R59- GERN vs RLYP(a blast from the past)
Re, do you remember Relypsa(RLYP) from 2015/2016 ? They had a single drug Valtessa(for Hyperkalemia), they had only one major competitor with an FDA approved drug treating hyperkalemia, but RLYP's drug was better IMO. Lastly RLYP had diluted quite a bit to keep alive, and had only one-two quarters left of cash burn while awaiting FDA approval for Valtessa. Now lets look at GERN
They have a single drug Imetelstat to treat a Leukemia called MDS, they have only one major competitor with an FDA approved drug to treat MDS, GERNs drug is better IMO, and GERN has two quarters left of cash burn while waiting for FDA approval. Wow, now is that unreal ! RLYP and GERN are identical stories going into the FDA approval wait.
So I decided last night to go back and see how RLYP stock acted during the period before and after FDA approval, subsequent to a buyout that took place several months after FDA approval for Valtessa. Turned out that RLYP went down AFTER FDA approval to $10, only to creep back up to the mid teens soon after, and then got bought out a few months later at $32 ! Now I ended up selling all my shares around $17(about breakeven), thinking something had to be really wrong for RLYP to be acting like that. At the time, I remember articles and the Yahoo message board full of posters saying it was because they had only one quarter left of cash burn, and with no pharma partner, despite FDA approval- Wow, is all I have to say, as GERN is in the exact same boat RLYP was before the FDA announcement. However more importantly, this chart pointed out to me how manipulated a one tick pony biotech can be.
Re, GERN is in the exact same boat as RLYP was before the FDA announcement. However unlike RLYP, I don't plan to get scared out of GERN, should they get a thumbs up from the Oncology Advisory Board on March 14(97% of stocks that get a positive review from the committee go on to get FDA approval). However I can see how RLYP didn't really rally much until it finally got bought out Re, this gives me much insight into how one trick pony biotechs are treated all the way till a partner or buyout, and helps me understand better why GERN has acted the way it has, and may likely continue all the way till a partner or buyout, even if they get FDA approval
