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The issue of them being the agent is understood, but they don't seem to have a history of doing these type of deals. It could be a new business for them and their website states they have a natural resources group that has teamed up with a subsidiary of the Dubai Islamic Bank, so this could very well be the lender. Just some of the characters within Legend was a bit of a turnoff, so I will be waiting until I see the financing is in place. Of course the price may have very well run up by that time.
AMC.TO/AXSMF – The VMC community has given me some great ideas and I bought into this position last week, albeit a small one. After looking into some of the comments and the stock, overall there looked to be some potential. The one issue that I looked into that made me pause and recently made me sell out of my position was regarding Legend Securities and I lost a couple hundred bucks on the spread. The big question was who are these guys? So I dug around a little bit and saw various articles, but not sure if they are capable of financing this $60mm. Just some red flags around some of the players at Legend, which gave me reason to pause. I enclosed a link for a search on Legend. They are a real broker/dealer registered with SEC/FINRA, but this financing seems outside the norm. There were some other articles about Legend on Deal Breaker and Forbes, providing similar information to the link I enclosed. Why would AMC select these guys from over 20 different proposals? It would have been nice if the $60mm was from a more established player. In the past they have dealt with some more reputable and financially capable firms. If someone comes up with other information and thinks Legend’s $60mm is a reality, I would love to hear more. Maybe I'll get back in, but didn't pass the sniff test here.
http://www.thefinancialinvestigator.com/?p=64
Depending on where an investor thinks we are in the economic cycle, than 10 is definitely plausible. I'm a bit skeptical of a V shaped recovery, so I may be a bit hesitant to see the valuation achieve a full 4-5 times P/CF. Looking forward to the report in July!
What may be an appropriate P/CF measure? Is it reasonable to expect 4-5 like some of the larger more diversified paper product cos?
The game card was annointed lottery product of the year. It was not a half-baked idea. SGMS stole the idea, blocked EGMI from selling it. The company got some traction w/ some other marketing deals. Steinberg came on and liked the idea. He bought heavily into the company. After his death, probably some infighting. Either LC and/or KD & crew were getting greedy. They couldn't play nice and build something for us shareholders. If it was all just a ruse than, they really pulled a fast one on us. Either way, I've trimmed my holding significantly. A portion before the bad news and some after. Still riding some ultra low cost shares in the teens, but what a long strange trip it has been.
A lot of warrant conversion people here as well, so annual return on those warrants have been big. I sold 20% of my position in the last month to fund some trading shares in Tembec, a Canadian pulp prodicer. Will look to buy back in fairly soon. Hopefully good things in store w/ the next Q. Really hope they use that cash wisely, it's a big chunk of their assets.
Well 10k is only about a month away. I've reduced my position by a lot because of the liquidity. I went from 1/2 to about a 1/3 of my previous position. Haven't sold any in over a month. I don't have high expectations, but looks like that may be priced into the stock.
Two of the big investors in EGMI in the past was Trafelet and Pequot. Two big hedge funds. One subsequently blew themselves up, but Pequot is a reputable shop. Guess they didn't do enough dd as well.
It looks like we are trading at 10 times PE based on fourth qtr earnings and current share count of 41mm shares. Based on the conf call and the additional 15% CPM growth already baked, this should be at 15 PE for sure. VISN has been butchered lately, so looks like CCME should be the one given the stronger market multiple.
CCME financials are flowing through to Bloomberg when I just checked. This is going onto the screens of institutional investors now! The potential of this investment is very good given the multiple avenues for growth. Luckily I made this my biggest position by converting fully into the stock with the warrant purchase. Sort of soothes the pain from EGMI's decline as I sold about 20% of my EGMI to buy into CCME, before its recent downward spiral. EGMI was previously my largest position. Kudos to Drex for bringing this to my attention initially.
Kudos all around for cl001, Digitech & Bobwins and other IAE contributors. You guys have helped me find some winners like LIM.TO and PBG.TO. I haven't posted much on IAE, but I did like what was posted and followed you guys into the investment. I am not a commodity expert, but liked the sound fundamentals provided by the opportunities in the oil production sector. The opportunity looked very compelling. The recent moves in IAE, CCME and OGC in my portfolio has started to make up for the implosion of EGMI. IAE is now up to 23% of my portfolio, CCME 34% and EGMI now down to about 4% (from over 50%+).
I'm in the middle of learning a lesson on this one, due to my inaction. This became an over 50% portion of my portfolio. Luckily, I lightened up a bit, but I could have locked in much larger profits. Ironically, I was looking to reassess after this March's financials. Looks like these might not be coming out for sometime. The investments were always peculiar to me, but the cash didn't seem like something that could be faked. Still holding through this, but now below my cost basis. Including the shares I did sell, maybe about breakeven. Getting very close to my initial buy-in price. Never thought it would go back this low.
At least I'm making a bit on some of my other holdings...
Let's not forget that they were involved with Scientific Games. I don't think this is a complete fraud, but anything else is pure speculation. I do have to say, this board has really devolved into a lot of nonsense lately. I can't even keep up.
I always liked the fact that they were able to generate significant cash. Hard to fake cash in an audit. Don't know how bad it could be, but maybe with how they value their investments or the previous NOL's.
This is a stinger. At least I lightened up a little bit and most of my buys were really low. It will be interesting to see what happens. Is it just accounting related issues? If the company's future outlook is intact, than is their possibility this will still run? The only certainty is I'm taking a blood bath when this opens.
Precisely the reason I have this as my largest position.
Interesting article about potential for wage increases in China. Good for domestic spending. Good for advertising dollars. Good for CCME.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUcY9RV8zvbw
mid-March can't come soon enough for me. CCME my biggest position.
He went on to say, "The proceeds generated from the warrant exercise have significantly strengthen our financial position which should enable us to further increase our market share and geographic coverage through agreements with additional bus operators and provides capital for M&A opportunities which we are exploring." Jacky Lam, CME's Chief Financial Officer stated, "As anticipated, we believe our 2009 fourth quarter was exceptionally strong. We expect to announce 2009 fourth quarter and year-end results in mid-March."
Sure there may be some disappointment with Poken based on the wired review, but remember that Poken is an X-factor. It is not even factored as part of the growth currently in estimates.
I have lightened up a bit over the past few weeks, but only because my new largest position is CCME. I had a bunch of warrants converted and needed to raise a lot of cash in a non-marginable IRA account, so stocks had to be sold. My EGMI suffered some collateral damage, but is still my second largest position. I sold about 25% of my position.
Just did my conversion yesterday. Converted 100% of it to CCME shares. Awaiting delivery of my shares. Now my largest position.
What a great platform for a marketing product. On top of that, I like this the best: "EGC will be showcasing POKEN at two significant events at Sundance, Fred Segal Fun Village at the Yard Gifting Suite and the Main Street Carpet Lounge & Green Suite Sponsored by Bravo TV. As in previous years, Village at the Yard will continue to serve as a destination for brands to showcase and introduce original concepts. The Fred Segal Fun suite is an official sanctioned hospitality suite of Sundance 2010 and is the largest suite at the festival with an invite-only event including celebrities, filmmakers, media and industry VIPS."
This means they won't be a sideshow product, but squarely in the middle of the action. I'm duly impressed!
I've actually halved my position over the last several months or so. Liquidity was just non-existent and I took my 20%+ L/T gains. My overall positioning has been to get out of less liquid issues. Company dynamics has changed little, but smaller gains in Freedom60 have been disconcerting.
I haven't exercised one share of my warrants yet and happy to see the price increasing. My plans are to convert my entire position into stock. CCME will become my largest portfolio position at about 55% of my portfolio. I have actually sold a portion of my current largest position (EGMI at about 50%) and some other smaller holdings to fund my warrant conversion. All told my two largest positions will become 90% of my portfolio. A fairly scary number, however most of the increase is due to gains on my investment and partially leverage from warrants. I may have to pare down CCME more in the future, but only if it closes the value gap compared to its competitors. For myself that will be anywhere in the 20's or 30's.
Certainly agree there. This stock is about 42% of my portfolio. I was looking for a serious January effect on this position.
Certainly agree there. This stock is about 42% of my portfolio. I was looking for a serious January effect on this position.
It's alive!!! Nice to see.
Definitely some new issues, though it seems to me the underlying catalysts still remain. The last Q showed a nice rev bump, though I would have liked to see better earnings. Anyone keep a tally of who has been exiting? I'll chime in that I have not sold a share. I would not normally exit unless there is something grossly disturbing. PWEB comes to mind as something that I recently invested in and than after about a week or two further due diligence got out due to grossly disturbing issues. There are issues here, but nothing grossly disturbing yet. If someone feels otherwise, feel free to sling mud. I'm open to the discussion.
TMI: Even if possible to short the warrants, no economic reason to when it is trading below intrinsic value. I would gather a large reason for the increase in the short interest has been people that are long warrants/short stock. Big reason the intrinsic value gap has closed over the past few weeks.
PWEB - On the surface it looked good several months ago and I jumped in. I made a few cents off of it, but I came across your warning and delved in further. History on this was ugly at the Better Business Bureau. Got out immediately. Thanks.
The difference is noted between SGMS and Bally's, but I would imagine as a partner Bally's would want them to succeed. I just really want to see EGMI penetrate the US market given the US is one of the largest gaming and lottery markets. Our absence from that market has been a drag on growth. Kudos to SGMS for railroading us.
Trying to avoid all the negative talk. Price action a bit disheartening. RIP the Lord. 10Q a bit underwhelming, though revenues were nice. I thought the revenue increase would be a catalyst, I guessed wrong. Still sitting tight and waiting.
I think Bally's significance to EGMI is their future plans in US distribution. Bally's is larger than Scientific Games in terms of market cap, so they are a significant partner. Good thing is they are in a entirely different market. I would love to see eventually how they plan to get back into the US lottery market once the SGMS contract expires. Given their initial success in the testing phases of the Iowa and Kansas lottery several years ago, it would be an easy way for them to build a revenue stream. These are certainly unknowns not built into current forecasts. That's why I still have not let go of any of my shares. Its easy to rant about potential opportunity, but the quantity of opportuntities here makes EGMI compelling.
That's why TMI has become one of my biggest positions. I was looking to post this sort of analysis with VISN as a comparable. To me this company has a dominant position and is tracking their growth projections. One of the better investments I have put my money in.
GRVY: I played this for a little bit, but sold out. I don't follow them as closely of late, so will have to go through their latest filing. They have reported decent numbers of late and trade below cash value, but they will have to ramp up marketing expenses. They have slashed these to a minimum, but will have to ramp up as they market the new games and eat into existing cash. I don't have a handle on how much the ramp up costs will be, but if you take a look at past marketing expenses they were much larger. They have a couple of new titles out or on the way out and I think they will be using some of that cash. I'm staying out for now.
Thanks for touting the idea. I'm removing my boardmark.
Keeping my eye on TMI. Out of the three recent warrant plays, this one to me had the most legs.
If I did a nice job. You did a great job. Weren't you in these around .50?
Dumped my entire position. Took my 27.5%. With warrants already above intrinic value, no reason for me to stick around. This for me was purely an intrinsic value play.
No pricing on the common yet?
They probably wanted the IPO to look successful and have it run out of the gate a little. A 7.35 pricing would have been nice, but was certainly a bit rich. I may have gotten a bit greedy here.
Any good examples of that from a new IPO?