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US = Bad means Europe = Terrible =
means US = Good. LOL
D.
Oh, no. I hope you are recovering well. We need you around here. I don't post much, but I still keep on lurking and reading your board.
Keep it and your health up!
Feel free to PM me on meds stuff if you have any question - You know I'm a physician, right? Not to brag, but I know my stuff and I love sharing medical knowledge.
D.
Hi, Lang! How have you been? Nice to see such a teeming and active board.
Here nothing much. Working a lot on Forex; doing some occasionall housekeeping on my stocks.
What's been going on in your life?
- D.
$SPX - A Bull In A Stack Of Hay?
Hi, 3x!
Depending on the time frame, there is a quite a wide range of definable support for this benchmark. The good news is that the recent bearish pressure is tapering off, and the SPX's SML, MID charts are also pointing towards a tapering of the recent downtrend.
From a purely structural standpoint, there remains some room for the bear trend to reverse (See: Chart #1 below, where historical structural levels are defined)
From a harmonics standpoint, I would consider significant support to occur at the convergence of two historically significant Fib levels (See: Chart #2 below). This chart also prints a speculative uptrend channel with a bullish 5-0 pattern formation.
While all this bullish line, trends, patterns are drawn early in the move, the predominant trends remain bearish for now, with 145-STO and institutional selling pressures per A/D, OBV and ChiOs still dwelling under their 21-EMA's.
The SP 500 SPDRs's is barely validating the bottom of a speculative uptrend channel, with a narrow positive RSI divergence and a 144-STO still in the bullish range. But, until the price escape the lower portion of the downtrend channel and continues to validate the bullish channel, then the market will likely convert bears into rising bulls, IMHO.
OVERALL - While weekly and monthly charts are prematurely signaling a bullish reversal, the terrain underneath remains soft and uncertain, and the predominant trend still favor a selling market. One indicator of such uncertainty is SPX's Bullish Percent Index (See: Chart #4 below), where all three major indices found residence in the bearish end of the spectrum, as the predominant market sentiment remains guarded, and any optimistic outlook still has to compare against the current economic realities of Europe, the US, and a failing Asian market - Hint, and off-subject: China sits on the largest real estate bubble with no internal consumptive force and tethered to it a dependent Asian market of suppliers. If we get a cold, they get the Flu.
So, if there is a bullish market out there, it's still hiding, IMHO.
Chart #1: $SPX: WEEKLY
Chart #2: $SPX - 5-Yr., Weekly Chart
Chart #3: SPY (SP 500 SPDRs) - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart: 15 MAY 09
Chart #4: S&P 500, INDU, COMPQ: Bullish Percent Indices (EOD) - 05 OCT 2010
All in my honest opinion.
- Dalcindo
$SPX - A Bull In A Stack Of Hay?
Depending on the time frame, there is a quite a wide range of definable support for this benchmark. The good news is that the recent bearish pressure is tapering off, and the SPX's SML, MID charts are also pointing towards a tapering of the recent downtrend.
From a purely structural standpoint, there remains some room for the bear trend to reverse (See: Chart #1 below, where historical structural levels are defined)
From a harmonics standpoint, I would consider significant support to occur at the convergence of two historically significant Fib levels (See: Chart #2 below). This chart also prints a speculative uptrend channel with a bullish 5-0 pattern formation.
While all this bullish line, trends, patterns are drawn early in the move, the predominant trends remain bearish for now, with 145-STO and institutional selling pressures per A/D, OBV and ChiOs still dwelling under their 21-EMA's.
The SP 500 SPDRs's is barely validating the bottom of a speculative uptrend channel, with a narrow positive RSI divergence and a 144-STO still in the bullish range. But, until the price escape the lower portion of the downtrend channel and continues to validate the bullish channel, then the market will likely convert bears into rising bulls, IMHO.
OVERALL - While weekly and monthly charts are prematurely signaling a bullish reversal, the terrain underneath remains soft and uncertain, and the predominant trend still favor a selling market. One indicator of such uncertainty is SPX's Bullish Percent Index (See: Chart #4 below), where all three major indices found residence in the bearish end of the spectrum, as the predominant market sentiment remains guarded, and any optimistic outlook still has to compare against the current economic realities of Europe, the US, and a failing Asian market - Hint, and off-subject: China sits on the largest real estate bubble with no internal consumptive force and tethered to it a dependent Asian market of suppliers. If we get a cold, they get the Flu.
So, if there is a bullish market out there, it's still hiding, IMHO.
Chart #1: $SPX: WEEKLY
Chart #2: $SPX - 5-Yr., Weekly Chart
Chart #3: SPY (SP 500 SPDRs) - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart: 15 MAY 09
Chart #4: S&P 500, INDU, COMPQ: Bullish Percent Indices (EOD) - 05 OCT 2010
All in my honest opinion.
- Dalcindo
LOL. No, not really a stretch LoanWolf. I use the structures and harmonics as a blind man would a stick. At the end, I agree with you that market manipulations and superseding forces will trump anything else. I am of the suspicious, paranoid kind that believes that my sell/buy orders are "absorbed" into a larger algo that robots and smarter systems out there are constantly outweighing the bears vs. bulls to extract the most money, running stop losses like an avalanche, then resuming the prior trend as if nothing ever was.
So, not much of a stretch when measured against my own paranoia.
Or is it.
- Dalcindo
Aloha to you too my friend!
D.
$SPX - Structures/Harmonics: 5-Yr., Weekly
Structural Analysis/Harmonics:
- Upper half of bullish channel formed; recent bearish pressure suggest likely visit into the lower half going forward;
- Fib confluence provides a solid support at the $1,015-1.020 range;
- BULLISH 5-0 Pattern points to an ultimate support for the current bearish trend with D = $837.00.
$SPX - Weekly Candlesticks
- Dalcindo
$SPX - Structures/Harmonics: 5-Yr., Weekly
Structural Analysis/Harmonics:
- Upper half of bullish channel formed; recent bearish pressure suggest likely visit into the lower half going forward;
- Fib confluence provides a solid support at the $1,015-1.020 range;
- BULLISH 5-0 Pattern points to an ultimate support for the current bearish trend with D = $837.00.
$SPX - Weekly Candlesticks
- Dalcindo
Hi, Stuffit.
Mostly Forex trading recently, and spending time away from forum, except for longer timeframe charts.
See you around.
- Dalcindo
AAPL - Down to $210?
07 OCT 2011 - TECH-NOTE:
Market topped shy of $425. Now, the structural and harmonics indicate the following BEARISH points:
1 - 14-RSI's 14,45-EMA's marked internal weakness
2 - Volume loss corroborate RSI signal
3 - Institutional indicators suggest start of selling trend
- OVERALL: Expect decline to Fib confluence in the $205-210 area.
a - AAPL - 10-Year, Monthly
- Dalcindo
AAPL - Down to $210?
07 OCT 2011 - TECH-NOTE:
Market topped shy of $425. Now, the structural and harmonics indicate the following BEARISH points:
1 - 14-RSI's 14,45-EMA's marked internal weakness
2 - Volume loss corroborate RSI signal
3 - Institutional indicators suggest start of selling trend
- OVERALL: Expect decline to Fib confluence in the $205-210 area.
a - AAPL - 10-Year, Monthly
- Dalcindo
Hi, Jimmybob!
Thank you for your positive feedback. Very much appreciated.
- Dalcindo
USD - Rally to $102.00? Don't Laugh:
Gold peaked and reached our second technical target with no less than a twizzer top to clearly herald a subsequent drop.
At the same time, a Gartley pattern has formed on the long term 15-Year, Monthly $USD, with a BULLISH Line-Up from the 5,145-Slow Stochastics and no less impressive than a double-bottom signal from the RSI right at its bullish level of 40. Could there be anything more loud and clear?
This scenario may become more plausible if the USD breaks above $82.7. The current candle shot right at the 38.2% of recent rally, thus favoring a continuation of the (major) downtrend. However, a push above the $82.70 level would give the earliest indication of a serious trend reversal, and the Gartley pattern could provide a reliable trajectory path going forward.
Highly premature and speculative?
- Yes.
Ridiculous?
- No.
013 - $USD - 15-Year, MONTHLY Chart - 12 SEP 08
012 - $GOLD - 20-Year, Monthly Chart - 23 FEB 2010
- Dalcindo
USD - Rally to $102.00? Don't Laugh:
Gold peaked and reached our second technical target with no less than a twizzer top to clearly herald a subsequent drop.
At the same time, a Gartley pattern has formed on the long term 15-Year, Monthly $USD, with a BULLISH Line-Up from the 5,145-Slow Stochastics and no less impressive than a double-bottom signal from the RSI right at its bullish level of 40. Could there be anything more loud and clear?
This scenario may become more plausible if the USD breaks above $82.7. The current candle shot right at the 38.2% of recent rally, thus favoring a continuation of the (major) downtrend. However, a push above the $82.70 level would give the earliest indication of a serious trend reversal, and the Gartley pattern could provide a reliable trajectory path going forward.
Highly premature and speculative?
- Yes.
Ridiculous?
- No.
013 - $USD - 15-Year, MONTHLY Chart - 12 SEP 08
012 - $GOLD - 20-Year, Monthly Chart - 23 FEB 2010
- Dalcindo
S&P 500: $SML - BEARISH 5-0 Pattern: Speculative Advanced Pattern Formation:
25 SEP 2011 - TECH-NOTE:
Watch for 315 and 225 at two significant harmonic convergence levels. Additionally, I'd pay particular attention to the advanced pattern formation below, which carries a high probability of completion and expected price reaction (Bearish in this case):
BEARISH 5-0 PATTERN:
As of this date, the 0,X,A,B points have preliminarily defined the price points expected for a BEARISH 5-0 PATTERN. Expect C to extend between 1.618 and 2.240 of AB, and D to define the 50% point of BC. Therefore, the pattern is not finished. C will define D, and D will point to a high probability decline.
003 b - $SPX: $SML - 10-Yr., Monthly Chart - 25 APR 2009
- Dalcindo
More of these charts on my public list list at stockcharts.com
S&P 500: $SML - BEARISH 5-0 Pattern: Speculative Advanced Pattern Formation:
25 SEP 2011 - TECH-NOTE:
Watch for 315 and 225 at two significant harmonic convergence levels. Additionally, I'd pay particular attention to the advanced pattern formation below, which carries a high probability of completion and expected price reaction (Bearish in this case):
BEARISH 5-0 PATTERN:
As of this date, the 0,X,A,B points have preliminarily defined the price points expected for a BEARISH 5-0 PATTERN. Expect C to extend between 1.618 and 2.240 of AB, and D to define the 50% point of BC. Therefore, the pattern is not finished. C will define D, and D will point to a high probability decline.
003 b - $SPX: $SML - 10-Yr., Monthly Chart - 25 APR 2009
- Dalcindo
More of these charts on my public list list at stockcharts.com
Re: Bearish Crab vs. Bearish Bat Patterns
Hi, xnxsxx!
No. Not a mistake.
The bearish bat pattern initiates with a similar X-A, A-B, B-C pattern, except for one important distinction: The B point in the Bat never should exceed the 50% X-A retracement.
Once this 50% X-A retracement occurs, the A-B retracement to C is allowed to range between 38.2% to 88.2%.
Finally, a second distinguising feature is where D ends. As you mentioned, in the Crab Pattern, D does extend beyond the X-A in the range of 224% to 361.8%. However, the Bat pattern considers only ONE precise point for D to complete the pattern, which is found at the 88.6% retracement of X-A.
OVERALL:
Of the two pattern, the Bat Pattern requires a more regid set of rules (e.g.: narrower X-A retracement for B and a single point of reversal for D), but makes for the most strictly precise definition of a Potential Reversal Zone (Mr. Carney of Harmonic Trader created the pattern in 2001. His website (www.harmonictrader.com) has plenty of resources on Crab, Butterfly, Gartley, AB=CD, "Three Drives" and the newer 5-0 Pattern.
- Dalcindo
SPX - 18 SEP 2011: Harmonics Development
Consider these harmonic developments:
- Persistent BEARISH Gartley Pattern on MONTHLY Chart #2
- NEW (albeit premature) formation of a BEARISH Crab pattern (Validation of XA extension at B = 50.0% AND B extension at C = 38.2% - Dotted line speculates a XA extension at D = 88.6%
Resistance expected at the confluence of prior consolidation levels combined with structures at $1,320.
Support as indicated in chart in Chart #2 below:
Chart #1 - S&P, Nasdaq, DJIA - DAILY Chart:
Chart #2 - $SPX - 10Yr., Monthly Chart:
- Dalcindo
SPX - 18 SEP 2011: Harmonics Development
Consider these harmonic developments:
- Persistent BEARISH Gartley Pattern on MONTHLY Chart #2
- NEW (albeit premature) formation of a BEARISH Crab pattern (Validation of XA extension at B = 50.0% AND B extension at C = 38.2% - Dotted line speculates a XA extension at D = 88.6%
Resistance expected at the confluence of prior consolidation levels combined with structures at $1,320.
Support as indicated in chart in Chart #2 below:
Chart #1 - S&P, Nasdaq, DJIA - DAILY Chart:
Chart #2 - $SPX - 10Yr., Monthly Chart:
- Dalcindo
SPX - Follow-Up
FYI - Added significant Fib levels onto bearish Gartley pattern:
(Chart from: my stockchart public list)
- Dalcindo
SPX - Added Fib Target - Still BEARISH
FYI - Added significant Fib levels onto bearish Gartley pattern:
(Chart from: my stockchart public list)
- Dalcindo
SPX - Follow-Up
FYI - Added significant Fib levels onto bearish Gartley pattern:
(Chart from: my stockchart public list)
- Dalcindo
GOLD - Eyeing $1,740.00
Prior two targets were successfully reached - see page 5 on my StockCharts.com public list (link in signature) for greater tech details.
While these numbers keep looking bigger, they may in fact be nothing compared to the possibility of doubling expectation from some trader friends of mine, especially as some once safe haven currencies are losing their luster (e.g.: USE, EUR, JPY), and developing countries economies are stalling with the rest of the world.
In other words, as the choice to channel all the capital flows diminish, risk aversion increase, demand for liquidity decrease and expectation of a more stable index increases. So, gold presents as the most obvious contender. I expect this crowd psychology to gain momentum, IMHO.
I do not have any position in gold, but look at the metal for directional sentiments when trading other risk-responsive Forex pairs (e.g.: JPY, CHF).
- Dalcindo
GOLD - Eyeing $1,740.00
Prior two targets were successfully reached - see page 5 on my StockCharts.com public list (link in signature) for greater tech details.
While these numbers keep looking bigger, they may in fact be nothing compared to the possibility of doubling expectation from some trader friends of mine, especially as some once safe haven currencies are losing their luster (e.g.: USE, EUR, JPY), and developing countries economies are stalling with the rest of the world.
In other words, as the choice to channel all the capital flows diminish, risk aversion increase, demand for liquidity decrease and expectation of a more stable index increases. So, gold presents as the most obvious contender. I expect this crowd psychology to gain momentum, IMHO.
I do not have any position in gold, but look at the metal for directional sentiments when trading other risk-responsive Forex pairs (e.g.: JPY, CHF).
Thank you for the links.
- Dalcindo
These sound like really good buys.
Not sure about underlying Italian motivation. Lots of shady politics I assume gets discounted into the technical analysis.
Will keep an eye out on the events - Appreciate your insight.
- Dalcindor
No question about it.
D.
True. It's all politics and fear of the unknown (living with an inferior rating, that is) ... Packaged in a well synchronized fashion. Next diversion? Watch for more dire economic and geopolitical development in the middle east to smooth things over.
"wagging the tail"
- Dalcindo
Hi RTN. I agree on suspicious timing being a purist in TA: It does seem like news releases, downgrades, etc seem to occur as if to "fit the curve". But then again, it's all in the way markets are allowed to act/react and move in an controlled and orderly fashion. Rating agencies still remain pretty reliable in sizing up the damages and provide accurate ratings.
Nonetheless, until we have an alternate and liquid index reserve other than the USD, I believe that risk aversion will channel support towards the Dollar. But then again, gold (less liquid), Swiss (less understood), and the Yen (less trusted recovery), or the Yuan (less transparent) are the best contenders for now.
- Dalcindo
Lol. Isn't that something. Investors are demanding greater interest prior to lending to Italian government. Yet, the reports show that if it were not for the increase in bond costs, the Italian banks are actually in the green.
Investors look at Italy as too close to the Mediterranean mess: Spain, Portugal and Greece.
Moody and S&P are right on, though. Too many little messes across Europe.
Forex offers great technical ops right now, IMHO.
- Dalcindo.
Lol. Hi Lang! Hiding deep in the green Forex. Your board is booming. Good to read from so many great ideas and traders out there.
- Dalcindo
SPX - Don't Ignore Mr. Gartley!
As a quick recall, last Jun 23 (See Post # 2130 ), we called a bearish signal on the SPX - In the interim, we also printed a bearish Gartley pattern.
Now, look for "scaffolding breakdown" as the benchmark continues to take out softening support levels. The crowd turned against the SPX, and the crowd sentiment reciprocates is likely to find a self-fulfilling prophetic event. So, watch out. Or, "Timber!" like they say up north.
... See Post# on my "Stock Incubator" for more telling bearish indicators: Post # 2130 - Check out my public charts on Stockcharts for greater details on this and other indices, stocks, forex. Votes are always appreciated. Thank you.
- Dalcindo
-------------------------------------------------------------------
IN REPLY TO:
dalcindo Member Profile dalcindo Member Level
Share Thursday, June 23, 2011 2:55:49 PM
Re: dalcindo post# 2064 Post # of 2131
SPX - BEARISH:
I thought it timely to provide a quick technical note of the recent structural development, especially as classic patterns have emerged, and the overall picture remains in line with our prior bearish view - All this on a monthly chart, although more sensitive trend reversals (albeit less specific) may have emerged on weekly charts as well.
23 JUN 11 - TECH-NOTE:
Significant changes have occured at this point, namely:
1 - RSI completed a bearish confirmation in the month of MAY
2 - Price completed a (classic) BEARISH Gartley pattern at significant Fib levels
3 - Secondary indicators are lining-up into a bearish signal
OVERALL - BEARISH outlook
SPX - Recall
As a quick recall, last Jun 23, we called a bearish signal on the SPX - In the interim, we also printed a bearish Gartley pattern.
Now, look for "scaffolding breakdown" as the benchmark continues to take out softening support levels. The crowd turned against the SPX, and the crowd sentiment reciprocates is likely to find a self-fulfilling prophetic event. So, watch out. Or, "Timber!" like they say up north.
... See Post# on my "Stock Incubator" for more telling bearish indicators: Post # 2130 - Check out my public charts on Stockcharts for greater details on this and other indices, stocks, forex. Votes are always appreciated. Thank you.
- Dalcindo
-------------------------------------------------------------------
IN REPLY TO:
dalcindo Member Profile dalcindo Member Level
Share Thursday, June 23, 2011 2:55:49 PM
Re: dalcindo post# 2064 Post # of 2131
SPX - BEARISH:
I thought it timely to provide a quick technical note of the recent structural development, especially as classic patterns have emerged, and the overall picture remains in line with our prior bearish view - All this on a monthly chart, although more sensitive trend reversals (albeit less specific) may have emerged on weekly charts as well.
23 JUN 11 - TECH-NOTE:
Significant changes have occured at this point, namely:
1 - RSI completed a bearish confirmation in the month of MAY
2 - Price completed a (classic) BEARISH Gartley pattern at significant Fib levels
3 - Secondary indicators are lining-up into a bearish signal
OVERALL - BEARISH outlook
SPX - Recall
As a quick recall, last Jun 23, we called a bearish signal on the SPX - In the interim, we also printed a bearish Gartley pattern.
Now, look for "scaffolding breakdown" as the benchmark continues to take out softening support levels. The crowd turned against the SPX, and the crowd sentiment reciprocates is likely to find a self-fulfilling prophetic event. So, watch out. Or, "Timber!" like they say up north.
... See link for more telling bearish indicators: post# 2130
- Dalcindo
-------------------------------------------------------------------
IN REPLY TO:
dalcindo Member Profile dalcindo Member Level
Share Thursday, June 23, 2011 2:55:49 PM
Re: dalcindo post# 2064 Post # of 2131
SPX - BEARISH:
I thought it timely to provide a quick technical note of the recent structural development, especially as classic patterns have emerged, and the overall picture remains in line with our prior bearish view - All this on a monthly chart, although more sensitive trend reversals (albeit less specific) may have emerged on weekly charts as well.
23 JUN 11 - TECH-NOTE:
Significant changes have occured at this point, namely:
1 - RSI completed a bearish confirmation in the month of MAY
2 - Price completed a (classic) BEARISH Gartley pattern at significant Fib levels
3 - Secondary indicators are lining-up into a bearish signal
OVERALL - BEARISH outlook
Re: SPX
Agreed. Also, historically, 1150-level has established some serious resistance in the past (likely as a psychological level).
D.
SPX - BEARISH:
I thought it timely to provide a quick technical note of the recent structural development, especially as classic patterns have emerged, and the overall picture remains in line with our prior bearish view - All this on a monthly chart, although more sensitive trend reversals (albeit less specific) may have emerged on weekly charts as well.
23 JUN 11 - TECH-NOTE:
Significant changes have occured at this point, namely:
1 - RSI completed a bearish confirmation in the month of MAY
2 - Price completed a (classic) BEARISH Gartley pattern at significant Fib levels
3 - Secondary indicators are lining-up into a bearish signal
OVERALL - BEARISH outlook
BULLISH PERCENT CHART:
RISK FLOW MAP
$SPX - 10-Year, WEEKLY Chart:
$SML - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
$SML - 10-Yr, MONTHLY Chart:
$MID - 3-Yr, WEEKLY Chart:
$MID - 10_Yr, MONTHLY Chart:
90+ other charts publicly listed on StockCharts.com here: http://bit.ly/mF3lhy
Your vote is always appreciated. Thank you.
- Dalcindo
SPX - A Quick (BEARISH) Review:
In continuation with our prior bearish outlook (see technical analysis of message "in reply"), I thought it timely to provide a quick technical note of the recent structural development, especially as classic patterns have emerged, and the overall picture remains in line with our prior bearish view - All this on a monthly chart, although more sensitive trend reversals (albeit less specific) may have emerged on weekly charts as well.
23 JUN 11 - TECH-NOTE:
Significant changes have occured at this point, namely:
1 - RSI completed a bearish confirmation in the month of MAY
2 - Price completed a (classic) BEARISH Gartley pattern at significant Fib levels
3 - Secondary indicators are lining-up into a bearish signal
OVERALL - BEARISH outlook
BULLISH PERCENT CHART:
RISK FLOW MAP
$SPX - 10-Year, WEEKLY Chart:
$SML - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
$SML - 10-Yr, MONTHLY Chart:
$MID - 3-Yr, WEEKLY Chart:
$MID - 10_Yr, MONTHLY Chart:
90+ other charts publicly listed on StockCharts.com here: http://bit.ly/mF3lhy
Your vote is always appreciated. Thank you.
- Dalcindo
SPX - A Quick (BEARISH) Review:
In continuation with our prior bearish outlook (see technical analysis of message "in reply"), I thought it timely to provide a quick technical note of the recent structural development, especially as classic patterns have emerged, and the overall picture remains in line with our prior bearish view - All this on a monthly chart, although more sensitive trend reversals (albeit less specific) may have emerged on weekly charts as well.
23 JUN 11 - TECH-NOTE:
Significant changes have occured at this point, namely:
1 - RSI completed a bearish confirmation in the month of MAY
2 - Price completed a (classic) BEARISH Gartley pattern at significant Fib levels
3 - Secondary indicators are lining-up into a bearish signal
OVERALL - BEARISH outlook
BULLISH PERCENT CHART:
RISK FLOW MAP
$SPX - 10-Year, WEEKLY Chart:
$SML - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
$SML - 10-Yr, MONTHLY Chart:
$MID - 3-Yr, WEEKLY Chart:
$MID - 10_Yr, MONTHLY Chart:
90+ other charts publicly listed on StockCharts.com here: http://bit.ly/mF3lhy
Your vote is always appreciated. Thank you.
- Dalcindo