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Re: XOMA - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:
Chart insert TA reads:
17 AUG 22010 - TECH-NOTE:
1 - RSI indicates sellers in control
2 - Secondary indicators remain bearish
3 - Selling pressure demonstrated in A/D and OBV lines below their 21-EMA
4 - Market makers are the only element on the buy side, as indicated by ChiOsc crossing above is 21-EMA
Overall: BEARISH
Caveat: Look for trend violation to the upside in RSI and bearish channel boundaries.
XOMA - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Bank Research Consensus Weekly 08.23.10
Source: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/bank_research/2010/08/16/Bank__Research_Consensus_Weekly_08.16.10.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Monday, 16 August 2010 17:19 GMT
By Michael Wright, Currency Analyst
There's no mistaking the slowing in incoming US economic indicators, ranging from past consumer spending and income to employment and forward-looking orders. And we are mindful of the downside risks to growth, noted below. But extrapolating the recent deceleration in the economy into still-slower growth would be a mistake, in our view. Instead, we see a moderate pickup ahead, with the 2Q downshift marking the transition to a period of unspectacular 3-3.5% growth.
Richard Berner & David Greenlaw, Global Economics Team, Morgan Stanley
Bank__Research_Consensus_Weekly_08.16.10_body_bankresearch.jpg, Bank Research Consensus Weekly 08.23.10
Growth Pickup Coming, But Fed Exit Postponed
Richard Berner & David Greenlaw, Global Economics Team, Morgan Stanley
Don't extrapolate slower growth. There's no mistaking the slowing in incoming US economic indicators, ranging from past consumer spending and income to employment and forward-looking orders. And we are mindful of the downside risks to growth, noted below. But extrapolating the recent deceleration in the economy into still-slower growth would be a mistake, in our view. Instead, we see a moderate pickup ahead, with the 2Q downshift marking the transition to a period of unspectacular 3-3.5% growth.
Full Story
FX: USD Recovers Despite Soft Fed
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Senior Analyst, Danske Bank
Last week the Fed announced it would be re-investing principal payments from its Agency and Mortgage Backed Securities in longer-term Treasuries and thereby keep its balance sheet constant. It effectively puts the exit process from quantitative easing on hold for now.
The knee-jerk reaction was a weakening of the dollar against the euro and the yen. The new stimuli from the Fed will further add to dollar liquidity in the market and will everything equal push US rates lower. The move underlines that the Fed has a strong commitment to keep rates low for an ‘extended period’. However, the dollar quickly reversed the losses and we saw a significant drop in EUR/USD from 1.33 to below 1.28.
Full Story
United States – Deflation on the Brain But Probably Not on the Horizon
James Marple, Economist, TD Bank Financial Group
It was another volatile week for financial markets as a dovish sounding Fed came up against disappointing economic indicators that, once again, raised fears about the sustainability of the U.S. economic recovery. By the time of writing, equity markets were down over 3.0% from their previous week’s close and the yield on U.S. 10 year treasuries had fallen 0.1 percentage points - reachings its lowest level since March of 2009. With the economic recovery slowing, and the job market showing little signs of joining in what economic recovery there is, the deflation boogeyman is once again popping up and keeping investors from a good night’s sleep. We have written in the past about the risks of deflation (see U.S. Consumer Prices to Drift Awefully Close To Deflationary Danger Zone). Given the turn in economic indicators, and in light of the move by the Federal Reserve to take baby steps towards more, rather than less, monetary stimulus, it is worth considering these risks again.
Full Story
BOE Inflation Report: King to Have Last Word, Not Sentance
Trevor Williams, Chief Economist at Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets
Nine months into a cyclical recovery and the debate over UK monetary policy has become increasingly finely balanced. On the one hand, the pick-up in growth and the elevated level of inflation have strengthened the case for a preemptive rise in interest rates to start soon. On the other, the degree of uncertainty about the durability of the recovery and the potential disinflationary forces that could yet emerge have raised the possibility that more, not less, stimulus may be required. So which is it - should sterling markets brace themselves for an impending rise in interest rates; or should they be prepared for a renewed round of policy stimulus to stave off the risk of a double-dip recession?
Full Story
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J-Chart
J-Chart is an innovative charting and bias-neutral market analysis tool. Based on its proprietary theoretical concept and display of market price action, J-Chart provides a much clearer and unique insight into the market than conventional charting methods. This innovative charting and market analysis tool is designed to visualize market price action that constructs unique price patterns called "Equilibriums". Based on its "non-fixed time frame" concept and "Kinetic Equilibrium" application, J-Chart users are able to forecast markets' future movements with high accuracy.
J-Chart Weekly Newsletter
Compiled by Michael Wright, Currency Analyst
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Michael Wright is the author of FX Headlines, Fundamentals vs. Technical's, Intraday Trading, Weekly Spotlight, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast
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Nite!
D.
... Then again, I should have known:
Occupation: Goddess of Planet Earth
D>
Re: USD - Narrowing gap:
Support at 81.93; resistance at 8.93 - Very narrow gap; expecting a significant move from this narrowing gap.
D.
LOL. So the E at the end of Buddiee was the clue?
D.
Re: Euro vs. Dollar Indices - Bullish outlook
The $USD charts only prints data at EOD. So, the analysis on the daily chart is based upon close last friday. Nonetheless, the chart is printing some early indication that the USD is recovering from a severe beating. While the economic data released last week may have been lackluster, there remains some fundamental uncertainties in Europe and Asia, which have dampened risk positions in the Forex market. Therefore, expect the greenback to benefit from the current reversal towards risk averse market sentiments.
Technically speaking, today's chart insert reads the following interpretation (See: "Tech-Note" below), supportive of a bullish reversal confirmation for the US Dollar index. A converse argument against the EURO Index ($XEU) can be made: Here, the RSI printed a BEARISH reversal confirmation precisely where price failed to rally above its BEARISH channel midline.
While these analyses are based on daily charts, further bullish confirmation of a continued bullish trend for the greenback will be best determined out of a weekly chart, where market consensus are the strongest. For now, such WEEKLY chart exists in the XEU itself, as well as the its relative strength (XEU vs. USD), where BEARISH technical events are still unfolding:
USD (Dollar index) - 1-Mo., DAILY Chart:
16 AUG 2010 - TECH-NOTE:
1 - RSI in positive spread;
2 - Price validated BULLISH channel; support above 61.8% Fib
CAUTION: Significant resistance at 38.2% Fib
BULLISH OUTLOOK.
XEU (EURO Index) - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
$XEU:$USD (Indices Relative Strength) - 5-Yr., Weekly Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: Euro vs. Dollar Indices - Bullish outlook
The $USD charts only prints data at EOD. So, the analysis on the daily chart is based upon close last friday. Nonetheless, the chart is printing some early indication that the USD is recovering from a severe beating. While the economic data released last week may have been lackluster, there remains some fundamental uncertainties in Europe and Asia, which have dampened risk positions in the Forex market. Therefore, expect the greenback to benefit from the current reversal towards risk averse market sentiments.
Technically speaking, today's chart insert reads the following interpretation (See: "Tech-Note" below), supportive of a bullish reversal confirmation for the US Dollar index. A converse argument against the EURO Index ($XEU) can be made: Here, the RSI printed a BEARISH reversal confirmation precisely where price failed to rally above its BEARISH channel midline.
While these analyses are based on daily charts, further bullish confirmation of a continued bullish trend for the greenback will be best determined out of a weekly chart, where market consensus are the strongest. For now, such WEEKLY chart exists in the XEU itself, as well as the its relative strength (XEU vs. USD), where BEARISH technical events are still unfolding:
USD (Dollar index) - 1-Mo., DAILY Chart:
16 AUG 2010 - TECH-NOTE:
1 - RSI in positive spread;
2 - Price validated BULLISH channel; support above 61.8% Fib
CAUTION: Significant resistance at 38.2% Fib
BULLISH OUTLOOK.
XEU (EURO Index) - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
$XEU:$USD (Indices Relative Strength) - 5-Yr., Weekly Chart:
- Dalcindo
YW Amigo!
D.
Tried Kayak.com?
D.
Re: Forex
Forex is very technicals friendly. The Fibs are excellent applications for it. I reinforce my directional positions using the combination of UUP, UDN, XEU and USD, as well as relative strength charting of UUP:UDN and XEU:USD.
These charts are listed on pages 5 and 6 on my StockCharts.com public list. The daily USD chart on page 5 has been the most reliable source for directional biases when trading the EUR:USD pair.
I trade using OANDA.com, get some sentiments from DailyFX.com, and get news from FX360.com, all free of charge.
OANDA offers the best spreads, whereas FXCM offers one of the best trading platform (which I have considered, but not interested in moving away from my familiar charting in OANDA).
- Dalcindo
No. Not to NYC anytime recently. I travel alot, but rack up points through one same line of hotels to make it cheaper.
I wish I knew which cheap place to stay there though.
D.
None so far. Forex is my main alley for now.
D.
Well, the site is free ... for 14 days.
D.
Just considering it. Not 100% sure how it would work for me, though.
D.
Re: GOOG - Bearish signals
TA:
13 AUG 2010 - TECH-NOTE: STRONG bearish signal per following:
1 - RSI prints a lower high as it attempts to cross its 45-EMA line
2 - RSI fails rally above its 50-line
3 - Price fails to rally above its long-term trendline and weekly 20-EMA,
4 - Secondary indicators are pointing downwards since recent rally, suggesting continued weakening,
5 - A/D, OBV and CiOsch are favoring selling side per their 21-EMA
GOOG - 36-Mo., Weekly Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: GOOG - Bearish signals
TA:
13 AUG 2010 - TECH-NOTE: STRONG bearish signal per following:
1 - RSI prints a lower high as it attempts to cross its 45-EMA line
2 - RSI fails rally above its 50-line
3 - Price fails to rally above its long-term trendline and weekly 20-EMA,
4 - Secondary indicators are pointing downwards since recent rally, suggesting continued weakening,
5 - A/D, OBV and CiOsch are favoring selling side per their 21-EMA
GOOG - 36-Mo., Weekly Chart:
- Dalcindo
No, not being cute. I am referring to the website from the link you have provided. Here it is:
http://www.mffais.com/stock/google-inc.html
D.
Very nice website.
D.
YW.
D.
Re: ECPN
Sorry, just realized that this is on the BB board. Sorry.
- Dalcindo
Stocks On Watch: CRXX, ECPN:
CRXX - 3Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
While the weekly 20-EMA has cross over the weekly 50-EMA, $CRXX 's price has remained under resistance under the upper border of the bearish channel. As long as the 50-EMA continues to act as support, there is a chance that price may breakout.
RSI's long-term support is getting tested anew. This last step may provide a push towards that breakout.
For now, secondary indicators seem to revert away from a recent, albeit weak uptrend. Therefore, the predominant trend remains bearish, but breakout may occur given the conditions met in the weekly 50-EMA and RSI supports, IMHO:
ECPN - 12-Mo., WEEKLY Chart:
Here, $ECPN is offering a more committed trend to the upside. While CRXX may possibly in the early phase of a bullish reversal, ECPN is way ahead of the curve. Secondary indicators continue to look up:
- Dalcindo
Stocks On Watch: CRXX, ECPN:
CRXX - 3Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
While the weekly 20-EMA has cross over the weekly 50-EMA, $CRXX 's price has remained under resistance under the upper border of the bearish channel. As long as the 50-EMA continues to act as support, there is a chance that price may breakout.
RSI's long-term support is getting tested anew. This last step may provide a push towards that breakout.
For now, secondary indicators seem to revert away from a recent, albeit weak uptrend. Therefore, the predominant trend remains bearish, but breakout may occur given the conditions met in the weekly 50-EMA and RSI supports, IMHO:
ECPN - 12-Mo., WEEKLY Chart:
Here, $ECPN is offering a more committed trend to the upside. While CRXX may possibly in the early phase of a bullish reversal, ECPN is way ahead of the curve. Secondary indicators continue to look up:
- Dalcindo
Re: PUDA - 3Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
PUDA continues to test overhead resistance. While weekly RSI does not show any commitment to the bullish range, as the predominant trend as of late has dwelled within the 40-60 sideways range.
However, buying pressure is showed in the A/D, OBV and ChiOsc lines. These indicators may possibly indicate an early directional trend, although I would personally wait for some trend reversal signals from the daily or weekly RSI, IMHO:
- Dalcindo
Re: PUDA - 3Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
PUDA continues to test overhead resistance. While weekly RSI does not show any commitment to the bullish range, as the predominant trend as of late has dwelled within the 40-60 sideways range.
However, buying pressure is showed in the A/D, OBV and ChiOsc lines. These indicators may possibly indicate an early directional trend, although I would personally wait for some trend reversal signals from the daily or weekly RSI, IMHO:
- Dalcindo
Re: PUDA
Weekly and Daily RSI's are showing some fatigue from recent rally. Watch out.
- Dalcindo
Re: SBUX
Hi, 3x!!!
Did you mean 50-EMA is the resistance? There seems to be some directional consistency with the 50 over the 100-EMA.
In any case, rally seems to fatigue a bit.
D.
Re: SOLF
10.5 = solid support
12.25 = Serious resistance
IMHO
- Dalcindo
Re: SOLF
Hi, Baggers!
Thank you for the recall. I like to see that the TA held pretty good. 100% since the analysis. NIiiice.
- Dalcindo
Re: $MSWORLD ex USA, $MSEAFE (Developed countries), and $MSEMF (Emerging Markets)
Below are charts of Morgan Stanley Investment International (MSCI) indices on world markets, excluding USA (" $MSWORLD"); that of developed countries, including Europe, Australasia, and Far East (",$MSEAFE"); and that of Emerging Markets (" $MSEMF")- These indices encompass the vast majority of world markets (about 98%).
A few factoids:
1 - While the US market represents about 2/5 of the world markets, that of developed countries represents another 2/5, and that of emerging markets (formerly "developing countries") represents the last 1/5 portion;
2 - While portfolio managers use the $SPX to compare performance against specific financial assets (usually domestic), international asset performance is gauged against these other two indices, depending upon the predominant weigh given to US domestic, developed, or emerging markets.
Some important technical points about the charts:
1 - Values are expressed at market close (EOD) - While the candle will remain the same until the market close that day, it will acquire a new shape only upon market close on the next day. You veterans know this, but this is a humble reminder to the more novice traders out there.
2 - Weekly intervals were chosen over daily or monthly time frames to best balance between crucial market commitments against noisy market reactions. Once the week closes, we are assuming that the candle reflects the sum total commitment of world positions for the underlying index for that week;
3 - A period of 5 year should encompass most relevant cycles and year-over-year technical reactions;
4 - The index is represented within the top, main chart;
5 - A relative strength expression of the index vs. the $SPX (e.g.: $MSWORLD:$SPX) appears in black line underneath the main chart;
6 - The underlying index and $SPX each appear superimposed over one another OVER the said black line of their relative strength, in order to reinforce this comparative visual study.
Last points:
a) All questions or requests will be entertained as time permitting in private messaging (preferably);
b) These charts have been newly added on PAGE 9 within the following organization: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281 ;
c) Your vote is special to me. It nourishes the motivation that feeds the brain that nurtures the passion behind these charts.
Best trading to you, my friend.
Your friendly technician,
- Dalcindo
PS: Anyone noted that both world market (i.e.: as a total sum) and developed countries indices have an RSI that recently confirmed a BEARISH reversal, whereas that of developing countries index has posted a BULLISH confirmation. Just saying ... (wink, wink)
MSCI World (ex USA) Index (EOD) ($MSWORLD) - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
MSCI EAFE Index (EOD) ($MSEAFE) - Developed Countries - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
MSCI Emerging Markets Free Index (EOD) ($MSEMF) - Emerging Markets - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: $MSWORLD ex USA, $MSEAFE (Developed countries), and $MSEMF (Emerging Markets)
Below are charts of Morgan Stanley Investment International (MSCI) indices on world markets, excluding USA ("$MSWORLD"); that of developed countries, including Europe, Australasia, and Far East ("MSEAFE"); and that of Emerging Markets ("$MSEMF")- These indices encompass the vast majority of world markets (about 98%).
A few factoids:
1 - While the US market represents about 2/5 of the world markets, that of developed countries represents another 2/5, and that of emerging markets (formerly "developing countries") represents the last 1/5 portion;
2 - While portfolio managers use the $SPX to compare performance against specific financial assets (usually domestic), international asset performance are gauged against these other two indices, depending upon the weigh given to US domestic, developed, or emerging markets.
Some important technical points about the charts:
1 - Values are expressed at market close (EOD)
2 - Weekly intervals are chosen to balance crucial moves against noisy reaction. Once the week closes, the candle reflects the sum total commitment of world positions for the underlying index for that week;
3 - A period of 5 year should encompass most relevant cycles and year-over-year technical reactions
4 - The index is represented within the top, main chart;
5 - A relative strength expression of the index vs. the $SPX (e.g.: $MSWORLD:$SPX) appears in black line underneath the main chart;
6 - The index and $SPX each appear superimposed with one another, under the relative strength, in order to reinforce this comparative visual study.
Last points:
a) All questions and requests will be entertain time permitting.
b) These charts have been newly added on PAGE 9 within the following organization: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281
c) Your vote is special to me. It nourishes the motivation that feeds the brain that nurtures the passion behind these charts.
Best trading to you, my friend.
Your friendly technician,
- Dalcindo
PS: Anyone noted that both world market as a total sum and developed countries indices have an RSI that recently confirmed a BEARISH reversal, whereas that of developing country index has posted a BULLISH confirmation. Just saying ... (wing, wink)
MSCI World (ex USA) Index (EOD) ($MSWORLD) - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
MSCI EAFE Index (EOD) ($MSEAFE) - Developed Countries - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
MSCI Emerging Markets Free Index (EOD) ($MSEMF) - Emerging Markets - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: SBUX - Solid support confirmed; significant resistance overhead ...
14-RSI in $SBUX 's WEEKLY chart just finished registering a double-bottom. Combined with positive signals in CCI, Wm%R and CMF, and sustained buying pressure in A/D, OBV and ChiOsc lines, all pointing towards $24.00 as solid support.
Note though that a serious overhead resistance at $28.35 may represent the next significant hurdle, IMHO:
- Dalcindo
Re: SBUX - Solid support confirmed; significant resistance overhead ...
14-RSI in $SBUX 's WEEKLY chart just finished registering a double-bottom. Combined with positive signals in CCI, Wm%R and CMF, and sustained buying pressure in A/D, OBV and ChiOsc lines, all pointing towards $24.00 as solid support.
Note though that a serious overhead resistance at $28.35 may represent the next significant hurdle, IMHO:
- Dalcindo
Re: ARIA
Nice. Resistance turned support so far. 50-MA still a trailing resistance, though. Needs to peel off of it for good.
D.
Re: UUP
A lot of the forex experts are expecting a continued decline in the USD. Howeve, the charts are pointing to a near-completion of UUP's contact with supports. Additionally, secondary indicators are lining up into a pre-rally pattern.
So, to remain purely technical, I stay the current long expectation for the UUP. HOWEVER, failure of said supports to hold will not only come with no other solid support for the USD, but it may redefine a new economy for a yet more depressed value.
This week may provide some direction.
D.
Re: UUP
A lot of the forex expert are expecting a continue decline in the USD. Howeve, the charts are pointing to a near-completion of UUP's contact with supports. Additionally, secondary indicators are lining up into a pre-rally pattern.
So, to remain purely technical, I stay the current long expectation for the UUP. HOWEVER, failure of said supports to hold will not only come with no other solid support for the USD, but it may redefine a new economy for a yet more depressed value.
This week may provide some direction.
D.
Re: UUP vs. UDN Funds; XEU vs. USD Indices
(UUP vs. = Bullish vs.Bearish USD Funds)
UUP is nearing its significant 61.8% retracement level, thus targetting significant support at the $23.48 level.
Inversely, and as technically important, UDN is nearing its daily 200-EMA resistance level. The last time this bearish fund neared this significant trendline, it defined a bearish trend for this bearish fund, i.e.: signaled a bullish trend for the dollar.
A similar technical event is occuring in the relative expression of the indices: XEU vs. USD, whose charting below approaches a significant Fib retracement of 38.2%.
Combined, the convergence of these three technical events point towards a favorable support for USD. If this support failed, we would witness a bearish confirmation for the greenback.
- Dalcindo
- Dalcindo