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Thanks SSK for tracking VMI. Here I want to share with everyone a brokerage that might be helpful in implementing this index in a cost-effective way:
http://www.folioinvesting.com
How it works:
You pay a monthly ($29/m) or yearly ($290/y) subscription fee and your trades will be executed only at 11am and 2pm for free. They call these two available slots as "trading windows". For example, you can create a "folio" that contains the 100 VMI stocks (*limitations here as discussed later*). Then you can invest $1000 in this folio. The system will automatically divide $1000 into 100 stocks (according to the weights you specified for each stock; let's assume equal weight at the moment) and execute your order at next available 11am or 2pm window for free. This scenario will be very costly to implement at any other brokerage.
The advantages:
1. Very suitable for managing a large group of stocks, an index such as VMI, with a very low cost, especially if you only want to invest a small amount of money.
2. Very suitable for mid/long term investment that does not care about daily price fluctuations.
3. You have the option to place direct trades that are sent to the market immediately (regular market/limit/stop orders) if you don't like the window trade. Each direct trade is only $3.
4. A lot of other benefits, but I won't enumerate here. Go to the website to learn more if you are interested.
Limitations:
1. The platform does not support OTCBB and PK stocks. Out of the 100 VMI stocks, only 65 stocks can be traded using the above window trading. This is the most significant limitation to manage VMI using this platform.
2. The displayed quotes are delayed quotes. (Real time quotes are used for executions though.)
Disclaimer: This is not an ad and I will not post it again. The listed advantages and limitations are my personal opinion only. Its sole purpose is for information sharing.
CNEH. what is the matter of the 7.5M gift from Mr. Wang and his mother? Anybody can share some thoughts? I don't believe such a thing unless it is donated to charity.
I think China growth will not slow down until after the 2008 Olympics.
Len, I believe you missed the link to my Nsomniac challenge post:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=26098556
Nsomniac challenge
I'm a first time VMC Pick Six participant although I have been around this board for three years. I have followed Mr. Sheep for a while and it is no surprise to me that I ended up as the second sheepish person in Lotto 8. Most of my picks have been discussed a lot and they need no more explanation. Having said that, here are my six picks and a short rationale for each:
CAGC.OB Stock was down significantly with no news (probably because of 10M registered shares being dumped). Last ER was excellent. The price has significant multi-year support. With CEO guarantee net income of 8.35M in 2007 and the results of the first 3Q, for the last Q they will make at least 1.27M. With 24.7M shares, the EPS for 2007 is at least 0.34. Assume 30%-50% yoy growth, 2008 EPS 0.44-0.51. With a PE of 10. The stock is worth at least $5.
CKGT.OB According to the RedChip interview last month, the VP said they were looking for earnings of .20-.30/share this year. Considering the company earned .12/share through the first 9 months, that would suggest a big Q4.
VBDG.OB Stock was significantly down from 0.85 to 0.4 (could be end-of-the-year tax loss selling). CEO bought 10K shares at 0.51 at the end of Nov. 4M PP price 0.6 and another at 1.5. 1M order for EZ-folds step stool in Nov. Strong rev and earning growth (50-70%). It is difficult to value this stock because of net loss. My conservative estimate is that the stock is worth at least $1. It needs a great quarter to pump the price, though. Should be a strong buy here and expect great results in 2008.
ZYNX.OB This is a growth story. It hass predictable rev/earning. Given the current forecast, 2008 EPS will be $0.15-0.20. Its minimal value is $2.25 (double candidate). It could be $4-5 in 2008.
AYSI.OB The key is the growth. In terms DD, you cannot beat littlefish on that.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25956150
LTUS.OB Earned 0.05 last Q. With price less than a buck, I will bet on it even without considering any growth.
Fundamental wise, CAGC.OB and LTUS.OB have potential management credibility issue. So we should be cautious about that.
I own all six stocks and some other sheepish stocks, such as EGMI.OB, UTVG.OB, and CNEH.OB.
Len, my top pick is VBDG.OB. Thanks
SSKILLZ1, I would appreciate it a lot if you can share your list with us.
That is EDU.
from sec filings:
We currently have two named executive officers, Yu Chang, our Chief Executive Officer, President and Secretary and the beneficial owner of 56.8% of our stock, and Lijun Peng, Chief Financial Officer and Controller. Our Board of Directors, on which Mr. Chang serves, has historically determined the compensation to be paid to Mr. Chang and Ms. Peng based on the Company's financial and operating performance and prospects, the level of compensation paid to similarly situated executives in comparably sized companies and the contributions made by Mr. Chang and Ms. Peng to the success of the Company.
So she is paid.
Wade, I have to tell you that I often don't agree with your analysis but your performance is just so impressive. You beat the crack out of me in the past two years in terms of performance. Congratulations! I should look closer at myself and see what is wrong. Keep up good work!
Can someone please recommend some quality free investment newsletter? I hear John Mauldin is one of them. Anyone else? Thanks a lot.
Unfortunately I own all three.
If the market really starts selling, I would be very happy because I already shorted and my shorts/puts are still under water. I have some long positions too. They didn't make me money either. Sigh...
Len short Q's
QQQQ already fell a lot compared with SPY or DIA. Do you think which one is a better candidate if you think the overall market is bearish? Thanks.
hweb2. HIHO. That's right. take the currency gain off earnings results in .09. Given a PE 10 plus 1.6 cash, I think the stock worth .36 * 10 + 1.6 = 5.2 not considering growth or other income. So 5-6 is a reasonable target price. It is undervalued right now but not significantly undervalued.
I have the same feeling. It is very stange to me that the market has been so strong recently. I was very bearish. But the recent rally confused me. I was even questioning myself: am I wrong? It seems to me that for whatever reason the market just found one execuse after another to rally, no matter how bad the news were. That's not normal. Two possible explanations: a) manipulation b) irrationalness
The following formula might help:
If you know how to short the market, short the market and keep your time frame relatively short (3-4 months).
Sell all your winners to preserve gains.
If you are so eager to buy something, only buy those super undervalued stocks, not growth stocks.
If you cannot pick the above stocks, stay with cash.
RGEN insiders filed form 4:
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_sec.asp?mode=&kind=&symbol=RGEN&symbol=&symbol=&...
The option gives each of the four directors the right to buy 15000 shares at $3.38 starting Sep 15, 2006 through Sep 15, 2015.
very bullish
research: I am very frustrated with TGB too.
I heard from yahoo message board that some of warrants can be exercised at $.80. But I could not find evidence on TGB website.
Here is what I found about warrants execise price.
5M for CND $1.66
8M for CND $1.40
Ronald W. Thiessen, President and CEO of Taseko Mines Limited
(TSX Venture: TKO; AMEX: TGB) announces that Taseko has reached agreements in principle with a number of accredited investors to privately place up to 5,172,500 equity units in its capital, at a price of CDN$1.45 per unit, for gross proceeds of up to CDN$7,500,125. Each unit consists of one common share and one common share purchase warrant exercisable to purchase an additional common share at a price of CDN$1.66 for an 18 month period from the completion of the financing, expected in February.
In another PR:
Taseko has privately placed 8,000,000 units in its capital at a price of Cdn$1.25 per unit to a number of accredited investors, for proceeds of Cdn$10 million. Each unit consists of one common share and a share purchase warrant exercisable to purchase an additional common share at price of Cdn$1.40 for a two year period from the completion of the financing on September 29, 2004. The common shares included in the units and the shares issuable on exercise of the warrants are subject to a four-month resale restricted period from the date of completion of the financing. The common share purchase warrants are subject to an accelerated expiry if, at any time following the expiration of the four-month hold period, the published closing trade price of the Taseko common shares on the TSX Venture Exchange is equal to or greater than Cdn$2.80 for any 10 consecutive trading days.
TGB, researcher59: EPS for Q2 was -$.01, not $.08 as you said. EPS for Q3 was $.065 because of dilution. The diluted # of shares are 125M, not 102M. Q4 EPS estimate was lowered to $4-5c.
Don't feel right about TGB.
The recent report is in contradiction with the big insider selling.
http://www.tasekomines.com/i/pdf/FA-jan272005-TKO.pdf
I think the report is just a trap to help insiders dump stocks. But the report was posted on jan 27, when most selling was done.
Emm... confused
TGB/TKO.V insider transaction since last Dec.
https://www.sedi.ca/NASApp/sedi/SVTItdSelectIssuer?locale=en_CA
Not only one insider is selling, several of them are selling since Dec:
Cousens, Scott Dibblee (sold 657,045, now has 115,866)
Mason, Jeffrey Robert (sold 56,700, now has 143,345)
Thiessen, Ronald William (sold 175,200, now has 283,346)
Oil price is rebounding. Why are oil stocks still falling?
Yes, yesterday my portfolio was down nearly 5%. Today already down another 4%. Like some of you, I'm heavily loaded with oil stocks. I'm feeling a little pain, too.
BTW, I'm new to this board. Say hi to everyone!