Wadegarret stocks

[wadegarret]

Updated

IART 12000 shares

DAN 9000 shares

Cash neg $9623

[wadegarret]

Sell KINS @ $9.33/Buy DAN @ $10.40

Sell 9000 KINS @ $9.33 = $83970

Buy 9000 DAN @ $10.40 = $93600

Cash neg $9630

[researcher59]

GERN - 3 years is an eternity for investors. I'm very skeptical that doctors will choose Geron's drug, a relatively unknown company, versus the reputable Bristol Myers drug. We'll have to wait 3 years to find out. I sure as heck wouldn't let my money sit for 3 years hoping the story plays out well. In the meanwhile no other company is interested in buying them out since the FDA approval. That's also a red flag. They have loads of experts to evaluate what the company is really worth.

If you're really confident that GERN will be worth $15 in 3 years, then take some cash out of the bank, buy GERN and leave it there !

[wadegarret]

R59- GERN

No doubt, it will take another 3 years or so before they show any strong revenues, as it took Bristol Myers that long to start showing nice revenues for their drug Reblozyl to treat low risk MDS. However Re, you can't overlook the fact that BMY is selling around $2B of Reblozyl per year now, and that even if GERN gets half that for Rytelo(the only other drug in the world to treat low risk MDS outside Reblozyl), the stock would easily be worth $15 or so IMO.

[researcher59]

GERN -.06 to 4.45 has been a good trader for the past 3 months .... repeated 5 to 10% gains by buying at around 4.30, selling at around 4.60.

As for the valuation, it's still a "show me" story. It's a long path to commercialization and profitability. Analyst estimates predict more losses next year followed by EPS of just $0.15 in 2026. Ouch, that's a very long wait for meager profits. So it's trading at 30x FY26 estimates. Hardly cheap and analysts tend to be too optimistic.

[wadegarret]

R59- GERN

I can't tell you how frustrating owning GERN has been since FDA approval in June. I mean the stock was $5.50 that day, and has gone down to around $4.50, and pretty much stayed within $.30 up or down from there for over 3 months. Now to answer your question, I love GERN as a long term hold, but short term it looks dead, plus I get little leverage on it, as it's an 85% margin requirement. Now on the upside potential, I owned GERN because I thought it would get bought out, and if it does I see 100%-125% upside on that day. I also thought they would get a partner by now. However who knows when these events will happen, and in the meantime, I've decided to be in stocks that can go up 50% easily(ie IART & KINS), and they are 40% margin requirements, giving me over twice the leverage. That's why I got out of GERN.

Re, I can't tell you though how unbelievably frustrating it's been playing stocks the last few months, and in fact over the last year as well. I mean I bought KINS 3 weeks ago, after it went from $12 to around $9, and it's pretty much done nothing day after day since I bought, despite having a 6 PE going forward, with 50% eps growth expected for 2025 vs 2024.. Same with IART, when I bought around 10 days ago, and it's done nothing but go down, and now sells for under a 7 PE going forward, vs 25 gf for the sector ! Now I've been in and out of GERN, but for now I'll take the leverage and own more of the short term potential pop stocks. Now I made 25% or so on PSIX, but lost it back watching GERN go down 10% when I owned, and IART 7% over the last week. I also made over 100% on AAOI in early 2024, and lost all of it back with loser after loser, plus I made over 100% on Mar 14 on GERN, and lost all of that back as well on losers. I mean it appears algorithms are set to make sure the small caps go nowhere overall. Hopefully that changes next week when Powell lowers rates.

Now I know Hweb has pointed out a few stocks that went up a lot very quickly, but I didn't get in on on them for whatever reason. Plus you had to get in on those picks the very day or two after earnings, otherwise you missed 90% of the gains. Now that's another thing making it very hard to win. That is, when these micro-small cap stock go up, they go up a higher % than they used to on earnings day, and maybe continue for another day or two a little more. However if you missed that initial surge, these stocks seem to flatten out and go nowhere for weeks or months- sometime still the next earnings report ! In the old days(when I made out a lot), you could miss the initial surge after a good report, and still get in and make out well over the coming weeks, as these stocks would slowly get to fair value. Now it seems you've got to be much quicker, and if you get in even a few days after the earnings surge, you could be sitting on dead money, or even lose week after week after that.

[researcher59]

Why are you completely out of GERN ? I thought that was your favorite stock with a likely buyout at $10 ?

[wadegarret]

Updated

KINS 9000 shares

IART 12000 shares

Cash $7

[wadegarret]

Sell GERN @ $4.29/Buy KINS @ $9.04

Sell 20000 GERN @ $4.29 = $85800

Buy 9000 KINS @ $9.04 = $81360

Cash $4440

[wadegarret]

Updated

IART 12000 shares

GERN 20000 shares

Cash neg $4433

[wadegarret]

Sell GERN @ $4.30/Buy IART @ $17.22

Sell 7000 GERN @ $4.30 = $30100

Buy 2000 IART @ $17.22 = $34440

Cash neg $4340

[wadegarret]

Updated

GERN 27000 shares

IART 10000 shares

Cash neg $93

[wadegarret]

Buy GERN @ $4.42

Buy 27000 GERN @ $4.42 = $119340

[wadegarret]

Updated

Cash $119,247

IART 10000 shares

[wadegarret]

Sell KINS @ $8.73

Sell 10000 KINS @ $8.73 = $87300

[wadegarret]

Updated

KINS 10000 shares

IART 10000 shares

Cash $31947

[wadegarret]

Buy IART @ $17.72

Buy 10000 IART @ $17.72 = $177,200

[wadegarret]

Updated

Cash $209147

KINS 10000 shares

[wadegarret]

Sell SQQQ @ $9.40

Sell 22000 SQQQ @ $9.40 = $206800

[wadegarret]

Updated

SQQQ 22000 shares

KINS 10000 shares

Cash $2347

[wadegarret]

Buy SQQQ @ $9.33

Buy 11000 SQQQ @ $9.33 = $102630

[wadegarret]

Updated correction

Cash should be $104977, not $104866, as I was off on the math in my last post by $110 against me. Also a $1 previous error against me. Here is the correct figures...

Cash $104977

SQQQ 11000 shares

KINS 10000 shares

[wadegarret]

Updated

Cash $104866

SQQQ 11000 shares

KINS 10000 shares

[wadegarret]

Buy SQQQ @ $9.31

Buy 11000 SQQQ @ $9.31 = $102520

[wadegarret]

Updated

Cash $207386

KINS 10000 shares

[wadegarret]

Sell KINS @ $9

Sell 2000 KINS @ $9 = 18000

[wadegarret]

Sell IART @ $17.63

Sell 10000 IART @ $17.63 = $176300

[wadegarret]

Sell IART @ $17.65

Sell 1000 IART @ $17.65 = $17,650

[wadegarret]

Updated

IART 11000 shares

KINS 12000 shares

Cash neg $4564

[wadegarret]

Buy IART @ $18.19

Buy 1000 IART @ $18.19 = $18190

[wadegarret]

Updated

IART 10000 shares

KINS 12000 shares

cash $13626

[wadegarret]

Buy IART @ $19.26

Buy 3000 IART @ $19.26 = $57780

[wadegarret]

Updated

IART 7000 shares

KINS 12000 shares

Cash $71406

[wadegarret]

Sell PSIX @ $19

Sell 3700 PSIX @ $19 = $70300

[wadegarret]

Updated

PSIX 3700 shares

IART 7000 shares

KINS 12000 shares

cash $1106

[wadegarret]

Sell GERN @ $4.25/Buy PSIX @ $19.70

Sell 3000 GERN @ $4.25 = $12750

Buy 700 PSIX @ $19.70 = $13790

cash neg $1040

[wadegarret]

Updated

PSIX 3000 shares

IART 7000 shares

KINS 12000 shares

GERN 3000 shares

cash $2146

[wadegarret]

Sell IART @ $19.03/Buy PSIX @ $19.70

Sell 3000 IART @ $19.03 = $57090

Buy 3000 PSIX @ $19.70 = $59100

Cash neg $2010

[wadegarret]

Updated correction

I did the math wrong on GERN. I had 23000 shares, sold 20000, but showed zero shares. It should be 3000. Here is my updated portfolio...

KINS 12000 shares

IART 10000 shares

GERN 3000 shares

Cash $4156

[wadegarret]

Updated

KINS 12000 shares

IART 10000 shares

Cash $4156

[wadegarret]

Buy IART @ $19.33

Buy 5000 IART @ $19.33 = $96650

[wadegarret]

Sell PSIX @ $19.42

5200 PSIX @ $19.42 = $100.984

[wadegarret]

Updaed

PSIX 5200 shares

IART 5000 shares

KINS 12000 shares

Cash neg $178

[wadegarret]

Sell PSIX @ $19.50/Buy IART @ $19.24

Sell 500 PSIX @ $19.50 = $9750

Buy 500 IART @ $19.24 = $9620

Cash $130

[wadegarret]

Updated

IART 4500 shares

PSIX 5700 shares

KINS 12000 shares

Cash neg $308

[wadegarret]

Buy IART @ $19.10/Sell GERN @ $4.32

Sell 20000 GERN @ $4.32 = $86400

Buy 4500 IART @ $19.10 = $85950

Cash $450

[wadegarret]

Updated- Correction

I had 120,000 shares of KINS listed instead of 12000. Here is my present portfolio

PSIX 5700 shares

GERN 23000 shares

KINS 12000 shares

Cash neg $758

[wadegarret]

Updated

GERN 23000 shares

PSIX 5700 shares

KINS 120000 shares

Cash neg $758

[wadegarret]

Sell PSIX @ $19.10/Buy GERN @ $4.66

Sell 700 PSIX @ $19.10 = $13370

Buy 3000 GERN @ $4.66 = $13980

Cash neg $610

[wadegarret]

Updated

GERN 20000 shares

PSIX 6400 shares

KINS 12000 shares

cash neg $148