News 
Market Data 
Discover
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
$SPX - A Bull In A Stack Of Hay?
Depending on the time frame, there is a quite a wide range of definable support for this benchmark. The good news is that the recent bearish pressure is tapering off, and the SPX's SML, MID charts are also pointing towards a tapering of the recent downtrend.
From a purely structural standpoint, there remains some room for the bear trend to reverse (See: Chart #1 below, where historical structural levels are defined)
From a harmonics standpoint, I would consider significant support to occur at the convergence of two historically significant Fib levels (See: Chart #2 below). This chart also prints a speculative uptrend channel with a bullish 5-0 pattern formation.
While all this bullish line, trends, patterns are drawn early in the move, the predominant trends remain bearish for now, with 145-STO and institutional selling pressures per A/D, OBV and ChiOs still dwelling under their 21-EMA's.
The SP 500 SPDRs's is barely validating the bottom of a speculative uptrend channel, with a narrow positive RSI divergence and a 144-STO still in the bullish range. But, until the price escape the lower portion of the downtrend channel and continues to validate the bullish channel, then the market will likely convert bears into rising bulls, IMHO.
OVERALL - While weekly and monthly charts are prematurely signaling a bullish reversal, the terrain underneath remains soft and uncertain, and the predominant trend still favor a selling market. One indicator of such uncertainty is SPX's Bullish Percent Index (See: Chart #4 below), where all three major indices found residence in the bearish end of the spectrum, as the predominant market sentiment remains guarded, and any optimistic outlook still has to compare against the current economic realities of Europe, the US, and a failing Asian market - Hint, and off-subject: China sits on the largest real estate bubble with no internal consumptive force and tethered to it a dependent Asian market of suppliers. If we get a cold, they get the Flu.
So, if there is a bullish market out there, it's still hiding, IMHO.
Chart #1: $SPX: WEEKLY
Chart #2: $SPX - 5-Yr., Weekly Chart
Chart #3: SPY (SP 500 SPDRs) - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart: 15 MAY 09
Chart #4: S&P 500, INDU, COMPQ: Bullish Percent Indices (EOD) - 05 OCT 2010
All in my honest opinion.
- Dalcindo
$SPX - Structures/Harmonics: 5-Yr., Weekly
Structural Analysis/Harmonics:
- Upper half of bullish channel formed; recent bearish pressure suggest likely visit into the lower half going forward;
- Fib confluence provides a solid support at the $1,015-1.020 range;
- BULLISH 5-0 Pattern points to an ultimate support for the current bearish trend with D = $837.00.
$SPX - Weekly Candlesticks
- Dalcindo
AAPL - Down to $210?
07 OCT 2011 - TECH-NOTE:
Market topped shy of $425. Now, the structural and harmonics indicate the following BEARISH points:
1 - 14-RSI's 14,45-EMA's marked internal weakness
2 - Volume loss corroborate RSI signal
3 - Institutional indicators suggest start of selling trend
- OVERALL: Expect decline to Fib confluence in the $205-210 area.
a - AAPL - 10-Year, Monthly
- Dalcindo
USD - Rally to $102.00? Don't Laugh:
Gold peaked and reached our second technical target with no less than a twizzer top to clearly herald a subsequent drop.
At the same time, a Gartley pattern has formed on the long term 15-Year, Monthly $USD, with a BULLISH Line-Up from the 5,145-Slow Stochastics and no less impressive than a double-bottom signal from the RSI right at its bullish level of 40. Could there be anything more loud and clear?
This scenario may become more plausible if the USD breaks above $82.7. The current candle shot right at the 38.2% of recent rally, thus favoring a continuation of the (major) downtrend. However, a push above the $82.70 level would give the earliest indication of a serious trend reversal, and the Gartley pattern could provide a reliable trajectory path going forward.
Highly premature and speculative?
- Yes.
Ridiculous?
- No.
013 - $USD - 15-Year, MONTHLY Chart - 12 SEP 08
012 - $GOLD - 20-Year, Monthly Chart - 23 FEB 2010
- Dalcindo
SPX - BEARISH 5-0 Pattern: Harmonics Development - Correction:
MONTHLY chart (see link) does NOT illustrate a BEARISH GARTLEY, but a BEARISH 5-0 PATTERN instead. Sorry if I created any confusion. Here is a WEEKLY chart of the same with the right pattern:
002 - $SPX: WEEKLY
- Dalcindo
S&P 500: $SML - BEARISH 5-0 Pattern: Speculative Advanced Pattern Formation:
25 SEP 2011 - TECH-NOTE:
Watch for 315 and 225 at two significant harmonic convergence levels. Additionally, I'd pay particular attention to the advanced pattern formation below, which carries a high probability of completion and expected price reaction (Bearish in this case):
BEARISH 5-0 PATTERN:
As of this date, the 0,X,A,B points have preliminarily defined the price points expected for a BEARISH 5-0 PATTERN. Expect C to extend between 1.618 and 2.240 of AB, and D to define the 50% point of BC. Therefore, the pattern is not finished. C will define D, and D will point to a high probability decline.
003 b - $SPX: $SML - 10-Yr., Monthly Chart - 25 APR 2009
- Dalcindo
More of these charts on my public list list at stockcharts.com
SPX - 18 SEP 2011: Harmonics Development
Consider these harmonic developments:
- Persistent BEARISH Gartley Pattern on MONTHLY Chart #2
- NEW (albeit premature) formation of a BEARISH Crab pattern (Validation of XA extension at B = 50.0% AND B extension at C = 38.2% - Dotted line speculates a XA extension at D = 88.6%
Resistance expected at the confluence of prior consolidation levels combined with structures at $1,320.
Support as indicated in chart in Chart #2 below:
Chart #1 - S&P, Nasdaq, DJIA - DAILY Chart:
Chart #2 - $SPX - 10Yr., Monthly Chart:
- Dalcindo
SPX - Follow-Up
FYI - Added significant Fib levels onto bearish Gartley pattern:
(Chart from: my stockchart public list)
- Dalcindo
SPX - Recall
As a quick recall, last Jun 23, we called a bearish signal on the SPX - In the interim, we also printed a bearish Gartley pattern.
Now, look for "scaffolding breakdown" as the benchmark continues to take out softening support levels. The crowd turned against the SPX, and the crowd sentiment reciprocates is likely to find a self-fulfilling prophetic event. So, watch out. Or, "Timber!" like they say up north.
... See link for more telling bearish indicators: post# 2130
- Dalcindo
-------------------------------------------------------------------
IN REPLY TO:
dalcindo Member Profile dalcindo Member Level
Share Thursday, June 23, 2011 2:55:49 PM
Re: dalcindo post# 2064 Post # of 2131
SPX - BEARISH:
I thought it timely to provide a quick technical note of the recent structural development, especially as classic patterns have emerged, and the overall picture remains in line with our prior bearish view - All this on a monthly chart, although more sensitive trend reversals (albeit less specific) may have emerged on weekly charts as well.
23 JUN 11 - TECH-NOTE:
Significant changes have occured at this point, namely:
1 - RSI completed a bearish confirmation in the month of MAY
2 - Price completed a (classic) BEARISH Gartley pattern at significant Fib levels
3 - Secondary indicators are lining-up into a bearish signal
OVERALL - BEARISH outlook
SPX - BEARISH:
I thought it timely to provide a quick technical note of the recent structural development, especially as classic patterns have emerged, and the overall picture remains in line with our prior bearish view - All this on a monthly chart, although more sensitive trend reversals (albeit less specific) may have emerged on weekly charts as well.
23 JUN 11 - TECH-NOTE:
Significant changes have occured at this point, namely:
1 - RSI completed a bearish confirmation in the month of MAY
2 - Price completed a (classic) BEARISH Gartley pattern at significant Fib levels
3 - Secondary indicators are lining-up into a bearish signal
OVERALL - BEARISH outlook
BULLISH PERCENT CHART:
RISK FLOW MAP
$SPX - 10-Year, WEEKLY Chart:
$SML - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
$SML - 10-Yr, MONTHLY Chart:
$MID - 3-Yr, WEEKLY Chart:
$MID - 10_Yr, MONTHLY Chart:
90+ other charts publicly listed on StockCharts.com here: http://bit.ly/mF3lhy
Your vote is always appreciated. Thank you.
- Dalcindo
TECH-NOTE: UUP, S&P 500, GOLD
Just a short follow-up note on $UUP development and related market technical observations. On last discussion, I mentioned that UUP was nearing a rally event on the basis that the chart was calling for some unwinding.
Since that time, the unwinding has been well on its way.
However, now the question to ask is whether this is a relaxation of the related currency or a reversal towards a new trend.
FUNDAMENTAL SYNOPSIS:
Underlying fundamental principals are at play behind the greenback, namely a risk aversion trend is afoot, along with fiscal concerns looming in Europe, and the perception that China may have climbed a steep inflationary curve, thus echoing across world markets that further positive market development will be met with significant resistance for a variety of fundamental reasons. Consequently, I believe that over the next few weeks, the FOREX market will take the time to digest the post-QE2 events, the recent G-20 meeting, along with the resurfacing of economic woes from Greece, Ireland and Spain among other European peripheral economic drains.
While the S&P500 has climbed consistently with little retracement over the past several weeks, the recent high that has formed is likely to stall and reflect the "digestive effects" of the new or renewed concerns alluded above.
TECHNICAL SYNOPSIS:
S&P 500
In the WEEKLY chart below, technically, the S&P 500 has reached a complex resistance level that combines the following:
1 - 2008 collapse level of the index
2 - 2009 resistance that caused a sharp reaction
3 - Upper border of the bearish channel
4 - Re-testing of Fib's 61.8% from the 2007-2009 range
In the second S&P 500 chart, the MONTHLY events are pointing to a likely topping of the market based on the following technical facts:
1 - RSI nears a double top in synch with price @ $1,222,22.
2 - RSI's resistance line continues to cap action down into a negative divergence slope
3 - Price's double-top event corresponds to Fib's 61.8% reactive swing from the 2007-2009 range
4 - Secondary indicators are re-forming into a "pre-Decline Pattern"
Overall - S&P 500 is signaling serious internal weakness that should make recent high a serious point of consolidation or trend reversal. Taking the fundamental development into the equation, the picture favors unwinding rather than actual reversal. Look for support near the $1,010.00 level.
UUP
I believe that the recent fundamental events alluded above will continue to fuel the US Dollar.
The greenback is thus likely to regain its safe-heaven status, as seen in recent stalling of GOLD's amazing ascent (see chart below).
The UUP WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts below are both clearly indicating that a channel low was reached and supported the recent reactive rally.
HOWEVER, I am expecting that as the underlying US Dollar is leveraging against bearish world economic development (e..g: Europe, China), the bullish economic data that have surfaced in the US are likely to cap any serious rally in the UUP.
Technically speaking, the WEEKLY RSI formed a bearish spread on its EMA's at the 50-level back AUG 2010, suggesting a very strong bearish bias. Therefore, UUP's line is expected to rally against this resistance, thus hit its head against the @23.20 level over the next few weeks.
UUP's DAILY chart itself remains BEARISH when considering the big picture, again to suggest that the current rally should be characterized as reactive, rather than reversal.
Have a great week-end.
- Dalcindo
$GOLD - 20-Yr., MONTLY Chart:
S$P 500 - 10-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
UUP WEEKLY Chart:
UUP DAILY Chart:
- Dalcindo
---------------------------------
Message in reply to:
reply<UUP> please see chart post by dalcindo on Options Wonderland board, and follow thread...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=55608242
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/replies.aspx?msg=55615024
--------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: S&P 500 - Watch for further weakeness ...
10 NOV 2010 (EOD) - TECH-NOTE: Buyer fatigue?
Watch for this bullish percent index weakeness going forward. Also, look for strengthening in the US Dollar to signify a likely return in risk aversion.
S&P 500, INDU, COMPQ: Bullish Percent Indices (EOD):
Re: Sliding Market - Technical Perspective:
BULLISH PERCENT INDEX CHART:
The Bullish Percent Index charts below (each representing its own index level of buyer sentiment) reveal that the market remains powered by buyers pressuring the stock market (higher risk, higher paying premiums) upwards. However, one might also note that Bullish Percent Index (BPI) seems to have topped as they are revisiting the 80's level. Is this signaling the end of risk-seeking market? I believe that it is, especially as it seems to synchronize with a US Dollar technical low, from which a rally is becoming very probable.
For instance, taken from a technical vantage point, the bullish percentage lines for each of their respective indices seem to have lost momentum. Although the chart indicates that the market remains characterized by a strong buying bias, I would soon watch for the Bullish Percentage line to start migrating southwards, especially if the 80-line continues to become a slippery level. When and if these Bullish Percent indices fail the 80-level, I would expect some added deterioration in their respective market indices at a pace that should synchronize with the BPI level. What I mean here is that further breakdown should accelerate the lower BPI resides on its 80 to 40 transitional range, although confirmation of market sentimental reversal (i.e.: from a predominantly buyer-controlled to predominantly seller-control conversion) should still occur at the 50-level.
RISK FLOW MAP:
Given a closed monetary and valuation system, one can assume that two indices (one representing the US Dollar Index, while the other representing the "entire world" index minus the US Dollar index) can be compared to add further insight in this concept of risk flow. Put simply, the US Dollar index should rally when its counter index ("rest of the world index", here $MSWORLD ex USD) declines. Pushing one step further, any technical rules still apply for either on of these indices. One last step further should allow one to assume that this inverse relation of rallies and decline occurs in a closed system, wherein cash put in one devalues the other, and vice-versa.
Hence, the "Risk Flow Map" chart, which I have used in broad, general purposes when looking into risk aversion (i.e.: seeking safety in the safe-heaven dollar would cause a rally in this currency, vs. a risk-appetized market, seeking positions that would cause the USD to decline, and likely cause the "rest of the world index" (i.e.: MSWORLD ex US Dollar) to rise.
So, a close look at the chart indicates that the US Dollar has inversely evolved against the antipodal index, but also that the current level of the US Dollar Index corresponds to a significant technical support. I am taking the liberty to loosely interpret this observation as a return to risk aversion.
$SPX:
On a more focused level, the SPX seems to respond well to this assumption that:
1 - World markets are still not convinced of a global recovery
2 - The US domestic economy has not bloomed into any convincing level of recovery
3 - Technically, the SPX remains unable to rally over its significant 61.8% Fib level (corresponding to resistance around $1,228.74)
Internal weakness within the SPX can also be noticed in its two smaller elements: $SML and $MID, charted below as well.
Overall, the technical picture favors a US Dollar rally, the strength of which remains uncertain. However, the charts I have on my SC.com public list do favor a rally in the $USD, UUP and a significant resistance in $XAU and $GOLD, for the moment. This technical convergence may suggest that a momentum in favor of the US dollar may be simmering. Time will tell.
BULLISH PERCENT CHART:
RISK FLOW CHART:
SPX CHART:
$SML CHART: Weekly and Monthly Views
$MID CHART: Weekly and Monthly Views
$USD - 10-Year, MONTHLY Chart:
$USD - 36-Mo., WEEKLY Chart:
$USD ETF Bull - PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP)
Re: $USD, $EUR, $JPY - $600 Billion Affecting $USD?
"Shouldn't $USD to go down and $XEU keep rising? "
THE SIMPLER ANSWER:
I think that the most intuitive answer would have that the US Dollar should lose value if the Fed was effectively buying out Treasury bonds and bad debts from banks, thus exchanging against it cash to replenish the banks coffers, and effectively devaluating the US Dollar. Whether this represents an indirect ploy to gain a competitive exporting edge against China or favoring export to boost exporting US companies remains a matter of debate. Nonetheless, the expectation is decline of the USD - But why is it not happening, one should asks.
THE COMPLEX SITUATION:
The action on the dollar may be delayed for the following reasons:
1 - The purchase is incremental, thus allowing a "controlled" insuflation of cash and cushioning the impact on the expected fall;
2 - The banks are becoming cash-rich, but not allowing cash to reached the general consumer market, at least not at a pace that could cause a sudden gain in consumer borrowing power. The concern here is merely inflationary pressure over time, as wider credit availability would spurt a demand on products and services, thus pressuring prices upwards overtime.
3 - There may be a perception that the release of $USD, coupled with recent positive economic data, may have elevated the expectation that the $USD remains a safe-heaven currency, despite the inflationary risk of a gradual, albeit massive monetary swelling. Here the idea is that a spurred consumer mass would increase demand for products and services, thus creating renewed employment by pressuring on the production side of the market, as well as improving companies revenues. So, the expectation is a rejuvenated, invigorated economy.
While economists and politicians may have conflicting views on the effect of the recent Fed's action, the recent data, coupled with the impression that "we could not get any lower", may have contributed to an elevated sentiment from this vantage point.
FOREX, TECHNICALLY SPEAKING:
At this time (0345 central time), the EUR:USD remains on the rise.
A reasonable "listhmus test" currency pair is the USD:JPY, which has topped off at $81.90 overnight, with a 15-minute chart heralding some internal weakness.
This same chart's 60-minute secondary indicators (RSI, MACD ad slow Stoichs) are tipping their head down after a lower high, further suggesting a high-probability reversal from recent bullish rise.
- Dalcindo
----------------------------------
Message in reply to:
The Fed's decision, in essence, to print $600 billion and pump it into the economy through Treasury bond purchases has drawn fire from foreign leaders, notably German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who say it amounts to currency manipulation. The action seeks to lift the U.S. economy in several ways, including by lowering interest rates, boosting the stock market and weakening the dollar, which would make U.S. exports more attractive.
Shouldn't $USD to go down and $XEU keep rising?
Coming into the meeting, hopes have dimmed that the G-20 will go beyond general principles on trade and currency and add what U.S. officials have characterized as "meat on the bones."
"We were not able to come up with the specifics," South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, the meeting's host, said in an interview. "That will be left to a working group. It will take some time."
Discussions among the leaders are scheduled for Thursday and Friday, with preliminary G-20 sessions to begin Wednesday.
The Obama administration proposal, endorsed by G-20 finance ministers last month, calls for the International Monetary Fund to evaluate how each nation's policies help or hurt others. Even if the details of this program were agreed upon by world leaders, it remains unclear how nations could be forced to revise their policies if they run afoul of the IMF because there is no enforcement mechanism.
"The critical question is when the G-20 will move beyond platitudes . . . and on to something concrete, something that might prompt some member of the G-20 to deviate" from the decisions it would otherwise make, said Phil Levy, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute.
The world leaders also face a challenge in determining what exactly balanced trade would look like.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/09/AR2010110907512.html
----------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: UDN - US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
08 NOV 2010 - TECH-NOTE:
Watch for 161.8% Fib extension hit @ $28.03. This significant resistance level may confirm further bearish pressure against USD if breached.
- Dalcindo
TRID chart, seems biased for > 2$ break soon again
S&P500: $MID
Chart reached technical resistance with channel from 13 FEB 2010 still in force. RSI remains unable to carry values to bullish range; secondary indicators getting taut to the overbought side.
Data favors decline - Election is likely to carry the last word and indicate the first new directional path for this and other broad indices.
- Dalcindo
Re: ERX
Hi, 3x!
Agreed. Significant resistance on two technical grounds: First, 61.8% Fib level reached on recent swing rally (April high/July low); Second, $38.75 has served as a significant R/S level.
Secondary indicators are taut to the overbought territory. The chart is technically biased towards a decline. Whether it be merely unwinding vs. a reversal remains uncertain at this time.
Fundamentally, lots of data and anticipated Feds sentiment on the docket this Friday.
- Dalcindo
Re: NFLX - Very Well Bid; Watch For Reversal:
FUNDYS
Netflix has been very well bid over the years. I am not familiar with the fundamentals that leverage this ascent. Blockbuster has come to eat a piece of the movie-by-mail pie, whereas "RedBox" has elbowed its way to the leading crow but offering the most convenient, 1-dollar-a-day point-of-service kiosk studded in a growing number of cities in the US.
TECHYS
Technically speaking, the chart has been buoyed by two supportive bullish channels. Current indicators are getting taut to the overbought side and seem to beg some relaxation. Whether the relaxation is followed by a resumption of the bullish trend, or early reversal signals remain to be seen so far.
Nonetheless, ChiOsc is the first to fold, and typically, this may suggest some early institutional profit taking or position reversals. Look for OBV NEXT, then A/D line for a confirmation of a selling pressure.
I personally rely upon the RSI to provide the same reversal signals. If the current RSI's supportive trendline fails, then look at rallies in price to enter short position once the RSI line turns to overhead resistance. But first, it has to fail its supportive role. This scenario could happen within a few weeks.
OVERALL = Guarded. I would not look at any new long position until RSI bounces off of its support trendline. But, as stated above, it is now more likely to cross below it. If so, consider shorting at points where said line validates overhead resistance.
Hope this helps.
NFLX - 7-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
---------------------------------
In reply to:
Public Reply | Private Reply | Keep | Last Read Replies (1) | Next 50 | Previous | Next
theparty Member Profile theparty Member Level Share Tuesday, October 05, 2010 11:37:40 PM
Re: dalcindo post# 61220 Post # of 61223
Thanks, D what do you see on NFLX chart?..
---------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: GOOG - Chart, TA Update:
---------------------------------
From Chart Insert:
05 OCT 2010 - TECH-NOTE: See where RSI signaled a trend deterioration: its support line reverted to resistance as price converted from bullish-bound to now bearish-bound channel Hence, BEARISH channel established in NOV 2009 remains in force. Watch for "Pre-Decline Pattern" as well.
- DALCINDO
---------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: AAPL - Chart Updated
- Dalcindo
Re: $GOLD - New Target ...
05 OCT 2010 - TECH-NOTE: Now, as new realistic target (barring change in market risk sentiment), look for $1,557.96 viscinity.
- Dalcindo
Re: $WTIC
Technically speaking, the ball is on RSI's side: While $WTIC has plenty of overhead space to go about the channel, RSI remains under a selling pressure trendline.
The trading range that has defined this index since the latter part of 2009 will most likely offer its breakout signal as well, as price has oscillated between $69.00 and $87.00 in a soft arch formation.
Until RSI proves otherwise, the trend remains BEARISH:
- Dalcindo
Re: SPX, $MID, $SML - Reversal Signal
Watch out for the discreet negative divergence signal, especially as it occurred BELOW RSI's 70-line. The 70-line represents a logarithmic level of buying vs. sell strength (not just a algebraic overbought/oversold level!). Buying pressure is waning here as well (i.e.: in reference to discussion in link above).
Additonally, MACD and Slow Stochastic have printed a bearish signal in support of this suspected underlying bearish strength:
SPX, $MID, $SML - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:
- Dalcindo
re:$INDU alternative view, higher leg W in place since one month,
retrace up to halve into the W would still be bullish
Re: $SPX - A Case For Waning Demand
There are several indications that the $SPX is undergoing serious selling pressures, and that the recent heights may - just may - represent the first lower high of a predominant bearish series.
The WEEKLY chart below (See: Chart #1 below) just recently validated (last week, actually) a predominantly bearish channel. Now, this occurred in the perfect technical scenario, where the prior high had reached the all-to-significant 61.8% Fib level. If this bearish scenario holds, then the recent high would constitute a second high, albeit it lower high, of this presumed bearish series. In fact, the resistance line for now remains the Fib-related 133-EMA line, which $SPX has consistently failed to violate.
Now, comes the supply/demand picture.
The bullish percentage charts ($BPxxx), originally designed for the $NYA, offers some added transparency. At least, in my eyes, the interpretation makes things a bit cleared. By definition, the bullish percentage allows indices, (or any group of stocks for that matter) to be gauged based on the underlying supply or demand for the individual securities it represents.
Taking a look at the $SPX chart (See: Chart #2 below; I also incorporated $COMPQ and $INDU below the same chart), one may use this analytical tool to gauge the trend, reversal, and strength of the aggregate demand (i.e.: BID, or buying pressure) or supply (i.e.: ASK, or selling pressure) that actually move the index in question.
In general rule (See: Stockchart.com's ChartSchool section on this tool here: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:bullish_percent_inde ), on may simply use the overbought and oversold signals at hand. But, trendlines will do for me, especially as they tend to define a support or resistance.
To avoid too long a message here, let me just say that the current development continues to favor a BEARISH scenario, one which may continue, unless the index proves to gain enough velocity to escape the current selling pressures and break free of the overhead bearish channel defined in Chart #3.
I will shortly add this chart on my public list here for End-Of-Day (EOD) analyses, which is when these $BP are updated: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281 .
- Dalcindo
Chart #1 - $SPX - 10-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
Chart #2 - Bullish Percent - The Supply & Demand Underneath the Indices:
Chart #3 - $SPX - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: ERX, GOLD, USD
Hi, 3x!
The answer to whether ERX is triple-topping is a difficult one to answer.
Energy bears an inverse correlation with the US Dollar, such that the weaker the US currency gets, the higher the energy sector ETFs turn.
Similarly, Gold has been on the rise for quite some time by now, on the back of the US Dollar, with which it maintains an inverse relationship for historical reasons.
The question here may be: Which one drives the other? I believe that the answer will always be that the US Dollar will continue to play as the main driver behind moves in the gold and energy sector (and this should remain true as long as the US Dollar keeps its trade hegemony. Note here too, that we are letting world-wide economies buy and store US Dollars in US bank against products and services that we buy from them, hence maintaining a trade deficit that is key to letting countries own the US dollar. In a word, maintaining the US trade deficit represents one of the most important geopolitical tool upon which we depend to keep a strong Dollar relative to other economies - But, that's another discussion all together). In the first one, gold keeps a safe-haven property against a falling dollar, while energy commodities, being paid in Dollar, will maintain a same close correlation.
The question that I am most concerned about is: How long is the US Dollar expected to run its downward course? I am finding it confusing that such a plethora of pessimistic fundamental data coming out of Europe (here, I am referring to the faltering economies of the eurozone; defaulting of the Ireland banking system; unrealistic deficit solution plans in Italy, Portugal, Greece, and Spain; as well as recently lackluster unemployment data from Germany), can still carry the Euro in such a persistent advance.
My safe-haven currency is charting: I trade my ignorance of a complex World against the simplicity of trends to get clearer answers. Based on the chart below that I constructed way back (Septemder 2008!), I am estimating that the current decline is likely to find pause - and probable reversal - at the bottom of the bullish channel. However, this is not occur until the US Dollar index reaches an approximate value of $77.00 to the current $78.00. If the channel fails, then we are in for a serious decline, IMHO.
In any case, to answer your question, I believe that since the US Dollar is nearing its monthly bottom (at the lower border of the channel in the chart below), a reversal for $ERX is coming soon.
As far as Gold, there are two inherent limitations that are worth considering: One, Gold is not a liquid asset. In fact, its historical property of being a safe-heaven does not change the fact that it does not carry any intrinsic value, and its relative value to other currencies remain flat, if not decreasing. Second, the rise in gold purchase will soon meet two limiting factors. Once, the effective number of buyers, and second the decreasing attraction, since its historical high will generate greater hesitancy to get in on such a high price - although there really is no historically determined price point at which it is expected to turn, since the demand itself will make it a scarcer, hence more expensive commodity. Nonetheless, I am keeping an eye on the chart, and the chart is calling for an imminent support and probable reversal in the current US Dollar decline. This should correspond to the time where ERX should turn with some reasonable synchrony, IMHO.
- Dalcindo
------------------------
In reply to:
3xBuBa Member Profile 3xBuBa Member Level Share Saturday, October 02, 2010 2:12:35 AM
Re: dalcindo post# 60997 Post # of 61097
is ERX triple top or breaking out?
look how $USD affect the energy sector and Gold, amazing!
----------------------------------
Re: $WTIC - Channel Gets Validation:
$WTIC just provided a solid validation of the "Shorter Trading Channel" drawn on 04 JAN 2010.
Watch for the seemingly indolent resistant effect of the older (way back from 16 JAN 2009!) uptrend channel (GREEN) as the price approach its midline:
$WTIC - 36-Mo., Weekly Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: QID - A "QID" Pro Quo Reversal, Or Is It For Good?
The QID is hitting the bottom border of its bearish channel. While it is clear in the chart that the bearish channel has played a great magnet strength than the bullish channel, this chart is showing several indicators that are nearing a reversal point.
First, the QID itself has been tip-toeing at the bottom of its bearish chanel, as just indicated above, and its next step looks like it wants to repeat that same gait pattern which have preceded range-bound rallies.
Second, the CCI, Wm%R and CMF have formed discreet divergences that reinforce the technical hint of an imminent rally - The strenght of which remains to be determined.
Third, the PPO signal line - itself in a positive divergence - is signaling a high probability of a rally as it nearly crosses over its signal line.
Finally, in fourth point, comes the ADX which has waned to signal that the negative strength that had been in force over the recent decline has now lost steam.
On the buying/selling front, the A/D and OBV lines are non-commital features in terms of early indication of a rally, but the ChiOsc line, has made the first stride by overcoming its predominent 21-EMA down-trending line.
OVERALL - While the QID has fallen through the soft ground of its prior bullish channel, and now seems magnetized to the confines of the bearish channel, the likely rally to which I have alluded will not trump the predominent bearish feature of the chart. Because this is a shorting tool, the QID points to an overall predominantly bullish market. Therefore, it would take some unusual fundamental deterioration for this chart to pierce above the upper border of its bearish channel, meaning that until a devastating news happen to the market, it remains a safe bet to target entries and exits based on the borders of the bearish channel.
Now, watch for that daily 9-EMA ...
Happy trading.
- Dalcindo
QID - 12-Month, DAILY Chart:
Re: ADBE - Caution!
Hi, RTN! How have you been?
FUNDS:
The BIG picture here is about $ADBE 's recent technical tumble based on severe fundamentals ills. While Adobe continues to sell its flagship business solution (CS5), the demand within its two largest distribution pool (US and Japan) has waned. I use Adobe's product myself, but I have to say that they are very expensive, and creative alternatives exist out there. But enough of the fundamentals.
TECHS:
Technically, the BIG picture I am alluding to is that $ADBE has been slipping over a soft slippery slope for quite some times. While buoyed by the rally that "lifted all boats", the predominant trend remains bearish, IMHO. This is not to say that one should not consider short-term trading positions, but connecting the dots on the map still pictures a selling pressure.
The bigger picture is that of the economy, and as I have emphasized in the other (S&P 500) charts as well as those listed on stockcharts.com public list (listed under my name: David Alcindor - shameless plug), the tide seems to revert back towards its lows, as the chart is carving out lower highs and lower lows down to its significant 50% Fib level.
The RSI remains pressured under its (RED) downtrending line, and a testing of its (GREEN) support line should be considered as the litmus test in this pivotal environment (i.e.: technical 50% Fibs, and fundamental suspension whether the economy is truly reverting or merely continuing a recessionary course).
Other significant indicators are the A/D, OBV and ChiOsc lines, whose 21-EMA continue a downward course, suggesting a broad selling pressure among all institutional factors (retail, registered holders and market makers - as per Mary Kay Austin astute definition).
In sum, the technicals in the broader indices still favor a reactive rally, rather than a reversal - And it all seems to be losing steam. This is worth mentioning here, because ADBE has benefited from this reaction, but has managed to remain tethered within the confines of predominantly bearish channels.
I would be more than happy to draw a shorter time frame, but for ths instance, I thought I should analyze the bigger trend.
So, the word here is: watch out for the bears, even though the element of surprise has already been used, as per the recent drop.
ADBE - 7-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: SPY
Hi, 3x!!!
the chart is in errible shape (my bad!), but by the indicators, I am suspecting that the current rally is getting close to losing steam, based on the following:
1 - First, the upper border of that channel is getting quite near;
2 - The CCI, Wm%R and CMF are lining up into a trifecta of overbought conditions;
3 - The ADX is now pointing downwards;
4 - RSI bearly reaches the 60-level while above indicators favor a near resistance or reversal.
More headroom remains before above technical signs lose their validity. So for now, i would consider the $118.00 a significant pivotal point, IMHO.
- Dalcindo
------------------------------------
In Response to:
S&P500 weekly showing last 2 week
breaking out the blue down channel
and RSI turn +ve
-------------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: S&P500 - Coming Under Technical Pressure:
Looking at the big technical picture (10-year, weekly chart below), the benchmark seems to have reached a point of peak performance over the past months.
While the high achieved in mid-April 2010 brought the index to its ultimate 61.8$ Fibo level, the recent rally attempts seems to be falling short of the same stamina. Instead, the 200 weekly EMA seems to be the limiting factor at this point, causing the recent high to carve out a lower high. Taking the lower volume indicator in concert with this weakening picture, there may be cause for concern as to whether the rally can sustain itself any higher, especially if volume continues to wane.
The second chart below points to a technical hurdle overhead, which seems to provide an added graphic representation of this weakening discussed above.
The third chart only adds to the technical picture.
Overall, I believe that unless volume picks up, we are likely to face significant resistance, at best, or a resumption of prior decline.
Furthermore, I believe that, although the recent rally over the past months were significant and impressive, the predominent trend remains bearish.
- Dalcindo
S&P500 - 10-Year, WEEKLY Chart:
SPY - 5-Year, WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: S&P500 WEEKLY Chart (Updated):
- Dalcindo
Source: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281
Re: XRX - Xerox: WEEKLY Chart:
I woke up to sip on a nice hot cup of coffee this morning, and my peripheral field of vision got distracted by my browser getting hit with an unusually high number of Xerox pop-up commercials - Good job, there, Xerox marketers. So, I decided to look at what is going on in this company's chart development.
Turns out that $XRX has been under institutional then, registered stockholders' buying pressure for quite some time. Of late, retail is coming to join the pressure as well.
While RSI has produced its most positive signal by confirming a BULLISH reversal signal in late JUN 2010, its lines have since suggested some sideways patter, or consolidation. However, PPS maintained a strong support ever since it decline from a high of 11.81 in mid-MAY 2010 to find support at the significant 50% Fib of 7.90 from which it produced a BULLISH reversal signal.
Since then, the price has held over its Fib of 38.2% at 8.82, seemingly nearing the conclusion of a down-flag, which should be considered as a sensible consolidation pattern prior to rally resumption in most cases - So, consider stops and limit orders accordingly, my trading friends.
Have a great week.
BTW, anyone know of any recommended activity in St-Louis as I venture my way there between 10-13 SEP? I will then drive back to my Durango, CO home for more review and discussion in PMs. Thank you in advance.
- Dalcindo
- Dalcindo
STOCK INCUBATOR - Offering traders a pasture to let their bulls and bears roam free
This technical analysis-oriented board is created for the purpose of intellectual exchange, education and historical recording of stock performance.
Off-topic subjects are tolerated as long as they maintain a thread of relevance to technical analysis - All material exchanged outside of private messaging should observe basic, common sense rules of courtesy.
This board manager also provides courtesy technical analysis and a public list of select stocks with explicit TA at:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281
----------------------------------------------------------------
What is Technical Analysis - How Can It Help Your Investing?
http://www.mta.org/eweb/docs/pdfs/whatis_techanalysis.pdf
