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Re: $USD
I believe that the next level down may be found in UUP = $22.00. While the market may have factored in the Fed's QE expectation, there remain some significant opaque details as to the extent of the easing.
Of late, Feds purchased large quants of its treasuries, thus flooding the forex market with $USD. Other countries at the antipod of the greenback have thus seen their currencies rally to levels that may offset the coming export data (look at Japan getting hurt with its stronger Yen vs. China's Yuan benefiting the most among exporting countries).
In the same token, the US is likely to benefit the most of out a weaker dollar, as this is likely to spur the demand for goods and services that are slowly gaining a competitive ground against the competition in Asia.
So, I expect that while the technical factors are discounting the fundamental development with Feds and domestic data, I believe that a support at UUP's $22.00 offers a rather flagrant target, IMHO.
- Dalcindo
--------------------------------
Message in reply to:
one ingredient to help this oil rally
is so low $USD, it drops again today!
how low can dollar go?!!!
--------------------------------
Re: ERX
Hi, 3x!
Agreed. Significant resistance on two technical grounds: First, 61.8% Fib level reached on recent swing rally (April high/July low); Second, $38.75 has served as a significant R/S level.
Secondary indicators are taut to the overbought territory. The chart is technically biased towards a decline. Whether it be merely unwinding vs. a reversal remains uncertain at this time.
Fundamentally, lots of data and anticipated Feds sentiment on the docket this Friday.
- Dalcindo
Re: ERX
Hi, 3x!
Agreed. Significant resistance on two technical grounds: First, 61.8% Fib level reached on recent swing rally (April high/July low); Second, $38.75 has served as a significant R/S level.
Secondary indicators are taut to the overbought territory. The chart is technically biased towards a decline. Whether it be merely unwinding vs. a reversal remains uncertain at this time.
Fundamentally, lots of data and anticipated Feds sentiment on the docket this Friday.
- Dalcindo
Re: ERX still magnetized to the 50% Fib line from the April high-July low.
Looks like a reversal is cooking.
Nice put.
D.
No worries. Every experienced trader here have already paid their fair share of tuitions and fees at the trading school of hard knocks.
D.
It's always a hard decision if you overexpose yourself. Best thing is small amount of capital, then walk away and let your trade complete its course - Provided you defined your entry/exit points.
D.
Hope this was a calculated move.
D.
Re: NFLX
Look for a possible head and shoulder (H&S) completion. In this assumption, consider recent high as Head, with left shoulders in mid-August and early September.
If DAILY chart confirms H&S formation, look at 150, then 140 as significant support level, with NECKLINE running at LOWS of early JUL and late AUG 2010.
A BIGGER H&S formation may also be construed with recent high as head, right shoulders in mid-JUN 2010, and with NECKLINE running at the LOWs of May and JUL 2010.
Consider 2 to 3 stop loss at or above next LOW overhead; consider triggering a long position at next condle formation AFTER neckline fails support.
Note a trading advice. All subjective opinion, of course. Do your own DD.
Hope this helps.
D.
Re: NFLX - 7-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
FUNDYS
Netflix has been very well bid over the years. I am not familiar with the fundamentals that leverage this ascent. Blockbuster has come to eat a piece of the movie-by-mail pie, whereas "RedBox" has elbowed its way to the leading crow but offering the most convenient, 1-dollar-a-day point-of-service kiosk studded in a growing number of cities in the US.
TECHYS
Technically speaking, the chart has been buoyed by two supportive bullish channels. Current indicators are getting taut to the overbought side and seem to beg some relaxation. Whether the relaxation is followed by a resumption of the bullish trend, or early reversal signals remain to be seen so far.
Nonetheless, ChiOsc is the first to fold, and typically, this may suggest some early institutional profit taking or position reversals. Look for OBV NEXT, then A/D line for a confirmation of a selling pressure.
I personally rely upon the RSI to provide the same reversal signals. If the current RSI's supportive trendline fails, then look at rallies in price to enter short position once the RSI line turns to overhead resistance. But first, it has to fail its supportive role. This scenario could happen within a few weeks.
OVERALL = Guarded. I would not look at any new long position until RSI bounces off of its support trendline. But, as stated above, it is now more likely to cross below it. If so, consider shorting at points where said line validates overhead resistance.
Hope this helps.
NFLX - 7-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
---------------------------------
In reply to:
Public Reply | Private Reply | Keep | Last Read Replies (1) | Next 50 | Previous | Next
theparty Member Profile theparty Member Level Share Tuesday, October 05, 2010 11:37:40 PM
Re: dalcindo post# 61220 Post # of 61223
Thanks, D what do you see on NFLX chart?..
---------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: NFLX - Very Well Bid; Watch For Reversal:
FUNDYS
Netflix has been very well bid over the years. I am not familiar with the fundamentals that leverage this ascent. Blockbuster has come to eat a piece of the movie-by-mail pie, whereas "RedBox" has elbowed its way to the leading crow but offering the most convenient, 1-dollar-a-day point-of-service kiosk studded in a growing number of cities in the US.
TECHYS
Technically speaking, the chart has been buoyed by two supportive bullish channels. Current indicators are getting taut to the overbought side and seem to beg some relaxation. Whether the relaxation is followed by a resumption of the bullish trend, or early reversal signals remain to be seen so far.
Nonetheless, ChiOsc is the first to fold, and typically, this may suggest some early institutional profit taking or position reversals. Look for OBV NEXT, then A/D line for a confirmation of a selling pressure.
I personally rely upon the RSI to provide the same reversal signals. If the current RSI's supportive trendline fails, then look at rallies in price to enter short position once the RSI line turns to overhead resistance. But first, it has to fail its supportive role. This scenario could happen within a few weeks.
OVERALL = Guarded. I would not look at any new long position until RSI bounces off of its support trendline. But, as stated above, it is now more likely to cross below it. If so, consider shorting at points where said line validates overhead resistance.
Hope this helps.
NFLX - 7-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
---------------------------------
In reply to:
Public Reply | Private Reply | Keep | Last Read Replies (1) | Next 50 | Previous | Next
theparty Member Profile theparty Member Level Share Tuesday, October 05, 2010 11:37:40 PM
Re: dalcindo post# 61220 Post # of 61223
Thanks, D what do you see on NFLX chart?..
---------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: NFLX - Very Well Bid; Watch For Reversal:
FUNDYS
Netflix has been very well bid over the years. I am not familiar with the fundamentals that leverage this ascent. Blockbuster has come to eat a piece of the movie-by-mail pie, whereas "RedBox" has elbowed its way to the leading crow but offering the most convenient, 1-dollar-a-day point-of-service kiosk studded in a growing number of cities in the US.
TECHYS
Technically speaking, the chart has been buoyed by two supportive bullish channels. Current indicators are getting taut to the overbought side and seem to beg some relaxation. Whether the relaxation is followed by a resumption of the bullish trend, or early reversal signals remain to be seen so far.
Nonetheless, ChiOsc is the first to fold, and typically, this may suggest some early institutional profit taking or position reversals. Look for OBV NEXT, then A/D line for a confirmation of a selling pressure.
I personally rely upon the RSI to provide the same reversal signals. If the current RSI's supportive trendline fails, then look at rallies in price to enter short position once the RSI line turns to overhead resistance. But first, it has to fail its supportive role. This scenario could happen within a few weeks.
OVERALL = Guarded. I would not look at any new long position until RSI bounces off of its support trendline. But, as stated above, it is now more likely to cross below it. If so, consider shorting at points where said line validates overhead resistance.
Hope this helps.
NFLX - 7-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
---------------------------------
In reply to:
Public Reply | Private Reply | Keep | Last Read Replies (1) | Next 50 | Previous | Next
theparty Member Profile theparty Member Level Share Tuesday, October 05, 2010 11:37:40 PM
Re: dalcindo post# 61220 Post # of 61223
Thanks, D what do you see on NFLX chart?..
---------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: ERX
Likely significant resistance at former top = $35.58, IMHO. Looking at likely decline from there. Support at 33.6 if decline occurs. Not, price looking at $37.00 as eventual next target if reversal fails.
D.
Hope you don't over-expose your hard-earned cash, my friend.
D.
Re: GOOG
---------------------------------
From Chart Insert:
05 OCT 2010 - TECH-NOTE: See where RSI signaled a trend deterioration: its support line reverted to resistance as price converted from bullish-bound to now bearish-bound channel Hence, BEARISH channel established in NOV 2009 remains in force. Watch for "Pre-Decline Pattern" as well.
- DALCINDO
---------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: GOOG - Chart, TA Update:
---------------------------------
From Chart Insert:
05 OCT 2010 - TECH-NOTE: See where RSI signaled a trend deterioration: its support line reverted to resistance as price converted from bullish-bound to now bearish-bound channel Hence, BEARISH channel established in NOV 2009 remains in force. Watch for "Pre-Decline Pattern" as well.
- DALCINDO
---------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: GOOG - Chart, TA Update:
---------------------------------
From Chart Insert:
05 OCT 2010 - TECH-NOTE: See where RSI signaled a trend deterioration: its support line reverted to resistance as price converted from bullish-bound to now bearish-bound channel Hence, BEARISH channel established in NOV 2009 remains in force. Watch for "Pre-Decline Pattern" as well.
- DALCINDO
---------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: SPX
True, market makers could lay a hand to the development of a chart, but an index becomes another story.
Let's see what's going on today. I keep reading here and there that the first week defines the top/bottom for the month. A lot of market-moving data is yet to come out of the US, Europe and Japan dockets.
- Dalcindo
Re: $WTIC
Technically speaking, the ball is on RSI's side: While $WTIC has plenty of overhead space to go about the channel, RSI remains under a selling pressure trendline.
The trading range that has defined this index since the latter part of 2009 will most likely offer its breakout signal as well, as price has oscillated between $69.00 and $87.00 in a soft arch formation.
Until RSI proves otherwise, the trend remains BEARISH:
- Dalcindo
Re: $WTIC
Technically speaking, the ball is on RSI's side: While $WTIC has plenty of overhead space to go about the channel, RSI remains under a selling pressure trendline.
The trading range that has defined this index since the latter part of 2009 will most likely offer its breakout signal as well, as price has oscillated between $69.00 and $87.00 in a soft arch formation.
Until RSI proves otherwise, the trend remains BEARISH:
- Dalcindo
Re: $WTIC
Technically speaking, the ball is on RSI's side: While $WTIC has plenty of overhead space to go about the channel, RSI remains under a selling pressure trendline.
The trading range that has defined this index since the latter part of 2009 will most likely offer its breakout signal as well, as price has oscillated between $69.00 and $87.00 in a soft arch formation.
Until RSI proves otherwise, the trend remains BEARISH:
- Dalcindo
Re: SPX, $MID, $SML - RSI Puts Out A BEARISH Signal
Watch out for the discreet negative divergence signal, especially as it occurred BELOW RSI's 70-line. The 70-line represents a logarithmic level of buying vs. sell strength (not just a algebraic overbought/oversold level!). Buying pressure is waning here as well (i.e.: in reference to discussion in link above).
Additonally, MACD and Slow Stochastic have printed a bearish signal in support of this suspected underlying bearish strength:
SPX, $MID, $SML - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: SPX, $MID, $SML - Reversal Signal
Watch out for the discreet negative divergence signal, especially as it occurred BELOW RSI's 70-line. The 70-line represents a logarithmic level of buying vs. sell strength (not just a algebraic overbought/oversold level!). Buying pressure is waning here as well (i.e.: in reference to discussion in link above).
Additonally, MACD and Slow Stochastic have printed a bearish signal in support of this suspected underlying bearish strength:
SPX, $MID, $SML - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: SPX, $MID, $SML - Reversal Signal
Watch out for the discreet negative divergence signal, especially as it occurred BELOW RSI's 70-line. The 70-line represents a logarithmic level of buying vs. sell strength (not just a algebraic overbought/oversold level!). Buying pressure is waning here as well (i.e.: in reference to discussion in link above).
Additonally, MACD and Slow Stochastic have printed a bearish signal in support of this suspected underlying bearish strength:
SPX, $MID, $SML - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: $INDU
Hi, RTN!
Agreed. This case makes for a good counter-technical argument, especially since a cup and handle, or W, formation is underway.
However, had I held a position in it, I would consider that the historical resistance in force for the past several weeks may likely trump a very short-term bullish development.
There are no right or wrong here, just statistical and evidence-based analysis.
Please, feel free to drop this chart going farward once this development breaks down the overhead resistance based on your charting. I'd like to see what the outcome is.
- Dalcindo
Re: $SPX - Demand Fades; Sellers Grow ...
There are several indications that the $SPX is undergoing serious selling pressures, and that the recent heights may - just may - represent the first lower high of a predominant bearish series.
The WEEKLY chart below (See: Chart #1 below) just recently validated (last week, actually) a predominantly bearish channel. Now, this occurred in the perfect technical scenario, where the prior high had reached the all-to-significant 61.8% Fib level. If this bearish scenario holds, then the recent high would constitute a second high, albeit it lower high, of this presumed bearish series. In fact, the resistance line for now remains the Fib-related 133-EMA line, which $SPX has consistently failed to violate.
Now, comes the supply/demand picture.
The bullish percentage charts ($BPxxx), originally designed for the $NYA, offers some added transparency. At least, in my eyes, the interpretation makes things a bit cleared. By definition, the bullish percentage allows indices, (or any group of stocks for that matter) to be gauged based on the underlying supply or demand for the individual securities it represents.
Taking a look at the $SPX chart (See: Chart #2 below; I also incorporated $COMPQ and $INDU below the same chart), one may use this analytical tool to gauge the trend, reversal, and strength of the aggregate demand (i.e.: BID, or buying pressure) or supply (i.e.: ASK, or selling pressure) that actually move the index in question.
In general rule (See: Stockchart.com's ChartSchool section on this tool here: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:bullish_percent_inde ), on may simply use the overbought and oversold signals at hand. But, trendlines will do for me, especially as they tend to define a support or resistance.
To avoid too long a message here, let me just say that the current development continues to favor a BEARISH scenario, one which may continue, unless the index proves to gain enough velocity to escape the current selling pressures and break free of the overhead bearish channel defined in Chart #3.
I will shortly add this chart on my public list here for End-Of-Day (EOD) analyses, which is when these $BP are updated: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281 .
- Dalcindo
Chart #1 - $SPX - 10-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
Chart #2 - Bullish Percent - The Supply & Demand Underneath the Indices:
Chart #3 - $SPX - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: $SPX - A Case For Waning Demand
There are several indications that the $SPX is undergoing serious selling pressures, and that the recent heights may - just may - represent the first lower high of a predominant bearish series.
The WEEKLY chart below (See: Chart #1 below) just recently validated (last week, actually) a predominantly bearish channel. Now, this occurred in the perfect technical scenario, where the prior high had reached the all-to-significant 61.8% Fib level. If this bearish scenario holds, then the recent high would constitute a second high, albeit it lower high, of this presumed bearish series. In fact, the resistance line for now remains the Fib-related 133-EMA line, which $SPX has consistently failed to violate.
Now, comes the supply/demand picture.
The bullish percentage charts ($BPxxx), originally designed for the $NYA, offers some added transparency. At least, in my eyes, the interpretation makes things a bit cleared. By definition, the bullish percentage allows indices, (or any group of stocks for that matter) to be gauged based on the underlying supply or demand for the individual securities it represents.
Taking a look at the $SPX chart (See: Chart #2 below; I also incorporated $COMPQ and $INDU below the same chart), one may use this analytical tool to gauge the trend, reversal, and strength of the aggregate demand (i.e.: BID, or buying pressure) or supply (i.e.: ASK, or selling pressure) that actually move the index in question.
In general rule (See: Stockchart.com's ChartSchool section on this tool here: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:bullish_percent_inde ), on may simply use the overbought and oversold signals at hand. But, trendlines will do for me, especially as they tend to define a support or resistance.
To avoid too long a message here, let me just say that the current development continues to favor a BEARISH scenario, one which may continue, unless the index proves to gain enough velocity to escape the current selling pressures and break free of the overhead bearish channel defined in Chart #3.
I will shortly add this chart on my public list here for End-Of-Day (EOD) analyses, which is when these $BP are updated: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281 .
- Dalcindo
Chart #1 - $SPX - 10-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
Chart #2 - Bullish Percent - The Supply & Demand Underneath the Indices:
Chart #3 - $SPX - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: $SPX - A Case For Waning Demand
Hi, Fox13!
There are several indications that the $SPX is undergoing serious selling pressures, and that the recent heights may - just may - represent the first lower high of a predominant bearish series.
The WEEKLY chart below (See: Chart #1 below) just recently validated (last week, actually) a predominantly bearish channel. Now, this occurred in the perfect technical scenario, where the prior high had reached the all-to-significant 61.8% Fib level. If this bearish scenario holds, then the recent high would constitute a second high, albeit it lower high, of this presumed bearish series. In fact, the resistance line for now remains the Fib-related 133-EMA line, which $SPX has consistently failed to violate.
Now, comes the supply/demand picture.
The bullish percentage charts ($BPxxx), originally designed for the $NYA, offers some added transparency. At least, in my eyes, the interpretation makes things a bit cleared. By definition, the bullish percentage allows indices, (or any group of stocks for that matter) to be gauged based on the underlying supply or demand for the individual securities it represents.
Taking a look at the $SPX chart (See: Chart #2 below; I also incorporated $COMPQ and $INDU below the same chart), one may use this analytical tool to gauge the trend, reversal, and strength of the aggregate demand (i.e.: BID, or buying pressure) or supply (i.e.: ASK, or selling pressure) that actually move the index in question.
In general rule (See: Stockchart.com's ChartSchool section on this tool here: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:bullish_percent_inde ), on may simply use the overbought and oversold signals at hand. But, trendlines will do for me, especially as they tend to define a support or resistance.
To avoid too long a message here, let me just say that the current development continues to favor a BEARISH scenario, one which may continue, unless the index proves to gain enough velocity to escape the current selling pressures and break free of the overhead bearish channel defined in Chart #3.
I will shortly add this chart on my public list here for End-Of-Day (EOD) analyses, which is when these $BP are updated: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281 .
- Dalcindo
Chart #1 - $SPX - 10-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
Chart #2 - Bullish Percent - The Supply & Demand Underneath the Indices:
Chart #3 - $SPX - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Re: Eurozone Troubles vs. USD
These problems have been in the mind of traders all along, and likely discounted in the overall risk sentiment.
The leading economies of Europe still remain Germany (e.g.: manufacturing and exports), France (e.g.: major exporter of artillery contracts to the middle east), and Great Britain (e.g.: finance).
The surrounding economies are supportive (agriculture, construction, etc), albeit essential supports. Still the FOREX investors look to the problems of these central pillars, which in turn are seen carrying the burden of peripheral countries.
It is not impossible that the Eurozone gets trimmed down in the future, especially if a recession is hitting it once more, such that the discussion about kicking Greece out for instance (this subject is but a few months ago), may become a real piece of the agenda. Who knows.
D.
Re: ERY
Yes, I believe that the new boundaries I have laid down pre-market last night are going to hold.
Need to raise $$$ for Christmas time, already?
LOL
D.
Re: SPX
Nice. I agree.
D.
ARTICLE - Bernanke Knew Back in 1988 that Quantitative Easing Doesn't Work
Source: http://atnabtu.com/cgi/allnews.pl?op=newwinopen&url=http%3A//www.zerohedge.com/article/bernanke-knew-back-1988-quantitative-easing-doesnt-work&votehash=6143841%3A31&linktitle=Bernanke%20Knew%20Back%20in%201988%20that%20Quantitative%20Easing%20Doesnt%20Work
Submitted by George Washington on 10/02/2010 15:57 -0500
* Ben Bernanke
* Federal Reserve
* Monetary Policy
* Open Market Operations
* Quantitative Easing
? Washington’s Blog
Ed Yardley notes:
Two economists, Seth B. Carpenter and Selva Demiralp, recently posted a discussion paper on the Federal Reserve Board's website, titled "Money, Reserves, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Does the Money Multiplier Exist?"
[The study states:] "In the absence of a multiplier, open market operations, which simply change reserve balances, do not directly affect lending behavior at the aggregate level. Put differently, if the quantity of reserves is relevant for the transmission of monetary policy, a different mechanism must be found. The argument against the textbook money multiplier is not new. For example, Bernanke and Blinder (1988) and Kashyap and Stein (1995) note that the bank lending channel is not operative if banks have access to external sources of funding. The appendix illustrates these relationships with a simple model. This paper provides institutional and empirical evidence that the money multiplier and the associated narrow bank lending channel are not relevant for analyzing the United States."
Did you catch that? Bernanke knew back in 1988 that quantitative easing doesn't work. Yet, in recent years, he has been one of the biggest proponents of the notion that if all else fails to revive economic growth and avert deflation, QE will work.
Yardley is right. But he's only got half the story.
On a deeper level - as I pointed out in some detail in March - the Fed is intentionally locking up "excess bank reserves" so that they will not be loaned out into the economy. Specifically, in an ill-conceived attempt to prevent inflation, the Fed has been paying sufficiently high rates of interest on reserves deposited at the Fed by the big banks to encourage banks to lock up their reserves at the Fed instead of lending that money out to borrowers who need it.
So on this level, all the quantitative easing in the world won't increase lending, because the banks will just continue to stockpile their money.
(On the deepest level, banks actually create credit out of thin air. See this, this and this. In other words, the commonly-accepted process for money creation is false, and banks don't need any reserves to create credit).
Indeed, multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that quantitative easing helps the biggest companies, but not the little guy or the American economy as a whole.
---------------------------------
- Dalcindo
ARTICLE - Bernanke Knew Back in 1988 that Quantitative Easing Doesn't Work
Source: http://atnabtu.com/cgi/allnews.pl?op=newwinopen&url=http%3A//www.zerohedge.com/article/bernanke-knew-back-1988-quantitative-easing-doesnt-work&votehash=6143841%3A31&linktitle=Bernanke%20Knew%20Back%20in%201988%20that%20Quantitative%20Easing%20Doesnt%20Work
Submitted by George Washington on 10/02/2010 15:57 -0500
* Ben Bernanke
* Federal Reserve
* Monetary Policy
* Open Market Operations
* Quantitative Easing
? Washington’s Blog
Ed Yardley notes:
Two economists, Seth B. Carpenter and Selva Demiralp, recently posted a discussion paper on the Federal Reserve Board's website, titled "Money, Reserves, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Does the Money Multiplier Exist?"
[The study states:] "In the absence of a multiplier, open market operations, which simply change reserve balances, do not directly affect lending behavior at the aggregate level. Put differently, if the quantity of reserves is relevant for the transmission of monetary policy, a different mechanism must be found. The argument against the textbook money multiplier is not new. For example, Bernanke and Blinder (1988) and Kashyap and Stein (1995) note that the bank lending channel is not operative if banks have access to external sources of funding. The appendix illustrates these relationships with a simple model. This paper provides institutional and empirical evidence that the money multiplier and the associated narrow bank lending channel are not relevant for analyzing the United States."
Did you catch that? Bernanke knew back in 1988 that quantitative easing doesn't work. Yet, in recent years, he has been one of the biggest proponents of the notion that if all else fails to revive economic growth and avert deflation, QE will work.
Yardley is right. But he's only got half the story.
On a deeper level - as I pointed out in some detail in March - the Fed is intentionally locking up "excess bank reserves" so that they will not be loaned out into the economy. Specifically, in an ill-conceived attempt to prevent inflation, the Fed has been paying sufficiently high rates of interest on reserves deposited at the Fed by the big banks to encourage banks to lock up their reserves at the Fed instead of lending that money out to borrowers who need it.
So on this level, all the quantitative easing in the world won't increase lending, because the banks will just continue to stockpile their money.
(On the deepest level, banks actually create credit out of thin air. See this, this and this. In other words, the commonly-accepted process for money creation is false, and banks don't need any reserves to create credit).
Indeed, multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that quantitative easing helps the biggest companies, but not the little guy or the American economy as a whole.
---------------------------------
- Dalcindo
Re: Government Manipulating Market ...
Very very interesting.
Injecting the market with dollar to buy out securities would certainly explain the recent divergent market behavior between rising indices, falling dollar, and uneven balance between risk behavior that seem to push the Euro up against the pessimistic data coming out of the Eurozone.
This scenario would make sense. I don't think we would ever find out whether this really is occurring.
- Dalcindo
---------------------------------
In reply to:
MarketFN.com Weekend Newsletter Manipulation
Weekend Newsletter for October 2, 2010
Read our Weekend Report online.
http://www.marketfn.com/9week.shtml
The Week At A Glance According To The Charts
Manipulation
*Manipulation -- by Bill Kraft
Copyright 2010, Makin' Hay, Inc., All Rights Reserved
Bill Kraft
Editor
http://www.marketfn.com/9week.shtml
During the past week I heard allegations on talk radio on Tuesday that the government was propping up the market by funneling funds to banks to buy stock in advance of the election. Interestingly, that day the market had started down fairly sharply and appeared to be pushing farther down when it reversed to move up fairly abruptly. I have no idea of the truth of the assertion, but it certainly would not surprise me if it were true. On one hand, markets do turn during the day without manipulation. On the other hand, elections are almost upon us and a healthy looking stock market would certainly be an asset to those in power. A market moving up at least gives the illusion that the economy is improving. Nevertheless, I have to come down on the side of Warren Buffet who was recently quoted as saying that this recession isn't over yet. A manipulated market could well give a very false impression.
What troubles me is that I could even consider the possibility of elements of the government underhandedly manipulating the market for the personal gain of those elected to represent the people. Perhaps I am overly naive to say that the markets can only work if there is integrity, but that is what I believe. It is a crime for private citizens to secretly attempt market manipulation so why should our government that is supposed to represent the people undertake any covert market manipulation. Let me be clear that I am not making any accusation because I simply do not know. My problem is that for quite some time I have watched as at least some politicians lie, cheat, steal, and manipulate their way into power at the expense of their electorate. If we are to have a market in which the participants can trust, it absolutely must be as free as possible of covert manipulation by anyone, particularly our government.
For quite some time in these articles I have studiously avoided political comment. Now, however, I believe it is a necessity to comment if there is even the appearance of impropriety with the possibility of governmental manipulation of the markets. Such manipulation would undermine the trust of the participants and without trust in the integrity, we can have no viable markets. Such a manipulation would serve only the interests of the manipulators and not the honest interests of those whom they were elected to serve. If our markets and our country are to survive, we the people must not allow such manipulation. Government of the people, by the people, and for the people appears near death and market manipulation would be a serious symptom of the illness leading to the ultimate demise.
Anyway, that's my opinion. I'm sure you'll share yours.
You can comment on this article on my blog!
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
"Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
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Re: Government Manipulating Market ...
Very very interesting.
Injecting the market with dollar to buy out securities would certainly explain the recent divergent market behavior between rising indices, falling dollar, and uneven balance between risk behavior that seem to push the Euro up against the pessimistic data coming out of the Eurozone.
This scenario would make sense. I don't think we would ever find out whether this really is occurring.
- Dalcindo
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In reply to:
MarketFN.com Weekend Newsletter Manipulation
Weekend Newsletter for October 2, 2010
Read our Weekend Report online.
http://www.marketfn.com/9week.shtml
The Week At A Glance According To The Charts
Manipulation
*Manipulation -- by Bill Kraft
Copyright 2010, Makin' Hay, Inc., All Rights Reserved
Bill Kraft
Editor
http://www.marketfn.com/9week.shtml
During the past week I heard allegations on talk radio on Tuesday that the government was propping up the market by funneling funds to banks to buy stock in advance of the election. Interestingly, that day the market had started down fairly sharply and appeared to be pushing farther down when it reversed to move up fairly abruptly. I have no idea of the truth of the assertion, but it certainly would not surprise me if it were true. On one hand, markets do turn during the day without manipulation. On the other hand, elections are almost upon us and a healthy looking stock market would certainly be an asset to those in power. A market moving up at least gives the illusion that the economy is improving. Nevertheless, I have to come down on the side of Warren Buffet who was recently quoted as saying that this recession isn't over yet. A manipulated market could well give a very false impression.
What troubles me is that I could even consider the possibility of elements of the government underhandedly manipulating the market for the personal gain of those elected to represent the people. Perhaps I am overly naive to say that the markets can only work if there is integrity, but that is what I believe. It is a crime for private citizens to secretly attempt market manipulation so why should our government that is supposed to represent the people undertake any covert market manipulation. Let me be clear that I am not making any accusation because I simply do not know. My problem is that for quite some time I have watched as at least some politicians lie, cheat, steal, and manipulate their way into power at the expense of their electorate. If we are to have a market in which the participants can trust, it absolutely must be as free as possible of covert manipulation by anyone, particularly our government.
For quite some time in these articles I have studiously avoided political comment. Now, however, I believe it is a necessity to comment if there is even the appearance of impropriety with the possibility of governmental manipulation of the markets. Such manipulation would undermine the trust of the participants and without trust in the integrity, we can have no viable markets. Such a manipulation would serve only the interests of the manipulators and not the honest interests of those whom they were elected to serve. If our markets and our country are to survive, we the people must not allow such manipulation. Government of the people, by the people, and for the people appears near death and market manipulation would be a serious symptom of the illness leading to the ultimate demise.
Anyway, that's my opinion. I'm sure you'll share yours.
You can comment on this article on my blog!
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
"Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
"Smart Investors Money Machine" is Bill Kraft's most recent publication.
"Trading for Keeps: Making Money with Low Risk Option Trades" a trading DVD by Bill Kraft.
Mr. Kraft's past articles are posted on our website for your review.
http://www.marketfn.com/9week.shtml
Stop By And Visit Me At The SmallCap Trading Techniques Board
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=4203
Valuable Trading Ideas to help you make more MOMO!
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=4203
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