Good week to be on (mostly on) the sidelines.

EOM next week. Looking for the charts to settle down once May arrives.

I am looking for another leg down to appear. GLTY

A clear market direction appears to have revealed itself this morning. Jenga it is!

Time for me to get busy. GLTY

The charts I watch are all over the place this week. Last week too.

The market didn't like META's after hours report just now. META down ~10% in AH trading.

META up ~40% for the year. 1/4 of that gone in minutes. GLTY

I bailed out of BOIL today for a -6% haircut. $NatGas is a fickle bitch. GLTY

I'm going to pass on today.

SPXL and TNA both have red candles. TQQQ, while a black candle, shows a likely closing below the 9MA. Also, M3 still below 0.0 on all three.

I will wait to see what tomorrow brings. GLTY

Above is above, so technically it is a buy signal.

However when its red, I usually wait an additional day for confirmation.

Sometimes I will look at the 1 hr chart for additional clarity, but to be on the safe side I wait one more day.

I would rather miss a day of gains to gain clarity than scramble to cut losses. GLTY

Mixed bag today. Market not as strong as Mon and Tue. Will likely wait one more day for confirmation, but will decide near EOD. GLTY

I'm guessing one of the first applications for this technology will be bitcoin miners...

Macroeconomic news and events are ancillary to my trading decisions.

I find trading charts to be much more profitable. Much more. GLTY

BOIL signal - I got a buy signal on the 60 min chart yesterday. See yellow highlighted area on below chart. Full bar printed above the 9MA, and above the 200MA.

I waited until today for confirmation. I bought BOIL towards EOD today. GLTY

I'm with you. If we have another day tomorrow like yesterday and today, I will look for a full candle to be printed above the 9MA on all of the Big Three.

I highlighted the target areas in yellow on below charts. We will see what tomorrow brings... GLTY

RIOT is the leading candidate. Looking at my Bitcoin miner matrix, it has the strongest momentum today.

WGMI is a rather new Bitcoin miners 1x ETF if you want to play them all together. GLTY

I was not expecting the bitcoin miners to turn positive so soon after the halving, but they are today.

I will look them all over near EOD and likely pick one. GLTY

Remember this from March?

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174051931

Well, the consequence of that expiration is beginning to show itself here in the chart below. This will get much attention in the coming weeks as small banks start to have visible difficulties similar to SVB a year ago. GLTY

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLCFLPCL

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1eFCh

https://archive.is/MzVhT#selection-1135.0-1145.3

https://archive.is/www.zerohedge.com/markets/cta-selling-over-here-latest-goldman-ubs-and-bank-americas-traders

Dead money ripe for penny stock shenanigans. Run away.

...or as Potus says; Don't!

This coming week is full of Big Cap earnings reports.

Could be a few surprises... GLTY

Thx for sharing your analysis. Well done.

My crystal ball this morning looks like this;



Following swing trading rules, the current market move down stalls around 475, then turns up again. However, if a black swan appears (WW2.5 escalates further?), and the anticipated recession begins, this move down continues much lower, below last Oct/Nov levels I fear, and taking gold and bitcoin down with it as people go to cash to pay bills.

I choose not to ride SQQQ this market move down, but rather several of the Mag7 individual components.

LABD, SOXS, NVDQ, TSLZ, also FAZ, and DRV.

Both FAZ and DRV are stalling/rolling over BTW. We shall see what Monday brings. GLTY

Bitcoin's 4th halving predicted to occur in hours. Tomorrow (or tonight).

If this halving follows patterns from previous halving's, look for a drop in bitcoin price, and bitcoin miners stocks (bottoming shortly after halving occurs), followed by a upward trend that will take both to new all time highs (topping a year or so post halving).

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/watch-live-countdown-most-important-halving-bitcoin-history

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/5-things-you-didnt-know-about-bitcoin-halvings-btc-price

I plan to swing trade all this using the BITU/SBIT 2x ETF pair. GLTY

The slippery slope in front of the world tonight...

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4602616-iran-threatens-change-nuclear-doctrine-israel-retaliates-nuclear-sites/

Simply wait for tomorrow and look at the chart I provided you. Nothing more needed to make money.

Stop trying so hard and go back to bed.

CNN and FOX both now starting live reporting on this escalation.

The market 'Black Swan' may have just presented itself. GLTY

gap fill tomorrow....
then deafcon 5
Israel is likely going to bomb the nuke facilities in Iran...it has to now.

Thx for the heads up. I see it now.

Could be blood in the streets tomorrow...

Your trying too hard.

You will go insane seeking to closely corelate macro 'theory' with charts, and its the charts that matter to your bank account.

The below chart should work for you without a StockCharts subscription. It will open with the most current update, but remain static while open. Open it up once a day and look at it.

First look at the bottom section to see if the black M5 has crossed above the 0.0 line. If it has not, then the NatGas bottom is not in yet, and you can go back to sleep for another day.

Once the black M5 does cross above 0.0, then its time to start watching the middle section for the daily bars to start printing above the green 9MA. Simply buy when a full bar prints above the green 9MA, and sell when a bar closes below the green 9MA.

BUY when full bar prints above 9MA, SELL when bar closes below 9MA.

The percent gain between this buy signal and sell signal will be greater when the orange 65MA in the top section is above the 0.0 line. The percent gain between buy and sell signals will be greater still when the price action is above the blue 200MA. If you ignore all the macro BS and do what this chart tells you to do, you will be profitable.

Simply wait for the chart to present buy and sell signals, and get on with your life. GLTY

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BOIL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p61314148244

Its a macro view of the market suggesting futures traders have decided NatGas has bottomed and contango is now occurring.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/contango.asp#:~:text=Contango%20is%20a%20futures%20market,are%20lower%20than%20spot%20prices.

I saw this today suggesting QQQ has further to fall.

https://archive.is/www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-verge-cracking-next-cta-liquidation-level-triggered-nvidia-semis-enter-correction

https://archive.is/EAJ7V

This is how I am playing it. GLTY

BOIL's time to shine appears to be later this year.

Open this and scroll down the page looking at the month by month. GLTY

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.quotes.html#venue=globex

A co-worker of mine was traveling to visit a customer last week in Pasadena CA.

A double cheese burger, fries, and a coke plus tax at a local McD's was $30!!!

Cash and on the sidelines is never a bad choice. Capital preservation is just as good as a gain.

I am swing trading a few inverse ETF's. Not with a lot of money though, not yet anyway.

Waiting/watching this pullback to better develop. GLTY

Yup, I'm thinking this is a good time to be short Bitcoin.

Let me know if questions with below charts. GLTY

Yup, downward momentum appears to be increasing.

A periodic ~10% correction is overdue. Will it stop at that level, ...or not. GLTY

I hope this does not become reality this week, but I am ready if it does. GLTY

CTA's update.

https://archive.is/www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-freefall-cta-sell-threshold-triggered

https://archive.is/26jAb

Yup, as you suggested, the market is turning red as the day draws to a close.

I still see opportunity for swing trading on some daily charts though. I will be buying TZA (along with SBIT) as the day draws to a close. GLTY

The recent Middle East events are not the norm. I believe this will get much more serious once again. Likely Potus wants war as no Potus has ever lost re-election during a war. ...or more accurately said, the puppet master(s) behind Potus want a war so as to maintain power. This is a mess.

I believe market volatility will be increasing. Should be target rich for swing trading. GLTY

Market action this morning not what I was anticipating after Sat night's event.

Oh well, tune it all out and simply do what the charts are presenting.

Sold NRGU and AGQ this morning as these charts are rolling over.

Will likely buy SBIT near end of day. GLTY

Well I tinkered a bit more with a $USD:$BTCUSD flip flop strategy this afternoon. Since settling on the use of the MACD signal over RSI, +VI, Ultimate Oscillator, and others, I have now noodled with different MACD settings. Rather than show all the variations tried here, I have just the two length extremes; M12 and M65.

The first two slides are the $USD:$BTCUSD, and reversed order $BTCUSD:$USD using the default MACD 12,26,9 settings.

Ignore the RSI and VIX indicators at the bottom. I have not taken the time to remove them yet. -






Slides 3 &4 are the same as above but using the longer M65,90,10 settings -






I can't overlay the above trading signals on the BITU/SBIT 2x ETF pair and have it make much sense as they have been trading for less than a month... -






...so I used the BITO/BITI 1x ETF pair to back test.

Slides 7 & 8 are the 1x pair using the M12 setting, the signal overlays in place, and the observed results. -






Slides 9 & 10 are the 1x pair using the M65 setting, and the overlays in place, and the observed results. -






The above shows the shorter M12 settings produced a 6mo return of 34.93% If this strategy were to be used on a 2x ETF, theoretical return would be 2x 34.93 = 69.86%. 3x theoretical return would be 3x 34.93% = 104.79%.

The longer M65 settings produced a 6mo return of 84.93%. 2x 84.93 = 169.86%. 3x 84.93 = 254.79%.

I am still playing with all this. Comments and suggestions welcomed. GLTY

This weekend I am noodling a way to better swing trade the recently available 2x leveraged Bitcoin ETF's.

I am aware Bitcoin has an inverse relationship with the US dollar.

https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/14996/7670

I am focusing this weekend on different indicators to use with a StockCharts two symbol comparison chart; $USD:$BTCUSD.




Because Bitcoin trades 7 days a week, and the dollar only 5, I get similar but different results when I chart $BTCUSD:$USD. The $BTCUSD:&USD chart produces two day gaps in the chart.




Lifting the trading signals from each chart and placing them both on a $BTCUSD chart produces the below. An interesting view, but not my intended use.




I intend this trading 'process' for use with the new 2x leveraged Bitcoin ETF's, and should work more so with the expected 3x EFT's once they become available.






So far, the most tradable swing trading indicator I have found to use is the MACD with the default 12,26,9 values. RSI and VI appear to be ineffective. I would welcome any comments or suggestions for alternatives I should consider from you or any others on this board. TY

Also, Chinese residents will soon have access to Bitcoin ETF's too. Going to need a bigger party tent!

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/china-about-start-bidding-will-hong-kong-bitcoin-etfs-spark-halving-rally

I agree with this. Earning a college degree no longer gives young people a step function advantage over others their same age.

Colleges won't follow the lead of Vo Tech schools and publish a pay back estimation for trade school education costs. They don't want this information visible. Most college degree programs, with a heap of student loan debt acquired upon graduation, will require over 20 years to achieve payback. Many will never achieve payback!

Colleges and universities need to reverse the trend of stock piling endowment funds (tax free by the way), and begin using that money to make tuition more affordable, and coach students away from non income generating degree programs if they are using student loans to fund them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_colleges_and_universities_in_the_United_States_by_endowment#:~:text=Harvard%20University%2C%20with%20a%20%2449.495,by%20fiscal%20year%20(FY).