Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I understand most of your points and think you had a great call on the 30's bottom. And yes I believe every short lived rally in the last 9 months have been short squeezes with FOMO (fear of missing out) investors chasing after the price as well only to see the price drop and become panicked sellers. As I said in the post I think there is a good chance we trade down from here since most of the "bids" are not new investors but simply desperate short covering with a mix of FOMO investors. So once they're done covering and people want to take profits they'll be selling into a weak bid again.
However, long term, (and any investor with significant capital or position has to be long term with a $20 Million market cap stock) I am bullish because of the reasons I've mentioned over and over again. I agree, most of the people cheering the stock on today will be questioning whether the company is a fraud or if we're in a "death spiral" again the second the stock has a couple down days again. As I said before, short sellers here just learned a valuable lesson (hopefully and probably not) and if they continue to short I will be happy to buy from them again but they are picking up pennies in front of a steam roller. Today was just rumblings of that steam roller. When it is here, everyone will know.
Agree back to the Masters!
Thanks for the information.
Can someone post the entire article or translation? I'm curious what he actually wants
That is why I am so curious about the timing..perhaps they know they have to aggressively buy back the shares and timed it with this article? Who knows..
So all know, there have been rumors floating around of many players including Arne Fredly shorting SIAF among other things. The timing of such an article with the loan potentially coming out any day now is very curious and could signal his need to cover his short. Time will tell.
Yes, 2016 Q4 was very poor as well at 22M (342M as seen in 2016 10K - 320M nine months as seen in 2016 Q3 report).
Yes the revenue number does not include Tri-way since it will show up as "Share of income from unconsolidated equity investee" as income. Plus as I said before, the previous quarters represented 23% share of Tri-way profits where as now it will reflect our full 36.6%.
This is the first quarter where our full ownership of 36.6% in Tri-way will be reflected in our profits (Previously they were 23%). Any estimate as to what gross profit will be for the quarter?
Again..why do you think they are Chinese banks? And why would any banks want to look at SIAF 10K for 2017? They would be much more interested in Tri-way's 2017 full-year audited report which they have already looked at since the loan is going to Tri-way.
We've gone from $16 to $0.4 because of "broken promises" as you say, which really only means a delay in the Tri-way dividend and CA contracts which are still on the table; there seem to be new prospects actually on the table since last year for CA. So do you think such a price decrease $16 to $0.4 justifies a delay in these "promises"? In my opinion, the share price has been more a function of dilution/collateral shares hitting the market which have caused fear in retail sellers (since institutional investors continued to pick up shares aggressively especially counting Garrett) and has been exploited by short sellers and market makers. But the company is fixing this finally.
So are you long, short, or just looking for people to sell you shares because it seems strange to suddenly post how we are "fo-ked!" after the share price rises 30% in a few hours.
Supply is gone so short covering and any minor buying should move it up on its own. Now we just have to wait until there's significant news to bring in big buyers. Will be fun to watch the share price when there's no supply AND new buyers in the market.
Many times it's because they're typing in a different language than their primary speaking language. Just try to be a little more considerate when that's the case. I get the gist of it most of the time so I don't mind if it's not perfect grammar. This is just a message board. I'm pretty zero and everyone else I have on ignore have English as their first language and yet write completely incoherently..no excuse for that..
Thanks for using all capital letters like zero. And did you make yet another incorrect assumption and think I thought it was the 10K? Because I clearly wrote 10K/A. So please explain how that explains my level of sophistication? And make sure to explain with details, don't be vague otherwise by your logic we'll all know you don't know "jack".
What do you think of them filing the 10K/A? I remember you said you thought they'd have problems and not be able to file it. Now they have.
10K Amendment filed!
I'm glad you finally found someone to tolerate speaking with you again since you got cut off and put in timeout before. So after screaming that the loan must have failed so many times you now suddenly think the loan is going to happen? What changed your mind, care to elaborate? Be very specific because if you're vague or refuse then you don't know "jack"..
My question was what you suggest be done to influence what you are suggesting in any way. Getting the biggest shareholders to send a letter to have Solomon get rid of A shares etc.? I would fully support these shareholder friendly actions.
The difference is Solomon is about to finally get $80-100 Million USD from a group of banks as opposed to shareholders..Such an event is unprecedented in SIAF history (ECAB convertible loan is the closest and we saw what happened afterwards) and would not have been possible without the arduous COSO process that gave us an independent Tri-way. With the loan, shareholder friendly actions can finally be taken (buybacks/cash dividends/cap on share count) and without the constant selling pressure the company can work towards reaching an appropriate valuation. The share price we are seeing is a refusal of shareholders to finance Solomon anymore.
What do you suggest shareholders or significant shareholders do to influence this search process for the type of CEO you are discussing? If anything could be done to rid Solomon of his A shares I know several institutions that would aggressively establish positions to work as activist investors since like you said there is so much potential in the company. Tri-way will likely not have the A-shares that SIAF has so as long as we can close financing, and get the Tri-way dividend going, institutions will still buy SIAF to get their Tri-way shares. Perhaps CA can be spun off and listed with no A-shares as well too, that will surely attract institutions as well. I would prefer Solomon to simply give them up within SIAF though I don't see this happening.
Any explanation why Merkur was up today? Usually arbitrage guys bring it down on US OTC open. Have anything to do with the loan due in a few days?
He bought so aggressively because he thinks it'll be a good investment over the next few years. That includes closing financing, getting rid of collateral shares and establishing a cash dividend/buyback program when cash flow from Tri-way allow such actions to be sustainable. Him, myself, the company and many other investors believed the loan would close sooner as well. If anyone knew the loan would have taken this long they would have waited obviously..thankfully I think the wait will be over soon.
You are not alone in thinking the company won't receive any mega-loan. I have reasons for believing they will. And I am very certain the price will move too dramatically for anyone with a significant position to chase after. Nisse and others have been very clear they intend to do shareholder friendly actions once the loan is on the table as laid out in the memo last year. If the company can just stop increasing the share count the price will move up. They've been unsuccessful thus far but will hopefully tell us of their success soon.
I haven't asked him, and as an insider, I don't think he would be allowed to tell me even if he has already. But like myself, I believe he thinks financing will come from the banks SIAF has already been speaking with.
IR said "the plan is to actually file the 10K on time this time" Though that's usually always the plan. That was last week. I'm obviously a buyer for more than a short term bounce because I think we're very close to loan news that will completely break the long term trend we've been in. A long term break in trend after such news would make sense too because fundamentally the company has been stuck relying on equity financing as opposed to traditional debt financing. Then there's the potential catalyst of clarification on Loan 1 this or next week with a potential reduction in shares. Combine that with any short term bounce and it should be an interesting week or two..
Unhappy as everyone else but even with today's "swing" it was, what, a 3M marketcap move? He's very heavily invested to see this become a billion dollar market cap valuation over the long term. It starts with debt financing to replace and reduce share count, and cash dividends. SIAF paid a tiny $.10 dividend 3 years in a row from 2010-2012. That's close to a 30% yield at these prices. The f-share dividend was a 100% yield at these prices. The plan is to have a much higher dividend than that once financing is in place.
I know he had been on vacation for a bit but came back last week I believe. I'm sure he's swamped with upset shareholders. Recently I asked when Loan 1 is paid off and shares returned at the end of this month, will they PR the news. He said he thought that would be a PR worthy event.
Please just ignore these guys..everyone knows why they relentlessly post here every day with false information. As I said before they are picking up pennies in front of a steam roller. There are many buyers sitting on the sidelines until the Tri-way loan is announced so there's no bid right now. I think we could get an announcement as early as next week. We will see.
China's definitely not done yet. That would certainly be great news for SJAP and ultimately SIAF if China reimposed the U.S. beef ban. That'll just be a cherry on top once we can start getting some PR's of actual news going.
He purchased every share on the open market, except for the 300,000 as the fee for the loan to the company.
I fully support a quarterly cash dividend policy over a share buyback program. I fully agree with you. Who calls the shots on this though, Dan or Solomon? Dan's the CFO so I hope Dan.
Previous post alluded to being hopeful the loan package finishes before the 29th on their SIAF Golf trip. I guess we'll find out...
I agree. I already know institutions prefer a quarterly cash dividend as you mentioned. I was just pointing out what the company outlined they will do once they finish financing. I think shareholders should voice their opinion towards management once the loan is announced and these items start being discussed to push them towards cash dividends as opposed to buybacks. I haven't figured out whether Dan or Solomon makes the call though.
So when the Tri-way loan or other SIAF loans are announced will you change your mind and become bullish again? Basically what would make you become bullish?
The AGM Agenda gave us a good idea of what the company will do once they finally receive debt financing and can permanently shut down any need for equity financing (we got a taste of what that looks like when ECAB came in and stopped dilution back in 2014). The Agenda included establishing a cash dividend policy, buyback policy (imagine the company reducing shares as opposed to the continuous increase we have seen) but more importantly "Formulation of outstanding share count guidelines" (meaning finally putting a cap on the share count and ending dilution even in the form of collateral shares).