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Re: SPX Futures Turning RED
Since the writing in link, SPX has turned RED. Technically speaking, as SPX is approaching its upper border, we should expect a decline of this indice at or near that technical area.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/
D.
Re: SPX: Recovery or Slippery Fall?
Hi, xxx!
(DAILY and WEEKLY charts below)
FUNDAMENTALS ARE BEARISH:
World economies are each trying to climb out of the slippery depth, fully knowing that they are chained with one another.
Fundamentally, news from China is lackluster, Europe is now expressing concerns that the down-turn in the US economy will likely affect its own economic regeneration from the recent recessionary depth, and finance ministers in the old world are recommending further cash injection into the banks, while Portugal, Italy and Greece are raising renewed concerns about their ability to further reduce their respective debt.
TECHNICALS REMAIN BEARISH:
SPX remains tethered to the confines of its bearish channel. Although current futures are posting green (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/), I stay my bearish position expressed in a prior board entry, where I mentioned that the overriding trend is bearish.
Similarly, $VIX remains in its channel as well, with upper and lower borders getting hit in lockstep with SPX's own tops and bottoms of its own channel.
SPX, VIX - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:
SPX - 10-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
$SPX - 36-Mo., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
--------------------------------------------------------
Message in reply to:
what's in store for the S&P this coming week? and next week ?
tia
--------------------------------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: SPX: Recovery or Slippery Fall?
Hi, xxx!
(DAILY and WEEKLY charts below)
FUNDAMENTALS ARE BEARISH:
World economies are each trying to climb out of the slippery depth, fully knowing that they are chained with one another.
Fundamentally, news from China is lackluster, Europe is now expressing concerns that the down-turn in the US economy will likely affect its own economic regeneration from the recent recessionary depth, and finance ministers in the old world are recommending further cash injection into the banks, while Portugal, Italy and Greece are raising renewed concerns about their ability to further reduce their respective debt.
TECHNICALS REMAIN BEARISH:
SPX remains tethered to the confines of its bearish channel. Although current futures are posting green (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/), I stay my bearish position expressed in a prior board entry, where I mentioned that the overriding trend is bearish.
Similarly, $VIX remains in its channel as well, with upper and lower borders getting hit in lockstep with SPX's own tops and bottoms of its own channel.
SPX, VIX - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:
SPX - 10-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
$SPX - 36-Mo., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
--------------------------------------------------------
Message in reply to:
what's in store for the S&P this coming week? and next week ?
tia
--------------------------------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Not too shabby. Expecting eurozone to get back under scrutiny once again and change the current rally into a renewed decline.
D.
Forex trading for now - Expecting a contrarian trend from the recent rally in EURO vs. USD. Still short EURO, so expecting a decline.
Otherwise staying cash as far as stocks and indices goes.
D.
Hello, Mick!
Long night here, so not sticking around for too long.
Have a great day.
D.
Re: $INDU: Setting a BEARISH Target @ $8,500.00
$INDU has come under significant bearish pressure. In fact, 2 overhead resistance elements are likely to act as iron-clad obstacles for this index. The first one corresponds to the 50% Fib level borne out of the decline between OCT 2008 MAR 2010. The second one is the indice's own weekly 200-EMA.
Additionally, evaluating the recent H&S formation of this index over the period of NOV 2009 to today, one may reasonably project the technical target for this expected bearish trend to rest at $8,500.00, which - if anything - gains further weight as a whole psychological value. But, most importantly, note also that this target rests right on the line that was once defining the neckline of the inverted H&S formation.
It may take some time to see the completion of this technical development, if ever. But, however speculative this may be, it does seem possible that the trend will bring us down there, in one form or another. A break below the current neckline would likely unleash a crowd of bears, IMHO:
$INDU - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: $INDU- BEARISH; Target: $8,500.00
Hi, Lang!
$INDU has come under significant bearish pressure. In fact, 2 overhead resistance elements are likely to act as iron-clad obstacles for this index. The first one corresponds to the 50% Fib level borne out of the decline between OCT 2008 MAR 2010. The second one is the indice's own weekly 200-EMA.
Additionally, evaluating the recent H&S formation of this index over the period of NOV 2009 to today, one may reasonably project the technical target for this expected bearish trend to rest at $8,500.00, which - if anything - gains further weight as a whole psychological value. But, most importantly, note also that this target rests right on the line that was once defining the neckline of the inverted H&S formation.
It may take some time to see the completion of this technical development, if ever. But, however speculative this may be, it does seem possible that the trend will bring us down there, in one form or another. A break below the current neckline would likely unleash a crowd of bears, IMHO:
$INDU - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: $INDU- BEARISH; Target: $8,500.00
Hi, Lang!
$INDU has come under significant bearish pressure. In fact, 2 overhead resistance elements are likely to act as iron-clad obstacles for this index. The first one corresponds to the 50% Fib level borne out of the decline between OCT 2008 MAR 2010. The second one is the indice's own weekly 200-EMA.
Additionally, evaluating the recent H&S formation of this index over the period of NOV 2009 to today, one may reasonably project the technical target for this expected bearish trend to rest at $8,500.00, which - if anything - gains further weight as a whole psychological value. But, most importantly, note also that this target rests right on the line that was once defining the neckline of the inverted H&S formation.
It may take some time to see the completion of this technical development, if ever. But, however speculative this may be, it does seem possible that the trend will bring us down there, in one form or another. A break below the current neckline would likely unleash a crowd of bears, IMHO:
$INDU - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: $SPX - Stalling at H&S Neckline:
Whether or not the $SPX is setting up for a renewed decline is a matter under development. However, the chart below is shaping up to conclude a Head and Shoulder formation. As this is forming up, recent decline has stalled at what may act as this formation's neckline.
This chart will remain as is until further market events invalidate this technical formation. Please free to re-visit this chart occasionally here (3rd chart down on page 1): http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281
- Dalcindo
Re: $SPX - Worse Case Scenario: Target @ $845.66 :
Whether or not the $SPX is setting up for a renewed decline is a matter under development. However, the chart below is shaping up to conclude a Head and Shoulder formation. As this is forming up, recent decline has stalled at what may act as this formation's neckline.
This chart will remain as is until further market events invalidate this technical formation. Please free to re-visit this chart occasionally here (3rd chart down on page 1): http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281
- Dalcindo
Re: $SPX - Stalling at H&S Neckline:
Whether or not the $SPX is setting up for a renewed decline is a matter under development. However, the chart below is shaping up to conclude a Head and Shoulder formation. As this is forming up, recent decline has stalled at what may act as this formation's neckline.
This chart will remain as is until further market events invalidate this technical formation. Please free to re-visit this chart occasionally here (3rd chart down on page 1): http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281
- Dalcindo
Nice one
D.
Re: ISRG - BEARISH per 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart.
Recent decline exposed next strongest support @ $225.00, corresponding to convergence of 1) gapping decline open in OCT 2008; 2) bursting rally HIGH in JULY 2009, as well as 3) weekly 200-EMA, IMHO.
D.
Re: $BIX - BEARISH
Next target opening down below is the 50% Fib = $106.47, unless price is able to rally, but historical resistance is coming down ever closer, reducing likelihood of any significant rally, IMHO:
$SBIX - S&P Bank Index - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
---------------------------------
Message in reply to:
The US Banking System is heading for a big fall
(Gold_Lunatic) Aug 24, 21:43
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAS&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84120221275
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18197693067
Consequently, there will be a panic flight to gold and silver.
A reliable correlation: T-Bond Yields vs US$...and POG projection
(OPUS-DEI) Aug 24, 21:41
The chart is testament T-Bond Yields have danced the tango with the US$ during the last 10 yields.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TYX&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00566905855
The trends of T-Bond Yields and the US$ have heretofore been downward on-balance during the past decade. And IMO there is nothing on the horizon to alter this. In fact the T-Bond Yield looks to retest its Dec2008 low of 25. Consequently, the US$ Index should fall approx 30% to about 58 (if it maintains the same direct correlation with T-Bond Yields).
How might a 58 US$ Index translate to the gold price?
The Gold vs US$ chart below demonstrates that gold rises on-balance +13% for every -1% decline in the US$ Index. Therefore, this implies the gold price could theoretically rise +390%. This would suggest a gold price close to $5,000/oz.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p33724276475
Frankly, I think $5,000/oz gold is much too much to expect. Nevertheless, that's what the charts and numbers imply.
Historical Note:
During Jimmy Carter's Presidency, the price of gold soared well over 400%.
Gold 1976-1979 during Carter’s Presidency
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/images/king031504e.gif
GOLD STOCKS ORBIT DURING CARTER'S PRESIDENCY
Barron's gold Stocks Index soared over 900% during Carter's 4-year Presidency (notice chart is in Log scale) - Click chart when you see it to make larger.
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/zlongwlog.php?ticker=^BGMIW
Latest Market Reports At GOLD-EAGLE
(vronsky) Aug 24, 20:00
Hyperinflation Is A Fiscal, Not Monetary Phenomenon - Roy-Byrne - Aug 25
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/roy-byrne082310.html
***********************
Autumn In New York - Katz - Aug 25
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/katz082310.html
************************
Have Faith In Gold And Not In Government Rhetoric - Levenstein - Aug 25
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/levenstein082310.html
**************************
Are Gold & S&P500 Topping Out Here? - Vermeulen - Aug 25
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen082310.html
********************
This Past Week In Gold - Chan - Aug 24
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/chan082110.html
***************
Bullion As An Alternative To Shorting (Part II) - Nielson - Aug 24
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/nielson082110.html
************************
Technically Precious With Merv - Burak - Aug 24
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/burak082210.html
**************************
Bust It ! - The Legend Of George Soros - Bevan - Aug 24
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/bevan082110.html
*********************
Topping Gold & Bottoming USD Index - Radomski - Aug 23
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/radomski082010.html
*********************
The Perils Of Unmitigated Positive Thinking - Kosares - Aug 23
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/kosares082010.html
*********************
What Problems Lie Ahead For The U.S. Dollar? - Phillips - Aug 23
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/phillips082010.html
************************
Gold and Silver's A-D Lines and Step Sums - Lundeen - Aug 22
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/lundeen082110.html
*********************
GoldHeart Waves - Updated Comparison Of The XAU & HUI - GoldHeart - Aug 21
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/goldheart081910.html
*************************
Bullion As An Alternative To 'Shorting'- (Part I) - Nielson - Aug 21
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/nielson081910.html
****************************
Silver Has Potential To Be One Of Best Performing Assets Over The Next Five Years - Levenstein - Aug 21
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/levenstein081910.html
***************************
Gold, Silver, Oil & SP500 ETF Trends & Reversal Levels - Vermeulen - Aug 21
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen081910.html
********************
As An Asset Bubble, Gold May Burst After Reaching $2,000 - Bose - Aug 20
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/bose081810.html
**********************
Long-Term Case For Stocks & Commodities Stronger Than Case For Bonds - Ciovacco - Aug 20
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ciovacco081810.html
********************
Print, Baby, Print! - Saville - Aug 19
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/saville081710.html
*********************
The "Flight to Safety" Trade Your Broker Won't Tell You About - Summers - Aug 19
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/summers081710.html
***********************
A Peak Point - Doolittle - Aug 19
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/doolittle081710.html
*************************
Smoke From The Copper & Gold Markets - Coffin & Coffin - Aug 19
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/hra081710.html
***************************
GoldHeart Waves - A Brief Look At The Current Situation - GoldHeart - Aug 18
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/goldheart081610.html
***********************
Gold To Fall In Fall For Once? - Bevan - Aug 18
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/bevan081610.html
*************************
All That Glitters - Aden - Aug 18
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/aden081610.html
**************************
Buy Low - Katz - Aug 18
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/katz081610.html
**************************
Gold Update- Levenstein - Aug 18
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/levenstein081610.html
************************
Gold And Deflation - Holmes - Aug 18
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/holmes081610.html
***********************
Commodity Baseline Shifts Update - Lundeen - Aug 17
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/lundeen081410.html
******************
Gold & Silver - A Pair Of Aces For A Winning Hand! - Rattway - Aug 17
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/rattray081510.html
---------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: $BIX - BEARISH
Next target opening down below is the 50% Fib = $106.47, unless price is able to rally, but historical resistance is coming down ever closer, reducing likelihood of any significant rally, IMHO:
$SBIX - S&P Bank Index - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
---------------------------------
Message in reply to:
The US Banking System is heading for a big fall
(Gold_Lunatic) Aug 24, 21:43
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAS&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84120221275
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18197693067
Consequently, there will be a panic flight to gold and silver.
A reliable correlation: T-Bond Yields vs US$...and POG projection
(OPUS-DEI) Aug 24, 21:41
The chart is testament T-Bond Yields have danced the tango with the US$ during the last 10 yields.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TYX&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00566905855
The trends of T-Bond Yields and the US$ have heretofore been downward on-balance during the past decade. And IMO there is nothing on the horizon to alter this. In fact the T-Bond Yield looks to retest its Dec2008 low of 25. Consequently, the US$ Index should fall approx 30% to about 58 (if it maintains the same direct correlation with T-Bond Yields).
How might a 58 US$ Index translate to the gold price?
The Gold vs US$ chart below demonstrates that gold rises on-balance +13% for every -1% decline in the US$ Index. Therefore, this implies the gold price could theoretically rise +390%. This would suggest a gold price close to $5,000/oz.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p33724276475
Frankly, I think $5,000/oz gold is much too much to expect. Nevertheless, that's what the charts and numbers imply.
Historical Note:
During Jimmy Carter's Presidency, the price of gold soared well over 400%.
Gold 1976-1979 during Carter’s Presidency
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/images/king031504e.gif
GOLD STOCKS ORBIT DURING CARTER'S PRESIDENCY
Barron's gold Stocks Index soared over 900% during Carter's 4-year Presidency (notice chart is in Log scale) - Click chart when you see it to make larger.
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/zlongwlog.php?ticker=^BGMIW
Latest Market Reports At GOLD-EAGLE
(vronsky) Aug 24, 20:00
Hyperinflation Is A Fiscal, Not Monetary Phenomenon - Roy-Byrne - Aug 25
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/roy-byrne082310.html
***********************
Autumn In New York - Katz - Aug 25
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/katz082310.html
************************
Have Faith In Gold And Not In Government Rhetoric - Levenstein - Aug 25
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/levenstein082310.html
**************************
Are Gold & S&P500 Topping Out Here? - Vermeulen - Aug 25
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen082310.html
********************
This Past Week In Gold - Chan - Aug 24
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/chan082110.html
***************
Bullion As An Alternative To Shorting (Part II) - Nielson - Aug 24
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/nielson082110.html
************************
Technically Precious With Merv - Burak - Aug 24
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/burak082210.html
**************************
Bust It ! - The Legend Of George Soros - Bevan - Aug 24
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/bevan082110.html
*********************
Topping Gold & Bottoming USD Index - Radomski - Aug 23
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/radomski082010.html
*********************
The Perils Of Unmitigated Positive Thinking - Kosares - Aug 23
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/kosares082010.html
*********************
What Problems Lie Ahead For The U.S. Dollar? - Phillips - Aug 23
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/phillips082010.html
************************
Gold and Silver's A-D Lines and Step Sums - Lundeen - Aug 22
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/lundeen082110.html
*********************
GoldHeart Waves - Updated Comparison Of The XAU & HUI - GoldHeart - Aug 21
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/goldheart081910.html
*************************
Bullion As An Alternative To 'Shorting'- (Part I) - Nielson - Aug 21
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/nielson081910.html
****************************
Silver Has Potential To Be One Of Best Performing Assets Over The Next Five Years - Levenstein - Aug 21
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/levenstein081910.html
***************************
Gold, Silver, Oil & SP500 ETF Trends & Reversal Levels - Vermeulen - Aug 21
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen081910.html
********************
As An Asset Bubble, Gold May Burst After Reaching $2,000 - Bose - Aug 20
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/bose081810.html
**********************
Long-Term Case For Stocks & Commodities Stronger Than Case For Bonds - Ciovacco - Aug 20
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ciovacco081810.html
********************
Print, Baby, Print! - Saville - Aug 19
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/saville081710.html
*********************
The "Flight to Safety" Trade Your Broker Won't Tell You About - Summers - Aug 19
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/summers081710.html
***********************
A Peak Point - Doolittle - Aug 19
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/doolittle081710.html
*************************
Smoke From The Copper & Gold Markets - Coffin & Coffin - Aug 19
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/hra081710.html
***************************
GoldHeart Waves - A Brief Look At The Current Situation - GoldHeart - Aug 18
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/goldheart081610.html
***********************
Gold To Fall In Fall For Once? - Bevan - Aug 18
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/bevan081610.html
*************************
All That Glitters - Aden - Aug 18
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/aden081610.html
**************************
Buy Low - Katz - Aug 18
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/katz081610.html
**************************
Gold Update- Levenstein - Aug 18
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/levenstein081610.html
************************
Gold And Deflation - Holmes - Aug 18
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/holmes081610.html
***********************
Commodity Baseline Shifts Update - Lundeen - Aug 17
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/lundeen081410.html
******************
Gold & Silver - A Pair Of Aces For A Winning Hand! - Rattway - Aug 17
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/rattray081510.html
---------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: $USD, GOLD - Dollar On Brink Of Rallying ... Or Else, Go GOLD:
As of this EOD (24 AUG 2012) in DAILY chart below, the Dollar index closed at $83.14 after vacillating around its 38.2% Fib level (calculated from bottom of late DEC 2009 = $74.23 to rally top of early JUN 2010 = $88.71).
Today's corresponding RSI at EOD printed 57.57 from a deep rally in early AUG 2010. If RSI showed any weakness over the next several days, one should be concerned about the index inability to complete an EARLY bullish reversal signal, which should be achieved ideally with an RSI topping ABOVE its 66.67 mark. Note that the qualifier and operative word is EARLY reversal signal. Completion would later be achieved with a RSI decline and rally from ABOVE the 40 mark.
While concerns over the European market are lingering (i.e.: weakness in Germany, renewed concerns about Greek banks, today's S&P downgrade of Ireland debt), there are domestic concerns within the US that may cause further risk aversion AWAY from the US Dollar, which may be considered as a diverging event, considering that broad or world market risk aversions have usually sought out safe heaven in the greenback.
In light of such divergence, one should suspect that the ultimate beneficiary might be GOLD.
As mentioned in a earlier post, look for GOLD reaching its $1,300 level if such scenario was to unfold:
$USD (Dollar Index) - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:
$GOLD - 20-Yr., MONTHLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: $USD, GOLD - Dollar On Brink Of Rallying ... Or Else, Go GOLD:
As of this EOD (24 AUG 2012) in DAILY chart below, the Dollar index closed at $83.14 after vacillating around its 38.2% Fib level (calculated from bottom of late DEC 2009 = $74.23 to rally top of early JUN 2010 = $88.71).
Today's corresponding RSI at EOD printed 57.57 from a deep rally in early AUG 2010. If RSI showed any weakness over the next several days, one should be concerned about the index inability to complete an EARLY bullish reversal signal, which should be achieved ideally with an RSI topping ABOVE its 66.67 mark. Note that the qualifier and operative word is EARLY reversal signal. Completion would later be achieved with a RSI decline and rally from ABOVE the 40 mark.
While concerns over the European market are lingering (i.e.: weakness in Germany, renewed concerns about Greek banks, today's S&P downgrade of Ireland debt), there are domestic concerns within the US that may cause further risk aversion AWAY from the US Dollar, which may be considered as a diverging event, considering that broad or world market risk aversions have usually sought out safe heaven in the greenback.
In light of such divergence, one should suspect that the ultimate beneficiary might be GOLD.
As mentioned in a earlier post, look for GOLD reaching its $1,300 level if such scenario was to unfold:
$USD (Dollar Index) - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:
$GOLD - 20-Yr., MONTHLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: BEARISH MARKETS
Hello, Tony!
Short answer: Feel free to peruse, cut and paste charts in this link: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281
Long answer: The charts I have drawn contain channels and trends dating back to 2008. The directional trends are either indicated in COLOR over the RSI, or have a framed qualifier, such as "Weakening Rally", or "Bearish".
You will notice that on a pure objective interpretation of the RSI (Using John Hayden's method, upon which I have depended reliably for several years), broad US market indices (on pages 1, 2, 3, and 4) have printed these two qualifiers already months ago.
Whereas the markets - especially the benchmark S&P500 - have shown capable to rally several times, one should notice that the tops are lower, while the RSI is confirming a bearish reversal signal.
By BEARISH reversal signal, one has to respectfully use Hayden's definition, which is a rally of the RSI from BELOW the 33.33 RSI level, but failing to rally ABOVE the 66.67 level, followed by a continuation in the decline. The inverse is true for a BULLISH reversal signal. I have not been able to observe any stronger reversal confirmation than through this LEADING indicator.
As I mentioned in an earlier post, RSI works in lockstep with price, but in algorithmic pace. I could not fathom using any other leading indicator, although there are many out there that merit consideration and judicial use. For my use, RSI remains the best interpretation of market sentiment, direction, reversal signaling, and trend confirmation.
So, considering the charts in the link above - especially the WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts, where the mass of traders, investors, institutional monies, ... etc, have collectively move the market en mass towards a consensual direction - one could not mistake the trend heralded by the RSI and the chart's secondary indicators (here, consider A/D, OBV and ChiOsc lines as institutional buying/selling interests for visual indicators of buying trends as they compare to their respective 1-EMA lines).
Hope this answer your question.
Best,
- Dalcindo
----------------------------------
Message in reply to:
Hi good evening Dalcindo thank you most kindly my friend for your Technical reply most Informative.
Thank you for the RSI and the methodology.
I keep seeing articles that by October or November the recession will be pretty evident and that may be when markets fully price it in. Do you have any downside targets for S&P for that time period.
Or do I stick with the RSI methodology.
Or maybe both.
I have some concerns about the stability of the US and world markets taking a dive again or double bottom recession.
Using the RSI methodology I should see It coming.
I like your RSI methodology very much make very good sense to me, and can I use the RSI as a market Indicator.
Dalcindo what I am asking Is there signs of the market heading for a double dip recession, In the market like we had a year ago.
Thank you for helping, god bless and always the best of trading.
Re: BEARISH MARKETS
Hello, Tony!
Short answer: Feel free to peruse, cut and paste charts in this link: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281
Long answer: The charts I have drawn contain channels and trends dating back to 2008. The directional trends are either indicated in COLOR over the RSI, or have a framed qualifier, such as "Weakening Rally", or "Bearish".
You will notice that on a pure objective interpretation of the RSI (Using John Hayden's method, upon which I have depended reliably for several years), broad US market indices (on pages 1, 2, 3, and 4) have printed these two qualifiers already months ago.
Whereas the markets - especially the benchmark S&P500 - have shown capable to rally several times, one should notice that the tops are lower, while the RSI is confirming a bearish reversal signal.
By BEARISH reversal signal, one has to respectfully use Hayden's definition, which is a rally of the RSI from BELOW the 33.33 RSI level, but failing to rally ABOVE the 66.67 level, followed by a continuation in the decline. The inverse is true for a BULLISH reversal signal. I have not been able to observe any stronger reversal confirmation than through this LEADING indicator.
As I mentioned in an earlier post, RSI works in lockstep with price, but in algorithmic pace. I could not fathom using any other leading indicator, although there are many out there that merit consideration and judicial use. For my use, RSI remains the best interpretation of market sentiment, direction, reversal signaling, and trend confirmation.
So, considering the charts in the link above - especially the WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts, where the mass of traders, investors, institutional monies, ... etc, have collectively move the market en mass towards a consensual direction - one could not mistake the trend heralded by the RSI and the chart's secondary indicators (here, consider A/D, OBV and ChiOsc lines as institutional buying/selling interests for visual indicators of buying trends as they compare to their respective 1-EMA lines).
Hope this answer your question.
Best,
- Dalcindo
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Message in reply to:
Hi good evening Dalcindo thank you most kindly my friend for your Technical reply most Informative.
Thank you for the RSI and the methodology.
I keep seeing articles that by October or November the recession will be pretty evident and that may be when markets fully price it in. Do you have any downside targets for S&P for that time period.
Or do I stick with the RSI methodology.
Or maybe both.
I have some concerns about the stability of the US and world markets taking a dive again or double bottom recession.
Using the RSI methodology I should see It coming.
I like your RSI methodology very much make very good sense to me, and can I use the RSI as a market Indicator.
Dalcindo what I am asking Is there signs of the market heading for a double dip recession, In the market like we had a year ago.
Thank you for helping, god bless and always the best of trading.
Fundies, Techies, or Quanties? - Ask The RSI:
Yes. There is the natural definition of recession, when people are already hurting, the economy is stalling, and cash flow runs dry, and unemployment ranks keep on swelling. Then, there is the definition of the economist, which is to point out what everyone else already knows, especially those most hurt by it.
The fundamentals by definition have to adhere to a set of predefined conditions that require completion before being defined, such as the two consecutive quarters of a negative growth having to reach completion before calling it a recessionary trend. The some extent, the fundamentalist waits for snail-mail delivery of a directional news.
In contrast, the technical definition is not too dissimilar from that of a jetliner pilot who observe differences moment to moment. Once the gauge needles point to empty, and the engine is not able to carry its load, gravity is the natural winner. And it does not take but a second for all in the plane, experts fliers and passengers alike, to realize what physics will do to that carrier.
Okay, a bit gloomy an example, but you get the point.
I recently had a telephone conversation with an expert market analyst who responded to my e-mail, where I inquired about his persistant bullish stance. This gentleman is neither a fundamentalist nor a technician. He is a defines himself as a quantitative strategist. As such, he provides expert market guidance to fund managers for a fee after evaluating a combination of broad indices, charts, and mathematical models. While my charts have been calling for a broad bearish downturn for several weeks (I too was using US, European, developed and emerging market analysis as he claimed to do), I asked him why he still called this market bullish, when the charts I had reviewed when braodly bearish.
His answer was that the models had not yet called a market reversal. He explained that his models for market trend definition took into account several hundred companies in tens of industries, and comparing these data on a capital-weight basis for fair calculations.
In my mind, having to wait for a set of quantitative data to reach a time frame prior to defining an obvious trend is tantamount to fundamental analysis, since the very nature of this analysis is waiting for the control tower to tell you that your plane is plunging to the ground, when the panic already broke out on board.
In any case, I am not born bearish; just that the charts have expressed a market consensus that has favored the selling side. Once they do, I take on a bearish belief to guarantee that I remain on the same trading side of the market. Although I consider myself a technical analyst, I too base my analysis on very simple mathematics that everyone should be able to understand. In fact, the mathematical expression is not even mine, but that of a RSI scholar: John Hayden - More on this later.
My mathematical evidence is based on the RSI ratios, nothing more, nothing less - I use secondary indicators to look back at how long the trend has been forming, and I look at the A/D, OBV, and ChiOsc line to provide an institutional source of the selling or buying pressure.
Here is how I use the RSI:
First of all, one should realize that the RSI has become a preeminent leading indicator, expressing quantitatively the sentimental direction of the market. However, its use has been diminished by multiple overlays of other indicators that provide supportive or contradictory directions, all the more confusing what was originally a clear trend definition. To be sure, some may forget that the RSI is price-based, hence as leading an indicator as price can get ... with an logarithmic twist.
The RSI simply measures the ratio of the average increase in price over N numbers of days against the average decrease in price over N number of days. Brought down to 100, this ratio becomes expressed in a 0 to 100 sensible range.
The following example is drawn directly from John Hayden's RSI: The Complete Guide (Traders Press, 2004). So, for example:
1 - If both the up average and the down average equal 1, RSI is 50.
2 - If the up average is 2 and the down average is 1, RSI is 66.67;
3 - If the up average is 1 and the down average is 2, it is 33.33.
4 - If the up average is 3 and the down average is 1, RSI is 75;
5 - If the averages are reversed, RSI is 25.
6 - If the up average is 4 and the down average is 1, RSI is 80; reversing the averages we get an RSI of 20.
Per John Hayden: “The largest increase or decrease in the RSI value occurs when the ratio changes from 1:1 to the next whole number (2:1 or 1:2) ... the RSI value experiences its largest changes in value as it oscillates between the index values of 40 and 60. In other words the RSI is most sensitive to price change when the RSI is oscillating between 40 and 60" - I'd say between 33 and 66, for extreme reversals.
As I have described multiple times on the charts, a reversal takes place at specific RSI values. Although one has to wait for the values to complete, they remain in lock-step evolution with price, hence keeping the leading indicator nature of RSI intact.
Sorry for this long reply, but I thought that a simple review of my methodology might better substantiate where I stand in this market.
Enjoy.
- Dalcindo
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Message in reply to:
I keep seeing articles that by October or November the recession will be pretty evident and that may be when markets fully price it in.
Of course, we will not officially be in a recession by then as it takes two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The market supposedly looks six months ahead. Then again, maybe the markets will like the idea of a recession if they anticipate the Fed will add liquidity.
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- Dalcindo
Re: $SPX - On the brink of support violation ...
As we are opening a new trading week, the following WEEKLY S&P500 chart is suggesting a very decisive trading session.
As of this writing (0210am on Monday 23 AUG 2010), this benchmark is sitting right at the lower border of its bullish channel.
Two weeks ago, we pointed out a BEARISH RSI per 14-RSI's failure to rally above its 45-EMA.
The next technical litmus test rests upon this critical step - whether SPX will break through its support and continue its tethered course within the BEARISH channel, or contradict its recent bearish course and remain within the confines of its bullish channel.
As always, time will tell.
- Dalcindo
$SPX - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
Re: $SPX - On the brink of support violation ...
As we are opening a new trading week, the following WEEKLY S&P500 chart is suggesting a very decisive trading session.
As of this writing (0210am on Monday 23 AUG 2010), this benchmark is sitting right at the lower border of its bullish channel.
Two weeks ago, we pointed out a BEARISH RSI per 14-RSI's failure to rally above its 45-EMA.
The next technical litmus test rests upon this critical step - whether SPX will break through its support and continue its tethered course within the BEARISH channel, or contradict its recent bearish course and remain within the confines of its bullish channel.
As always, time will tell.
- Dalcindo
$SPX - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
LOL. I crack myself up too
D.
LOL. You crack me up
D.
Renko are very useful, but not as a leading indicator, although price is the leading element its its formation, there remains the fact that the tick has to "wait" to meet its up-tick or down-tick condition. But once printed, it is very reliable.
D.
Some fine prints:
LOL
"Dalcindo offers technical research specializing analysis of market indices and/or equities. Dalcindo is intended for a professional audience for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, nor is it intended as specific advice for any individual investor’s portfolio. All advice is impersonal investment advice and is provided for the exclusive use of its readers. The user assumes all risk. Dalcindo, its members and employees, are not liable for the usefulness, timeliness, accuracy, or suitability of any of the information, and specifically disclaims all other warranties, expressed or implied, including but not limited to implied warranties, merchant liability or fitness for a particular purpose. Dalcindo is NOT a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. Dalcindo is available by voluntary subscription. Forwarding, copying, or otherwise duplicating this information is encouraged. There is absolutely no guarantee that any theory, chart, or indices will assure market success. Under no circumstances should it be assumed that recommendations made in the past or the future will be profitable or will equal past performance, all investments involve risk of financial loss. Dalcindo should be used only by sophisticated investors who are aware of the risk of investing in the market."
- Dalcindo
Thanks, IIIverson.
But like anything else, it's just ONE opinion among many others.
D.
Re: GOOG - 7-Yr., Weekly Chart:
In the big picture, the H&S is inverted, but lacks the "body" in the upper part of this anatomy. Meaning that there are no preceding body from which the left shoulder, the head, and now the right shoulder has formed.
The lack of precedence would make it less probable for this H&S to get validated, IMHO.
Instead, I believe that the historical high in late 2008 and recency-low in late 2009 (see chart below) have bracketed the most significant borders within which the crowd psychology will play heavily. Technically, the convergence at high and low points have defined significant borders for the bearish and bullish channels.
I just re-drew below a weekly $GOOG chart for the big picture since inception:
GOOG - 7-Yr., Weekly Chart:
- Dalcindo
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Message in reply to:
Posted by: IIIverson Member Level Date: Wednesday, August 18, 2010 11:07:16 AM
In reply to: dalcindo who wrote msg# 2068 Post # of 2074 Send a link via email Share on Facebook Tweet this post
Dalcindo, while I agree about the bearishness of GOOG and chart it almost the same way... I was cant help but notice the BIG PICTURE looks like a REVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS... over the last 3-4 years. Its def the long term BIG PICTURE but it would mean that GOOG would head back up from here...
Just a thought. I always try to look at it from all angles.
---------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: GOOG - 7-Yr., Weekly Chart:
In the big picture, the H&S is inverted, but lacks the "body" in the upper part of this anatomy. Meaning that there are no preceding body from which the left shoulder, the head, and now the right shoulder has formed.
The lack of precedence would make it less probable for this H&S to get validated, IMHO.
Instead, I believe that the historical high in late 2008 and recency-low in late 2009 (see chart below) have bracketed the most significant borders within which the crowd psychology will play heavily. Technically, the convergence at high and low points have defined significant borders for the bearish and bullish channels.
I just re-drew below a weekly $GOOG chart for the big picture since inception:
GOOG - 7-Yr., Weekly Chart:
- Dalcindo
---------------------------------
Message in reply to:
Posted by: IIIverson Member Level Date: Wednesday, August 18, 2010 11:07:16 AM
In reply to: dalcindo who wrote msg# 2068 Post # of 2074 Send a link via email Share on Facebook Tweet this post
Dalcindo, while I agree about the bearishness of GOOG and chart it almost the same way... I was cant help but notice the BIG PICTURE looks like a REVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS... over the last 3-4 years. Its def the long term BIG PICTURE but it would mean that GOOG would head back up from here...
Just a thought. I always try to look at it from all angles.
---------------------------------
- Dalcindo
YW.
D.
Re: XOMA - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:
Chart insert TA reads:
17 AUG 22010 - TECH-NOTE:
1 - RSI indicates sellers in control
2 - Secondary indicators remain bearish
3 - Selling pressure demonstrated in A/D and OBV lines below their 21-EMA
4 - Market makers are the only element on the buy side, as indicated by ChiOsc crossing above is 21-EMA
Overall: BEARISH
Caveat: Look for trend violation to the upside in RSI and bearish channel boundaries.
XOMA - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:
- Dalcindo