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Buy PRIM @ $40.20
Buy 924.83 PRIM @ $40.20 = $37178
Sell SOXS @ $3.95/Buy PRIM @ $40.20
Sell 20000 SOXS @ $3.95 = 79000
Buy 1965.17 PRIM @ $40.20 = $79000
Sell SOXS @ $3.95
Updated portfolio
HALO 3000 shares
SOXS 20000 shares
GERN 50000 shares
Cash $37524
Sell HALO $39.67
Sell 932.56 shares HALO @ $39.67 = $36995
Updated portfolio
GERN 50000 shares
SOXS 20000 shares
HALO 3932.56 shares
Cash $529
Buy SOXS @ $4
Buy 10 shares SOXS @ $4 = $40
Sell PRIM @ $39.98/Buy SOXS @ $4.00
Sell 2000 PRIM @ $39.98 = $79,960
Buy 19990 SOXS @ $4 = $79960
Hweb- PRIM, maybe you're right
I do feel holding into earnings is always dangerous. However they did just pick up $2B in contracts, but that may be priced in already.
PRIM Dec qtr tomorrow after the bell
I will likely hold this one into earnings, as I like the sector, and they just got $2B in contracts. The stock is up about 15% since the contracts, but still only a 13 PE going forward, with around 25% eps growth going forward.
This market is dangerous
I wasn't in the market in the 1970s, but that would have likely been the only other time in my life, that I felt as I do now. That is, that money in fixed income at 4%-5% is by far better than playing the market. Although I believe fundamentals should be the main guide for buying stocks, I have learned over the years, that technicals can't be ignored. I have done a study of the market ups and downs over the last 100+ years, and have found the following. Every time the market(S&P & Dow only) have both gone up 500%+ from any given point in time, there shortly after ensues a correction of 45%+. Well on March 6, 2009, the Dow was around 6500, and the S&P around 750. The Dow is now up a little over 500%, and the S&P 580% since then. In addition, the bond yield curve has been inverted for about 21 months, and it's predicted a recession 100% of the time over the last 70 years, within 24 months of the original inversion. So there is my technical reasons a major correction is near.
On the fundamental side, the S&P now has an average PE of 21-22 going forward, and regardless of which stocks are more heavily weighted, an average PE of 15-16 is normal historically, unless the the economy is in the beginnings of a huge recovery mode from a recent recession(which it's not). Also we have a situation in the economy which looks like the beginnings of stagflation to me, which was the case in the early 1970s, and lasted over a decade, while the market tanked almost 70% from its previous highs ! Of course, since the average age of those in the stock market is two+ generations younger than the 1970 investors, few remember the pain back then. Even the pain of 2000 and 2008 is not felt by many investors today. Bottom line is, AI is the ONLY reason this market is going bonkers, and I believe it all ends badly over the coming year or so. Then I believe there will be a multiple year bear market, and that interest rates will stay where they are or go higher.
R59- GERN vs RLYP(a blast from the past)
Re, do you remember Relypsa(RLYP) from 2015/2016 ? They had a single drug Valtessa(for Hyperkalemia), they had only one major competitor with an FDA approved drug treating hyperkalemia, but RLYP's drug was better IMO. Lastly RLYP had diluted quite a bit to keep alive, and had only one-two quarters left of cash burn while awaiting FDA approval for Valtessa. Now lets look at GERN
They have a single drug Imetelstat to treat a Leukemia called MDS, they have only one major competitor with an FDA approved drug to treat MDS, GERNs drug is better IMO, and GERN has two quarters left of cash burn while waiting for FDA approval. Wow, now is that unreal ! RLYP and GERN are identical stories going into the FDA approval wait.
So I decided last night to go back and see how RLYP stock acted during the period before and after FDA approval, subsequent to a buyout that took place several months after FDA approval for Valtessa. Turned out that RLYP went down AFTER FDA approval to $10, only to creep back up to the mid teens soon after, and then got bought out a few months later at $32 ! Now I ended up selling all my shares around $17(about breakeven), thinking something had to be really wrong for RLYP to be acting like that. At the time, I remember articles and the Yahoo message board full of posters saying it was because they had only one quarter left of cash burn, and with no pharma partner, despite FDA approval- Wow, is all I have to say, as GERN is in the exact same boat RLYP was before the FDA announcement. However more importantly, this chart pointed out to me how manipulated a one tick pony biotech can be.
Re, GERN is in the exact same boat as RLYP was before the FDA announcement. However unlike RLYP, I don't plan to get scared out of GERN, should they get a thumbs up from the Oncology Advisory Board on March 14(97% of stocks that get a positive review from the committee go on to get FDA approval). However I can see how RLYP didn't really rally much until it finally got bought out Re, this gives me much insight into how one trick pony biotechs are treated all the way till a partner or buyout, and helps me understand better why GERN has acted the way it has, and may likely continue all the way till a partner or buyout, even if they get FDA approval
SS- SQ
What do you think about this one ? Seems like a strong financial to me, as analysts are forecasting 32% eps growth in 2025 vs 2024, and the PE is 20 on 2025 estimates. So a PEG ratio of around .66 on 2025..
Wadegarret portfolio- Up 8% YTD/Up 185% since inception 2022
RXRX, another AI manic stock
My question is, does RXRX have a monopoly ? I mean I understand they have some proprietary software, but won't every large pharma be able to use AI to find new drugs, or is RXRX the only one ?
NVDA can't send the entire semi sector
& Nasdaq to the moon forever ! This has gotten parabolic, just as in 2000, and can't go on much longer IMO. Of course with this insane market, who knows
^SOX up 100%+ over 1.3 years & 350% since March 2020
Up 45% over the last 4 months. All this with an occasional 5%-7% correction. It's hard for me to believe AI will be bigger than the Internet was in potential. What I see hundreds of billions of dollars poured into data centers & chips all supporting AI, and no one seems to know much about the profit potential.
NVDA- historic PEG ratio insight
If anyone followed NVDA, you know they were selling at around a 50 PE going forward as the AI boom was building. The growth expected at the time was also around 50% going forward. So the PEG ration all during 2023 was around 1. Now when I look at all the numerous analyst opinions on what NVDA will grow like going forward, I see around 23%-25% in eps growth expected. Now using the same PEG ratio of 1, with NVDA expected to make $25 going forward, that would mean around a 25 PE is approriate for future growth. Applying that to $25 in eps, would get you to a $625 price target IMO. Therefore the stock is well over valued at present price of $800
I am back to shorting ideas
How many on this board would buy NVDA or SMCI now ? AMD had a bad report on Jan 30, went down around 10% after hours, and is now up 25% since then ! That's insane. I believe AI mania is very similar to the Internet mania of 2000, and I believe it's time to start shorting tech in some fashion.
Nelson- AAOI horrible report, which is why I rarely
hold a stock into earnings, especially high beta stocks !
AAOI earnings out- what a disappointment !
Guidance for a loss in Q1, where I thought $.15, and now they say Q2 will be better ? Wow, this one is a great example of the risk holding into earnings that I always harp on !
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/applied-optoelectronics-reports-fourth-quarter-211000668.html
Value- AAOI has few analysts vs SMCI
I agree, if you used only analyst estimates. However I'm not going by analyst opinions on AAOI, as I've done my own math, and come out with something completely different based on revenue recognition on the $300M MSFT contract. SMCI has too many moving parts for me to try and analyze, so on that one I am going by the numerous analysts on average, which is around $30 going forward.
Hweb, I agree 100%- stocks aren't acting rational
To me, we're on the cusp of a major correction. That's one reason I have 95% of my cash outside the market in fixed income 4%-5%. I will only chase this market once is corrects 45%+, whenever that will be.
SMCI- a tempting short at $1000
Value- SMCI vs AAOI
Valuing these stocks is very hard right now, as the parabolic growth can only last so long. Having said that, I believe the proper PE for SMCI is 25 max going forward, and 20 for AAOI. That's why I sold AAOI at $19.25. I mean I made a nice score of around 120% in a couple months, and $20 was my target, assuming $1 in 2024. For SMCI, analysts think $29 in eps going forward so around $700 to $750. Personally I think this whole AI thing has gone crazy, and will correct similarly to the 2000 Internet bubble. I mean maybe not 80% + down on the Nasdaq, but I believe a 50% correction on the Nasdaq sometime over the next 6-9 months.
SMCI 30% daily moves aren't healthy
Stock down from $1070 to $700 in 2 sessions, then up from $700 to $950 the next 2 sessions isn't healthy. I would say we're near a top on this whole AI craze.
AI stocks parabolic moves similar to the Internet stocks in 2000
I understand that PEs aren't as high as they were in 2000, but still way higher than historic, and the market is due for a 10%+ pullback. I still think AI is the ONLY reason for this market continuing to rage, and I still think we will see a recession start by May 1 .
AAOI- Anyone holding into earnings after bell ?
Stock has gone from $9 to $20 since last earnings, so it would take a super report today to keep that going. At $20, the assumption is for huge growth for March qtr guidance, and talk of continued strong growth in data center orders. At this point, I have to see the road to well over $1 in 2024, and then I'd get back in. My guess is that guidance for the March qtr will be around $.15.
Updated portfolio
PRIM 2000 shares
HALO 3932.56 shares
GERN 40000 shares
Cash $569
Sell PRIM $39.02/Buy HALO $40.13
Sell 1010.76 PRIM @ $39.02 = $39440
Buy 982.80 HALO @ $40.13 = $39440
I was wrong on SMCI & NVDA, but I think
the AI boom is settling down, as NVDA didn't guide for nearly as much growth as they have in the past. I mean 8%-9% more in revenues next qtr over this one is still great, but things are slowing down, and valuations will trend down a bit from here IMO. Therefore I think it's time to fade rallies, ie the ones after hours for SMCI and NVDA. I will be watching though for AAOI after hours tomorrow.
A correction & updated portfolio
PRIM 3010.76(not 3000) shares
GERN 40000 shares
HALO 2949.76
Cash $569
HALO- Surprised volume isn't higher today
Only a little bit more than normal, despite a great report, and very low valuation for the growth expected. Also surprised the stock isn't up more, as a PEG ratio of around .33 going forward is unreal !
AAOI Q4 tomorrow after bell
Q4 report and guidance for the March qtr. I doubt that the stock keeps rallying much over $20, as I can't see them giving guidance of more than around $.15 for Q1. I mean AI stocks ie SMCI are carrying around a 25 PE going forward, but they are the premier companies with huge growth. I would say AAOI will only receive around a 20 PE going forward, unless growth is much better than expected. Given that even $1 is my expectations for 2024, around $20 is fair value. I sold already at $19.25 a couple months ago. However, if AAOI guides for more than $.15 for Q1, or talks of another large client ie MSFT, then the stock could take off again. I will watching closely tomorrow after the bell.
Updated portfolio
PRIM 3000 shares
GERN 40000
HALO 2949.76
Cash $569
Sell PRIM @ $38.70/Sell GERN @ $1.95/Buy HALO $38.22
Sell 1200 PRIM @ $38.70 = $46,440
Sell 34000 GERN @ $1.95 $66,300
Buy 2949.76 HALO @ $38.22= $112,740
R59- GERN
I haven't done well timing ups/downs on no news, so best for me not to try. Either way though, good call.
SMCI/NVDA- prediction by Thursday
SMCI and NVDA will both be around $600 by the end of Thursdays session- maybe even in the $500s
GERN- Highly frustrated on this one
I am in a conflict on GERN. Not because the stock isn't a great play here around $2, but because the stock is so highly manipulated. Haven't made any decisions at this point, but Wadegarret has almost quadrupled it's position.
GERN($2.02) looks like one of the best plays out there
This company has a great cancer drug, that has only one competitor. The Oncology Advisory Board will give there decision on March 14, and if a go, it's 97% to get FDA approval in June. I am betting a nice chunk of my Wadegarret portfolio on the announcement, and feel it's a great risk/reward at $2 today.