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Same thing currently happening with MVCO with a sweetheart deal with a private equity firm.
tmcal
UVE and AOG
I have trading halted for both securities.
Tmcal
INRB - I agree, it is a steal. Did you notice the followon trail of "old" news stories. There was supposedly a July announcement of a new $9.8 million contract. I don't remember seeing that news release,and that would have definitely impacted the stock price for the past 30 days. Last month, I had a private equity buyout of MVCO at a "steal" price. They negotitate sweetheart deals with management and set a price that they know may be approved but represents a huge bargain for the private equity firm.
Tmcal
Len, my predictions are:
Oil--105
Gold--895
DJIA--11,650
Tmcal6
Nsomniyak and KIK Challenge:
AEY--Stock price was beat up after mediocre earnings and better earnings should be announced before the end of this PSL.
CNOA.ob -- Again, Stock was beat up in past month and potential strong earnings should be recognized during this PSL.
DFNS.ob -- Feel like a broken record. Lot of good news and contracts lately and company should finally be able to produce a strong operating earnings quarter.
MKRS.ob -- Many like this company on this board and I am hopeful for both good earnings announcement and large Navy contract announcements during this PSL.
UTVG.ob -- If this one is going to recover, it needs to do it this quarter. This is the only pick I don't own, but made nice returns before the selloff. This one is a crapshoot and I don't know if I would be buying again in my real portfolio.
UVE -- Well known on the Board and a tough one to call during the PSL. Should have some good business and earnings announcement, and will pay a dividend, but the hurricane season uncertainty may keep it depressed no matter what happens with the weather. Maybe this would have been a better pick for the next contest if it survives the hurricane season until then.
Man, I reread this post and wonder why I didn't make better picks for at least the last two. Good luck all.
Tmcal6
The March job loss was "better" than expected, but it is also no surprise that the market just shrugs off the 67,000 downward revision for the losses in January and February. Go figure.
Tmcal
Sweet 16: N. Carol., Wash. St., OK, Tenn, Kansas, Vanderbilt, USC, Georgetown, Memphis, Pitt, Stanford, Texas, UCLA, Conn., Xavier, Duke.
Whatever 8: N. Carol., Tenn, Kansas, USC, Memphis, Stanford, UCLA, Duke
Final 4: Tenn, Kansas, Memphis, UCLA
Finals: Kansas, Memphis
Winner: Kansas, Like that Len?
Tmcal6
Bear Stearns: Well, at $2/share, I guess I was optimistic by a factor of 10.
tmcal
Bear Stearns:
Looks like JP Morgan is planning on an under $30 buyout of Bear Stearns, that the Fed hopes will be announced before Asian markets open in a few hours. How about a quick lottery, I say $15/share.
Here is the story:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080316/jpmorgan_bear_stearns.html
Tmcal6
More Downsizing;;
Just noticed today two new (at least to me) downsizing of food items. I don't buy cans of vegetables often, but I wanted to today, and the cans looked small. The content size of almost all cans were 14.5 ounces. I remember a some had moved from 16 to 15 sometime back, but this was a surprise to me.
Then I noticed the half gallon size of ice cream, which it seemed only a year or two ago, had moved from a half gallon to 1.75 quarts, was now 1.5 quart size for Breyers. I did not check other brands.
I still wonder if our inflation bean counters in Wash. DC have ever taken downsizing into their calculations for certain food items.
Tmcal6
OT - ABK
The market Cap is under $1 billion now, and they are saying they will place $1.5 billion more of equity. Anyone who buys those shares will have very little upside going forward and huge downside risk. I don't think they will get it placed unless it is already spoken for by the banks that did not come through with the bailout. Where will the pricing be? $8? $7? $6? .........
I think Fitch was right to be cautious and not say that even if the equity sale is successful, that it might not be enough to permit Ambac to get back to AAA from Fitch.
If I liked to short and thought I could find shares, I would probably short Abk.
Tmcal6
S&P Ratings--I find the timing of the affirmation of the MBIA and Ambac AAA ratings as unusual. I have not seen an announcement confirming a bank bailout of Ambac, so why the rush? Was it a precondition to sealing the deal with the banks? I really wonder if we will ever know the terms of any deal. I also wonder if Fitch, which often tries to be out front and a maverick, whether they will go along with the parade. Maybe the banks decided they were going to end up paying either way, either all at once if the insurers failed, or slowly over time if they keep backstopping the payments due on defaulted CDOs. What I can't figure is why the banks are letting existing shareholders off the hook. Maybe they have to in order to keep the whole charade from falling apart. Let's face it, the market cap of MBIA and Ambac combined, even at the higher prices at the close today, just barely exceeds $3 billion. Small price to pay in order to avoid another $50 billion of writeoffs.
Tmcal
OT----Mortgage Lifeline Proposal--What a joke. This may help a few of the homeowners who are over 90 days delinquent, but I can't imagine how many. One positive is that for the 30 days of grace period when foreclosures may be suspended, the monthly statistics on foreclosures may actually improve for a short period of time. Imagine, positive mortgage foreclosure news.
OT---Buffet Proposal: Buffet is smart, and makes an offer the insurance companies will probably refuse. He is saying He will reinsure the low to almost no risk municipal credit exposure of the insurance companies, and I am sure it is possibly at prices similar to what MBIA, Ambac and FGIC earned as premiums for the policies. I will be surprised if the two that have not turned it down yet, don't turn it down also. The proposal won't help them, it would only benefit their clients. Do you really think they will pay good capital to help their clients?
Housing Meltdown?
There is a banner article this weekend on the Finace page of Yahoo entitled, "Housing Meltdown: 25% Decline Ahead" that is a great read on the overall market. I don't know how to post links to articles, otherwise I would. Maybe someone can do that or PM me with instructions.
Tmcal6
PS: Maybe the link below will work. At least I tried.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/104340/Housing-Meltdown;_ylt=AkfZxysX48zh_o1gf.N9KOpO7sMF
Economy--
Many market economists are now saying the next shoe to drop will be commercial real estate. The Merrill Lynch chief economist is forecasting a 1% fed funds rate by year end combined with increased inflation. That implies stagflation going forward. The big question is how much and for how long will both real estate prices and the U.S. economy decline? I agree with some recent posts that we may see another week or two of positive market returns, but they will probably not be nearly as positive as last week and the longer term trend will be down. I am down about 2.7% overall being fully invested with about a 20% hedge in QID, but it is difficult to figure out and implement a strategy to get to positive for the year. Good luck to all.
Tmcal6
Jobs report: Here are some interesting facts from the payroll report for January which looks back and revises the previous year.
The drop in payrolls marked a significant deterioration in employment conditions. In December, employers added 82,000 new jobs. January's decline was the first since August 2003, when the labor market was still struggling to recover from the 2001 recession.
The government on Friday also released annual revisions -- based on more complete information -- to its payroll data. Those revisions showed job creation was even weaker last year than initially thought.
The economy added an average of just 95,000 jobs per month in 2007, versus an earlier estimate of 111,000 a month for the year. In 2006, payroll employment grew by an average of 175,000 a month.
tmcal
Foreign Markets---Japan closed up 1.85%, China was down less than 1%, but UK, France and German markets are currently down on average over 2%. Rocky open ahead, but some recovery from aftermarket yesterday.
Tmcal
Nsom Challenge;
Well I have participated in everything else with this great board, so I may as well try to get in under the wire on this challenge. Since I have always been sheepish and these picks have been favorites of this board and have already been in the challenge with other posters, I will be brief. My PSL6 #8 picks are:
AEY: Long time favorite of the Board and picked by a few in this challenge. Still selling off even with a close to fully taxed PE of 8. Should have another strong quarter announced next month.
BWR.to: Zinc and copper mining stock with 4 mines and very profitable, but has performed poorly so far this year with the general trend of mining stocks. Traded above 3 six months ago and may get there again later this year if the world economy stays out of the crapper.
CAGC.ob: Chinese fertilizer company with PE under 7, strong earnings and great prospects.
CNEH.ob: Oil producer with a large drilling program this year and hopefully a very low PE if we can eliminate the concern over the number of stocks held by whom.
CPHI.ob: Chinese pharmaceutical company, again with low PE and great earnings that should report another strong quarter next month.
UTVG.ob: Same as others but travel agency business. Down almost 50% from 52 week high but a long-term hold for many on the Board.
Well 5 out of 5 are China picks. Did anyone get 6 of 6?
tmcal6
Looks like the Japanese market is smarter than the U.S. market, is is down .85% in the first hour. I think BAC is figuring their size will let them weather the storm and they are buying a mortgage franchise for the future. Trouble is, they don't know how much that future will cost them and how soon it may begin. I agree with Rogue's postings of the Mish website that Bernanke can be complemented for his openness but reading between the lines, this mess has a lot further to run. It will be interesting to see what happens with the MBIA placement of a billion of capital notes at probably 15%. If that fails, will Berkshire come to the rescue?
Tmcal6
Countrywide is posting new lows. MBIA announcement that they will issue debt to raise capital does not sale well with the market. Who will buy it? Will it be straight debt or convertible, so that it really adds to capital. Current stockholders are probably toast.
tmcal
Gilead
I would guess that is an accurate observation. I know I often wait to take gains, but not necessarily the first day of the new year.
tmcal
R59, I think I was up and won last year, but crashed early this year. I guess I am getting old; maybe I will try again next year. LOL.
tmcal
skillz
The way I have been hanging on to 7th place, my guess is after tomorrow I will be lucky to be in the top 10. LOL
tmcal
Subprime;;
In the last two days I have spoken with some close to the scene mortgage bankers and supposedly the proposed solution may only help about 15-20% of the problem because it may be limited to conventional loan limits, it won't impact secondary mortgage loans, it will only apply to owner-occupied homes, it won't address or may not help with no-doc loans and loans with no down payment, or jumbo loans with no docs. The biggest fear is that loan values drop 10-20% further and it won't matter if there is a freeze on the mortgage interest rates, the owners may walk.
Tmcal
Len-
I kind of liked your joke because I came in 2nd. Now was there an award for 2nd? LOL
tmcal
QID
Schwab shows trading halted for QID.
Tmcal
Tax loss selling:
If there isn't much of a rally from here into the year end, or if there is a sell-off, I have to wonder if there will be significant tax loss selling this year compared to the past 4 or 5 years. First, I have to wonder how many investors need to sale investments for losses to offset significant gains. I am sure some of the members of this Board have to, but even some Board members may not have a problem Second, I think most of us have been evaluating our holdings to move more into cash and have already sold most of the dead weight. Third, I wonder what percentage of the portfolio assets of Board members are taxable and would be evaluated for tax loss selling. If we ever have a survey again, it might be an interesting question. Myself, about 90% of my investment funds are IRA rollover funds. And even in the taxable accounts, I don't think I will sell anything just to take a tax loss.
Tmcal
December 4, 9:10 a.m.
Well I am in Vegas and am unfortunately going to this "first" VMC Meet & Greet on a down day for my portfolio and a down week. But what the hell, it sure isn't a down year. Tinoco's Bistro is a little hard to notice and is in almost a light commercial/industrial area, so hopefully no one will have a problem finding it just because it doesn't stand out. If you are in a taxi you probably won't have a problem. A small parking lot and the entrance are almost hidden inside a fence and there is a larger parking lot across the street. Look forward to seeing everyone.
tmcal
Friday the 16th--I called again to confirm the reservation and good thing I did. They had us down for lunch, not dinner. But no problem, it is straight now. 6:30 p.m. at Tinoco's Bistro at 103 E. Charleston Blvd. The owner who answers the phone has a really heavy Italian accent. Hopefully that is a good sign.
tmcal
HSOA - Seems to have no support
E-trade, 50% haircut on mortgage exposure
Schwab-Good service and execution, just wish I could buy more international stocks through them without paying an arm and a leg.
tmcal
All Attendees:
Looks like both nights are planned. Thanks Kipp for setting up Saturday's cocktails/dinner. Right now it looks like we have 9 VMCers going. I am still waiting to confirm 2 possible additions, Echos and Nsomniyak. Maybe a few others might also attend. To my knowledge, only Kipp will not be at Tinoco's on Friday night. Please let me know if I have that wrong. It looks like two wives will be there both nights, Mrs. Digitech and Mrs. 10Bagger. With name tags I am sure we will get past or improve on that. If anyone else is bringing a spouse, please let me know. I hope neither wife cancels because it would be nice to have both in attendance each night. Looking forward to a fun weekend.
Tmcal6
AEY
On sale, off over $1. News?
tmcal
Len, OIL, 89.0
tmcal
Nsomniyak--Hope you do shake free and can join us both nights. I am a real hacker myself and would love to play but don't think I will have enough time this time around. If this one is a success and it is repeated somewhere next year, maybe we will get a few more hackers involved.
tmcal
Well it appears that somehow this board received a scam spam. That is a first. Anyone want to respond to this idiot? LOL
BB - I predict Ben and company will cut 25 bp and there will be a selloff, just can't decide if it will be modest or big. Probably modest until they see the release the next day.
Tmcal
TVOC
Correction, it should be tvoc, not tvco.
TVCO
Someone is buying. Normally the bid/ask is a ridiculous 8.50/1200 and today it is 11.40/12 with 4,000 shares traded, big volume for this. I sold 25% of position, which I have wanted to do for a long time, but wonder if something is up and I should hold the rest. Probably regret holding.
tmcal