News 
Market Data 
Discover
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
$SPX - A Bull In A Stack Of Hay?
Depending on the time frame, there is a quite a wide range of definable support for this benchmark. The good news is that the recent bearish pressure is tapering off, and the SPX's SML, MID charts are also pointing towards a tapering of the recent downtrend.
From a purely structural standpoint, there remains some room for the bear trend to reverse (See: Chart #1 below, where historical structural levels are defined)
From a harmonics standpoint, I would consider significant support to occur at the convergence of two historically significant Fib levels (See: Chart #2 below). This chart also prints a speculative uptrend channel with a bullish 5-0 pattern formation.
While all this bullish line, trends, patterns are drawn early in the move, the predominant trends remain bearish for now, with 145-STO and institutional selling pressures per A/D, OBV and ChiOs still dwelling under their 21-EMA's.
The SP 500 SPDRs's is barely validating the bottom of a speculative uptrend channel, with a narrow positive RSI divergence and a 144-STO still in the bullish range. But, until the price escape the lower portion of the downtrend channel and continues to validate the bullish channel, then the market will likely convert bears into rising bulls, IMHO.
OVERALL - While weekly and monthly charts are prematurely signaling a bullish reversal, the terrain underneath remains soft and uncertain, and the predominant trend still favor a selling market. One indicator of such uncertainty is SPX's Bullish Percent Index (See: Chart #4 below), where all three major indices found residence in the bearish end of the spectrum, as the predominant market sentiment remains guarded, and any optimistic outlook still has to compare against the current economic realities of Europe, the US, and a failing Asian market - Hint, and off-subject: China sits on the largest real estate bubble with no internal consumptive force and tethered to it a dependent Asian market of suppliers. If we get a cold, they get the Flu.
So, if there is a bullish market out there, it's still hiding, IMHO.
Chart #1: $SPX: WEEKLY
Chart #2: $SPX - 5-Yr., Weekly Chart
Chart #3: SPY (SP 500 SPDRs) - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart: 15 MAY 09
Chart #4: S&P 500, INDU, COMPQ: Bullish Percent Indices (EOD) - 05 OCT 2010
All in my honest opinion.
- Dalcindo
$SPX - Structures/Harmonics: 5-Yr., Weekly
Structural Analysis/Harmonics:
- Upper half of bullish channel formed; recent bearish pressure suggest likely visit into the lower half going forward;
- Fib confluence provides a solid support at the $1,015-1.020 range;
- BULLISH 5-0 Pattern points to an ultimate support for the current bearish trend with D = $837.00.
$SPX - Weekly Candlesticks
- Dalcindo
AAPL - Down to $210?
07 OCT 2011 - TECH-NOTE:
Market topped shy of $425. Now, the structural and harmonics indicate the following BEARISH points:
1 - 14-RSI's 14,45-EMA's marked internal weakness
2 - Volume loss corroborate RSI signal
3 - Institutional indicators suggest start of selling trend
- OVERALL: Expect decline to Fib confluence in the $205-210 area.
a - AAPL - 10-Year, Monthly
- Dalcindo
USD - Rally to $102.00? Don't Laugh:
Gold peaked and reached our second technical target with no less than a twizzer top to clearly herald a subsequent drop.
At the same time, a Gartley pattern has formed on the long term 15-Year, Monthly $USD, with a BULLISH Line-Up from the 5,145-Slow Stochastics and no less impressive than a double-bottom signal from the RSI right at its bullish level of 40. Could there be anything more loud and clear?
This scenario may become more plausible if the USD breaks above $82.7. The current candle shot right at the 38.2% of recent rally, thus favoring a continuation of the (major) downtrend. However, a push above the $82.70 level would give the earliest indication of a serious trend reversal, and the Gartley pattern could provide a reliable trajectory path going forward.
Highly premature and speculative?
- Yes.
Ridiculous?
- No.
013 - $USD - 15-Year, MONTHLY Chart - 12 SEP 08
012 - $GOLD - 20-Year, Monthly Chart - 23 FEB 2010
- Dalcindo
SPX - BEARISH 5-0 Pattern: Harmonics Development - Correction:
MONTHLY chart (see link) does NOT illustrate a BEARISH GARTLEY, but a BEARISH 5-0 PATTERN instead. Sorry if I created any confusion. Here is a WEEKLY chart of the same with the right pattern:
002 - $SPX: WEEKLY
- Dalcindo
S&P 500: $SML - BEARISH 5-0 Pattern: Speculative Advanced Pattern Formation:
25 SEP 2011 - TECH-NOTE:
Watch for 315 and 225 at two significant harmonic convergence levels. Additionally, I'd pay particular attention to the advanced pattern formation below, which carries a high probability of completion and expected price reaction (Bearish in this case):
BEARISH 5-0 PATTERN:
As of this date, the 0,X,A,B points have preliminarily defined the price points expected for a BEARISH 5-0 PATTERN. Expect C to extend between 1.618 and 2.240 of AB, and D to define the 50% point of BC. Therefore, the pattern is not finished. C will define D, and D will point to a high probability decline.
003 b - $SPX: $SML - 10-Yr., Monthly Chart - 25 APR 2009
- Dalcindo
More of these charts on my public list list at stockcharts.com
SPX - 18 SEP 2011: Harmonics Development
Consider these harmonic developments:
- Persistent BEARISH Gartley Pattern on MONTHLY Chart #2
- NEW (albeit premature) formation of a BEARISH Crab pattern (Validation of XA extension at B = 50.0% AND B extension at C = 38.2% - Dotted line speculates a XA extension at D = 88.6%
Resistance expected at the confluence of prior consolidation levels combined with structures at $1,320.
Support as indicated in chart in Chart #2 below:
Chart #1 - S&P, Nasdaq, DJIA - DAILY Chart:
Chart #2 - $SPX - 10Yr., Monthly Chart:
- Dalcindo
SPX - Follow-Up
FYI - Added significant Fib levels onto bearish Gartley pattern:
(Chart from: my stockchart public list)
- Dalcindo
SPX - Recall
As a quick recall, last Jun 23, we called a bearish signal on the SPX - In the interim, we also printed a bearish Gartley pattern.
Now, look for "scaffolding breakdown" as the benchmark continues to take out softening support levels. The crowd turned against the SPX, and the crowd sentiment reciprocates is likely to find a self-fulfilling prophetic event. So, watch out. Or, "Timber!" like they say up north.
... See link for more telling bearish indicators: post# 2130
- Dalcindo
-------------------------------------------------------------------
IN REPLY TO:
dalcindo Member Profile dalcindo Member Level
Share Thursday, June 23, 2011 2:55:49 PM
Re: dalcindo post# 2064 Post # of 2131
SPX - BEARISH:
I thought it timely to provide a quick technical note of the recent structural development, especially as classic patterns have emerged, and the overall picture remains in line with our prior bearish view - All this on a monthly chart, although more sensitive trend reversals (albeit less specific) may have emerged on weekly charts as well.
23 JUN 11 - TECH-NOTE:
Significant changes have occured at this point, namely:
1 - RSI completed a bearish confirmation in the month of MAY
2 - Price completed a (classic) BEARISH Gartley pattern at significant Fib levels
3 - Secondary indicators are lining-up into a bearish signal
OVERALL - BEARISH outlook
SPX - BEARISH:
I thought it timely to provide a quick technical note of the recent structural development, especially as classic patterns have emerged, and the overall picture remains in line with our prior bearish view - All this on a monthly chart, although more sensitive trend reversals (albeit less specific) may have emerged on weekly charts as well.
23 JUN 11 - TECH-NOTE:
Significant changes have occured at this point, namely:
1 - RSI completed a bearish confirmation in the month of MAY
2 - Price completed a (classic) BEARISH Gartley pattern at significant Fib levels
3 - Secondary indicators are lining-up into a bearish signal
OVERALL - BEARISH outlook
BULLISH PERCENT CHART:
RISK FLOW MAP
$SPX - 10-Year, WEEKLY Chart:
$SML - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
$SML - 10-Yr, MONTHLY Chart:
$MID - 3-Yr, WEEKLY Chart:
$MID - 10_Yr, MONTHLY Chart:
90+ other charts publicly listed on StockCharts.com here: http://bit.ly/mF3lhy
Your vote is always appreciated. Thank you.
- Dalcindo
TECH-NOTE: UUP, S&P 500, GOLD
Just a short follow-up note on $UUP development and related market technical observations. On last discussion, I mentioned that UUP was nearing a rally event on the basis that the chart was calling for some unwinding.
Since that time, the unwinding has been well on its way.
However, now the question to ask is whether this is a relaxation of the related currency or a reversal towards a new trend.
FUNDAMENTAL SYNOPSIS:
Underlying fundamental principals are at play behind the greenback, namely a risk aversion trend is afoot, along with fiscal concerns looming in Europe, and the perception that China may have climbed a steep inflationary curve, thus echoing across world markets that further positive market development will be met with significant resistance for a variety of fundamental reasons. Consequently, I believe that over the next few weeks, the FOREX market will take the time to digest the post-QE2 events, the recent G-20 meeting, along with the resurfacing of economic woes from Greece, Ireland and Spain among other European peripheral economic drains.
While the S&P500 has climbed consistently with little retracement over the past several weeks, the recent high that has formed is likely to stall and reflect the "digestive effects" of the new or renewed concerns alluded above.
TECHNICAL SYNOPSIS:
S&P 500
In the WEEKLY chart below, technically, the S&P 500 has reached a complex resistance level that combines the following:
1 - 2008 collapse level of the index
2 - 2009 resistance that caused a sharp reaction
3 - Upper border of the bearish channel
4 - Re-testing of Fib's 61.8% from the 2007-2009 range
In the second S&P 500 chart, the MONTHLY events are pointing to a likely topping of the market based on the following technical facts:
1 - RSI nears a double top in synch with price @ $1,222,22.
2 - RSI's resistance line continues to cap action down into a negative divergence slope
3 - Price's double-top event corresponds to Fib's 61.8% reactive swing from the 2007-2009 range
4 - Secondary indicators are re-forming into a "pre-Decline Pattern"
Overall - S&P 500 is signaling serious internal weakness that should make recent high a serious point of consolidation or trend reversal. Taking the fundamental development into the equation, the picture favors unwinding rather than actual reversal. Look for support near the $1,010.00 level.
UUP
I believe that the recent fundamental events alluded above will continue to fuel the US Dollar.
The greenback is thus likely to regain its safe-heaven status, as seen in recent stalling of GOLD's amazing ascent (see chart below).
The UUP WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts below are both clearly indicating that a channel low was reached and supported the recent reactive rally.
HOWEVER, I am expecting that as the underlying US Dollar is leveraging against bearish world economic development (e..g: Europe, China), the bullish economic data that have surfaced in the US are likely to cap any serious rally in the UUP.
Technically speaking, the WEEKLY RSI formed a bearish spread on its EMA's at the 50-level back AUG 2010, suggesting a very strong bearish bias. Therefore, UUP's line is expected to rally against this resistance, thus hit its head against the @23.20 level over the next few weeks.
UUP's DAILY chart itself remains BEARISH when considering the big picture, again to suggest that the current rally should be characterized as reactive, rather than reversal.
Have a great week-end.
- Dalcindo
$GOLD - 20-Yr., MONTLY Chart:
S$P 500 - 10-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
UUP WEEKLY Chart:
UUP DAILY Chart:
- Dalcindo
---------------------------------
Message in reply to:
reply<UUP> please see chart post by dalcindo on Options Wonderland board, and follow thread...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=55608242
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/replies.aspx?msg=55615024
--------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: S&P 500 - Watch for further weakeness ...
10 NOV 2010 (EOD) - TECH-NOTE: Buyer fatigue?
Watch for this bullish percent index weakeness going forward. Also, look for strengthening in the US Dollar to signify a likely return in risk aversion.
S&P 500, INDU, COMPQ: Bullish Percent Indices (EOD):
Re: Sliding Market - Technical Perspective:
BULLISH PERCENT INDEX CHART:
The Bullish Percent Index charts below (each representing its own index level of buyer sentiment) reveal that the market remains powered by buyers pressuring the stock market (higher risk, higher paying premiums) upwards. However, one might also note that Bullish Percent Index (BPI) seems to have topped as they are revisiting the 80's level. Is this signaling the end of risk-seeking market? I believe that it is, especially as it seems to synchronize with a US Dollar technical low, from which a rally is becoming very probable.
For instance, taken from a technical vantage point, the bullish percentage lines for each of their respective indices seem to have lost momentum. Although the chart indicates that the market remains characterized by a strong buying bias, I would soon watch for the Bullish Percentage line to start migrating southwards, especially if the 80-line continues to become a slippery level. When and if these Bullish Percent indices fail the 80-level, I would expect some added deterioration in their respective market indices at a pace that should synchronize with the BPI level. What I mean here is that further breakdown should accelerate the lower BPI resides on its 80 to 40 transitional range, although confirmation of market sentimental reversal (i.e.: from a predominantly buyer-controlled to predominantly seller-control conversion) should still occur at the 50-level.
RISK FLOW MAP:
Given a closed monetary and valuation system, one can assume that two indices (one representing the US Dollar Index, while the other representing the "entire world" index minus the US Dollar index) can be compared to add further insight in this concept of risk flow. Put simply, the US Dollar index should rally when its counter index ("rest of the world index", here $MSWORLD ex USD) declines. Pushing one step further, any technical rules still apply for either on of these indices. One last step further should allow one to assume that this inverse relation of rallies and decline occurs in a closed system, wherein cash put in one devalues the other, and vice-versa.
Hence, the "Risk Flow Map" chart, which I have used in broad, general purposes when looking into risk aversion (i.e.: seeking safety in the safe-heaven dollar would cause a rally in this currency, vs. a risk-appetized market, seeking positions that would cause the USD to decline, and likely cause the "rest of the world index" (i.e.: MSWORLD ex US Dollar) to rise.
So, a close look at the chart indicates that the US Dollar has inversely evolved against the antipodal index, but also that the current level of the US Dollar Index corresponds to a significant technical support. I am taking the liberty to loosely interpret this observation as a return to risk aversion.
$SPX:
On a more focused level, the SPX seems to respond well to this assumption that:
1 - World markets are still not convinced of a global recovery
2 - The US domestic economy has not bloomed into any convincing level of recovery
3 - Technically, the SPX remains unable to rally over its significant 61.8% Fib level (corresponding to resistance around $1,228.74)
Internal weakness within the SPX can also be noticed in its two smaller elements: $SML and $MID, charted below as well.
Overall, the technical picture favors a US Dollar rally, the strength of which remains uncertain. However, the charts I have on my SC.com public list do favor a rally in the $USD, UUP and a significant resistance in $XAU and $GOLD, for the moment. This technical convergence may suggest that a momentum in favor of the US dollar may be simmering. Time will tell.
BULLISH PERCENT CHART:
RISK FLOW CHART:
SPX CHART:
$SML CHART: Weekly and Monthly Views
$MID CHART: Weekly and Monthly Views
$USD - 10-Year, MONTHLY Chart:
$USD - 36-Mo., WEEKLY Chart:
$USD ETF Bull - PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP)
Re: $USD, $EUR, $JPY - $600 Billion Affecting $USD?
"Shouldn't $USD to go down and $XEU keep rising? "
THE SIMPLER ANSWER:
I think that the most intuitive answer would have that the US Dollar should lose value if the Fed was effectively buying out Treasury bonds and bad debts from banks, thus exchanging against it cash to replenish the banks coffers, and effectively devaluating the US Dollar. Whether this represents an indirect ploy to gain a competitive exporting edge against China or favoring export to boost exporting US companies remains a matter of debate. Nonetheless, the expectation is decline of the USD - But why is it not happening, one should asks.
THE COMPLEX SITUATION:
The action on the dollar may be delayed for the following reasons:
1 - The purchase is incremental, thus allowing a "controlled" insuflation of cash and cushioning the impact on the expected fall;
2 - The banks are becoming cash-rich, but not allowing cash to reached the general consumer market, at least not at a pace that could cause a sudden gain in consumer borrowing power. The concern here is merely inflationary pressure over time, as wider credit availability would spurt a demand on products and services, thus pressuring prices upwards overtime.
3 - There may be a perception that the release of $USD, coupled with recent positive economic data, may have elevated the expectation that the $USD remains a safe-heaven currency, despite the inflationary risk of a gradual, albeit massive monetary swelling. Here the idea is that a spurred consumer mass would increase demand for products and services, thus creating renewed employment by pressuring on the production side of the market, as well as improving companies revenues. So, the expectation is a rejuvenated, invigorated economy.
While economists and politicians may have conflicting views on the effect of the recent Fed's action, the recent data, coupled with the impression that "we could not get any lower", may have contributed to an elevated sentiment from this vantage point.
FOREX, TECHNICALLY SPEAKING:
At this time (0345 central time), the EUR:USD remains on the rise.
A reasonable "listhmus test" currency pair is the USD:JPY, which has topped off at $81.90 overnight, with a 15-minute chart heralding some internal weakness.
This same chart's 60-minute secondary indicators (RSI, MACD ad slow Stoichs) are tipping their head down after a lower high, further suggesting a high-probability reversal from recent bullish rise.
- Dalcindo
----------------------------------
Message in reply to:
The Fed's decision, in essence, to print $600 billion and pump it into the economy through Treasury bond purchases has drawn fire from foreign leaders, notably German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who say it amounts to currency manipulation. The action seeks to lift the U.S. economy in several ways, including by lowering interest rates, boosting the stock market and weakening the dollar, which would make U.S. exports more attractive.
Shouldn't $USD to go down and $XEU keep rising?
Coming into the meeting, hopes have dimmed that the G-20 will go beyond general principles on trade and currency and add what U.S. officials have characterized as "meat on the bones."
"We were not able to come up with the specifics," South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, the meeting's host, said in an interview. "That will be left to a working group. It will take some time."
Discussions among the leaders are scheduled for Thursday and Friday, with preliminary G-20 sessions to begin Wednesday.
The Obama administration proposal, endorsed by G-20 finance ministers last month, calls for the International Monetary Fund to evaluate how each nation's policies help or hurt others. Even if the details of this program were agreed upon by world leaders, it remains unclear how nations could be forced to revise their policies if they run afoul of the IMF because there is no enforcement mechanism.
"The critical question is when the G-20 will move beyond platitudes . . . and on to something concrete, something that might prompt some member of the G-20 to deviate" from the decisions it would otherwise make, said Phil Levy, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute.
The world leaders also face a challenge in determining what exactly balanced trade would look like.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/09/AR2010110907512.html
----------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: UDN - US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
08 NOV 2010 - TECH-NOTE:
Watch for 161.8% Fib extension hit @ $28.03. This significant resistance level may confirm further bearish pressure against USD if breached.
- Dalcindo
AI
