The market Cap is under $1 billion now, and they are saying they will place $1.5 billion more of equity. Anyone who buys those shares will have very little upside going forward and huge downside risk. I don't think they will get it placed unless it is already spoken for by the banks that did not come through with the bailout. Where will the pricing be? $8? $7? $6? .........
I think Fitch was right to be cautious and not say that even if the equity sale is successful, that it might not be enough to permit Ambac to get back to AAA from Fitch.
If I liked to short and thought I could find shares, I would probably short Abk.
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