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FPP - I don't know. It's got such a low float, and I'm sure there are still people shorting from the first momentum wave in late May (I still have a few hundred shares at $7 from then).
This is obviously just a pump play, but what does a large short interest do to a stock with such a low float? At $7.29 a share, it's at a ridiculous P/E right now, but how far can it realistically go before the momentum ends and it starts its downward spiral.
Regardless, some big players know exactly how to control the pps here. I'd say that a short at $8 or above is money in the bank, but I have to admit that I have no idea how much this manipulation can push the price before it's eventual guaranteed downfall...
Nickel starting to rebound some. BMC seems like a great Nickel play with cash flow, little debt, and nice reserves. Anyone still following BMC (Brilliant Mining)?
Nickel Rises to Three-Week High as BHP Shuts Australian Smelter
By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel rose to a three-week high after BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's third-largest producer of the metal, said it will shut down an Australian smelter and refinery that produces about 2 percent of world supply.
The earlier-than-planned rebuild of the Kalgoorlie smelter furnace will reduce nickel sales by 28,000 metric tons, the Melbourne-based company said today. The Kwinana refinery will be closed during the overhaul.
``It's a positive driver for the market,'' Adam Rowley, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London, said today by phone. ``With the disruption in Australia, nickel is moving to a balance from a surplus.''
Nickel for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as $1,400, or 6 percent, to $24,600 a ton, the highest intraday price since May 22. It traded at $24,595 a ton as of 6:16 p.m. local time.
The Kalgoorlie closure added to concern about supply. Minara Resources Ltd., Australia's second-largest nickel producer, cut its output forecast two days ago by as much as 23 percent. Stockpiles of the metal, used in stainless steel, have fallen 8.2 percent since April 30 to 47,220 tons, according to LME data.
Yeah, I'm back to my average cost of about 3.64. Trying to decide if it's a buying opportunity or if we might see the 3.50's this week. I think I might add 3000 shares tomorrow. We'll see...
Oil: $113
Gold: $825
Dow: 13500
NOG.v - Drilling shows signs of oil, but must be abandoned due to deviation of well and lodging of drilling tools. I'm glad I sold most of my shares at .68 last week. There is still potential here, but there's bound to be some dumping today as a gut reaction to the news...
Preeceville Drilling Update
Monday June 2, 9:20 am ET
WINNIPEG, June 2 /CNW/ - Donald Benson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Nordic Oil and Gas Ltd. ("Nordic" or, the "Company"), today announced that the Company has seen some indications of the presence of oil during the drilling of its first well at Preeceville, Saskatchewan.
"Our site geologist has advised us that he has found an oil film and droplets of oil in the drilling fluid coming over the shaker, and that he has seen some oil staining on samples taken," Mr. Benson said. "Analysis of the stained samples has shown the existence of fluorescents, an indication that oil may be present. Furthermore, our site geologist has also stated that some samples have good porosity."
However, due to the intersection of faults, the well deviated and the drilling tools became lodged in the hole and cannot be dislodged. As a result, the well is being abandoned and the rig will be deployed to the second site where drilling will commence this week.
About Nordic Oil and Gas Ltd.
Nordic Oil and Gas Ltd. is a junior oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and development of oil, natural gas and Coal Bed Methane in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The Corporation is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange and trades under the symbol NOG.
HLSYF - Reported .15eps for Q2 (12/31) less a one-time stock compensation expense (due to milestone met of after-tax profits of > $23m ~ part of merger agreement with HollySys shareholders). Post compensation expense, earnings were just .03 for the Q, but this is a one-time deal.
The gross margins were a bit disappointing at 26% down from 33% prior year. This is mostly due to the mix of work (much more subway system integration projects with gross margins of about 10%) The Co is very optimistic about growing into the Nuclear Power industry where gross margins will be much more favorable. They're also hopeful of new contracts in the rail automation and control industry.
The backlog increased 22% year over year. This backlog does not incorporate a nuclear plant control system project of $97 million, which was announced in July 2007. The Company expects to begin recognizing revenues from this venture later in 2008.
The Company is currently working with its counsel regarding a listing on the Nasdaq Capital or Global Market.
Seems like there's a positive future here, though Q2 didn't knock me over. Hopefully we'll get details on new contracts or guidance on the CC.
TVOC - I also picked up 200 shares at $12. Too bad I had just grabbed 1000 shares at 12.75 earlier.
HLSYF - Thanks for this one, Bobwins. I've been watching for a while now, but decided to buy some before the conference call tomorrow. My hope is to hear more about their contracts and progress with backlog, etc. A Nasdaq listing has got to be a top priority as well. I can't feel comfortable with a stock that only reports occasionally and is just now releasing Q2 (12/31/07) results. Some listing news sure would be a shot in the arm.
Good luck.
TBTC - Thanks for the fire sale tip today, KiK. I've had it on my watch list for a while, but hadn't thought about it lately. When I saw $2, I immediately grabbed 2,500 shares. I wish I would've bought more in hindsight. Hopefully the fire sale was just a hiccup as the 10q looked great. With low volume stocks, one person wanting to exit can really create some havoc.
TBTC...Strange. It touched 1.75 earlier. Why the drastic drop?
I love E*Trade's global trading platform. It's not as robust as E*Trade's US platform, but it is so simple to use. I tried Interactive Brokers last year and was absolutely dumbfounded at how painful it was to convert currencies, fund my account, etc. When they upped commissions, I decided that I'd try E*Trade.
I'm telling you, the currency conversion is seamless. You will have to create a separate account for Global verses US trading, but with one click you can transfer balances between the two. I do have to pay a $19.99 commission on each global trade (verses $9.99 for US trades), but I don't find that unreasonable. You're not penalized for large trades since the commission isn't based on shares purchased, but on a flat $19.99 rate).
As you can see, I'm a proponent of the platform. So much so that I own shares in ETFC, so I'm certainly a bit biased. Take it for what it's worth, but I do find the Global trading platform quite reasonable and user friendly.
So, arnie, the pump is on with NOG. Traders seem to be swooping in and the price touched .76 yesterday. I appreciate the tip with this one and I'm tempted to cut and run if we hit .75 again (it's always better to sell on rumor, right?). Are you selling any, or are you going to wait for results? I might go 50/50. With visible oil seeps, odds are in favor of them finding something. But, oil seeps don't always lead to large oil finds, so I think I will play it safe today and recoup my initial investment. Of course, if we don't get a rise into the .70s this week, I'll probably hold.
Just planning my week and thinking out loud...
I also think we're in for a small correction in the price of oil in the coming weeks. Though the commodity boom is far from over, the parabolic rise in oil will simply have to take a pause and a breather. Now that the Memorial Day holiday is over, I think we'll see some weakening through the early part of the summer until we move closer to the July 4th weekend, then hurricane season. I will re-enter most of my oil/gas positions then.
I'm a bit wacky with this one, but I seriously think that we will see better alternative bio-fuel in the years to come that doesn't put a pinch on our agriculture/food industry. The answer may very well come from algae, but that's just my speculation. There will be a breakthrough at some point. Look at the college kid in Minnesota who already came up with a simplistic process to create bio-fuel using any type of biomass (with no waste ~ see Ever Cat Fuels Mcgyan process in one of my earlier posts) I'm not saying that we're all going to be filling up with algae bio-fuel in the near future, but with all the $'s going into alternative energy, we're bound to see some relief from the dependency on oil and gas in the intermediate future. Whether it be nuclear, hydrogen, bio-fuel advances, solar power, or even wind, we'll certainly get there in the next 5-10 years.
Until then, I will continue to be bullish in O&G. But, I think a correction is in order before we can make another move towards $200 bbl in oil.
FPP - Yep, I owned this one back in 2005 at around $1 or so, so can relate to some point. In fact, I think I created the first FPP (FPPC at the time) board here on iHub (and was the moderator for a while, though we only had a dozen posts or so). It looks like it is gone now, but I was a big FPP fan for a while. I enjoyed profits with both FPP and ASPN at the time, and have fond memories of both.
But, when I saw the jump to $8+ per share, knowing the history of the Co and the fact that it's basically run out of Ray Reaves backyard, I couldn't help shorting the thing. You're right, the low float makes this one tricky, but the thing just doesn't deserve a multiple like it had during the jump to $8. Since 2002, the Company really hasn't grown much, so this is obviously just a momo play in the end. Still, I closed out my short position under $5 today just in case it runs one more time. If it sees $8+ again, I imagine I'll be jumping right back in on the short side.
FPP is also in the green now. I think there's one more late afternoon momentum surge going into the Memorial weekend for these small float jr oil and gas companies. The rationale is that the busy travel weekend will draw down supplies even further, creating more buzz next week. We'll see...
Biofuels - I'm not sure how to capitalize on this, but I have been following a private Co called Evercat Fuels for a few months. They are in the process of proving an entirely new and easy way to create biodiesel from all kinds of biomass. This was created by a college kid in his research class and sounds promising:
http://wcco.com/energy/algae.energy.independence.2.731183.html
I thought it was an interesting read on an alternative fuel method.
Len: Makes sense to me. Thanks for sharing.
Len, just curious...why wouldn't you short an individual stock if there is a near certainty of a stock closing the gap on one of these breakaway gaps? Is it just your investment style, or is it the risky nature of trying to time when the retrace will occur?
You called it perfectly yesterday and would've made a nice 20%+ gain on a short play. I'm not sure if the energy momentum wave will push FPP right back up to $8+ again, but the gap definitely filled yesterday and I think FPP eventually has much farther to go on the downside.
I can't say I have much experience with shorting stocks, but your breakaway gap theory is pretty much money in the bank it seems. Now, where can I find some other stocks that currently fit the criteria...?
FPP - Can you blame him? If I were a director of FPP, I would have sold more than 1/3rd. I bet he'd been kicking himself for not selling more during the last run-up a few years ago. While FPP is a nice company, their reserves, revenues, and underlying fundamentals aren't even close to substantiating an $8 share price.
BTW, thanks to this board, I also jumped in as an FPP "short". I bought 3k shares at $7.55 yesterday and only wish I'd bought more. Still holding because I think we'll see $3 before we see $8 again. I even convinced myself to finally resubscribe as a "premium" iHub member today. So I can finally participate in the Motherboard again!
Take deep breaths and be careful not to pass out. Etrade didn't issue 600m new shares, but merely authorized them. Today's authorization has NO dilutive effect as of yet. I'm sure they will end up issuing some of the shares to help with debt, but the 600m shares authorized simply allows management to issue shares at their discretion (and should be sufficient for many more years to come)
Many companies have a large authorized number. You'll see small companies with hundreds of millions of authorized shares, but maybe with only 10m or so issued. It's up to management to dilute or not to dilute. So, you have to now trust Layton and Co not to abuse their power and issue the 600m shares like candy at Halloween.
I think Layton is responsible and will tread carefully if and when he decides to actually issue new shares. Who knows though. It's the gamble we take with a beaten down turnaround stock.
Thanks! I'll look at OIH. I'm not sure if I really want to short oil/gas or not. I feel like there has to be some sort of near term weakness in oil regardless of whether we end up moving to the speculated $200 bbl or not. But, I've never been good at catching a falling knife, so may stick with what I understand best (jr producers and jr service stocks).
I'm with you. The metrics looked good yesterday. The brokerage business seems to be back on track and is leading the way with new accounts, etc. I'm very excited for the prospects here. Any further good news (new CFO, analyst upgrade, etc) is really going to be a catalyst to wake up the entire market on the turnaround that Layton is pulling off with E*Trade.
Oil Prices - Anyone believe that we've reached a top in oil prices? I'm typically a bull on O&G and haven't yet blinked in the face of $100+ oil. But, I have to admit, all the articles suggesting "speculation" as a primary driver of oil/gas prices has started to get to me. Consumption really hasn't grown much on a global basis, alternative solutions are starting to become more realistic, and we're starting to see early trends that the fuel prices are causing people to cut back.
I was actually entertaining the thought of buying some DUG (Ultra-short oil/gas ETF) to hedge myself. I still hold a small group of O&G juniors, but I think they're safe investments even if we do see some boe price decreases.
Thoughts anyone?
FMA - I think Jennings Capital had an update out on First Metals this AM. I can't find it on their site, but the poster "tgif" shared it on the RNO board at iHub.
FIRST METALS INC. (TSX-FMA C$1.08) MKT CAP C$
RECOMMENDATION: SPECULATIVE BUY; TARGET: C$2.15
ANALYST: STUART MCDOUGALL
Q1 Results – Excellent Start!
First Metals Inc. has reported Q1/08 EPS of $0.05 and CFPS of $0.11, reflecting one month’s worth of revenue from its Fabie Bay copper mine in Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec. Commercial operations were declared on March 1, with a total of 42,000 tonnes grading 2.56% copper being custom-milled by the end of the period at Xstrata Copper Canada’s Horne mill, for 1.94 million payable pounds of copper, 24 ounces of gold and 766 ounces of silver. Based on recent discussions with mill and mine operating personnel, similar throughput rates were achieved in April, and the target capacity rate of 1,500 tonnes per day is expected to be achieved in the coming weeks. We also note that concentrate grades had improved to 25% copper, versus the March average of 20%, and that recovery rates are now exceeding 92%.
At the nearby Magusi River copper-zinc project, First Metals completed 9,000 metres of a diamond drilling program down to the 350-metre level for mine planning purposes. Another 5,700 metres in 19 holes are planned for Q2/08, and the Company has received a permit to extract a 50,000-tonne bulk sample for metallurgical studies. Several consultants have been engaged to assist with the deposit’s technical and economic study. A resource update is scheduled for completed in Q2/08.
Mineralization at Magusi River is divided between a zinc-rich lens and a copper-rich lens hosting a combined Inferred Resource of 2.74 million tonnes averaging 1.87% copper, 3.28% zinc, 0.92 g/t gold and 24.97 g/t silver. If substantiated, and the excellent resource conversion rate at Fabie Bay lends support to this eventuality, this could translate into an additional five year’s worth of production.
Survey:
I'd vote to keep as is. I didn't even know there was a Food and Ag board, and simply don't have any interest in researching these stocks. While the overlying commodity prices are a like driver for all three categories, the methods, metrics, trading multiples, etc. can be very different. I'd prefer to have the boards separate. But, as Monty said, I'll stick around regardless.
First Metals (FMA.to) Reports on Q1 - Achieved 1 month revenue of $6.9m and eps of .05/sh (other 2 months offset by deferred development costs since commercial production had yet to be achieved)
First Metals Reports Profitable First Quarter on One (1) Month's Commercial Production
Monday May 12, 12:28 pm ET
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - May 12, 2008) - First Metals Inc. (TSX:FMA - News) is pleased to report its First Quarter Results for the period ended March 31, 2008.
During the Quarter, the Company achieved $6,875,544 in revenues compared to $14,491 in the same period in 2007. During the period under review, the Company generated $1,774,832 in net income, equal to $0.05 per share. During the first quarter of 2007, the Company reported a net loss of ($591,554), equal to ($0.02) per share.
As discussed in greater detail in the Management's Discussion and Analysis, which has been released simultaneously with the Financial Statements, the achievement of commercial production on March 1st, 2008 means that the quarter's results include one month of revenues and related costs of production, (the previous two months of net revenues being set off against deferred development costs) but three months of overhead expenses. On a stand alone basis, the month of March showed a net profit of $2.1 Million.
Production for the month of March averaged 1,354 tonnes per day (tpd), exceeding for the first time 60% of the average design capacity of 1,500 tpd. As further modifications and improvements to the mill are completed, we look forward to design capacity being achieved. Recoveries being achieved at the mill continue to improve and are now at 92.6%.
C.E.O. Richard Williams commented that "copper prices are now in the vicinity of U.S.$ 4.00 per pound and a significant number of forecasters are suggesting that further price increase may be seen over the balance of the year. It is gratifying to see that our deliveries are increasing at such a favourable time. Should copper prices sustain the current level, we should see FMA's profits increase significantly with increased production."
First Metals Inc. is a copper producer and is currently advancing its second project, The Magusi copper, zinc, gold and silver deposit, located 1.2 kilometres away from its Fabie Bay Mine. The Company has approximately 42.7 million shares issued and outstanding.
I agree. Although the shorting is still out of control, I think we all realize that etrade isn't a near-term bankruptcy candidate. The ceo seems to be very forward thinking and is quite successfully pulling etrade out of its tailspin. As long as confidence remains on the brokerage side of the business (ie new accounts), etrade is going to strengthen considerably over the next few quarters.
Etrade is simply the best trading platform for me. Because I like to buy Canadian Jr's (O&G and miners), their Global Trading platform makes the difference for me. I'm sure others recognize the superior platform as well.
NR today. This could be a very big deal since it dramatically increases their distribution ability. It's a great start in expanding the brand name in the upscale markets.
Artisanal Premium Cheese Signs Distribution Agreement with Baldor Specialty Foods
May 1, 2008 08:30:06 (ET)
NEW YORK, May 01, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- American Home Food Products (AHFP, Trade ), currently doing business as Artisanal Premium Cheese, today announced that it has signed a distribution agreement with Baldor Specialty Foods, one of the largest distributors of fresh produce in the Northeast.
Under the terms of the agreement, Baldor will utilize its 165 truck fleet to distribute Artisanal Premium Cheese to its customer network, including fine restaurants, hotels and caterers from Philadelphia to Boston. Artisanal will serve as culinary advisor to Baldor's new high-end cheese division and will train Baldor's sales professionals on plating, cutting and pairing Artisanal Premium Cheese to enhance customer experience.
Daniel W. Dowe, President and Chief Executive Officer of Artisanal commented, "This agreement is an excellent step in the execution of our market segment expansion plan to gain further exposure and entry into premium food retailers. The joining of our selection of more than 200 international, premier quality artisanal cheeses with one of the most respected, best-in-class food distributors creates a strong and mutually beneficial alliance."
Kevin T. Murphy, Chief Executive Officer of Baldor Specialty Foods stated, "We have built our business by sourcing the finest and freshest produce available worldwide. As we establish our cheese division encompassing the highest end of the cheese market segment, it makes sense that we work with a company like Artisanal, whose knowledgeable staff and extensive selection of gourmet, artisanal cheese will enable us to provide fine quality cheese to our premium customers."
About Artisanal Premium Cheese
In August 2007 American Home Food Products, Inc. acquired 100% of the ownership interests in Artisanal Premium Cheese. The Company operates in the specialty cheese market in the United States. The company markets and distributes a line of specialty, artisanal and farmstead cheese products, as well as other related specialty food products under its own brand to food wholesalers and retailers, as well as directly to consumers through its catalogue and Web site, artisanalcheese.com. American Home Food Products, Inc. is based in New York, New York.
DPDW - Well, when you own 150,000+ shares as Hank does, I guess it's hard not to be sensitive about the stock. I also think littlefish offers some excellent DD and am thankful for his postings.
I don't own DPDW (although I contemplated it), but am pulling for it to skyrocket. It's already had a nice move, and I hate I missed out. Then again, I did pretty well with my E*Trade purchase in the 3.40 range a week or so ago, so I can't complain :)
Serica (SQZ) update - Seems their Kambuna development is right on track! I also liked the fact that the Kambuna #4 well just drilled encountered sands with net pay of 107 ft which was considerably better than the #3 well by 26 ft. Obviously, the reserves didn't change (yet), but it's nice to see a large net pay area. Also, the average gas sales price for Kambuna is now expected to be 10% higher than that reported in the reserves report, which is great news.
Serica Energy plc ("Serica" or the "Company") - Kambuna field development wells completed
LONDON, Apr 25, 2008 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX News Network) --
Serica Energy plc (AIM & TSX-V: SQZ) provides an update on development activities in the Kambuna field, offshore North Sumatra, Indonesia.
Serica has completed drilling the Kambuna No.4 development well. Kambuna No.4 is a deviated well drilled from the wellhead platform at the Kambuna No.2 location in the north of the field to a subsurface location 2,180 metres to the south of Kambuna No.2. It has been drilled to a total depth of 7,408 ft true vertical depth below mean sea level ("TVDSS"). The well entered the target Belumai reservoir at a depth of 7,140 ft TVDSS and encountered gas-bearing sands over an interval of 115 ft with a net pay of 107 ft (66 vertical ft). The Belumai reservoir in Kambuna No.4 was 26 ft higher than at Kambuna No.3.
This completes the drilling phase of the Kambuna development. Over the next few weeks, initial production tests will be carried out on the three development wells and they will then be shut in while the development works continue. These works include the installation of an offshore and onshore pipeline and some onshore production processing facilities. Production is scheduled to commence at the end of this year.
Serica expects to achieve an average gas sales price close to US$6.00 per thousand cubic feet, about 10% higher than that assumed in the reserves report filed on 28 March 2008 on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. The reserves report, prepared before the results of Kambuna No.3 and No.4 were available, estimates that the field Proven plus Probable reserves, on a 100% basis, amount to 29.7 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Serica is the operator of the Kambuna Field and holds an interest of 65% in the project.
ETFC - I bought 7,000 shares at $3.40 earlier this week and have been quite nervous about the trade (it dipped to $3.26, I believe). I was so tempted to sell before earnings when it spiked to $3.62. But, after listening to the CC, the surface negative of a .20 loss was so insignificant compared with the guidance and turnaround success this Co is having.
Once again I'm squirming with a pop above $4 and trying to decide whether I should hold or not. Fact is, I absolutely love their platform and their global trading ability, that I have no doubt that I'll remain a customer for a long time to come. Why not make money off the stock too, I guess. My fear is that E*Trades large short positions will drive this one back down regardless of its turnaround success. Anyone have additional thoughts?
FSLR...I probably got carried away with my doomsdaying on FSLR. I just think that the Co is a bit ahead of itself right now, and will certainly face stiffer competition and higher costs in the near future. The market (ie Cramer, Fox News) are all piggy-backing over themselves to tout First Solar's "cheaper" technology. The use of cadmium telluride has historically been much cheaper than the traditional silicon-based cells, and has positioned First Solar to have much better profit margins.
What they don't mention, is that the cost of tellurium has almost tripled since January. Tellurium is one of the rarest metals on earth.
Here's the only pricing chart I could find:
http://bp1.blogger.com/_iNUBM9s1JW4/R_xtyVvC1VI/AAAAAAAAABs/OBqZW-KwWgg/s1600-h/Te_12m.JPG
With a supply crisis (one would assume anyway since there is very little "hard" supply data to be found for tellurium), and drastically increasing costs, I have to wonder how this will affect First Solar in the future. Their costs are bound to rise.
I guess it doesn't matter though. As long as FSLR remains a "darling" on wall st, sp will continue to grow. That's why I dropped my short position until sentiment changes a bit.
BTW - I'm out of FSLR today (my small short position). I only made $100 on the deal, but it seems like it has a little more run in it before the inevitable collapse.
I agree. The problem is, there really is very little in the way of inventoried data for tellurium. Most companies don't publish figures on their production. There are really only a few who market CdTe or Cadmium Telluride (VNP.to being the one that provides most of First Solar's supply as far as I can tell). CdTe is what First Solar uses in its panels.
Tellurium is one of the rarest metals on earth, just behind the PGM's. The chief source of tellurium is a by-product of copper electrolytic refining (not leeching). Until lately, the refining of tellurium hasn't been real cost effective. (With $4 copper, why bother with a low cost by-product?). So, there hasn't historically been much incentive for a copper producer to also produce tellurium.
I'm by no means an expert on the matter, and its quite possible that First Solar has plenty of CdTe supply. Although they haven't disclosed any supplier (other than VNP), who knows what kind of agreements are in place. So, this could be a non-issue for First Solar...or not.
But, regardless, the price of tellurium is rising dramatically based on the only chart I've been able to find. It's obviously demand related to solar technologies and electronic applications (memory, CD's, etc.)
http://bp1.blogger.com/_iNUBM9s1JW4/R_xtyVvC1VI/AAAAAAAAABs/OBqZW-KwWgg/s1600-h/Te_12m.JPG
I'm trying to find other tellurium producers, because that may be a better investment than shorting First Solar. I just don't know. If the price of CdTe continues to rise, VNP.to might be a good play as well.
If nothing else, I've learned a bit about a metal I had scarcely even heard of before.
FSLR - I'm not a Cramer fan, and lately he has been wrong more than he has been right. That said, there usually is a pop after his recommendations, so FSLR might turn up for a little bit longer.
Long term, I just don't see how FSLR continues at this pace. The demand for CdTE is also rapidly increasing, and costs of tellurium are as well. There simply aren't large areas of supply for the metal, and CdTE is becoming popular with both Solar activities as well as in electronics (it could be a key component to revolutionizing PC memory).
First Solar is a darling of Wall St now. It's very possible that the market will drive it up to $325 or more in the short-term (my shorting of the stock is minimal, btw). But, the luster will wear off at some point as people realize that it's extremely overvalued. I do plan to jump in with both feet (on the short side) when the bubble begins to burst for First Solar.
I'm actually short First Solar (FSLR) right now. This stock has simply exploded recently, and the fundamentals do not support the current price. Also, First Solar uses CdTE (tellurium) in it's solar panels, and the cost of tellurium has quadrupled in the past few months. There simply is no supply. Here's a very interesting article on tellurium supply, First Solar, and the impending demise of this Co. It's a bit of a conspiracy theory of sorts, but the increased costs and tight supply of tellurium are accurate, and First Solar will without a doubt feel the pinch of their raw material costs. I'm assuming that First Solar may be hedged for now, but the price increases in tellurium will undoubtedly come to bite them in the coming months.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/71942-the-tellurium-supernova-has-erupted
Got any more guaranteed future 5 baggers in your list? I'd be interested :) Congrats on SeaDrill!
FMA.to - Got back from lunch and my order for 5k at .83 was filled. There are some nice bargains out there again today.
Okay...now NGG is down 21% to .39. Wow, I'm regretting my purchase already.
NGG.v - Just dropped 13% to .43. I know gold is off quite a bit, but I decided to buy some this afternoon. Any thoughts on why NGG is performing so poorly? Is it simply lack of news on the increase to 3000oz per month? After all, it touched .63 just two weeks ago and was really starting to look strong.