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As far as we know, CB's option to purchase one percent of the common stock at $.001 per share expired three days ago. Perhaps the "in perpetuity" extension PR'd on July 19 extended the expiration date or included a new option, but as is with many things ICNB, details of that contract extension were virtually nil.
Believe what you wish. The numbers do not jibe.
I continue to question the "100k cases this year" sales projection stated in the September 13 press release. The numbers do not jibe.
If we generously project Q4 sales of $2.75 million, the 2017's annual sales would total $3.5 million. Either:
1. ICNB only receives $35/case (<$6/bottle)
or
2. The brand will NOT surpass a benchmark of 100k cases this year.
or
3. I'm missing something (which is hardly unheard of).
From the 9/13 p.r.:
The distribution expansion has been impressive. I am in complete agreement with that. I remain uncertain what that bodes for the stock price.
Vetting information doesn't appear to be Christie's forte, but hey, misinformed free publicity is still free publicity. We'll take it.
Spinning? Hardly. "Belissima-now-rated TOP 5 in the WORLD in popularity!!" is spinning. I'm simply stating what the vinepair.com ranking actually reflects.
Well, let's see. The most searched for wine had 104,863 searches and by the time we reach the 100th most searched for wine, that number drops to 8,812 searches, so I think we can safely assume that the 6285th most searched for wine has somewhat fewer searches than that.
https://www.wine-searcher.com/top-wines.lml
It would be interesting to learn how many searches on winesearcher.com are required to earn the 6285th ranking.
That is a very bad headline by vinepair.com. What the ranking is actually showing is that Belissima Prosecco Brut was the 5th most searched for prosecco on wine-searcher.com in the month of October, 2017 (and the 6285th most searched for wine overall). It doesn't necessarily reflect anything more that that.
https://www.wine-searcher.com/regions-prosecco
(Incidentally, October's 6285th most searched for rank is Belissima's lowest overall rank on wine-searcher.com since January.)
https://www.wine-searcher.com/market-556976-0001
Incredible that people still post that. That's not only a 17 year old hoax. It's one of the most famous hoaxes ever.
https://www.thestreet.com/story/1165692/1/raging-bull-chat-room-devotees-get-dose-of-whopper.html
So was it this to which you were referring? #msg-132597367
But..but...I thought that "Tell One, Tell All!" was an emblazoned motto on the DeCicco family coat of arms.
Well, yes. That is another possibility.
On message boards (especially message boards filled with nearly universal positive sentiment), potentially positive outcomes take on lives of their own. Monday's "we hope" becomes Tuesday's "we suspect" which becomes Wednesday's "we think" which becomes Thursday's "we know" which becomes Friday's "we've proven."
But I do not discount the possibility that the "true believers" group has access to some information that we, the great unwashed, do not. It's possible.
"True believers" must come in a variety of shapes and sizes. I'm not sure that I could distinguish an insider from a wannabe insider at the moment.
That DD is available to only those who have been chosen to enter the chamber "of true believers in ICNB" (it actually says that).
Bummer.
I too am surprised to learn that apparently, there are many hogsheads of organic prosecco laying around just in case someone needs them. (On another note, I tried another organic prosecco last night, Ziobaffa DOC, To my admittedly untrained palate, it tasted neither better nor worse than Bellissima Brut and was priced at $11.99. Might be worth a try if you come across it.)
And if they pull it off, I will happily admit I was wrong.
I simply do not believe that they can just click their fingers and make such an exponential jump in volume without their being serious supply chain issues.
The second fermentation of the Zero Sugar requires seven months in the autoclave. That would have required some remarkable prescience to have such vast quantities available in October.
Eagle, I'm not downplaying the possible significance of the Publix deal. I'm merely saying that jumping from circa 8,000 cases of wine to 80,000 cases of wine in one quarter seems highly improbable to me.
I can't imagine that Rich had 25,000-50,000 cases of Bellissima stockpiled just in case he landed a major deal. This isn't widgets or paper clips. You can't just crank up the machine. It takes time to produce, bottle and distribute wine.
Wow. Okay, we shall see.
So do you think that Q4 revenues will be a staggering $4 million-plus? Even if the demand was there (which I doubt), I find it incredible that this small company could ramp up to meet those sales numbers so quickly.
I've seen grandiose numbers bandied about, but I have no specific knowledge of how big it is. Even if it is a huge number, how quickly could ICNB get all of the product on the shelves?
Publix is 1150 stores. Bellissima has been in more outlets than that number for quite some time, and you've seen the sales figures.
If Q3 revenues are in the $400K range, that would make total revenues for the first three quarters around $900K. At $52/case, that's less than 17.5K cases. If so, how on earth could they "surpass a benchmark of 100k cases this year"? I still cannot understand why Rich put that in the p.r.
Correct. The 10-Q for the third quarter will be due on 11/14.
DOCG (Denominazione di Origine Controllata e Garantita) simply designates that the origin of the product is controlled and guaranteed. Most of Italy's regions have wines that are designated DOCG. For some varietals, the designation is important. For others, not so much.
Thank you for the clarification.
Yesterday morning, in a post since removed, a regular contributor here posted that Rich "is very nice to" (the posters at another forum) at least the group I am a part of.." I assumed that information was correct and meant that Rich posted there at least occasionally. Apologies for the incorrect information if that is the case.
There's a well-behaved-boys-only forum that Rich posts on occasionally. Perhaps he will give some third quarter guidance there in a couple of weeks. I am very curious to see what Q3 sales are.
"If their production goes up by an order of magnitude, where are all of the "special organic grapes" going to come from?"
They have to obtain them, crush them, ferment them (anywhere from eight weeks to seven months), bottle them, ship them, and distribute them. Harvest time is August-September. The logistics seem daunting to me, but I make no claim to having expertise.
" Have to imagine Rich has a reason for dropping a specific number of 100,000..." It's an interesting point, especially since at this point, a projection of 50,000 cases would have been greeted with overwhelming enthusiasm.
I will be stunned if they actually sell 100,000 cases in 2017. If the approximately $52 per case estimate used here is correct, ICNB sold less than 10,000 cases in the first two quarters combined, and if Rich's statement of having "already booked sales close to Q2 in the first 6 weeks of Q3" generously projects out to another 10,000 cases in the third quarter, that would still leave a whopping 80,000 cases to be sold in the 4th quarter. That's a lot of bubbly, especially for a company that has experienced supply chain problems in the past.
I hope they do sell 100,000 cases, but I will believe it when I see it.
My question was about the specificity of an order having been placed for 30-40K cases, not whether Publix had approved Bellissima for sale.
Speaking of our esteemed CEO, I wish he would conduct some sort of very controlled Q & A, perhaps accepting some written questions to which he could provide brief, written answers/commentary. I'd love to know what is the biggest seller (the anecdotal evidence is suspect), what has proven to be the biggest obstacle to date, how their supply chain can amp up from a sub-$200K quarter to a supposed multi-million dollar quarter in such a short time, how they will meet an immediate increased demand for a sparkling wine that requires seven months fermentation (the Zero Sugar), etc.