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Hard to argue with any of this. This is my current thinking as well. I am just debating on whether to try to catch some of the run up...risk/reward worth it?
Starting building a position in gold...for a long, long hold.
Paying attention to what? I must have missed something.
I have not the slightest idea where the market is headed now.
My orginal thought was to go short in late August. Then the whole Europe thing came (early or right on time) and the market starting dropping in May. If you held a gun to my head i would still say short in late August. My thinking is we might go test the highs 1220 on the SPX. It's funny, i can make a case out for the bears and bulls based off the monthly SPY chart.
I still think the toilet needs flushed in the stock market.
I would agree with this statement...
"I would say it could go up do to nothing more than a test of resistance (which used to be support). JMHO"
I kept my shares of TYH thinking the market could rebound early next week. I'm hoping everyone thinks there is a bear market and a lot of people jump on short because the 50/200 day crossover... only to watch the market rally for a few days. Wishful thinking it may be.
Price moves away from long wicks...generally
I picked up some TYH this afternoon at $24.81 hoping tomorrow we get a big run up in the morning. Now the hard part is, if the trade goes my way do i hold over the weekend?
This is a bear market now, so bullish signals should be played with caution...and perhaps less cash, so one can get a good night's sleep... ;)
Enjoy your sleep tonight!!
Yeah, i often wonder at times if the market is fixed. I am still not 100% certain Obama doesn't call someone in the morning after we've had a few days down and ask for the market to be up for the next few days. I am sure he doesn't do that, because he's out golfing mostly, but i still wonder.
As for TZA...i am in from $6.45 and $7.25. I usually buy in 1/3 lots. I was seriously thinking about buying again today but thought i better just wait until August, just in case. August was my original plan to starting building a short position in the market, but with the whole Europe thing going on, and that one day spike down of 1000 points i knew something was up, so i started to slowly build a position.
I think this train is going to be a long slow grind down. Is it possible to have a bear market that doesn't just crash quickly? I don't know? Which is why i want to learn about options. Make more money, while investing less. The 80 year cycle is upon us, and that's a big one.
As Woody Dorsey says "summer bummer".
Hey Fish, sorry to hear you are underwater. Even though my opinion doesn't matter more than a cow's opinion, i think you'll be fine in a couple of weeks. Usually price goes the opposite direction of long wicks. If you're a candlestick trader, you would be shorting the crap out of the market after today's candlestick. But again, who knows what's going to happen? But in most cases, the chart does not lie.
Very nice!!! Sign me up for one of those plays!
So, you can buy a call and sell the same call 1 day later? You don't have to wait until the 3rd week of the month?
thanks for the explanation.
It just seems that the stock price has to go up a lot in order to make the $200. Now, it could just be the example we used, not sure as i've never bought stock options before. But, if everyone here is making money doing it, you can't go wrong imo.
Maybe i am a little bit more confused than i thought.
1. I would think since the stock price didn't get to the agreed price, you would lose the $400...-$400
2. Logical thinking says if i buy something at $52 and sell something at $52 then i gain $0...but wait, i invested $400 to start out with to get the option agreement...so -$400
3. sell 400 shares for $1 profit/share = $400, so i would break even ...total profit $0
4. sell 400 shares for $2 profit/share - $400 to get the option, so my total profit would be $400
5. sell 400 shares for $3 profit/share - $400 to get the option,
so my total profit would be $800
So basically i would need the stock price to get above $53 before i made a profit? Is this correct?
If the above statement is correct, that seems like an awfully big spread from the current price to make a profit on this investment. Wouldn't it be better just to buy the shares outright? I know this is an example, but what exactly is the upside to buying/selling/shorting options?
keller
Assuming the current price is $50 and i buy 2 contracts.
1. I would assume -$200
2. $0
3. $200
4. $400
5. $600
Calculator was used...yikes!
Thanks for the link...
So let me get this straight from using the coca cola example.
If i buy 1 call options at $52 (current stock price $50) and the strike price is $2. I wouldn't make any money until the price goes above $52 because i'm already in the hole -$200?
So the most money i could lose is $200?
The most money i could make depends on how high the stock price went at the end of the month?
Am i seeing the light yet?
keller
Hey S2 or anyone else.
Do you have a good read that would explain shorting puts and calls? Something a 3rd grade kid would understand? For some reason i can never understand what does what.
thanks!
S2...30 yr bond.
Do you ever trade 30yr bond options? Some very trendy charts.
keller
Hey SyndicateTwo (chris)...
A few months ago you posted a QQQQ chart with your new trading method applied to it. How did that work out for you?
I haven't been able to follow the board, so i might have missed your post about it.
thanks
keller
Maybe he means STF (single stock futures).
Hello Satorino, how's Italy these days?
keller
I already use IB. Any chance you can come over here and click the mouse for me...that way i know i won't get it wrong.
thanks!!
keller
Thanks Chris...i will have to jump in one of these trades.
The best learning tool i guess is sometimes just to jump in the water with both feet.
keller
Thanks Chris for the explanation.
Is there any chance you could go over the microsoft trade as if the price would have went up instead of down. Just curious as to see what would have happened.
Thanks
keller
Stocktrace....you out there? I have a question for you.
e-mail me at nobears78@yahoo.com Be sure in the subject put your name so i know its you.
thanks!
keller
Wow, thanks for the post explaining the economy to me. I feel as though i should send you some money for all of that. At least a basket of fruit.
What is your occupation? You should clearly be a teacher/professor because you make things very clear.
keller
Any chance you can go into more depth about this "helluva downturn" in the coming years? Is this supposed to be after 2010? I am new to all of this economic talk, but would love to hear more comments about this.
thanks...keller
Hmmm...makes you wonder now doesn't it?
Stock-trace, where you hiding at? I always enjoyed reading your post.
keller
Wonderful ride there Jim...Great job. Just curious, does your system tell you what percentage to go long? I noticed you are 60% long. Where did thid number come from?
thanks,
keller
The thing i don't understand. I don't want to seem like a flamer, i am more just asking this out of curiosity. I don't care if the market goes up or down, i just want to make money.
My question is this...Pokersam, what will it take for you to change your view of the market from a bear to a bull? Or maybe not even a bull, just a view that able to change according to what the market is doing? I just don't understand how you can be calling a bear market when we are hitting all time highs on the dow and the nas (which may never hit all time highs in my lifetime) is up nicely this year? Sure, eventually we will be in a bear market, but it just seems that i have never heard you say anything other than "bear market." If this market goes to 13,000 and the nas goes to 2800...just think of all the money you could have made going into the market with an open mind. You have to take what the chart gives you, not draw you own conclusions and hope that is what the charts gives you.
Again, i am not typing this to start a fight, just a question.
nevermind..i found his hiding spot
can we get a link?
thanks
keller
Boys and girls...i'll ask the question everyone is wondering. What was the name of the book?
keller...the nosey one
Thanks Jim for that read. Very interesting stuff in there.
thanks
keller
That would mean the QQQQ's have to move over $3.50 to the downside in the next 11 trading days. If that happens, i'll be amazed...i hope it does though.
keller
That should also set up that inverted head and shoulders on the Q's that you have been talking about.
Thanks for the update stocktrace. I follow your post and enjoy your thoughts on the markets. If i may ask, why would you take a break?
thanks
Keller
Oh goodness...i hope POKERSHAM never finds out about this bored. No one annoys me more than his ranting. I should never want people to lose money, but somethines i have to make myself think happy thoughts when his name is brought up. Ugg...i guess everyone needs a hug.
keller
Thanks Chris for the very easy to understand description. You should think about writing a book. Thanks for babysitting my question. I know you are probably tired about babysitting some of us when you have twins on your hands now.
I have an interactive broker account...i'll have to get busy trading some options. I can't make (or lose) money while sitting on my hands.
Let me ask you one more question....why would anyone want to trade stocks? It sounds less risky and more profitable to trade the options on the stock.
Thanks again...
Keller
I still don't quite understand options yet...i keep reading, but sometimes things just don't sink in fully until i actually start trading them...
With that said, i want to be prepared to catch this QQQQ trade if in fact, the chart does give us an inverted head and shoulders. Even if you say the upside is great i still don't want to throw to much money at it...being my first trade and all with options. I just don't know how much to throw at a trade like this. I don't quite understand if it would be worth my while to throw 5k or 10k...more or less. I just want to make sure i have a good exit strategy in case it doesn't pan out as we thought.
Thoughts?
thanks...
keller
Can we get a link to his posts?
Thanks!!!!!
Keller
I hate to see you leave. Can you tell the rest of us how to reach you? I may need to borrow some eggs or flower some day.
keller
Hey Pinkster, i would be interested in seeing the previous 10 signals or has far back as you can go. I am always looking to learn something new.
Thanks
Keller