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That explanation makes sense, thanks. So tempting to add shares, but the management story remains so strange.
"Necessarily" is an awful word. The reason should have been fully disclosed.
"last I checked". What data on "all living longer than expected" are you referring to? (anybody?)
Flipper, please elaborate on the what/when/who of the "we"-said partnership with big pharma (not just that Smith said he thinks it would happen). I have become a skeptic that a partnership would ever happen, but I am ready to be a believer again if there is compelling evidence of it.
Anybody know why ARGS is off so much today?
I see they were presenting late morning. Something they said?
That is interesting, wonder if some SAES popped up in the ph3 ongoing, perhaps is behind the screening halt. Good observation on the bars too.
The problem with analyzing her comment is that like everyone she is (or should be) blinded, so that using the term "everyone" about the trial is misguided. Like anybody else, all she should know is that the 240ish number of events milestone may not been reached (by October when the presentation was made), and without knowing more details one can only speculate that the SOC-only group may be doing well. That may be the case "as a group" but there may be not be much statistical significance within that data.
I guess all I am saying is that this is yet another intriguing NWBO clue that leaves bulls and bears clueless.
Thank you for that complete answer.
RK - what happened to your residual cell theory?? Is this no longer a concern to you?
That would be a savvy move, but obviously it's a pipe dream with LP and LG in charge. What's interesting is that there is not a CEO or President of Cognate (not that I could find on the leadership page of their website). I wonder if LP is that.
This is the problem. Without a bona fide partnership with a well capitalized company and a staff devoted to providing to better financial and operational disclosure there remains the risk of the stock going to zero even with a revolutionary treatment. We witnessed this sickening reality with the recent Wainwright offering. I would gladly accept a heavy partnership "dilution" over the constant threat of bankruptcy any day.
NW has little motivation to shell out more, NWBO is down from 5% of his portfolio to <2% and the other 98+% is doing quite well. With still no update on the five-month "screening" halt and not even knowing why it has happened, and seeing a 12mn humiliating capital raise, I would think he just writes NWBO off in his mind, or thinks of it as an odd biotech call option.
This is a sad tale of a revolutionary cancer treatment being mysteriously managed by a perennial pink-sheet company, by people who have proved that they have no ability to build a real company. I now believe it is less than 50-50 that DCVAX makes it into hospitals and ever benefits cancer patients except in rare zero revenue "compassionate" cases.
Sorry dolittle, it's not a short term pinch, they will need to raise again soon and they have no relationships with other brokers or fund managers. They are stuck with just one broker that is the Vince Gigante of Wall Street, and without a financial/IR team their efforts at capital raising is akin to praying to Santa Claus.
Wainwright has been the broker LP and LG relied on pre-NW to rape loyal shareholders via huge price discounts and generous warrants. It is extraordinary that this remains the fallback means of raising capital for them. This management is just so screwy - they would rather go through this masochistic capital raise than develop a partnership with a large pharma. You think they will take 5% of the new $12 million and spend it on a CFO team or IR team that can appeal to more Woodfords? Of course not, 61yo LP and 71yo LG will continue to try to carry the nearly entire corporate workload. I am starting to wonder if their hesitancy about hiring has to do with the need for secrecy about Cognate, et. al. They need to somehow be deposed - they are putting investors at risk and making it less likely that DCVAX will actually become a treatment option one day. At this point, I honestly hope that the attacks from TST and Ph5 get far worse so that those two just give up.
Yes, certainly the raise was for Direct, it will be the first of many new raises that will dilute us all into the wind. If we can only get rid of LP and LG somehow.
Is this brand new? It says at the bottom of this page that the record was processed on December 13th. If so it is certainly is a good confirmation of there being no treatment concerns, and perhaps an acknowledgment of its effectiveness.
Perfect vent.
Please paste the entire FT article so we can properly respond.
He may have just played a game of chicken to compel them to actually appoint an independent board member, to be more open to partnering with a big pharma or consider an outright sale (as I've said on the board before), or maybe consider other things (like hire a real CFO).
I think there is a 70% chance that L shows a statistically significant extension of survival greater than four months.
As hit pieces go, this one is certainly more balanced; I actually appreciate the journalist's update on NW's positive response to LP (which I formerly did not know about).
I disagree, at the end of the day, dcvax has to work to the satisfaction of the FDA. That overwhelmingly trumps all the accusations made in the anonymous report.
Opportunity missed?? DCVAX is in trials, Keytruda is approved. Doctors give approved treatments, that's what approval is all about. If it recurs and he runs out of (approved) options, he could pull some strings and get Direct at MD Anderson.
I think that's an excellent characterization - it has long been run like a private company, and now they will finally have to speed the evolution to a public company with better disclosure, more board independence, perhaps have more critical on-site employees like a CFO (off-site doesn't cut it to me), and even, yes even, quarterly calls. The sooner the better, but to me the key is that it is happening, and that's a good thing.
Excellent find, you should send that to Ronald A. DePinho, M.D.
President of MD Anderson.
Interesting, I appreciate that insight, and it helps me understand now how expense disclosure cannot get too specific. At least, then, NWBO can have a passage in their filings about the "process" of coming to a contractual agreement with Cognate, i.e., is Linda ever "in the room" when Cognate contracts are discussed? If other management are involved, is there a record on what such services generally cost in the market and what premium is required for paying in stock?
I am not interested in fueling more mud-slinging, I am very long. But with the new NW activism, now is a good time to improve on disclosure, for whatever improvement is possible.
I would agree that all the Cognate work is critical, inherently expensive and, in a proper analysis, is probably in line with other developmental immunotherapy companies (probably even much lower per trial patient vs companies like Kite and Juno). But I think the disclosure of how the money going to Cognate is determined and then spent needs to significantly improve, because of the amounts being high (in an absolute sense) and because of LP's high ownership interest in Cognate.
I would not bank too much on the recent addition of this short phrase. But whatever phrase is used, one would think that the FDA gives benefit of the doubt for anything that helps GBM patients with few side effects, even if such benefit is minimal. That said, I remain quite hopeful that the DCVAX benefit is material given everything that's been released to this point, by NWBO and other biotechs that have discussed experience with DC-type treatments.
"Orphan disease" is in both, so not sure what you mean by it being added. Otherwise, an interesting catch; problem is that this adds to the whole NWBO uncertainty headache, at least for me.
The whole mgmt thing is just one of her bogus crutches. Part of the pseudo science blather that makes real scientists scratch their heads and chuckle.
The ample results for DCVAX to date has always made every other treatment look pathetically weak and toxic. It is good to have another perspective on its relative strength during this trying period. Thanks.
Thanks much TC. So not suspended from the board, but from his current job, and the suspension is days before NW starts the new activist role.
So like others I am bewildered as to why NW would take the radical path he is taking, which could seen as self defeating to someone who has so many millions of equity at stake. Perhaps he is putting LP into a corner so that she is more open to a company sale at a not-so pie-in-the-sky price.
That is an amazing find Senti, and is great to know as we continue to wait, and wait, and wait...
People are saying that Malik has been "suspended". I do not see any announcement about this so any link to it would be appreciated.
The latest proxy statement shows on page 13 that the 10.56 options do not expire until June 2018 (not sure how beartrap thought they expired sooner). Financially this exercise price still holds out great upside for management if there is ever significant good news and I would not think they care about repricing them down before 2017, and I would think the company can effectively recruit with options at this exercise price.
We all feel a sense of desperation. This is a tough time to hold the stock, no doubt, the Phase 3 is being checked out by regulators, and so a binary event is either around the corner, or just months away. In this trying period RK weakened from re-playing old Liau quotes that she now thinks are negative, and is subscribing to some random theory about residual cells that she supposedly believes is some kind of misappropriated smoking gun information. In reality, she buckled from the pressure and sold. I am at least glad she fessed up to what the secret information was, so that now I can have a Happy Thanksgiving.
It's part of the pseudo-science propaganda. Say there's no way that a treatment can work, throw out terms like log-kill, freeze-thaw and lymph-node jumping, point to old quotes that you purport are negative but are in reality innocuous and largely irrelevant, link to one of a thousand old science white papers that you think are smoking guns but in reality can be easily disputed by a plethora of the other white papers, then hope for the best.
OMG, there is absolutely NOTHING in this legacy presentation that could possibly present material doubts on the hands-down incredible results we have seen to this point for Direct and L.
How an amateur biologist like you can let a theory of some un-powered residual cells, plus some non-negative vague comments of several years ago, negate the results we have seen on the info arm and Direct Phase 1, and drive you to sell 100% of your position at a recent bare-bones price, then go back on this board and reveal this like it was a scientific breakthrough, is simply mind-boggling. My advice - buy a few out of the money calls in case your residual cell theory does not hold up perfectly.
Let's be clear, this is not LP's own title for her specific 15 minute conference slot on the 26th, it is the topic overriding slots of five different speakers (including her). Her specific title is "Industry Perspective". So I would advise not running out and buying tons o' calls on this (though I hope I'm wrong).