searching for the next big thing......
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Lots of people exit prior to PDUFA since it's often a quick 25%+ run toward the EVENT so I don't read anything into the current weakness.
However the PDUFA event can swing 100%+ up or 50% down worst case (cash if our floor).
Heck,I factor PATH at well above 66% approval chance; I'll take that coin flip any day.
You're basically risking a buck for a potential to make $3+ as it head toward 6.
The BEST way to play these is do this 10-20 times a year and your wins will make up for all your losses and then some.
PATH=WIN; imho =)
What is the long term play you speak of? Is there room for anyone else? I'm sure many are curious the stock symbol.
JIVE IPO went off NICE but I believe they are growing at 40%+. We likely will do around 40M in revenue and some don't expect more than 45-48MM for 2012. Your thoughts?
I'd say a P/S ratio of 5 would be all we can expect for the next year or so unless we can grow at 30%+ (assuming the mobile apps start bringing in cash). Jive however might be able to get to a P/S of 8-10 if it can get growth up to 50% which some predict.
That's good. I think others were worried about QPSA share price (in relation to the deal and $100M price) but that isn't a concern now.
When deal closes price should stabilize and future movement will be about revenue and profit. Both of which will be up big after this merger.
Thanks for update Innpact. Do you think this can be a 100M revenue company in the next few years? I like what I've heard so far. At $3 bucks and a 50M market cap, it seems like a cheap way to buy into a great company (aka My Yearbook).
With the stock down near $3 bucks, 17M shares only equals approx 51M (17x3) in equity. That plus the 18m cash makes it a 69M deal. Was the 100M guaranteed or was that a "cap". I was hoping that the 17M shares will be it regardless of where pps is (assuming its under $5)?
All in all we are buying MyYearbook for 2x to 3x revenue. Wait till the market gives us a similar multiple after are combined revenues break 50M. At these level QPSA can be the 3+ bagger we all hoped.
I doubt they will try to merge the 2 sites. I actually thought they'd try to buy MySpace when it was being sold for under 40M. That would have been a cheap way to get eyeballs and have more exposure for their games. Their games are quite profitable if you don't have to pay huge revenue share to the likes of Facebook. Considering that the combined entity is trading at 4x revenues I think that a floor might be put in at these high single digits - finally.
Paying 3x revenues and 3x a user should at least put in some metrics for future valuation.
Now with 70M+ users we need only generate a dollar a user to justify a 200M market cap. Considering that My Yearbook did that without the benefit of an in house gaming division, there's no reason we wont be able to do that or a multiple of that.
Imagine if we could generate $2 a year per user in revenue. Or get 5% of the user based to spend $5 or more a month. The we could challenge the old highs.
It might be tough integrating the 2 sites; likely run them both separately and just have the game division create for each niche.
Stop losses are in place. I'm sure you've used them too. I see QPSA as a trading vehicle now until the dust clears on the "Social Network" side of the business. I'm still in the stock to see how far the gaming side can go. I am pleased they got a social game hit. I do not share your prediction for a $20 2011 stock price though. I'd be happy with anything in double digits at this stage.
Revenue split makes the DSM and gaming models much less lucrative. I'd rather see a Latin based social network get to 100M users. I think the social gaming thing is great but just 6 months ago we all were talking about how "the Network" was growing so fact and this stock had a double digit price.
DSM and game monetizing will need to be in the 10s of millions of dollars to justify current market cap. For those that predicted a $20 stock then we really need the social network to grow. Or hope we get caught up in Facebook and Zynga hype.
The 600k uses was a HUGE surprise and I hope it really was technical issues. However, agreed 38M email addresses have some value but I'd peg it around a few dollars each.
Charles I'm surprised you haven't posted more about the bad news.
Ugg (my reaction), 600,000 new users is not good at all. Quepasa.com will die on the vine at that level. That means we have to pay the gatekeepers for access to their eyeballs.
All chips in on the gaming division now. QPSA will need dozens of Million user game hits to be able to monetize effectively if you assume a 3-5% conversion and 10 dollars a month per person.
Tough to see how we ever become anything close to a Billion dollar company if our user base peters out well before 40 Million users.
QPSA needs to generate it's own eyeballs otherwise it becomes just another software developer going after the social gaming niche.
PLEASE TELL ME I'M WRONG
I've read as rule of thumb that a Million player game can produce 5M to 10M in yearly revenue with gross margins of 40-60%. If we have a hit here and can get 10 more then we'd have a company that can do 40-60M in net income from gaming alone. What multiple would you put on that 40-60M on a company growing 40% yoy in active users. Maybe 20X-40x PE right?
This might work out after all. Heck a sustained double digit PPS for XMAS would be great.
Charles, how do you model the revenue for Wonderful City. Are you assuming 5-10% of the active player spend $1-5 per month or something similar to that. I think that's what was suggested on this thread. Game popularity is fleeting so if QPSA can't monetize this on Facebook then that will be a disappointment. We must strike while the iron is hot (per game that is). Good thing more "irons" are coming.
Loo,
How's UTOG doing. Did you grab some more at a lower price. If not you might have another chance come mid month.
Marlon,
Please let us know your thoughts on UTOG now. I'm sure those who are caught in the trading halt will appreciate your sage like advice.
Does this game have revenue opportunity? Didn't Abbot say like 5-10% of the gamers will spend up to $100 on their favorite game. I've heard others say a popular game can generate a revenue multiple of its user base. Does this game have revenue potential in the millions or will we need hundreds more of these good ones.
Lazed,
Do you have a link to "Wonderful Cities" users. Where do you get the info?
ARTICLE PROPOSES UTOG PUMP IS NEARING END
http://seekingalpha.com/article/269993-uniontown-energy-nearly-worthless-stock-being-heavily-promoted?source=yahoo
Here's some more info for those doing their DD.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/269993-uniontown-energy-nearly-worthless-stock-being-heavily-promoted?source=yahoo
Glen,
Please name some of the other pumps. I'm sure the UTOG bag holders will appreciate. =)
Flapp,
You likely already know but this stock is a PnD.
Loo, why don't you tell us your thoughts on former CEO Terry Fields? Does his name bring comfort do your investment? If so you'll be happy to know that you can likely get this stock cheaper in the future.
MUST READ INFO ON "UTOG" FORMER CEO
*YOU MIGHT WANT TO RESEARCH THE TRADING PATTERNS OF THESE BELOW STOCKS THAT HE ALSO PROMOTED
***BAG HOLDERS YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED; TRADERS HAVE FUN; PUMPERS (IT'S YOUR SOUL NOT MINE =)
“Mr. Terry Fields, LL.B., BSc.”
A quick search also revealed that Mr. Fields is also CEO or president of the following public companies:
Uniontown Energy (UTOGD-OTCBB, $1.65)
Formcap Corp (FRMC-Pink, $0.02)
Daulton Capital Corp (DUCP-OTCBB, $0.19)
Spirit Exploration (SPXP-Pink, $0.01)
First Pursuit Ventures Ltd (FPV-Venture, C$0.16)
Malwin Ventures (MLWN-Pink, $0.23)
And associated or formerly associated with the following companies:
Yankee Hat Minerals (KHT-Venture, C$0.07)
GoEnergy (GOEE-Pink, $0.55)
Liberty Silver (LBSV-OTCBB, $0.43)
Meadow Bay Capital (MAY-Venture, C$0.18)
ND,
Have you looked into UTOG. They have quite an active board going now. All this talk about a 300M market cap company with no revenues but plenty of press releases. Also I'm sure you might recognize their CEO from past dealings.
MUST READ INFO ON "UTOG" CEO
*YOU MIGHT WANT TO RESEARCH THE TRADING PATTERNS OF THESE BELOW STOCKS THAT HE ALSO PROMOTED
***BAG HOLDERS YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED; TRADERS HAVE FUN; PUMPERS (IT'S YOUR SOUL NOT MINE =)
“Mr. Terry Fields, LL.B., BSc.”
A quick search also revealed that Mr. Fields is also CEO or president of the following public companies:
Uniontown Energy (UTOGD-OTCBB, $1.65)
Formcap Corp (FRMC-Pink, $0.02)
Daulton Capital Corp (DUCP-OTCBB, $0.19)
Spirit Exploration (SPXP-Pink, $0.01)
First Pursuit Ventures Ltd (FPV-Venture, C$0.16)
Malwin Ventures (MLWN-Pink, $0.23)
And associated or formerly associated with the following companies:
Yankee Hat Minerals (KHT-Venture, C$0.07)
GoEnergy (GOEE-Pink, $0.55)
Liberty Silver (LBSV-OTCBB, $0.43)
Meadow Bay Capital (MAY-Venture, C$0.18)
If that's the pipeline then were already capacity constrained. It would seem we would blow away the 36M high end of guidance for 2011. However with margins being under attack it seems unlikely we can generate more the .25/sh even on 40M revenue. That's likely why we can still buy this fast grower for $5. However as 2012 production comes into play I expect the stock to respond to the triple digit increased revenue growth potential. If others see a catalyst prior to 2012 please let me know as I too would like to see double digits prior to the Italian job.
What's the high end capacity of our current production (in revenue potential)? Since new production wont come online until 2013, does it seem possible to eclipse 50M revenues and get to .50/sh in net income with our current infrastructure prior to 2013. If not then double digit stock price will have to weight until the Mayan calendar comes and goes I fear.
Shini,
What broker do you recommend to get these "hard to borrows". Also if I have a 6-7 figure account does that change your recommendation?
I'm in the US but am willing to get an international broker if that were to make sense.
Growth rate, time on site, demographics, revenues, etc... all come into the valuation play. If it was merely about users then MySpace would still be worth near a Billion. However the rumors is they can't even sell MySpace for 20 Million.
QPSA story has promise but likely our "active users" and revenues aren't anywhere near those who have 500M plus valuations.
Qpsa actives users are valued at $40 a head (assuming 10% of the 30m are active per Abbott). I see this as high but the market is forward looking; however if we can double active users then it then becomes reasonable. Active users is the only worthwhile metric right now. Don't expect this stock to zoom right back to 20M on fundamentals.
Anyhow double digits by 2012 might be possible.
4Kids
What are your "shadows" that you reference? Who do you think is manipulating the stock: MMs, hedgies?? And why this micro cap company. You've made reference to program trades and manipulation but please elaborate for the rest of us. Also why don't any of these hedge fund names show up as "institutional holders". I'm more inclined to think retail and day traders are flipping this. Especially with all the cheer leading from long and shorts.
Charles what's your take on QPSA active users. Most people say it can be 10-35% of the user base. If we have 10M+ active users (out of the 30M+ registrations) that'd be great. If the number is below 5M then it will be hard to scale in the time frames we all hope for. For comparison (see link) you can see RenRen's active users have grown much more slowly the their registrations. Are QPSA's registration numbers similarly inflated?
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/4/19/saupload_renren1.png
John and/or Kirk
What do you make of the stock swings this month. It seems we have gone from .90 to 1.20 back toward .90 (rinse repeat). Has the stock always moved in 10-20% chunks in a matter of days. Do you see anything below a dollar as a good time to dollar cost in for more. My own account jumps a lot nowadays and I imagine yours likely moves in 5 to 6 figure increments based on these swings. I hope we don't go back to the 80 cent level or at least not until I have some dry powder. Any insights? Is someone liquidating. Or are MMs playing with the stock.
Value,
You stated you lost 40% on this one. I thought you hedged with puts.
In general, I'm surprised many here are taking such "huge" hits (assuming the pps falls 50%+ when it begins trading again).
This stock did have put protection and most people here are not market newbies. At one time I owned some CCME but then closed my position but I kept my protection as the tides turned these past months.
Anyhow, I'm curious if anyone else used options. Seems prudent for anyone who went into this thing with more then a 10% position.
Good new is that Quepasa could crack this list below (note- a good read on understanding the "stickiness") once it gets past a 10x multiple of views to members. Also it may be all Quepasa views are coming from only 5% of its members. Thus for those 1.5M+ users to generate 19M page views then that would be acceptable. That would beg the question though of why 95% of the others are delving deeper into the site and how can this be rectified?
http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/01/12/and-the-most-engaging-social-network-is/
PS. Some interesting discussion of this is occurring on other websites (in this case a poker site) as well; see posting 11 in below link.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/30/business-finance-investing/quepasa-qpsa-only-publically-traded-social-network-955941/#post24181714
Elephant, I take it you also have a near 7 figure dollar position. Can you please shed your take on "page views".
Please note, I like this stock and it seems we can be a 100M user network by late 2013. Also most that have reached that rare air have at one time had 1B market caps or implied valuations.
However, are you worried about slowing subscriber growth. And/or worse, a user base that is "one and done" after signing up and then not engaging. Any discussions is comforting to us longs who are holding through the storm. Thanks in advance.
I see. Sorry for all the questions Charles but you have emerged as the proponent who is cited most now that Ian Cassell has gone underground. Not to mention your 7 figure dollar position was notable in this small cap.
Anyhow, let me ask you your opinion on the "page view numbers". I'm told that 30M users should generate 500M to 1B page views. Even if we only assume a 20% active user base (i.e. 6M) clicking on 40+ different links/pages a week (160+month x 6 is approx 1B page views). What are your thoughts on this and why are are numbers only a small fraction of what we'd assume?
Thank you for all your posts.
Charles are you saying your 100% in and margined on QPSA. If not do you plan on pairing your other holdings and buying more in the $5 or $4 where longer term support seems likely. I am on the sidelines but I have found many comparing us to BADOO who had an implied value of 300 million back when they were in the "growth" stage. Alas, they never monetized. http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/pda/2008/mar/05/elevatorpitchwhybadoowants
Charles are you buying or selling at these levels? Your conviction in the past has encouraged me to do my DD. Are you still ok with the growth numbers or is a BEBO type trajectory a concern?
It might go lower but I'd love to get it lower since I missed buying it last Summer. And that was 15M users ago.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/256953-is-quepasa-really-worth-more-than-myspace
What's your total position and % of portfolio in regards to QPSA?
I think you'll be quite happy with these prices once the "social investing" theme hits its full stride come summer. Matters not if the stock drops in the 4s right now since we'll have 40 million users by Independence day. Even at 5$ a user we will have 100% percent gain (in theory =).