Sunday, June 18, 2017 9:52:28 AM
I did NG this time, based on the following favorable, but seeming no unfavorable unless panic selling.
1, June to July seemingly has a long run historically
2, long and short are almost balanced recently from long contract a record high
3, A long time injection prediction less than 5 year average for the coming four weeks
4, most importantly, the analyst prediction miss. I found a trend if an injection will be bigger than 5 year average, the analyst always underestimate the injection, when the report out the market reaction even more bearish. But if the injection will be smaller than 5 year average the analyst always overestimate the injection, when the report out the market reaction even more bullish. So, I expect the following 4-week reports will have less injections than prediction.
Anyway, no absolutely safe any time, but just if want to take the risk.
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