Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
EVGN rated a "top pick" by Credit Suisse:
Credit Suisse’s Top Agriculture Stock Picks for 2015
Read more: http://247wallst.com/commodities-metals/2015/01/14/credit-suisses-top-agriculture-stock-picks-for-2015/#ixzz3XzK39HBx
Woot!
Developing nations = good for CF
Countries like China, India, and Brazil are industrializing their agriculture and this means more global demand for the products that CF makes. These nations have only just begun to industrialize their farming.
Population explosion = good for CF
Any schlamiel with access to a 100 year global population graph can see that there is an exponential rise that is exploding with no signs of slowing down. Unless there is a mass extinction in the human race, CF is a strong buy for the buy & hold investors.
Inflation = good for CF
As the government spends, we'll see more quantitative easing, and rising prices in commodities.
This means more non-prime ag land will get put into crop production, and higher prices on CF products.
From Investors Place:
Agriculture has been a staple in the world economy since the very first farm. Consequently, agricultural stocks have proved to be a stable, reliable choice for consistent growth and income. Constant advances in farming technology, more refined methods of crop cycling, and an increased demand for organic foods have put the agricultural industry in an economic position that is ripe for the picking.
Within agriculture are the markets of crops such as corn, wheat, and potatoes as well as livestock such as cows, sheep, and chickens. Because these are all finite resources, all of these commodities hold significant value. Some of the largest agricultural corporations include Monsanto (NYSE:MON), Mosaic (NYSE:MOS), and CF Industries (NYSE:CF).
http://investorplace.com/hot-topics/agriculture-stocks/#.VTbO-hZeIS0
Developing nations = good for MOS
As developing nations change, so do the diets of their inhabitants. Westernization of so many countries will be good for a lot of Ag related stocks... and MOS is a powerhouse in the industry.
Ag SPDRs dillute gains and erode principal. I like warren Buffet's quote: "Diversification is protection for people who don't know what they are doing."
If you maintain your own portfolio of great buy & hold stocks, you can really feel it when one of your stocks takes off. If you are over-diversified, a hot stock means nothing in your portfolio.
Population Boom = Good for MOS
Anyone with access to a 100 year global population graph will admit that global population is not just rising, but is in an exponential explosion that is showing no signs of slowing down. Unless there is a mass extinction, MOS is going to grow like gangbusters long term.
From Investor Place:
Agriculture has been a staple in the world economy since the very first farm. Consequently, agricultural stocks have proved to be a stable, reliable choice for consistent growth and income. Constant advances in farming technology, more refined methods of crop cycling, and an increased demand for organic foods have put the agricultural industry in an economic position that is ripe for the picking.
Within agriculture are the markets of crops such as corn, wheat, and potatoes as well as livestock such as cows, sheep, and chickens. Because these are all finite resources, all of these commodities hold significant value. Some of the largest agricultural corporations include Monsanto (NYSE:MON), Mosaic (NYSE:MOS), and CF Industries (NYSE:CF).
http://investorplace.com/hot-topics/agriculture-stocks/#.VTbO-hZeIS0
From Investor Place:
Agriculture has been a staple in the world economy since the very first farm. Consequently, agricultural stocks have proved to be a stable, reliable choice for consistent growth and income. Constant advances in farming technology, more refined methods of crop cycling, and an increased demand for organic foods have put the agricultural industry in an economic position that is ripe for the picking.
Population Explosion = good for FDP
Any schlameil with a graph of the world population over the last 100 years can see that we are in an exponential trend that is showing no signs of slowing down. FDP is poised to grow long term.
Grains have grown, time for fruits & veg! Public perception of the importance of eating fruit & veg will be good for FDP. Grains have been growing disproportionately to fruit and veg production over the last 40 years. Americans are correcting this dietary imbalance and starting to learn about the importance of good nutrition.
From Zacks Equity Research:
Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. : Based in George Town, Cayman Islands, the company has a forward P/E of 14.19x. The company produces, markets and distributes fresh-cut fruit and vegetables worldwide in addition to the manufacturing of plastic and box products including bins, trays, bags, and boxes. The stock has retained its Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) since Aug 31.
The U.S. agriculture sector had performed relatively better than other sectors in the economy during the Great Recession and its immediate aftermath. A vibrant U.S. agricultural sector is essential for the overall growth and prosperity of the nation and these high-potential stocks with strong fundamentals pledge a healthy ROI during this uncertain time.
There is an upward bias caused by several factors which will make shorting MON a position for only the brave or lucky:
1. Inflation. Government spending leads to bonds, which lead to quantitative easing, which lead to inflation of commodities prices... in other words, there is a direct (but delayed) correlation between government spending and agricultural price increases and profits. Historical data shows these correlations over and over again clear back to the Roman Empire. Commodities are always the last minute inflationary life-boat.
2. Developing Nations. As countries like China, India, (Brazil still has a lot of room to grow) and many other developing nations develop, they will move away from old farming techniques and embrace newer technology. We are only at the beginning of this trend.
3. Gold Bugs. We have already seen gold perform in the past as the single strongest performing area in recent years-- don't underestimate the power of these buyers who wish to hedge against inflation.
4. Rising Beef and rising dairy prices. Cows eat Monsanto products. As the price of beef and dairy continue to rise, more cropland will be put into corn and soy production. Hamburger consumption is at an all time high in the US, and has outpaced traditional sources, such that other parts of higher quality beef are being used to fill the demand for hamburger. US Beef trades for $20 per pound in China on the black market-- if a trade agreement is reached, US beef prices could triple. I suggest reading dairy industry trade magazines for more insights on this. China now has more McDonalds restaurants than the US... and 98% of the Chinese population has never even tasted cheese. China is Americanizing fast with no signs of slowing down. I suggest looking at the PE multiples of dairy related stocks in China. They are beyond insane. 100+!
5. Population explosion. I don't really need to explain this one, any schlameil with access to a graph of population growth in the last 100 years can see the trend. We are in a population explosion right now.
It should also be noted that the higher earnings multiple seen at present on MON is being influenced by investors who are betting on the company's long-term future.
Invest on the bully, not the wimp:
If you don't like Monsanto's practices, you should at least recognize a growing company when you see one... especially in a growing industry. Hey I like to eat organic foods and non-gmo... but this sector is going to be hot soon. Just look at all of the growth in rural areas right now. Look at all of the growth the company has had. Higher food prices will mean this dog's gunna hunt
People always need to eat! Population growth= good
Ag is the #1 hedge against inflation:
If you look at the prices of commodities-related stocks during the "Winter of discontent" in Britain, you'll see that they all went through the roof.
Monsanto is a proven power-house that is standing ready to grow during the next wave of price increases in ag!
Gold sucks because the government can just come in and seize it again like they did before. A lot of good that did all of the gold bugs in history... we should study history to learn from it. Mining is not a good hedge against inflation because they depend so heavily on fuel to run their trucks and energy to run their plants. Banking is not a safe hedge against inflation unless you buy into Fed banks. The others are not looking very strong IMHO.
Ag is the #1 new investment sector. Monsanto is the #1 corporation in ag, growing like gangbusters.
Government spending good for MON! Read:
As the Federal Reserve is forced to continue issuing debt to cover our government's spending spree... many people have been worried about inflation. However, inflation causes price increases in commodities. HIgh crop prices = high ag profits.
Monsanto is an up and coming winner if you look at the long-term historical trends of ag prices-- ag is going up! You heard it from me here.
Go long!
I think the FB IPO was spot on. FB IPO criticism boils down to whether you are a value/arb investor or technical.
Stocks don't trade based on the fundamental values, and they don't trade in line with their comps. The market moves them according to technical trends and patterns.
They probably just needed to do a better job explaining "why buy this stock" at the time of the IPO. That was the only problem with the Facebook IPO. The commentator in the video, Taylor Moffitt of Holydean, is trained in fundamental valuation. He's never been a day trader in his life... he is a value/arb investor. Those fundamental / value investors are like conservative Christians or fundamental Jews. They believe in absolutes, but the truth is that "good" and "right" really depends on what the market (or the world) judges it to be.
Thus, the FB IPO was just ahead of its time. I do agree with Taylor in that it was a success for the investment bankers and for the company which raised a lot of money... but if you think about it, I think it ultimately helps the long-term shareholders who stand to benefit from the capital. But I'm not a buy & hold investor. I'm into stochastics and charting!!!
Speaking of which, what's with the momentum?
More quotes on the mysterious Taylor Moffitt of Holydean... what is the relationship this guy had to the FB IPO? Was he involved in any way with it, or just a back seat driver?
"Sounds like you don’t respect rich people. This is America, get over it. You were probably the girl the guy turned down: “my friend asked him out” LOL"
and
"Yes, Taylor Moffitt of Holydean has some affluent clientele, but maybe that’s because he has a job to do and he does it well. I am one of his socalled “greedy investors” and maybe we respect him so much because he is honest and has been so faithful to us. His “poor ex wife” abandoned him... and their daughter. I respect him for having the courage to raise her and not talk bad about other people. I respect him for having tried so hard with years of marriage counseling to keep his family together. There is a reason Taylor’s former financial professors work for him. He is absolutely brilliant. He can speak and write half a dozen languages, and he can perform a complex financial analysis in his head that would take most analysts a day. He is highly creative and has a knack for recruiting the best partners to his dream-team financial firm. How many people do you know that have Harvard professors working for them? He never lets anyone call him Lord Holydean, and insists on plain old Taylor. I respect him immensely, but I do agree with one thing you said, he is loved by his clients and investors."
and
"Ha ha Wow some intense comments. I worked with Taylor as a client, I guess that makes me a bad guy or something too. Other firms treated us horribly, dumping our stock but Taylor came in and helped our stock go up more than 10X what it was. We gladly paid Greenridge Capital a shit ton of stock. They were worth it. Highly recommended."
and
"This is probably a waste of my time to comment here, but people should know that Taylor is ruthless and vindictive. I worked with him at the Bradford when he was President of Bradford Mortgage. Some of us wanted to break away on our own and his former Senior Vice President organized a secret meeting to replace Taylor and Bradford with himself. Taylor caught wind of it, and he hired a hacker to go through his employee’s computers at night, and uncovered our plans. He took his findings about our group straight to the Chairman of the board, and then the next morning sent a memo to everyone in the company saying that he had fired the VP for “insubordination.” Then he distributed the guy’s business to his favorite managers, making everyone too afraid and too greedy to ever want to question his authority again. He practically put the guy’s head on a stake for all to see. It was like a military operation. He ruined that man’s career.
Also, a con-artist named John Rivera screwed Taylor and his company for several million dollars. Taylor pretended to away quietly, and used other people to file a Federal lawsuit to recover assets from the guy, and then secretly compiled over 800 pages of evidence and turned it all in to the SEC to have the guy put in prison. His company won the lawsuit, and the SEC pressed charges on top of it all. All I can say is he is dangerous, and he knows how to ruin people. If I were his ex-wife, I would pack up and leave the state. --Former Employee"
and
"@Former Employee: It sounds to me like the VP and the guy who went to prison had it coming. Bravo to Taylor for teaching those bad guys a lesson. I have a doctorate, and I worked with Taylor on a deal that we did not close. He is brilliant, and yes, he knows how to be ruthlessly protective. (But trust me, his Spanish is not that good!) The seller in our deal tried to cut me out of the deal, and offered to secretly pay Taylor under the table half of my share. I was shocked when I heard that the seller was trying to screw me, but Taylor killed the whole deal, and refused to ever do any business with that man again. So, he has earned my loyalty and I hope someday that I can do some good business with him to repay his good deeds. There are not many people left who are benevolent noble knights in the business world (pun not intended), but Taylor truly is a rarity. I have never encountered someone who is so protective of his business partners. He operates in fairness and honesty. I would heartily recommend him to anyone."
and
"Here is my report. I am from the City of London, and I know a little of Lord Holydean. I personally met him in the City, he was with another investment banker CJ Comu, and they were headed to have dinner with the president of the GXG Exchange. Lord Holydean indeed does insist that everyone calls him by his first name. Right honourable, if you ask me. He was forthright in his dealings. One of the things I always look at is a man’s suit and shoes to know if he is truly successful. Holydean’s suit looked very British, and when I asked about it he said it was stitched by Anderson & Sheppard on Seville Row (probably cost him £2500), and I recognized his shoes as being Italian and probably cost him £300. He carried himself well with all of the manners one would expect of any toff. He was smoking a pipe which was reminiscent of an old man. Should you feel disinclined to believe his credentials, my bank did some background verification on him, and we found everything to be easily validated. There were at least six investment bankers in the meeting, and Holydean was quite clearly the smartest guy in the room. Someone commented to him that he was brilliant and he passed it off saying we were “easily impressed.” Bollox. We told him we were interested to invest in his IPO and that we would like to speak with him again the next time he is in the City, we have not seen him since."
Youtube video commentator says FB IPO ignored fundamental valuations-- other opinions?
There's a youtube video featuring a guy who says the FB IPO was overvalued because the fundamentals of the company were ignored for hype and "new math". Does anyone agree with that?
You can find the Youtube videos if you search for "How to invest Pre-IPO"
Here is some discussion on the guy, from another site:
"Taylor Moffitt of Holydean is a greedy bastard with his $6,000 custom suits and all of his CEO rich buddies and shareholders who are so dedicated to him. He wasn’t even born into the nobility of Britain, he was raised up by some Duke because he made the guy some money or something. The rest of us have to work for our livings but “The Honourable” Lord Holydean flies back and forth to London sleeping in a bed and being served champagne. Anyone who lives in a 9 bedroom home with a pool in the living room and 15,000 acres of forest is greedy if you ask me. I don’t care if he does build orphanages. He helped cause the market crash of 2008 by selling $75 million in crappy mortgages into the market, and all he does now is make rich people richer. He’s too good to even date anyone who’s not rich now too my friend asked him out and he said no what a snob asshole. He tries to pretend he’s “down to earth” since he got rid of his Rolls-Royce........ but he drank a $15,000 bottle of wine in Costa Rica and he still won’t give his poor ex wife anything. He’s got all those houses, but will he give anyone free rent? I don’t think so. He has no conscience cuz he can enjoy making millions in the stock market while other people who have to work for a living are losing money there. Paragliding trips to South America? Taking dates to Paris? Probably private jets paid for by one of his CEO clients or greedy investors who seem to love him so much."
Thus sucks I'm selling.
This stock probably has a chance but there seems to be so much bashing that I'm not going to stick around and wait and see. The financials came out and were full of good news but nobody appreciates it.
I'm going to sell my ENTIRE position today and look for soemthing else to buy, like starting my own business or meybe a Jimmy John's franchise.
I suppose that some hater will bash me too for leaving, but its my money and I've had enough of the bad energy and negative vibes. I mean really.
Peace and love. Goodbye all. I wish you well and am sending you love and light.
Eric