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Glad you did well with AESI .... I've also been trimming my O&G related holdings. Oil prices may continue to slowly trend lower as suggested by the backwardation of the futures market .....
SBOW, VTLE
SBOW looks like a strong quarter .... adj EPS of $2.09 beat analyst estimates for $1.58. Free cash flow was strong allowing a pay down of debt. The derivative loss was expected since crude oil prices rose from $72 at year end to $83 on 3/31/24, hence the mark to market writedown of their future period hedging position.
The big wildcard remains oil prices which have been falling recently -
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Plummet-3-on-US-Inventory-Build-Inflation.html
Market Commentary -
briefing -
Going into Fed Chair Powell's press conference, the market was nervous about the possibility of Fed Chair Powell sounding more hawkish than he did at the March FOMC press conference. The key thought around that nervous feeling was that Fed Chair Powell would connote the notion that it is increasingly possible that the Fed will elect to raise rates further.
He said (and we quote): "I think it's unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. I would say it's unlikely."
The fact that the stock market and the Treasury market rallied initially on that acknowledgment should come as no surprise. It was (relief) music to their ears.
From our vantage point, Fed Chair Powell worked hard to shoot down the prospect of another rate hike, sticking instead to the view that the Fed will stick with its current policy stance as long as it is appropriate and that a path to cutting rates would follow inflation moving sustainably towards the Fed's 2% target or an unexpected weakening in the labor market.
Fed Chair Powell clarified that a couple of tenths higher in the unemployment rate itself would probably not qualify as a meaningful weakening in the labor market.
By and large, the Fed seems stuck with its current policy stance, which is a byproduct of economic data for a data-dependent Fed that has occasionally run hot, has oftentimes run warm, and has rarely turned cold. Accordingly, it keeps the Fed guessing like the rest of us if the policy stance is truly appropriate or will be revealed in hindsight to be too restrictive or not restrictive enough.
The Fed Chair is convinced that the evidence shows pretty clearly that policy is restrictive and is weighing on demand; however, gaining greater confidence in inflation moving sustainably toward 2%, he said, will take longer than previously expected.
So, the market is stuck with the uncertainty of how long the current policy rate will be in effect, which means it will be stuck with higher rates for longer as an uncertain Fed tries to understand if it has done enough, or needs to do more, to get inflation back to 2%.
The Russell 2000 is up 1.5%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.7%; the Nasdaq Composite is up 0.5%; and the S&P 500 is up 0.2%.
SBOW - here's the stock price history compared to crude oil .... they do a lot of hedging so may fetch above or below market prices in any given quarter -
Date SBOW Oil
20230103 24.99 76.93
20230104 25.84 72.84
20230105 25.92 73.67
20230106 26.17 73.77
20230109 26.51 74.63
20230110 26.28 75.12
20230111 26.01 77.41
20230112 27.54 78.39
20230113 27.37 79.86
20230117 27.85 80.45
20230118 26.4 79.8
20230119 27.01 80.61
20230120 26.74 81.64
20230123 27.56 81.62
20230124 26.17 80.13
20230125 26.54 80.15
20230126 26.76 81.01
20230127 26.68 79.68
20230130 25.26 77.9
20230131 26.27 78.87
20230201 25.09 76.41
20230202 24.73 75.88
20230203 24.37 73.39
20230206 23.48 74.11
20230207 24.75 77.14
20230208 23.98 78.47
20230209 23.24 78.06
20230210 25.42 79.72
20230213 25.46 80.14
20230214 25.83 79.06
20230215 25.64 78.83
20230216 25.52 78.74
20230217 23.77 76.55
20230221 22.64 76.36
20230222 22.88 73.95
20230223 23.51 75.39
20230224 24.84 76.32
20230227 24.94 75.68
20230228 24.62 77.05
20230301 25.45 77.69
20230302 28.86 78.16
20230303 29.38 79.68
20230306 27.3 80.46
20230307 26.15 77.58
20230308 25.92 76.66
20230309 24.82 75.72
20230310 23.63 76.68
20230313 22.59 74.8
20230314 22.42 71.33
20230315 21.61 67.74
20230316 21.88 68.52
20230317 20.98 66.93
20230320 21 67.82
20230321 21.84 69.67
20230322 20.49 70.9
20230323 20.31 69.96
20230324 20.57 69.26
20230327 22.21 72.81
20230328 22.26 73.2
20230329 22.25 72.97
20230330 22.17 74.37
20230331 22.85 75.67
20230403 24.35 80.42
20230404 23.85 80.71
20230405 24.13 80.61
20230406 23.36 80.7
20230410 23.8 79.74
20230411 25.58 81.53
20230412 25.55 83.26
20230413 25.51 82.16
20230414 25.21 82.52
20230417 24.63 80.83
20230418 24.44 80.9
20230419 24.01 79.24
20230420 23.13 77.37
20230421 23.02 77.87
20230424 24.17 78.76
20230425 22.84 77.07
20230426 22.15 74.3
20230427 22.44 74.76
20230428 23.85 76.78
20230501 23.57 75.66
20230502 21.95 71.66
20230503 21.91 68.6
20230504 21.85 68.56
20230505 22.6 71.34
20230508 22.63 73.16
20230509 23.09 73.71
20230510 22.99 72.56
20230511 22.93 70.87
20230512 23.62 70.04
20230515 24.14 71.09
20230516 23.17 70.84
20230517 24.11 72.89
20230518 24.81 71.94
20230519 24.38 71.69
20230522 25.12 72.05
20230523 25.17 72.91
20230524 25.06 74.34
20230525 23.99 71.83
20230526 23.57 72.67
20230530 23.33 69.46
20230531 23.88 68.09
20230601 24.03 70.1
20230602 25.79 71.74
20230605 25.27 72.15
20230606 26.3 71.74
20230607 27 72.53
20230608 26.93 71.29
20230609 26.74 70.17
20230612 25.85 67.12
20230613 26.63 69.42
20230614 26.11 68.27
20230615 26.73 70.81
20230616 27.13 71.93
20230620 26.65 71.19
20230621 27.09 72.53
20230622 26.42 69.51
20230623 25.45 69.16
20230626 26.55 69.37
20230627 27.1 67.7
20230628 28.51 69.56
20230629 28.95 69.86
20230630 29.12 70.64
20230703 28.95 69.79
20230705 28.33 71.79
20230706 27.27 71.8
20230707 29.06 73.86
20230710 29.71 72.99
20230711 31.05 74.83
20230712 30.86 75.75
20230713 31.04 76.89
20230714 29.29 75.42
20230717 29.65 74.08
20230718 31.3 75.66
20230719 31.05 75.29
20230720 31.31 75.65
20230721 31.82 77.07
20230724 32.58 78.74
20230725 33.54 79.63
20230726 33.71 78.78
20230727 33.63 80.09
20230728 34.83 80.58
20230731 35.81 81.8
20230801 34.74 81.37
20230802 34.06 79.49
20230803 36.66 81.55
20230804 37.01 82.82
20230807 38.91 81.94
20230808 39.64 82.92
20230809 39.94 84.4
20230810 39.44 82.82
20230811 39.36 83.19
20230814 41.53 82.51
20230815 40.47 80.5
20230816 39.91 79.02
20230817 41 79.9
20230818 40.94 80.66
20230821 41.99 80.12
20230822 41.61 79.64
20230823 41.83 78.89
20230824 41.45 79.05
20230825 41.79 79.83
20230828 41.9 80.1
20230829 41.7 81.16
20230830 42.13 81.63
20230831 42.78 83.63
20230901 42.6 85.55
20230905 41.95 86.69
20230906 41.8 87.54
20230907 41.99 86.87
20230908 42.12 87.51
20230911 40.99 87.29
20230912 42.16 88.84
20230913 38.48 88.52
20230914 36.64 90.16
20230915 35.02 90.02
20230918 35.65 90.58
20230919 35.36 90.48
20230920 34.4 89.66
20230921 33.02 89.63
20230922 32.91 90.03
20230925 34 89.68
20230926 34.41 90.39
20230927 35.6 93.68
20230928 36.51 91.71
20230929 35.77 90.79
20231002 33.39 88.82
20231003 33.19 89.23
20231004 31.19 84.22
20231005 30.98 82.31
20231006 32 82.79
20231009 32.98 86.38
20231010 34.15 85.97
20231011 33.17 83.49
20231012 33.46 82.91
20231013 34.6 87.69
20231016 35.54 85.26
20231017 36 85.44
20231018 36.27 87.27
20231019 35.84 88.37
20231020 35.26 88.08
20231023 35.23 85.49
20231024 34.51 83.74
20231025 34.15 85.39
20231026 34.1 83.21
20231027 33.53 85.54
20231030 33.57 82.31
20231031 34.1 81.02
20231101 33.48 80.44
20231102 36.36 82.46
20231103 36.45 80.51
20231106 34.25 80.82
20231107 33.15 77.37
20231108 32.57 75.33
20231109 32.08 75.74
20231110 31.9 77.17
20231113 31.9 78.26
20231114 32.5 78.26
20231115 32.52 76.79
20231116 31.44 73.09
20231117 31.8 76.04
20231120 32.39 77.83
20231121 31.99 77.77
20231122 32.36 77.1
20231124 32.46 75.54
20231127 31.53 74.86
20231128 31.58 76.41
20231129 31.81 77.86
20231130 31.81 75.96
20231201 32.1 74.07
20231204 32.6 73.04
20231205 31.3 72.32
20231206 29.31 69.38
20231207 29.59 69.34
20231208 30.55 71.23
20231211 29.95 71.32
20231212 27.35 68.61
20231213 28.14 69.47
20231214 28.55 71.58
20231215 28.53 71.78
20231218 28.36 72.82
20231219 28.59 73.94
20231220 28.02 74.22
20231221 28.62 73.89
20231222 28.83 73.56
20231226 29.62 75.57
20231227 29.11 74.11
20231228 28.75 71.77
20231229 29.08 71.65
20240102 28.61 70.38
20240103 29.1 72.7
20240104 28.16 72.19
20240105 28.1 73.81
20240108 27.86 70.77
20240109 27.39 72.24
20240110 27.22 71.37
20240111 27.28 72.02
20240112 27.5 72.68
20240116 26.21 72.52
20240117 25.84 72.48
20240118 25.87 73.95
20240119 25.7 73.25
20240122 26.14 74.76
20240123 26.35 74.37
20240124 26.82 75.09
20240125 27.64 77.36
20240126 27.36 78.01
20240129 27.19 76.78
20240130 27.8 77.82
20240131 26.56 75.85
20240201 26.31 73.82
20240202 26.19 72.28
20240205 25.99 72.78
20240206 26.44 73.31
20240207 26.54 73.86
20240208 27.21 76.22
20240209 26.54 76.84
20240212 27.49 76.92
20240213 26.34 77.87
20240214 26.13 76.64
20240215 27.7 77.59
20240216 27.91 78.46
20240220 27.49 77.04
20240221 28.05 77.91
20240222 28.1 78.61
20240223 27.43 76.49
20240226 27.64 77.58
20240227 28.59 78.87
20240228 28.45 78.54
20240229 28.39 78.26
20240301 29.79 79.97
20240304 29.48 78.74
20240305 30.73 78.15
20240306 30.66 79.13
20240307 30.56 78.93
20240308 30.77 78.01
20240311 31.34 77.93
20240312 31.72 77.56
20240313 31.94 79.72
20240314 33.41 81.26
20240315 33.92 80.58
20240318 35.15 82.16
20240319 35.45 82.73
20240320 34.97 81.27
20240321 34.75 81.07
20240322 34.67 80.63
20240325 35.34 81.95
20240326 34.43 81.62
20240327 34.69 81.35
20240328 34.14 83.17
20240401 34.36 83.71
20240402 34.47 85.15
20240403 34.42 85.43
20240404 33.92 86.59
20240405 33.77 86.91
20240408 33.89 86.43
20240409 34.44 85.23
20240410 34.82 86.21
20240411 33.82 85.02
20240412 33.07 85.66
20240415 32.35 84.86
20240416 31.84 84.83
20240417 30.01 82.15
20240418 29.67 82.1
20240419 30.06 82.22
20240422 30.15 81.9
20240423 30.53 83.36
20240424 30.74 82.81
20240425 31.45 83.57
20240426 32.03 83.85
20240429 33.18 82.63
20240430 30.72 81.93
FISI +.42 to 17.64, thanks for that in depth post. I joined you with a few shares and have some GTC buy orders placed at lower prices ....
SBOW -.73 to 29.99, the culprit behind the recent weakness is falling crude oil prices, now under $80/bbl, down from near $88 just 3 weeks ago ..... NG prices have also been weak due to a supply glut.
SMCI has a market cap of $50B, HPE is a mere $22B while DELL is $88B ....
HPE, Hewlett Packard Enterprises, has a forward PE of only around 9, so if they snatch some market share from SMCI and become viewed as an AI server growth story, the stock could see a lot of multiple expansion.
SMCI - as I posted a few weeks ago, the AI server business has lower barriers to entry than the AI chip design business - SMCI will be experiencing increasing margin pressure in the coming months. The stock could be a good short term trader, but not a long term hold, imho.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173852229&txt2find=dell
DELL, HP
SMCI after hours range is now 797 to 947 .... with the stock currently at 858. Crazy action over just a few minutes! Who knows where it settles ???
SMCI +77 to 935 after hours after a solid earnings beat and strong guidance .....
INMD -.09 to 17.14, looks oversold. I just added a few shares and sold the June $17.5 Calls for $1.25, so my cost basis on this purchase is around $15.90. Seems like a bargain. Earnings are due out Thursday morning.
SMCI -35 to 855 ahead of the earnings after the bell. Option premiums imply a mean expected move of $121 up or down on the news .... should be interesting.
RITM (11.22) posts strong Q1 results - dividend yield is 8.9% for this mortgage REIT -
PR -
GAAP net income of $261.6 million, or $0.54 per diluted common share
Earnings available for distribution of $233.2 million, or $0.48 per diluted common share
Common dividend of $120.9 million, or $0.25 per common share
Book value per common share of $12.19
TMHC (57.70) out with solid Q1 earnings. New Home orders up a very impressive 29% y/y.
briefing -
Taylor Morrison Home beats by $0.14, beats on revs (57.70 ) :
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.75 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.14 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.61; revenues rose 2.3% year/year to $1.7 bln vs the $1.66 bln FactSet Consensus.
Q2 closings expected around 3,000.
FY24 closings expected around 12,500 and share repurchases expected to reach $300 mln.
PR -
"In the first quarter, our team delivered a strong start to the year, including better-than-expected sales activity, upside to our gross margin expectations, and efficient construction progress that we believe has set the stage for continued success through the remainder of the year. Supported by our diversified consumer and geographic strategy, we delivered 2,731 homes at a better-than-expected home closings gross margin of 24.0%, driving earnings per diluted share of $1.75 and 14% growth in our book value per share to $50. With consistent activity throughout the quarter, our net sales orders increased 29% year over year, driven by a monthly sales pace of 3.7 per community—putting us firmly on track to meet our annual sales pace goal in the low-three range," said Sheryl Palmer, Taylor Morrison Chairman and CEO.
GERN +.43 to 4.22, a six year high after Cowen initiates coverage with a $10 price target -
fly -
TD Cowen initiated coverage of Geron with a Buy rating and $10 price target. The firm says imetelstat is disease-modifying with the most durable transfusion independence it has seen in lower risk myelodysplastic syndromes. The drug also works broadly and can address currently underserved patient populations upon potential approval in June, which is as likely based on the 12-2 FDA panel vote, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Further, success in high-risk myelofibrosis could double imetelstat's opportunity, contends TD.
SBOW +.46 to 32.49, my position was trimmed at April options expiration because I wrote a bunch of covered calls at a strike price of $30. But I'm holding all my remaining uncovered shares through earnings. The stock moves up and down with crude oil prices, so that's the big question .... what will oil prices do in the coming months ???
TDAM to Schwab definitely seems like a downgrade to me. Fortunately E*Trade offers the 4 year analyst EPS estimates changes history that Ameritrade had, but not Schwab. Even Yahoo is better than Schwab with that feature.
Also Ameritrade saves the transaction history going back over 20 years ..... Schwab saves only 4 years ! Cheap.
So before your remaining accounts get transferred over, be sure to download your entire transaction history (to excel) and your account value history.
Supposedly the 10 years of monthly account statements will be transferred over, but I've downloaded all of mine just in case ....
It's gratifying to win this contest for the 1st time. Congrats to North40000 and KnowledgeisKing for strong 2nd and 3rd place finishes.
Thanks to SSK for running these contests.
I'm looking forward to the next contest and will be trying to repeat as champion.
DJT +4.04 to 42.53, the shorts have sure gotten burned recently with the stock nearly doubling in the past 10 days, not to mention the extreme borrow rate they're paying, an astronomic 885% at IB yet no shares are available !
E*Trade has what I'm looking for .... the data on investing.com is available at many brokers and websites. I was looking for historic changes in estimates, not the final estimate and actual EPS. Often estimates trend lower as the reporting date approaches.
Thank you E*Trade !
I have several brokerage accounts .... most are inactive with just a few dollars in SGOV to keep the account open. That way I have access to any research or other data they may uniquely offer.
Fidelity and Merrill don't have the historic analyst estimates data that Ameritrade has, but thankfully Etrade (now Morgan Stanley) has the same data as Ameritrade ! So I can use Etrade for that info.
Maybe it's available for free at Zacks or another website, but I'm not currently aware of any.
I'll miss that feature at Ameritrade ..... I'm checking out where else I might find it for free on the web. Frankly I'm shocked that Schwab doesn't provide any historic analyst estimates .... it's interesting and useful to see how their estimates are trending.
To Schwab account holders - I'm migrating over in two weeks -
One very nice feature at Ameritrade is to be able to check the historic trends in earnings estimates for a particular quarter or year. On yahoo one can go back 7, 30, 60 and 90 days. On Ameritrade one can go back 4 years on a weekly basis .... so loads of detail.
I'm not finding any historic EPS estimate data on Schwab, just the current estimate. Seems rather lame, or am I not looking in the right place ?
ULH is a long term holding for me ..... all my shares are at least a year old with a few three years. "Hold and Mold" in the Bobwins tradition has worked out well in this particular stock. I did trim about 20% of my shares ahead of the report because other truckers were reporting disappointing numbers. Didn't think the logistics business would be that hot. If it's just partly sustainable the stock is still cheap compared to other truckers.
CBBI -.21 to 9.54, yeah those significant declines in various metrics is quite concerning, but book value of $22.49 is rising and might make the bank an attractive acquisition target.
ULH +14.11 to 47.00 after the blowout earnings ..... I had some bids in to add shares in the mid to high $30's, but the stock opened at $40.55, so none got filled .....
You seem to be referring to actual reported earnings .... I'm referring to analyst EPS estimates. Schwab provides only the current estimate and not historical estimates. For example, for AAOI, Schwab shows the Q1 expected EPS as (0.29). I'd like to know what that estimate was 3 and 6 months ago. I'd like to know how the estimate has been trending.
Unless I'm not looking in the right place, Schwab shows NO historic estimates.
Ameritrade has earnings estimate trends going back 4 years on a weekly basis depicted in chart form.
SSK - Schwab earnings estimates trend ..... in 2 weeks my Ameritrade account is moving to Schwab. I'm checking out the website now. It seems to me that Ameritrade has more stock research features.
One very nice feature at Ameritrade is to be able to check the historic trends in earnings estimates for a particular quarter or year. On yahoo one can go back 7, 30, 60 and 90 days. On Ameritrade one can go back 4 years on a weekly basis .... so loads of detail.
I'm not finding any historic EPS estimate data on Schwab, just the current estimate. Or am I not looking in the right place ?
ULH (32.89) posts very strong Q1 earnings. EPS of $1.99 was up 91% y/y and crushed estimates for $0.73. Other trucking companies like JBHT and KNX have been missing estimates, but ULH's logistics business is on fire and more than offset weak results in their other trucking segments.
PR -
In the contract logistics segment, which includes our value-added and dedicated services, first quarter 2024 operating revenues increased 48.4% to $313.5 million, compared to $211.3 million for the same period last year. At the end of the first quarter 2024, we managed 71 value-added programs, including a recent contract logistics award that ramped-up in the first quarter and is expected to be complete by the end of 2024. This compares to 65 programs at the end of the first quarter 2023.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/universal-logistics-holdings-reports-first-203000760.html
AAOI -.38 to 10.47, might be a 2nd half story (of this year) if the Microsoft contract ramps up .... so if AAOI drops to $8 after disappointing Q1 earnings, I'll get interested, but consider it speculative. Now at $10, a lot of pessimism is priced in.
Wade - AAOI - you're getting years mixed up. Six months ago analysts were estimating EPS of $0.41 for FY24. Their estimates have come DOWN sharply since then, not doubled. For FY24 they are now estimating EPS of (0.09), a loss. FY25 estimates were recently introduced and are $0.87, but that's a long way off and highly uncertain.
RUN option premiums are hefty ahead of earnings due out on May 8th, but taper after that .... so lots of volatility is expected ahead of the report. But they're losing lots of money so I'll be on the sidelines.
I do own one solar stock, ENPH, and have been writing covered calls on it and rolling them over weekly. Nice premiums ! And the company is profitable. It's not a cheap stock, but the company has strong long term growth potential.
META down 12% after hours ..... they beat guidance but evidently investors don't like the increased expense and capex guidance - shows how vulnerable these Mag 7 stocks are to a selloff when earnings disappoint in one way or another. This may drag the broader market lower tomorrow. S&P futures are currently down 0.5%.
DRCT - that sounds very scammy !
Most seeking alpha articles are free ..... signup for a free account.
GM +2.18 to 45.39 after a big earnings beat and raised guidance. Forward PE is a mere 4.8
briefing -
General Motors beats by $0.49, beats on revs; raises FY24 EPS and EBIT guidance (43.21 ) :
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $2.62 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.49 better than the FactSet Consensus of $2.13; revenues rose 7.6% year/year to $43.01 bln vs the $41.09 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues raised guidance for FY24, sees EPS of 9.00-10.00 from $8.50-9.50, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $8.89 FactSet Consensus. Co also raised FY24 adjusted EBIT to $12.5 billion - $14.5 billion from $12.0 billion - $14.0 billion prior guidance.
SMCI +37 to 754, here's a bullish article -
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4685274-super-micro-computer-stock-plunges-what-to-expect-q3-earnings
PERI +.45 to 11.32, what about the Microsoft deal that expires on 12/31/24 ? Are you confident it will be renewed or is it too far out to be concerned at this point ? In any case with the Microsoft pricing cuts, it represents a lower percentage of total revenues.
20F -
We are highly dependent on our search services agreement with Microsoft Irelands Operations Limited. (“Microsoft”). We entered into our first agreement with Microsoft in 2010. In November 2020, we entered into a renewed agreement with Microsoft effective as of January 1, 2021 and in effect until December 31, 2024 (the “Microsoft Agreement”). In 2022, our search advertising business Unit, CodeFuel, was named by Microsoft Advertising the “Global Supply Partner of the Year”. The Microsoft Agreement accounted for 37%, 35% and 34% of our revenue, in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively.
RCMT files $100M shelf offering -
If and when they use it in part or full remains to be seen, but the potential is there.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/700841/000110465924050091/tm2410069-5_s3a.htm
Here's an interesting article about the current unique mortgage rate situation. Lots of folks are reluctant move and lock in a 3% higher rate - there's never before been such a broad discrepancy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/15/upshot/mortgage-rates-homes-stuck.html?unlocked_article_code=1.mE0.AH1H.igk4pgTHMiev&smid=url-share