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Your trying too hard.
You will go insane seeking to closely corelate macro 'theory' with charts, and its the charts that matter to your bank account.
The below chart should work for you without a StockCharts subscription. It will open with the most current update, but remain static while open. Open it up once a day and look at it.
First look at the bottom section to see if the black M5 has crossed above the 0.0 line. If it has not, then the NatGas bottom is not in yet, and you can go back to sleep for another day.
Once the black M5 does cross above 0.0, then its time to start watching the middle section for the daily bars to start printing above the green 9MA. Simply buy when a full bar prints above the green 9MA, and sell when a bar closes below the green 9MA.
BUY when full bar prints above 9MA, SELL when bar closes below 9MA.
The percent gain between this buy signal and sell signal will be greater when the orange 65MA in the top section is above the 0.0 line. The percent gain between buy and sell signals will be greater still when the price action is above the blue 200MA. If you ignore all the macro BS and do what this chart tells you to do, you will be profitable.
Simply wait for the chart to present buy and sell signals, and get on with your life. GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BOIL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p61314148244
Its a macro view of the market suggesting futures traders have decided NatGas has bottomed and contango is now occurring.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/contango.asp#:~:text=Contango%20is%20a%20futures%20market,are%20lower%20than%20spot%20prices.
I saw this today suggesting QQQ has further to fall.
https://archive.is/www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-verge-cracking-next-cta-liquidation-level-triggered-nvidia-semis-enter-correction
https://archive.is/EAJ7V
This is how I am playing it. GLTY
BOIL's time to shine appears to be later this year.
Open this and scroll down the page looking at the month by month. GLTY
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.quotes.html#venue=globex
A co-worker of mine was traveling to visit a customer last week in Pasadena CA.
A double cheese burger, fries, and a coke plus tax at a local McD's was $30!!!
Yup, downward momentum appears to be increasing.
A periodic ~10% correction is overdue. Will it stop at that level, ...or not. GLTY
The recent Middle East events are not the norm. I believe this will get much more serious once again. Likely Potus wants war as no Potus has ever lost re-election during a war. ...or more accurately said, the puppet master(s) behind Potus want a war so as to maintain power. This is a mess.
I believe market volatility will be increasing. Should be target rich for swing trading. GLTY
Well I tinkered a bit more with a $USD:$BTCUSD flip flop strategy this afternoon. Since settling on the use of the MACD signal over RSI, +VI, Ultimate Oscillator, and others, I have now noodled with different MACD settings. Rather than show all the variations tried here, I have just the two length extremes; M12 and M65.
The first two slides are the $USD:$BTCUSD, and reversed order $BTCUSD:$USD using the default MACD 12,26,9 settings.
Ignore the RSI and VIX indicators at the bottom. I have not taken the time to remove them yet. -
Slides 3 &4 are the same as above but using the longer M65,90,10 settings -
I can't overlay the above trading signals on the BITU/SBIT 2x ETF pair and have it make much sense as they have been trading for less than a month... -
...so I used the BITO/BITI 1x ETF pair to back test.
Slides 7 & 8 are the 1x pair using the M12 setting, the signal overlays in place, and the observed results. -
Slides 9 & 10 are the 1x pair using the M65 setting, and the overlays in place, and the observed results. -
The above shows the shorter M12 settings produced a 6mo return of 34.93% If this strategy were to be used on a 2x ETF, theoretical return would be 2x 34.93 = 69.86%. 3x theoretical return would be 3x 34.93% = 104.79%.
The longer M65 settings produced a 6mo return of 84.93%. 2x 84.93 = 169.86%. 3x 84.93 = 254.79%.
I am still playing with all this. Comments and suggestions welcomed. GLTY
This weekend I am noodling a way to better swing trade the recently available 2x leveraged Bitcoin ETF's.
I am aware Bitcoin has an inverse relationship with the US dollar.
https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/14996/7670
I agree with this. Earning a college degree no longer gives young people a step function advantage over others their same age.
Colleges won't follow the lead of Vo Tech schools and publish a pay back estimation for trade school education costs. They don't want this information visible. Most college degree programs, with a heap of student loan debt acquired upon graduation, will require over 20 years to achieve payback. Many will never achieve payback!
Colleges and universities need to reverse the trend of stock piling endowment funds (tax free by the way), and begin using that money to make tuition more affordable, and coach students away from non income generating degree programs if they are using student loans to fund them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_colleges_and_universities_in_the_United_States_by_endowment#:~:text=Harvard%20University%2C%20with%20a%20%2449.495,by%20fiscal%20year%20(FY).
I find it easier and less risky to just follow what the chart tells me. Cut any losers quickly, and let the winners run. It's working for me. GLTY
Its on the list! Thx
This is a long read, but only slightly off topic from your earlier post. I found it very engaging, and described many logical connections and explanations to current events. Well researched by the author.
As I sit at my desk on a sunny spring Friday afternoon reading this rather than addressing work related activities, this section of the article I found particular relevant to my own situation. GLTY
https://www.palladiummag.com/2023/06/01/complex-systems-wont-survive-the-competence-crisis/
Negative spot price might help KOLD too...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/texas-nat-gas-prices-turn-negative-drillers-chase-oil-sales
CTA's using CTA's. I like it!
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cta.asp
Oooo, ouch!
High stakes poker playing.
Yup, NatGas producers are shutting down some nonprofitable wells, reducing production. Reduced production will move prices up.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-natgas-drillers-cut-spending-reduce-activity-amid-price-crash-2024-02-15/
Ha ha, the CPLiars got caught...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/scandal-rocks-bidens-labor-dept-lying-about-sharing-non-public-inflation-data-secret-group
In finance, CTA is an abbreviation for Commodity Trading Advisor.
A CTA is a professional money manager or a hedge fund who trade futures contracts, commodities, options and certain foreign exchange instruments using OPM (other peoples money).
https://archive.is/www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/we-are-getting-closer-cta-selling-tsunami
https://archive.is/
You might find a subscription to this news letter worthwhile. I terminated my subscription a while back to declutter my approach. Now I simply watch/trade the 1hr BOIL/KOLD charts as I have illustrated to you this past week or so. GLTY
https://www.celsiusenergy.net/
BOIL did not print a full bar above the 200MA today, so I remain on the sidelines.
$NatGas spot price at $2.01 after hours tonight. We will see what tomorrow brings. GLTY
https://capital.com/us-natural-gas-price
I agree.
Adding a trillion in new debt each 100 days now. The numbers of days for each additional trillion will get less and less. Govt spending is like a runaway train.
https://archive.is/PjtaK
https://archive.is/www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/mar/4/us-national-debt-spiraling-out-of-control-rising-1/
Yup, I am of the same mind/opinion.
Post WWII, with the industrial giants Japan, Germany, and Russia in shambles, the US enjoyed a long period of growth and prosperity. This advantage appears to me to be coming to a bumpy end.
The current debt based banking system we have, which replaced the gold standard, is racing towards insolvency. The trend towards working from home is negatively impacting the commercial real estate market, is the achilleas heel of the banks. This will end badly.
The increasing percentage of the population that works for the government is a troubling trend. The current spending rate of the US govt for its payroll, and the rate of spending on 'junk' is unstainable, and their is no resolution presenting itself other than a repeat of the 1929 style reset.
The possibility of another civil war of some kind seems more likely to me as the right and left move farther and farther apart. The upcoming election cycle, and the acceptance of the results, will be telling.
I believe Bitcoin was created as an alternate store of wealth if/when banks and governments stumble. I got a Bitcoin wallet and store some 'off-line' along with other hard assets. You don't need to own a full Bitcoin for this asset to have a major impact on personal finances. Holding just 0.1 Bitcoin will be quite valuable once Bitcoin moves north of $100k/coin, and heading up towards $1m/coin. GLTY
$BITCOIN and the associated miner stocks appear to be decoupling now. This is expected. Once the halving later in April occurs, the energy cost of each coin mined will 2x (reducing the efficiency of miners), and the rate of new coins entering the market will slow down (making the existing coins more valuable).
At some point in the coming weeks/months, the value of Bitcoin will increase enough such that the miners will move up once again. Now is a good time to be out of the miners and hold Bitcoin. I expect the miners to bottom and turn back up once the price of $BITCOIN sufficiently increases. GLTY
For BOIL/KOLD, I am currently using the hourly charts to trade.
The 1hr KOLD chart this morning is displaying a series of lower highs, and lower lows. This chart had me sell KOLD last Friday for a small gain.
The 1hr BOIL chart this morning is displaying higher highs, and higher lows, but the price action is not yet above the 200MA, so I will likely sit out what is shaping up to be a buy signal this morning.
If the price action was above the 200MA, I would currently be watching/waiting for the next hour bars to appear for confirmation. GLTY
It is an interesting macro analysis. Something for me to watch. Thx again.
Thanks for the link.
BITU and SBIT started trading this past week.
BITU is a 2x BITCOIN ETF, and SBIT is a 2x Inverse BITCOIN ETF.
(3x versions of each are in the works.)
The Casino is now open...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BITU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p92336792827
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SBIT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p92336792827
https://www.proshares.com
Now this is interesting. Can you provide a link to your source material plz?