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TGA and Caracal Energy (CRCL/CCAXF) to Merge.
TGA shareholders to get 1.23 shares in the new company for each current TGA Share.
Caracal Energy trades on the London stock exchange as CRCL, Pink sheet equivalent is CCAXF. Friday's close was 410 pence(GBX)=4.10 pounds(GBP) or 6.82 USD
IF the transaction is simply accretive.
CRSL Mkt Cap=601.32M GBX =~ 999.87 M USD
TGA Mkt Cap=568.46 M USD
999.87+586.46=1,586.33 M USD
The merged company will have approximately 238,503,645 shares issued and outstanding prior to adjusting for conversion of Caracal's outstanding convertible debentures.
1,586,330,000/238,503,645=6.51 new Share price
6.51*1.23=8.01 to TGA shareholders IF the market does not price it down due to the new company being fully exposed in Chad, Egypt, and Yemen.
So far I see this as Ross cashing out, retiring as CEO and moving to a board position. TGA shareholder's get a very small current premium (~50 cents), I could be wrong though.
Thoughts?
Jeff
Links:
Newswire Story
Merger presentation
TGA and Caracal Energy (CRCL/CCAXF) to Merge.
TGA shareholders to get 1.23 shares in the new company for each current TGA Share.
Caracal Energy trades on the London stock exchange as CRCL, Pink sheet equivalent is CCAXF. Friday's close was 410 pence(GBX)=4.10 pounds(GBP) or 6.82 USD
IF the transaction is simply accretive.
CRSL Mkt Cap=601.32M GBX =~ 999.87 M USD
TGA Mkt Cap=568.46 M USD
999.87+586.46=1,586.33 M USD
The merged company will have approximately 238,503,645 shares issued and outstanding prior to adjusting for conversion of Caracal's outstanding convertible debentures.
1,586,330,000/238,503,645=6.51 new Share price
6.51*1.23=8.01 to TGA shareholders IF the market does not price it down due to the new company being fully exposed in Chad, Egypt, and Yemen.
So far I see this as Ross cashing out, retiring as CEO and moving to a board position. TGA shareholder's get a very small current premium (~50 cents), I could be wrong though.
Thoughts?
Jeff
Links:
Newswire Story
Merger presentation
TGA +0.34 3.86%/$9.15 On Egyptian government payback announcement
As Ross predicted Egypt in the CC looks like Egypt will make a nice size payment in Q4. The estimates they gave was about 50 million. They also have quite a bit of cash flowing from operations even after good size development and exploration budget. The company is also looking at paying a regular Dividend. Announcement to be made in Early 2014 according to Ross.
I still like TGA's prospects in the 9's.
I've been posting and buying since Sept/Oct. I think Ross has delivered and will continue to grow TGA. I'm looking for a rise to $12 a share next year, with a potential to return to $17-$20 in a few years if the have good exploration results in 2015 (And Egypt stabilizes)
Looking for a very good 2014.
Thoughts?
Jeff
A few links:
Overblown Geopolitical Risks Make TransGlobe Energy A Compelling Investment
Egypt woos Gulf investors, promises oil repayments
TGA Conference Call
Q3 2013 Conference Call and Webcast_Presentation (PDF)
Q3 2013 Conference Call and Webcast_Audio (MP3)
TGA Conference call was very positive Detailed notes at the end of the post..
But my key takeaways were.
- Expect 2014 to have moderate production growth (20 Kto 24K bopd) with consistent cash flows.
- Expect a Dividend announcement (Ross seemed to talk as if it was a done deal)
- Expect Reserves to grow towards the end of 2014 as the 3D is shot and evaluated.
- Expect/Hope Egypt stabilizes: Meaning receivables should stop growing and actually be reduced.
(Also the discount the stock is trading due to being in Egypt should decrease)
The stock is Currently trading @$9.03 with a market cap of 667 Million, and Forward P/E of ~11.2 and a Cashflow of 5x.
I think its still a good value at 9.00 and the news stream in the next month or two should be positive. Of course the risk is the political situation in Egypt.
Thoughts?
Jeff
- Slide 8 Production increasing from 18519 (Oct) to 20,100 (Dec)
- Slide 10 - 12 ~11:30 New concessions (NW Gharib) need 3D shot
Working to move all production to the pipeline to eliminate trucking
(So I‘d expect reserves to increase in 2014)
- Slide 13 ~15:00 East Ghazalat operator (Vegas) bought out by a state run Chinese company. They expect a much more aggressive drilling program in 2014. 50% WI to TGA
- Slide 14 ~16:20 South Alamein Currently drilling 2 exploration wells now “significant potential”
- Slide 15 17:00 South Ghazalat prue exploration play. Need to shoot 3D probably late in 2014.
Q&A
- ~22:45 Expect enough to increase CAPX spend and perhaps even some M&A to diversify from Egypt but still expect a large cash balance.
- ~25:14 Development to exploration CAPX spend to be 100M a year spend for the next 5 years. In 2014 70% Development to 30% exploration. In 2015 shift more 30/70.
~30:30 Shooting for 40,000 in 4 years. Sounds like 22K to 24K in 2014. Can grow to 40K with 100 million dollar spend per year.
~33:00 Reserves for this expect to be flat. Because South Alamein was deferred to 2014.
~ 34:30 Reserves on West Gharid has 10 to 40 million barrel can not be booked to reserves until they get an approved development plan.
~ 38:00 Ross’s Conclusion is extremely positive. TGA is in a strong position. Huge inventory of development and exploration property, and more cash than they can spend. New update ops reports and 2014 budget in a few weeks.
TGA Conference Call
Q3 2013 Conference Call and Webcast_Presentation (PDF)
Q3 2013 Conference Call and Webcast_Audio (MP3)
TGA Conference call was very positive Detailed notes at the end of the post..
But my key takeaways were.
- Expect 2014 to have moderate production growth (20 Kto 24K bopd) with consistent cash flows.
- Expect a Dividend announcement (Ross seemed to talk as if it was a done deal)
- Expect Reserves to grow towards the end of 2014 as the 3D is shot and evaluated.
- Expect/Hope Egypt stabilizes: Meaning receivables should stop growing and actually be reduced.
(Also the discount the stock is trading due to being in Egypt should decrease)
The stock is Currently trading @$9.03 with a market cap of 667 Million, and Forward P/E of ~11.2 and a Cashflow of 5x.
I think its still a good value at 9.00 and the news stream in the next month or two should be positive. Of course the risk is the political situation in Egypt.
Thoughts?
Jeff
- Slide 8 Production increasing from 18519 (Oct) to 20,100 (Dec)
- Slide 10 - 12 ~11:30 New concessions (NW Gharib) need 3D shot
Working to move all production to the pipeline to eliminate trucking
(So I‘d expect reserves to increase in 2014)
- Slide 13 ~15:00 East Ghazalat operator (Vegas) bought out by a state run Chinese company. They expect a much more aggressive drilling program in 2014. 50% WI to TGA
- Slide 14 ~16:20 South Alamein Currently drilling 2 exploration wells now “significant potential”
- Slide 15 17:00 South Ghazalat prue exploration play. Need to shoot 3D probably late in 2014.
Q&A
- ~22:45 Expect enough to increase CAPX spend and perhaps even some M&A to diversify from Egypt but still expect a large cash balance.
- ~25:14 Development to exploration CAPX spend to be 100M a year spend for the next 5 years. In 2014 70% Development to 30% exploration. In 2015 shift more 30/70.
~30:30 Shooting for 40,000 in 4 years. Sounds like 22K to 24K in 2014. Can grow to 40K with 100 million dollar spend per year.
~33:00 Reserves for this expect to be flat. Because South Alamein was deferred to 2014.
~ 34:30 Reserves on West Gharid has 10 to 40 million barrel can not be booked to reserves until they get an approved development plan.
~ 38:00 Ross’s Conclusion is extremely positive. TGA is in a strong position. Huge inventory of development and exploration property, and more cash than they can spend. New update ops reports and 2014 budget in a few weeks.
TGA Q3 Earnings out. $9.00 up .42 so far today...
TGA Q3 Report
Highlights:
- Total production averaged 18,197 Bopd in Q3 slightly down from Q2.
- Total Cash flow down slightly
- Two new discoveries including oil at Block 32 in Yemen
- Net earnings per share up .06 cents
- The Company is analyzing the possibility of beginning either a modest dividend program or a share buy-back program.
I haven't listen to the CC yet. And the announcement does not have 2014 production guidance. But acreage and exploration is increasing. Ross's willingness to return cash to the shareholders seems to be a really positive statement.
Holding long in 2014.
Thoughts?
Best Regards,
Jeff
TGA Q3 Earnings out. $9.00 up .42 so far today...
TGA Q3 Report
Highlights:
- Total production averaged 18,197 Bopd in Q3 slightly down from Q2.
- Total Cash flow down slightly
- Two new discoveries including oil at Block 32 in Yemen
- Net earnings per share up .06 cents
- The Company is analyzing the possibility of beginning either a modest dividend program or a share buy-back program.
I haven't listen to the CC yet. And the announcement does not have 2014 production guidance. But acreage and exploration is increasing. Ross's willingness to return cash to the shareholders seems to be a really positive statement.
Holding long in 2014.
Thoughts?
Best Regards,
Jeff
TGA: Oil prices
"As of May 2009, all of TransGlobe’s production consisted of crude oil, which is marketed with pricing benchmarked to the North Sea Brent price. "
Re: SFY 13.02 -70 cents
I agree, mgmt did a terrible job on the conference call. I still like the story. Bought more at 13.09 I think the stock holds around 13 bucks
I think this also a bit of profit taking/selling on the news.
Re: SFY
I agree, with the upside potential. I'm just wondering why they keep projecting flat growth in Q4.
Hopefully they are just downplaying, and expect to have another good beat in Q4.
FWIW,
Jeff
TGA 9.07 -.02 DNO tested 5900 bpd well in Yeman (TGA 13% interest)
DNO International Tests 5,900 Barrels per Day at Yemen Discovery Well
Not a huge windfall for TGA but every bit helps!
TGA 9.07 -.02 DNO tested 5900 bpd well in Yeman (TGA 13% interest)
DNO International Tests 5,900 Barrels per Day at Yemen Discovery Well
Not a huge windfall for TGA but every bit helps!
SFY Conference Call
Hi Bob -
Thanks for bring this one to the board. Still own SEA, but I think this company compliments them well in EFS.
Listened to the earnings call today posted on their site.
http://www.swiftenergy.com/
On the call they predicted a flat Q4 2013 in earnings and a reduction in capital spending in 2014? I'm not sure they are looking aggressively grow production in 2014.
A few highlights:
- They were very upbeat on the improved cost structure of drilling wells at 7 Million and that its improving.
- They have 3 rigs to drill 40-45 will in EFS in the next 12 months.
- With a chance of adding a fourth rig if/when they sell the property in central Louisiana.
Thoughts?
Jeff
TGA Up .11 to $9.15
New article on Seeking alpha:
TransGlobe Energy: Near-Term Upside Potential Even With Political Uncertainty
I agree with the author. Picked up more TGA shares below $9.00 last week. The 52 week high will continue to decline and converge on the current share price as the stock fell from $11.00 to 9.34 in Late Dec 2012. This will cause it to pop up on stock screeners etc, as a stock nearing a 52 week high, which might be a further short term catalyst.
In either case the fundamentals in the stock have improved over the last year with the new leases and growth in production. I'm expecting TGA to climb to 10 bucks by the end of the year and perhaps get back in the 15-20 CAD range in 2014.
Been a long time follower of the stock since Raging Bull, the CEO Ross Clarkson, has a great track record in Egypt for over ten years.
TGA up .24 cents on news that the Egyptian government ratifies bids for new land.
New drilling area's. Ross is ready to drill quickly and this is part of the plan to double output from 20K bpd to 40K bpd.
The company is undervalued know IMHO and is really set to take off if Ross and his team executes (He has done so in the past 10 years) and Egypt stabilizes.
TransGlobe Energy Corporation Announces New Concessions Ratified in Egypt
TGA Opinions?
I'm looking to add more shares today once the crowd calms down a bit.
This is a profitable company (.89 EPS), good leadership, Cash is growing, debt is ok, and no recent history of dilution.
I see no reason that TGA cannot hit 12 bucks again and is worth 17-20+ IF Egypt stabilizes, their new leases pan out, and oil stays up above $100.
Thoughts?
TGA up .38 ti 8.24 on update
Operations Update
Good drilling update, and political situation seems to be stabilizing and improving. Big up side here on TGA, IMHO.
2013 YTD drilled 35 wells resulting in 29 oil wells, 1 gas/condensate well and 5 dry holes (86% success)
Received $142.7 million to date from EGPC during 2013; additional tanker liftings are scheduled for November
New concessions approved by Cabinet and forwarded to President; ratification is expected in late 2013
Shale oil in Australia?
The article quotes that finds "could rival the Bakken shale."
The article mentions a few 1B companies exploring in the area. I cannot find any Juniors, anyone know of any?
No gas, please: Australia shale hunters focus on oil
Sundance Court approves the approves the Demerger & acquisition fir
PINK:SDCJF/SEA:AX
I'm wondering if Sundance and Texon will be in a quiet period now until everything is final, or if we might see a production update before March 8th? Kightlinger 19-3-8-1 was the Mississippian well that had a bridge plug put in to reduce the water flow and they said in the preso they has a significant increase in oil production. A high WI% well in there Mississippian acarage would be great new too!
TXN: Federal Court approves Schemes
TXN: Demerger and Aquisition Schemes effective
But in any case this is good news for the merger.
Best Regards,
Jeff
Aussie Court approves the approves the Demerger & acquisition
I agree I'm holding as well.
I'm wondering if Sundance and Texon will be in a quiet period now until everything is final, or if we might see a production update before March 8th? Kightlinger 19-3-8-1 was the Mississippian well that had a bridge plug put in to reduce the water flow and they said in the preso they has a significant increase in oil production. A high WI% well in there Mississippian acarage would be great new too!
TXN: Federal Court approves Schemes
TXN: Demerger and Aquisition Schemes effective
Texon Shareholders approved Sundance acquisition today.
Court should approve Weds. Then implementation date is March 8th. I'll be looking to pick up more shares if folks sell on the news or the increase in numbers of outstanding shares. But I don't think that will happen.
TXN: Results of Shareholder meetings
Thoughts?
Jeff
Texon Shareholders approved Sundance acquisition today.
Court should approve Weds. Then implementation date is March 8th. I'll be looking to pick up more shares if folks sell on the news or the increase in numbers of outstanding shares. But I don't think that will happen.
TXN: Results of Shareholder meetings
Thoughts?
Jeff
Re: Sundance: sea.ax/sdcjf +.035 to A$.975 Posted new presentation
Investor Presentation - Focused Strategy Delivering Results
Bob -
I agree! I should have grabbed more last week :(
They posted a new presentation which they are most likey shopping around to investors and trying to help the Merger.
I think slide 20 should make several investors very happy. 9 wells drilled with some fairly high test rates. Also Slide 12 showing the improvements to the Kightlinger well in the Mississippian looks very promising. Then finally tie all this together with 150 million in cash and a larger credit facility and I think this company has more potential than I've seen in a micro cap in a while.
Dare I say it but I think SEA might still win the race with Mart yet this year :)
Best Regards,
Jeff
Re: Sundance and Talon
Thanks Bob, I think I'll try to pick up a few shares of Texon on the ASX. Like you I'm pretty overweight in MART and Sundance, but I don't see too many options with the upside of these two stocks.
Best Regards,
Jeff
Would you be a buyer of Sundance at .88 AUD?
Thanks Bob -
So it seems like Sundance has good upside bases on:
- The Cash and credit line to grow through the drill bit with high WI%
- Good management with a good track record of selecting acreage.
- Lots of upside in drilling rights and provable reserves. (Both current and after the merger)
- Current profitability and production
- Good volume and liquidity on the ASX
The downside risks are:
- Another bid comes in for Texon
- The EFS land does not prove out (Although the first two look great)
- Management fails to execute.
If you had investment cash would you buy more Sundance at these prices? Versus MART? Or purchase something else?
Thoughts?
Thanks,
Best Regards,
Jeff
Thanks Bob!
This makes sense. It seems to me that if Sundance closes this deal, and then publishes and begins executing on an aggressive drilling program to hold the acreage, the stock should make a nice move.
I'm wondering if there is a risk they cannot get the drilling crews/rigs to drill the 12 wells?
Thoughts?
Best Regards,
Jeff
Thanks Bob!
Sundance also secure an additional 300 million credit line at the end of 2012, for this reason as well I think,
US$300 Million Credit Facility with Wells Fargo
Merger with Texon (ASX:TXN/PINK:TEXOF)
Sundance - Texon Merger Presentation
- Dilution 2:1 stock payout to Texon Shareholders (~127 Million new Sundance shares will need to be issued)
- Paying a 14% premium for a stock which has been collapsing since April and near its 52 week low.
- Not getting the entire company to boot? All non Eagle Ford shale asset to be spun off into a new company?
Basically its 104M in Stock for 7000+ WI in Eagle ford Shale.
Texon EGM Presentation - 31 August 2012
June 2012 Quarterly Report
Outlines Texon's plan to sale the EFS assets and their production and cash.
Maybe I'm missing this, Sundance management must see good value here (I hope). But I hate the dilution...
Thoughts?
Jeff
Sundance (ASX:SEA/PINK:SDCJF) merger with Texon (ASX:TXN/PINK:TEXOF)
Sundance - Texon Merger Presentation
- Dilution 2:1 stock payout to Texon Shareholders (~127 Million new shares will need to be issued)
- Paying a 14% premium for a stock which has been collapsing since April and near its 52 week low.
- Not getting the entire company to boot? All non Eagle Ford shale asset to be spun off into a new company?
Basically its 104M in Stock for 7000+ WI in Eagle ford Shale.
Texon EGM Presentation - 31 August 2012
June 2012 Quarterly Report
Outlines Texon's plan to sale the EFS assets and their production and cash.
Maybe I'm missing this, Sundance management must see good value here (I hope). But I hate the dilution...
Thoughts?
Jeff
Activities & Cashflow Reports for 30 September 12 Quarter
Activities & Cashflow Reports for 30 September 12 Quarter
Good Report for Sundance. It looks to me like they are right on plan.
- 163 Million in cash
- growing through the drill bit
- Profitable
I'm looking forward to seeing the production reports on the Anadarko Basin wells that are drilled, frac'd and being tested.
Looks good to me.
Jeff
Sundance: (SEA.AX/SDCJF.PK) Activities & Cashflow Reports for 30 September 12 Quarter
Activities & Cashflow Reports for 30 September 12 Quarter
Good Report for Sundance. It looks to me like they are right on plan.
- 163 Million in cash
- growing through the drill bit
- Profitable
I'm looking forward to seeing the production reports on the Anadarko Basin wells that are drilled, frac'd and being tested.
Looks good to me.
Jeff
Re: Sundance
Well the price is not moving and there is enough volume on the ASX for me to rule out small time market makers playing with the stock.
I agree the stock is undervalued the question is what will it take to get the stock to move and can the company execute to make it happen?
Happy to hold hear as I have a lot of early buys. But I'm too puzzeled to add on any more in the .70's
Jeff
Mentioned in Bloomberg article As a potential takeover target
Shale Takeovers Looming as Texas Discounted in Australia
The article is about takeover speculation of Australian companies
"Hartleys Ltd. Adelaide- based Sundance Energy Australia Ltd. (SEA), which last month agreed to sell a North Dakota asset for more than the company’s market value at the time, could lure bidders with its remaining acreage that’s worth at least five times more than what’s reflected in the share price, said Bell Potter Securities Ltd."
The article also meations the Eley Griffiths Group Pty. who is one of the group's who have been accumulating Sundance
(They own 6%+ as of this ASX filing)
This has not seemed to impacted the price overnight, but the volume is significantly lower than usual.
Hopefully this is a start of another significant leg up for the stock.
Thoughts?
Jeff
Sundance: (SEA.AX/SDCJF.PK) Mentioned in Bloomberg article.
Shale Takeovers Looming as Texas Discounted in Australia
The article is about takeover speculation of Australian companies
"Hartleys Ltd. Adelaide- based Sundance Energy Australia Ltd. (SEA), which last month agreed to sell a North Dakota asset for more than the company’s market value at the time, could lure bidders with its remaining acreage that’s worth at least five times more than what’s reflected in the share price, said Bell Potter Securities Ltd."
The article also meations the Eley Griffiths Group Pty. who is one of the group's who have been accumulating Sundance
(They own 6%+ as of this ASX filing)
This has not seemed to impacted the price overnight, but the volume is significantly lower than usual.
Hopefully this is a start of another significant leg up for the stock.
Thoughts?
Jeff
Sale complete 172.2 Million gross received
$172M Sale of S. Antelope Field complete
Press release
"The company has now received gross proceeds of US172.4M"
The good news keeps coming. They have the cash now lets look forward to more drill success.
How many micro-caps get this much cash to grow? its a Rare opportunity I think.
Thoughts?
Best Regards,
Jeff
Sundance: (SEA.AX/SDCJF.PK) $172M Sale of S. Antelope Field complete
Press release
"The company has now received gross proceeds of US172.4M"
The good news keeps coming. They have the cash now lets look forward to more drill success.
How many micro-caps get this much cash to grow? its a Rare opportunity I think.
Thoughts?
Best Regards,
Jeff
New Reserve evaluation 112% increase in Proven Reserves
June 30 2012 reserve report
Sundance announces "Significant uplift in reserves." Comparing it to last year's reserve report, I'm not sure I agree.
- They were calculating the value at $84-88 vs $95 in 2012
- Including S. Antelope the PV10 reserves only increased %63
(From from 4,890 to 7,979 Oil (mbbls))
June 30 2011 report
Overall I still like this stock, but I cannot figure out if this change is really significant or just hype?
Thoughts?
Jeff
Sundance: New Reserve evaluation 112% increase in Proven Reserves
(SEA.AX/SDCJF.PK)
June 30 2012 reserve report
Sundance announces "Significant uplift in reserves." Comparing it to last year's reserve report, I'm not sure I agree.
- They were calculating the value at $84-88 vs $95 in 2012
- Including S. Antelope the PV10 reserves only increased %63
(From from 4,890 to 7,979 Oil (mbbls))
June 30 2011 report
Bob any comment on this? Overall I still like this stock, but I cannot figure out if this change is really significant or just hype?
Thoughts?
Jeff
September investment presentation
ASX Presentation
Page 23 has a good summary of the news pipeline over the next 12 months. One thing remember is that Sundance's fiscal year ended June 30th, so we are already well Into fiscal year 2013/Q1, so expect to see a good number of press releases in the next four weeks.
Slide 26 shows the downward revision of production due to the South antelope sale. The rationale for the sale makes sense of course but it is going to cost them some momentum on growing production this year.
Slide 30 has some good visual representation of current drilling operations in the Mississippian, but it appears based on their projections on slide 26 that they don't expect anything to surprising.
Overall, I still think Sundance is a very good "story", with a lot of new still in front of it.
Thoughts?
Jeff
Sundance: (SEA.AX/SDCJF.PK) September investment presentation
ASX Presentation
Page 23 has a good summary of the news pipeline over the next 12 months. One thing remember is that Sundance's fiscal year ended June 30th, so we are already well Into fiscal year 2013/Q1, so expect to see a good number of press releases in the next four weeks.
Slide 26 shows the downward revision of production due to the South antelope sale. The rationale for the sale makes sense of course but it is going to cost them some momentum on growing production this year.
Slide 30 has some good visual representation of current drilling operations in the Mississippian, but it appears based on their projections on slide 26 that they don't expect anything to surprising.
Overall, I still think Sundance is a very good "story", with a lot of new still in front of it.
Thoughts?
Jeff