?!). My worry is a large player like TSLA enters the storage market and tries to smother the competition, i.e the other battery makers, power converter suppliers, control software companies, system integrators, etc. We are pretty much guaranteed that TSLA will be making a formal announcement concerning energy storage this month, just hoping that their competion is ready to compete with them. Maybe it will be a good thing though, and be just the thing to get this market kicked into high gear. Hard to imagine that large battery makers like LG and Samsung would give up such a huge potential market without a fight.
Good article, thanks for the link. Hope this roadblock soon vanishes after proposed demo project! By the way, ipwr got a plug by an analyst at Craig-Hallum today. Anyone ever hear of these guys? Hope ipwr is not paying for coverage....I would not be happy with that.
Seems to be a good company with solid product(s) that are gaining traction in the market place. Market for energy storage systems seems to be accelerating too. Co. seems open and forthcoming on their CC, shareholder interest seems to be in mind as ceo states the goal is to reach profitability asap. I also like how they plan on staying lean and mean even with sig. increases in revenue....that means more and more gross profit will be flowing to the bottom line. I like how you can listen to older CC from the Co. website, and then judge managements performance by what was said...and the subsequent press releases until the next CC. (Lots of Co. don't seem to keep their plder CC around for very long... ) Most things hinted at or explicitely stated have come to pass. I like that, makes me think they are competent. Nothing worse than poor management at the helm of your ship..
My biggest concern right now is that they run into some unforseen problem trying to implement their new
bd-igbt switch. I keep thinking that going from two transistors and two diodes to one bd-igbt may overstress the new switch somehow...but not an expert in that area so have no idea really. They seem to think they can get it to work...so will have to trust them.
I hear Apple may be getting in on the energy storage game too, instead of competing against TSLA in the car space (as has been rumored)...it would be against TSLA in the energy storage space. Think that would be more advantageous to ipwr.
By the way...regarding my rant on ipwr failing so far on the BD-IGBT's...I may have misconstrued the Q1 2014 CC remarks of "a working prototype" to mean a protype of a power converter using the new transistor...when in fact, they just meant a prototype of the transistor itself. In this they are still on track, things are looking good, and my grade goes from a "Fail" to a "Pass".
Thanks Otomo...now I can't get my hat on my fat head!....
My take after latest conference call and investor presentation...
My rant from previous post...#15:
(....However, in the meantime, ipwr is clearly in a downtrend, so my buy is at the low end of the descending channel (already have a few shares...would like to see an uptrend begin, even if I have to buy at a higher price later on).)
Has ipwr finally broken its long (almost a year), demoralizing downtrend?!? It would appear so Jim. One can only hope that this is the start of a multi-year Bull run for it... If revenue continues to accelerate...and it can find its way to their bottom line, as mngmt seems to be focused on, then the prospects are pretty good.
Did I buy more? Yes I did, picked up a few hundred more...and I did pay a higher price for it.
Score: A+. Downtrend broken, and on increasing volume too...I am told this is a good sign.
(The key milestones I'm looking for:)
(1. Revenue continues to improve fairly significantly each and every quarter this year.)
Well, mngmt announced q1 revenue would come close to ALL the product revenue recorded in 2014...and seemed to indicate that it would continue to improve throughout the year via new channel partner announcements coming up, and larger orders they are expecting from their existing customers. They also announced keeping a record of backlog...now just over 2 million, which will be converted to revenue within 6 months. Bottom line, look for a revenue increase of AT LEAST 400% this year...although lets be realistic. The 1.2 million in revenue recorded last year was pathetic, so an easy bar to clear. If I see simular gains in 2016 I will begin to be impressed. However, they had to start somewhere...
Score: C if they only record 4 * 1.2 million =~ 5 million this year.
B if they record 7
A for 9
(2. Gross profits on revenue, which they indicated should happen no later than Q2.)
Well, mngmt is sticking to this story, and why would they stick their necks out like that unless they could deliver?
Score: A for Q1 positve gross margin, B for Q2.
(3. Their new transistor is ready to be incorporated into their existing products no later than Q4, hoping for Q3 though.)
FAIL!!! On their 2014 Q1 CC They indicated switches were already being fabricated, with talk of a prototype ready for testing by end of year. NOW they are talking computer simulations blah blah, and they have fabricated these new transistors based on these simulations. You can simulate Santa Claus on a computer too. This upcoming prototype will be CRUCIAL. Now mngmt is saying prototype later this year, with heavy testing into next, before ready for prime time. My take away, this new transistor is KEY, as they indicated in their latest investor presentation slide show...the total addressable market increases over 30 x IF they can pull this off. They have a nice little, (and fast growing) niche market right now, but as mngmt indicated...even for this market, this upcoming transistor is KEY to long term gross margin protection. Cross your fingers kiddies, lets all hope its just more difficult than mngmt initially envissioned, but ulitmately doable.
(4. Mngmt guides to bottom line profit by Q1 of 2016.)
They have not done so yet, but too early in the year for such a bold prediction.
Grade: Pass
(5. Some new channel partner announcements this year, hoping no later than by Q3.)
They have already done so with Boeing and Gexpro, more on the way indicated by mngmt.
Grade: A+
(6. One or two new product announcements this year, one in the first half, one in the second would be nice.)
Announced 50/60 Hz and microgrid forming capability software upgrade for all products. As this geographically expands their product line...I will count this the same as a new product. Though I still expect something in hardware before the year is out.
Grade: A, but becomes a B- if not followed up with something else this year.
Overall....Pretty good.
They seem very focused on the bottom line...i.e. getting increasing revenue to a positve EPS asap. I like that.
Hope this new transistor pans out as they hope...if so, believe they might go for the "EV Traction" market...i.e. the conversion market between the battery and the motor in TSLA type vehicles, as I noticed how this had the fasted predicted CAGR.
Based on their last quarterly report, I'd have to say around 2/11. Expecting (I hope anyway) for some announcement of new orders by then too, or maybe a new vendor agreement like they announced with Sharp Electronics last year...a collaboration with enphase (enph) or solar city would be nice. Better yet, both, and a new product announcement too, and while I'm dreaming....that their new transistors (BD-IGBT's) are ready to rock and roll!
However, in the meantime, ipwr is clearly in a downtrend, so my buy is at the low end of the descending channel (already have a few shares...would like to see an uptrend begin, even if I have to buy at a higher price later on).
The key milestones I'm looking for:
1. Revenue continues to improve fairly significantly each and every quarter this year.
2. Gross profits on revenue, which they indicated should happen no later than Q2.
3. Their new transistor is ready to be incorporated into their existing products no later than Q4, hoping for Q3 though.
4. Mngmt guides to bottom line profit by Q1 of 2016.
5. Some new channel partner announcements this year, hoping no later than by Q3.
6. One or two new product announcements this year, one in the first half, one in the second would be nice.
I think he resigned because he got pushed aside...he used to be the CEO, but the board of directors brought in a new one after IPO, or just before...can't remember now. Then, they hired that Ryan O'keefe guy as VP of business dev. -that might have shrunk his role somewhat too.
On the bright side, they hired a new VP of engineering by the name of Uwe.
Chris