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Druckenmiller on copper:
"Stanley Druckemiller thinks copper is a pretty simple story.
I obviously agree with him.
Here's the full quote:
"Copper is a pretty simple story. Takes about 12 years, greenfield to produce copper, and you got EVs, the grid, data centers, and believe it or not munitions.
These missiles all got enough copper in them and the world’s getting hot that we just think the supply-demand situation is incredible for the next five or six years.""
HHS I agree in that I thought the quarter, after restructure was about where I thought they'd hit, and if you wanna ex out stock based comp, than I guess better. The negative .06/share earnings estimate was out there. And I would guess next quarter will be similar, maybe a bit better. Of course the remaining qtrs of '24 will be littered with restructure expenses as expected. And you have the one time pension sale hit coming up... but I actually like that move.
So for me, its really a bet on management and their ability to turn things around.. how much an investor believes in them. Will they actually hit the restructuring benefits as much as they say.. its a huge number. And than while these efforts will lead to reduced costs, are there also increased expenses (non-one time restructure) that will reduce the effects of the restructure? Good news is the estimated savings are so huge, even if it nets at 2/3 of their estimates it would be a big positive.
Anyway, in the call they seem super optimistic about their efforts to both drive up sales while reducing expenses .. in theory the first small wave of those benefits hit in q3, followed by bigger waves. I guess one has to determine what percent of their optimism and guide is real and what percent (if any) is puffery.
I own a small position, maybe one percent. I mean for me thats not teeny since I own around 80.
btw, what did you think of CRNT's report? It was basically where I expected.
SRTS I mean I sure wish I didn't sell out wherever I did, but I find it hard to buy in the fives. And thanks for your commentary and earnings and the CC, gives me a better feel for them. Would you be a buyer in the low fives, or even the high fours?
SRTS I own a big zero shares.
SRTS in with an unexpectedly BIG quarter
GEOS I don't know how low it goes but I also will be looking to re-enter.
PSIX I saw the pr.. but only had a chance to scan it, but I imagine some of that margin improvement is by way of the dramatic reduction in debt. And we see they are continuing to pay down debt; and you'd think that will continue and drive net margins up further as the year goes on.
VNDA not sure.
VNDA ... Future Pak really wants 'em, ... Future Pak has boosted its acquisition offer for Vanda Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VNDA) to include contingent value rights in addition to the previously announced increased cash consideration of $7.25 to $7.75 per share.
Vanda shares are up ~15% in Tuesday morning trading.
Future Pak said that its latest offer represents a total consideration of $11.62 to $12.12 per share. If full CVRs are exercised, it also represents a premium of 140% to 150% to Vanda's closing price of $4.84 on May 6.
The CVRs are valued at up to $260M, according to Future Pak.
MLR positive article from SA, article ex graphics below:
Miller Industries Can Keep Pulling Itself Higher As Conditions Stabilize
May 06, 2024 4:39 PM ETMiller Industries, Inc. (MLR)
Daniel Jones
(1)
Summary
Miller Industries, Inc. has seen a significant increase in share price, outperforming the S&P 500.
The company has experienced growth in revenue, profits, and cash flows, driven by supply chain improvements and strong customer demand.
Management is expected to announce financial results for Q1 2024 on May 8th, and investors should anticipate further increases in revenue, profits, and cash flows.
My name is Dan Jones. I have degrees in accounting and economics, and ran a registered investment advisor for nine years. I lead the investing group Crude Value Insights.
One of the best performing companies, from a share price appreciation perspective, over the past year or so has been Miller Industries, Inc. (NYSE:MLR). For those not familiar with the company, it focuses on the production and sale of towing and recovery equipment. Since I last reiterated my "Buy" rating on the stock in early February 2023, shares are up 94.4% compared to the 24.2% rise seen by the S&P 500. Even better, since I first rated the company a "Buy" in March 2022, the stock is up 104.3%. That dwarfs the 14.3% increase seen by the broader market over the same window of time.
This move higher has not been without a cause. Revenue, profits, and cash flows, have all increased nicely year over year. It is fair to question just how much additional upside could be on the table. But the fact of the matter is that, when you consider how far the company has come in such a short window of time, it's not difficult to imagine even further increases moving forward. This is not to imply that we will see a comparable amount of upside. That is unlikely because the easy money has already been made. But absent something unexpected occurring, I do think optimism is warranted.
Of course, as investors, it's incumbent upon us to be flexible. As new data comes in, our assessment of the picture should change. Sometimes, this will be for the better. Other times, it will be for the worse. It just so happens that management is expected to report financial results covering the first quarter of the 2024 fiscal year after the market closes on May 8th.
Unfortunately, analysts have not provided any guidance on the matter. However, there are certain metrics that investors would be wise to pay attention to as earnings near.
Massive upside achieved
As I mentioned already, the past year or so has been particularly pleasant for shareholders of Miller Industries. Revenue during the 2023 fiscal year, for instance, came in at $1.15 billion. That's an increase of 35.9% compared to the $848.5 million generated one year earlier. This move higher, according to management, was driven by higher production volumes that the company chalked up to supply chain improvements and strong customer demand. Although not as significant, it seems pricing increases also contributed to some of this. But of course, management did not provide any assessment of the impact of price increases.
On the bottom line, the situation looked even better. Net profits nearly tripled from $20.3 million to $58.3 million. While the increase in revenue for the company was instrumental in achieving this, an undeniably big impact came from some margin expansion. Notably, the firm's gross profit margin managed to increase from 9.7% to 13.2%. While this may not seem like much, when applied to the revenue generated last year, that's an extra $39.9 million in pretax profits for the firm. Supply chain stabilization permitted higher deliveries, which management attributed to the improvement.
Naturally, other profitability metrics moved higher as well. Operating cash flow went from negative $19.2 million to positive $11 million. Adjusted operating cash flow more than doubled from $34.2 million to $70.5 million. And finally, EBITDA generated by the enterprise rose from $41.4 million to $92 million.
All things considered, this is a rather impressive showing for the company. It also has helped to make the company more appealing from a valuation perspective. As an example, I would like to point to the chart above. In it, you can see how shares are valued using results from 2023 and from 2022. The stock has gotten a lot cheaper even though its share price has moved up. Now, in the table below, you can see the firm compared to five similar enterprises. On that basis, shares aren't exactly cheap. But they are far from expensive, with only two of the companies cheaper than it using each of the three valuation approaches.
Company Price / Earnings Price / Operating Cash Flow EV / EBITDA
Miller Industries 10.4 8.6 6.9
Westport Fuel Systems (WPRT) 6.9 N/A 17.7
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) 4.1 5.2 4.8
Manitowoc (MTW) 11.5 7.2 5.6
Douglas Dynamics (PLOW) 20.4 11.5 10.7
Astec Industries (ASTE) 29.6 35.8 12.2
Whenever I see a big improvement like this, I have to ask myself whether the increase is temporary or part of a new normal. To not ask this and delve into it is to invite value traps. The good news for those who are bullish about the business is that this actually appears to be a reversion to how things were before the pandemic. By management's own admission, the business has struggled with inflationary pressures and supply chain problems recently. In its 2023 annual report, the company even acknowledges that it continues to see significant pressure on global supply chains. They also mentioned that inflation could continue to cause issues when it comes to foreign currency fluctuations that impact the company.
If you look at the chart below, however, it seems the worst is probably behind us. That chart shows the operating profit margin of the company from 2015 through 2023. Up through 2019, the picture was gradually improving year after year, with margins widening. The pandemic brought with it two very difficult years in 2021 and 2022. But now, with supply chain issues improving, and the company finally regaining pricing power, margins have rebounded to levels that are actually above what they were before the pandemic. It's not unthinkable that margins could decrease slightly to match what they were back then. But that would be only a small inconvenience compared to what the firm had seen in the prior couple of years.
There are also some other things working in the company's favor. For starters, in early April, management announced a new $25 million share buyback program. They also boosted their quarterly dividend by 5.6% in the last quarter. Both of these show that management is confident in the company's financial condition.
There could also be a catalyst that could help shareholders. In March of this year, the company publicly responded to a letter put out by Advisory Research, which has a stake in Miller Industries. That letter called for the company to form a special committee to conduct a strategic review process. This could result in a sale of the business, a part of the business, or even restructuring activities aimed at creating shareholder value. However, Advisory Research ultimately revealed to management that its end goal was to see the company sold. Management, citing the company's success over the past year or so, concluded that it is "proud of the current state" of the business. While I think the firm is right about this, you never know what kind of major transactions could come through the pipeline.
Although I don't expect anything to occur currently, any big development likely would come when earnings are released. And it just so happens that management is expected to announce financial results covering the first quarter of the 2024 fiscal year after the market closes on May 8th. Analysts have not provided any estimates of revenue or earnings. But in the table below, you can see how financials were during the first quarter of 2023. Considering how performance has been over the past year or so, and the fact that backlog for the company remains near all-time highs, I wouldn't be surprised if revenue, profits, and cash flows, are all higher year over year.
Takeaway
Based on the data provided, I believe that Miller Industries remains an attractive opportunity. I do think the easy money has been made. However, the stock is cheap enough, particularly on an absolute basis, to warrant additional upside in my book. Given these factors, and others, such as the new share buyback program, I believe that a soft "Buy" rating makes sense right now.
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
re. '..There seem to be a gazillion bank stocks out there..'
There are a gazillion banks just in the small town I live in. And nail salons.
IART looks like adjusted eps guidance for '24 which was further down the pr was lowered, and is now $3.055 (mid) which is 4 or 5% below analyst estimates. Market now really is not happy with the numbers.
IART looks decent at a glance, $369 mil and .55 adjusted eps and increase yearly revenue guidance by 4.3% as a result of their Acclarent acquisition. Although bid ask shows an adverse reaction.
Miles Davis angry at Herbie Hancock... i dunno, I just find this funny, 17 sec clip
COHN thx for all that info.
Trump Media’s accounting firm charged with ‘massive fraud’: https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/03/business/trump-media-accounting-firm-charged-fraud/index.html
COHN they could have a nice report.. like last qtr, and they just want to talk about it. Or it could be that those f'ers just forgot that they xclled their conf calls and/or whoever sent this thang out meant it to just mention their earnings release, but accidentally stuck the normal CC time. Do you think this could mean good earnings news?
Do you still own this one? I've traded it a few times for small change since earnings.... I still have a very dinky position
best.
GENC back up a bit, you still holding some hweb? I sold a few basically at current levels. Not that it was a huge gain or anything from my buy, I guess only 10%.
DEA Agrees To Reschedule Marijuana Under Federal Law In Historic Move Following Biden-Directed Health Agency’s RecommendationPublished on April 30, 2024By Kyle Jaeger
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-agrees-to-reschedule-marijuana-under-federal-law-in-historic-move-following-biden-directed-health-agencys-recommendation/
ESP I added some .. as low as $20.90, but foolishly stuck an order in to sell the low $23's which hit this morning... I still own some, and in fact just noticed that I had sold more at $24.98. I don't think I want to own any come earnings day, I guess mid-month.
BTW, what do you think of FONR here in the mid/high $15's. I bought some, but imo it becomes a real strong risk-reward at $15 or lower. There, so long as they make in the mid thirties, there's little to no down side, and if they make .45+ then plenty of upside.
thx for the covers, going both ways... !
Norah Jones & Jakob Dylan - Never My Love (The Association cover)
real nice!
IMMR thx for that info
Hweb, Larry, IMMR the Singer family.. could you tell me a few things they have done that were shareholder unfriendly with stocks they controlled?
On IMMR, I just started looking at them, and I'm still not sure what the do or how they make money.
best.
CBBI thx for that analysis.
ULH congrats on that purchase!
CUBI CBBI hey SSK, any thoughts on these two bank earnings reports? I have a small position in CUBI, the report looked ok but not great to me. Wondering if there is an area you might buy since its already down a bunch. And on CBBI, earnings were underwhelming.. flip side is its trading wayyyyyyy below tang book.
TPC just sold half at $16.87 up $2.95. I did mention here less than two weeks ago that TPC preannounced very strong earnings and very strong sales (vs the analyst estimate of a decent sized loss and sales 20% below what the were preannouncing) but it was buried at the bottom of a refi 8-k and never pr'd. Earnings turned out less than that estimate but still a strong profit vs the expected loss ... I guess the analyst never saw the 8K. Hope some of you grabbed some ... I started buying at $14, but it kept on going lower... down to the low $13's ... 6% lower than before they gave the new estimate for the qtr.
best.
Knopfler & Emmylou - If This Is Goodbye, live
Ally Venable with Buddy Guy - Texas Louisiana
TSLA I am still not a big fan of TSLA here. My guess is she will probably fall back again. But I certainly don't have the cajones to short. I do think over the short/mid term, TSLA will become more and more valued as an automobile company. And my guess is also that '25 estimates are still a bit too high (even though they dropped from $8 to $3.41 over the past six months or so).
But then again, I could most definitely be 100% wrong.
best.
'The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
The US is officially the largest oil producer in the world, and it's not even close.
Currently, the US is producing 12.9 million barrels per day of crude oil.
This is nearly 30% more than the 10.1 million barrels per day that Russia produces and 33% more than Saudi Arabia.'
In fact, the US alone pumps 45% of the output produced by the entire OPEC combined.
Furthermore, the US now produces nearly 4 TIMES as much oil as Brazil.
Truly remarkable.'
Wu Tang Clan @ New Orleans Jazz Festival with Kick Arse Sign Language Interpreter
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/CEJqkuxyYVY
And after Leonard, he stuck in another starter Gura ... who got bombed the night before.. and Gura gave up the big single that tied the game.
yup.. although he did lose three straight ALCS's to the 'hated' bronx bombers... and that '77 loss in game five (of five) coming into the ninth up a run was gut-wrenching.
Crooked SPCB raised money for the upteenth time
'SuperCom stock falls after company prices its $2.9 million offering
Apr. 18, 2024 8:45 AM ETSuperCom Ltd. (SPCB) StockBy: Sinchita Mitra, SA News Editor
SuperCom (NASDAQ:SPCB) shares slid 16.7% in pre-market trade after it priced its $2.9 million registered direct offering.
The combined effective purchase price for one ordinary share and a warrant to purchase one ordinary share will be $0.36.
The warrants will be immediately exercisable upon issuance, will expire five years from the date of issuance, and will have an exercise price of $0.38 per ordinary share, the firm said.'
TSLA the sell side analysts are turning against this one.... Deutsche Bank joined today: 'Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner downgraded Tesla shares to Hold from Buy on Thursday. His price target went to $123 a share from $189, down $66 or 35%. Rosner believes Tesla's lower-priced vehicle, typically referred to as the Model 2, will be pushed out beyond late 2025.' I gotta look at this one to see where I'd buy.
ACCO thanks for your analysis
ACCO I'm kinda surprised you bought now. Seems like a solid risk-reward here, the only reason I am 'surprised' is b/c you generally don't like buying when a company is about to report its seasonally weak quarter.