Retired Air Force and current Gov worker with hopes of the early retirement option. Ihub seems to be helping me stay on track
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Hi folks, posting a note to keep the site active. No complaints on yearly progress as I'm maintaining my monthly 2% goal. I'll take that as a good year so far. Now, let's see how the fed meeting will affect the market tomorrow. History shows little change initially but up to a 10 percent fall off over the following year after a rate cut. Keep posting, it makes a difference to all who cares.
Hi Frenchee, glad to hear you are well. We were worried not hearing from you.
Hi Baja6string, my last working day is tomorrow after retiring from both the military and the government and I've had that debate with myself for some time. I'm fortunate to have a surplus of retirement, disability, spousal, and investment income coming in so I'm planning on leaving my money in the TSP for some time for the flexibility in managing my funds. However, my primary thoughts are to take a portion from TSP annually to delay social security until age 67 or 70 to allow that to double after 7-10 years. Then focus more on staying within a tax limit by maximizing TSP withdrawals to that targeted max without going over. All of that said, this probably isn't the response you're looking for, but the TSP option seems the best for me to play all of that forward.
Thanks for polling Frenchee....I was wondering the same thing.
Great feedback. I target a 2% gain per month with a low target of 1% per month. If the net forecast is 5.5% by year end, there's sure to be a lot of opportunity to target some gains and avoid some losses along the way. I retire from the government on June 29 and plan to make this my new role each day to stay in the game. Again, may the market be with us!
Nice to see my annual plan is at the higher side of my trend range for the year. For my TSP, I remained in DWCPF and I'm watching with caution. No regrets so far.
Thanks for the feedback Baja6string. May a positive market be with us!
Hi all. The forum has been quiet lately. Sending a ping to see if anyone is feeling a concern on overextending gains. I'm setting at 7.77% for the year with S-Fund mostly driving the train and I'm watching closely using my process. Is anyone targeting a move? Thinking about taking a pause or moving to a less risk based fund until I see another run. Would appreciate any feedback because I'll always consider myself a "mostly successful" novice. HA. Thanks!
Same for me. 100% S Fund. Hopeful to show a 6%+ gain for the year by the end of March. Very close now. Happy investing!
Hi Baja, I agree. I'm fully invested as well and watching closely. The year has been favorable so far.
Thanks for sharing Frenchee.
Thanks Baja. Happy to see your assessment. I've been in for about two weeks as well. Normally August and September are down months so I'm hoping the end of weakness will put us in a better position for the remaining portion of 2023. I'm setting at a positive 14.8% for the year so no overall complaints. And I agree that more posters would be ideal. I don't consider myself as fully schooled on the investment process but have learned a great deal following this site and have a few years of solid results as a direct result.
Thanks Baja. I see the same but after this past year and already claiming 8.3% for January at 100% in, I chose to protect my gains for Jan. Hopeful for a new run and if so, I’ll be ready to jump back in early Feb. Good luck!
As always Frenchee, thanks for your perspective and feedback. Nice to see similar views that reinforce what's being seen or questioned. Appreciate it.
Thanks Frenchee. I was able to grab the gain from yesterday and I'm glad your analysis supports my projections. Definitely appreciate you sharing what you're seeing!
I stumbled on this article and thought I would share. https://federalnewsnetwork.com/mike-causey-federal-report/2022/03/5000-new-tsp-options-is-there-an-esg-fund-for-you/
Thanks baja6string. Great feedback. I appreciate it.
Thanks for your perspective Frenchee. Even though S seems to show plenty of room for growth, I guess long term performance is a better indicator when comparing the two.
Continuing to learn/refine the craft. As always, thanks!!
Hi Frenchee. Just seeing your post and I completed my review this morning and chose to select S fund because the gains seemed to be more substantive of late, than C, when comparing the charts (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, etc.). It could be I haven't mastered my review of charts to dial that in. Do you see negative implication for being in all S versus C. Any feedback you would provide is appreciated. Thanks much!!
Hi folks. Hope you all are well. This year the percentages are harder to come by, but ending last year at 49.66, I'm not complaining. I've been monitoring/applying my long standing process which averages between 25-28% annually and this year is a struggle to get beyond 20. Hopeful to hit that mark today. Certainly a sign of the times, but there may be time to recover between now and the end of December. Good luck and happy investing!
Hi folks. Hope you all are well. This year the percentages are harder to come by, but ending last year at 49.66, I'm not complaining. I've been monitoring/applying my long standing process which averages between 25-28% annually and this year is a struggle to get beyond 20. Hopeful to hit that mark today. Certainly a sign of the times, but there may be time to recover between now and the end of December. Good luck and happy investing!
Thanks Baja6string. I agree. I was successful at claiming 100% of the recent gains in the S fund this month and went ahead and moved to G fund in anticipation of the fed meetings(and an on average "murky" September month). I've learned to enjoy "red" as much as "green" by being out at the right time. Sure to not always time it correctly, but not too shabby. Will be watching September and October very closely. I've also dabbled with overlaying the many L fund options to be considered in lieu of going straight to G. I've studied that out a bit have have been somewhat successful playing some of those options versus G, similar to a dollar cost average concept. Always looking for ways to study the process and expand options.
Thanks for adding a post to the forum....there hasn't been much life here lately.
Hi "The Free Nebula", I was concerned about this a few years ago and decided that the system works so well that we should be in the market even after retiring. I target a minimum of 1% per month and normally do much better annually. It appears most members on the site have a great process for monitoring the market and show a positive outcome. I would hate to side step that because of the retirement trap. I retire in three years, for the second time (air force), and decided three years ago that I would define/build a pad needed to front load my first year of retirement and live off of that for the first year to allow me to continue with investing at a normal pace. This will allow my monthly retirement funds to pool in a money market account and draw some interest to front load the following year, and on, and on. So I do not plan to take an annuity for a few years. It's like having a triple back up plan. Just my two cents worth.
Sharing tidbits of my process, if interested. This URL is from October, but relevant for annual pre-forecasting(so I think). What was surprising to me, was that after I spent 6 months building a file of historical data for the four TSP indexes dating back to their respective starting points and aligning/filtering so I can compare current date/month to historical trends/dates, I see this URL showing a historical average rollup chart of my detail. Was very interesting to see after I invested time building my data, but, at least I now have another tool to assist in pre-forecasting.
I try to set up a future Jan-Dec file (my crystal ball) each December targeting go-in points from this detail to have a baseline for analysis. The concept has proved to be beneficial for me over the last four years. Note this URL is specific to C Fund.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/historically-this-is-the-day-that-the-stock-market-sees-its-richest-gains-2019-10-28?mod=mw_latestnews
Hi folks. I've been following F as a lesser weighted option than C/S during the bull phase and see trends where F increases at the sell signal for C/S. Likewise, I tend to forecast/target a minimum of 1% gain in C/S at the beginning of the month for my first allocation and use the second on F if it plays out. Lately, it seems the monthly cycle has shifted where there may be room to grab F first and then shift to C/S....and I'm no stranger to G, but not if required. Outside of looking at historical data and seasonal musings, I monitor stock charts and investing.com, specifically the technical detail to see what the sub indexes are doing. F seems to show a strong buy signal for November so I'm monitoring the RSI and MACD on a daily basis to consider a quick F gain before going into C or S. Historical data targets going into S on the 19th so I'm monitoring to see if current trends and technical data supports that plan. Bottom Line, monthly goal of 1% excluding contributions and matching. Looking for my 1% in November. Currently setting at 27% for the year so I'm not complaining.
I've been riding the "F" train the second half of the month after some initial gains for an overall positive month and continued great year. Now to see if G remains probable going in to October waiting on a second half rally. Always monitoring for an opening.
Found this yesterday. FYSA if not already aware.
"As many know, the I Fund has been scheduled to switch from the MSCI EAFE Index ( https://www.msci.com/eafe) of 21 developed markets to the MSCI ACWI Index (https://www.msci.com/acwi) of 23 developed and 26 emerging markets.
Members of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations are urging the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board (FRTIB) to reconsider because the MSCI ACWI includes substantial investments in China.
See the story at https://www.myfederalretirement.com/tsp-i-fund-change/."
Hi folks.
Just wanted to share my appreciation for this forum. I value the groups perspectives, detail, and opinions that are shared on occasion and weigh that in as part of my analysis when looking at all of the variables. I still consider myself to be a market rookie, but with your past indirect direction and help, along with my own research, learning, and application, I've really grown in the market world, specifically TSP. The positive results prove that learning and application makes a difference.
Thanks guys!
Steve
Thanks Frenchee! I still consider myself to be an apprentice at this but it doesn't take much to figure out a loss as compared to an expected gain.
Cheers
Hi folks,
Can I get some feedback regarding the S fund and it's associated tickers? My research shows that there isn't a definitive ticker which is 100% equal to the S fund unless I'm off point, but my analysis and allocation activity associated to the $EMW Wilshire 4500 should have shown a huge gain since there was a 3.5 spike. I also reallocated the same day to prevent the expected loss the following day. My TSP balance did not track the same. If anything, I saw a reduction. New detail shows that the ticker of DWCPF shows to be more in line.
Again....any feedback on this?
Thanks much!
I've stayed in as folks seem to be getting comfortable with the trend and it has definitely paid off. The below URL states Stock market’s record November shouldn’t scare off a Santa Claus rally, but the resistance lines are forecasting a dip and a bull period. I pulled out this morning with hopes of a drop and hope to dive back in early December.
Good luck folks and happy holidays!!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-markets-record-november-points-to-strong-december-2016-11-23
Same for me Frenchee. Plus, when I click on "work a click" itself, I shows an AGG chart that you posted in March of 2011.
:)
I have to say that I took a chance and dove in Monday morning and got cold feet and pulled out early Tuesday. The result was perfect. I wish my crystal ball was that accurate twice a month, but I know that isn't the best course to follow. Will be cautious moving forward. Happy Holidays to all ihub friends!!
I did yesterday frenchee from analyzing your detail and it seems to be "paying off". Let's see if it will stick around for a few days.
Frenchee, Since I'm just learning the trade (or attempting to), I pay close attention to all of the post on a daily basis versus commenting. Thanks for providing your insight. Your and everyone's perspective is positive as I'm showing benifits, even if they include not losing money versus hitting it big.
Once I gain more confidence I'll chime in. Thanks