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DGAZ may be difficult to hit $42 again. Although DGAZ doubled from about 20 to 42 for the past months, the contango contributed it more than 30%, now the backwardation will discount about 20% of any DGAZ future gain
Thank you for the timely replay!
the current estimate for this week draw may heavily underestimate. my calculation is between -380 and -400 BCF
Now, we think BAA is zero already, or it still need to wait to see.
How long we can wait to report for tax loss after a stock goes to zero?
Thanks again
also rethink DGAZ maybe under $20, Now people think -320 BCF, but my calculation is -380 to -400 BCF, if my calculation becomes true and traders react crazy again, NG may go up to $3.3 - 3.5.
thanks alot
traders short NG because they worry NG glut after winter. based on Weather, although it will warm up from next week, the withdrawal will still be about average. the deficit will not be gone.
you may see DGAZ under $20 next week, based on my calculation, next week withdrawal close to 400 BCF. Also short too high, it will be covered finally.
Does anybody know if BAA will reopen, I want sell them for tax loss
Thanks
you are right, the 10% contango in a few days
Monday will drop,the cash price not changed Friday, still at $
3.05
Hi, SH
Recently, almost every Monday NG gap down, what you think next Monday?
Many people talk about contango issue next week (about 7%, when times 3, it will be 21%), Do you think that contango is OK?
The contango will affect only the day 10/26, or 10/27 or 10/25? or the whole next week?
Thanks again
When is the contango day?
Thanks
But I am seeing a hotter than average weather for the whole summer and a long summer rally will come in the coming weeks. The managed money has already been starting to prepare for a long summer rally two weeks ago
NG chart has no much indication, it is just for our small traders. If you follow NG price and managed money long and short position, the NG price and managed long position have exact peak and trough. Both have just 2-4 big peaks or troughs each year. So once a trend starts, it is a long trend.
Now the long position is starting to rise.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=UNG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=t36518023328&r=1499601125036
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HSyQp21ucqXl_D6NadL_UFcB4giovlaagxHpndDCu24/pubchart?oid=1258319740&format=image
everyday full in UGAZ and each day has a little shares added by trading
"Im all in cash waiting for a drop in NG next week. If they run NG I'm playing the miners."
Do you really want give up UGAZ if NG run? But I think NG is at absolutely bottom now because the managed money already increased long position and decreased short position for the past two weeks. Any dip will be the managed money's strong bear trap. I will expect NG go much higher than anyone could expect here in coming weeks. This is the managed money's big game. I also trade everyday, not for cash, but for more shares. I always bought back the same day in full.
I think it is just for trade, not for exit yet. Sell high then buy low the same day for more shares. I will expect higher and higher day by day from now on, with some pullback intraday.
I was full for the weekend, will continue full until U reach 20. Like you, I also sell everyday about 20% of my account each day, but I must buy back the same day with all of money including any profit, even without any profit. So, my shares increase a little each day, sometime 0.1%, sometime 1% share increase for my whole account.
I don't think we have much space for drop, the cool weather forcast should be already in play last week. If NG drop, it will just be short-lived for another shaking. So, more chance is increasing from now on
Thanks a lot, but when I open the link, it says it moves this page to some other place. So, I can not see the content
Hi, sure
I don't know how to read this table. I did a lot of calculation, but could not get the same number as Celsius stated. Could you give us some education about the table? Thanks
See below:
As of June 13, the open interest on natural gas contracts traded on the NYMEX decreased by -47,501 contracts to 1,465,130 compared to last week which is above the 1-year average of 1,226,620. Natural gas investors remain optimistic about the commodity's prospects as the total number of long contracts outnumber short contracts by 80,825 with 58% of total contracs being long. However, compared to last week, the percentage of long contracts has decreased suggesting that investors are reducing long exposure in anticipation of a pullback.
What the TOS stand for?
Thanks
Hi, Cha
where we can get the open interest numbers?
Thanks
yes, 6-10 not bullish, but 1-5, 10-15, 30 and 90 days, all bullish on weather based on accuweather.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-forecast-maps?day=15
Even for 6-16, although weather not bullish, gas demand still bullish based on Celsius calculation
UGAZ may be below 13 again before recovery
I really wish the short sellers keep the price this low until tomorrow market open, so you can add for lower price.
Good luck to you
Last Thursday and Friday, I was going to sell some and then buy back with low price. But I thought the price would gap up after the weekend, but now it goes the opposite.
The weather forcast alone seems favorable to ng, although the end of June cool a little, the 15 days forcast is above normal based on both pivotalweather and accuweather, so gas demand also higher than normal based on Celsius prediction. July temperature predicted also higher than normal. So, if based on weather and demand, ng should go up, not down. Celsius already show ng undervalued deeply, usually, ng tend to be overvalued.
The decreasing is illogical. It may be not there when market open tomorrow. everybody know the real value of ng at the moment, so the sellers will just there play themselves. They want make panic, but the panic selling already overdone recently.
Yes, put all of eggs in one dangerous. Sometime you can bet if all of ducks in line, but not often.
I did NG this time, based on the following favorable, but seeming no unfavorable unless panic selling.
1, June to July seemingly has a long run historically
2, long and short are almost balanced recently from long contract a record high
3, A long time injection prediction less than 5 year average for the coming four weeks
4, most importantly, the analyst prediction miss. I found a trend if an injection will be bigger than 5 year average, the analyst always underestimate the injection, when the report out the market reaction even more bearish. But if the injection will be smaller than 5 year average the analyst always overestimate the injection, when the report out the market reaction even more bullish. So, I expect the following 4-week reports will have less injections than prediction.
Anyway, no absolutely safe any time, but just if want to take the risk.
Sure, I did not mean oil price would not increase from here, just want to say if oil price goes down below 40, I would not be surprised. currently, I think NG safer than oil based on fundamental, so I put my every cent in it in all of my wife and my accounts. I started buying from UGAZ 16+ and finished 13+, averaged 15. I will all go to oil after it stable later.
glta
oil is difficult to predict, recently the short sellers are speeding. it is dirt cheap for sure, but the falling force may drag it down below 40. NG for sure will have two weeks of rally at least
Hi,
Is there anybody with Merrill Lynch trade on JNUG?
Now, I can trade other stocks, but I cannot either buy or sell JNUG in my account. It says "this stock is currently blocked"
Hi,
Is there anybody with Merrill Lynch trade on JNUG?
Now, I can trade other stocks, but I cannot either buy or sell JNUG in my account. It says "this stock is currently blocked"
whether you also predicted the 30%+ move today? It completely beyond of my imagination.
you will get lucky because it may be far less than 12 tomorrow
it is not real, i have 7 dollar buy order but did not fill