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Updated portfolio
HALO 3000 shares
ELTK 15,000 shares
Cash $10629
Buy ELTK @ $10.65
Buy 4300 shares @ $10.65 = $45795
Hweb- ELTK
Not me
Updated portfolio
HALO 3000 shares
ELTK 10700 shares
Cash $56424
Buy HALO @ $42.34
Buy 1000 HALO @ $42.34 = $42,340
Updated portfolio
Cash $98,764
HALO 2000 shares
ELTK 10700 shares
Sell GERN @ $1.79
Sell 55000 GERN @ $1.79 = $98,450
ELTK- I find it crazy that this stock is continuing to sell off
Maybe KIK is right, and this huge(owns 59% of the stock) insider will keep selling ! It appears he sold over 2.5M shares in the last qtr of 2023, so maybe he'll sell the rest now- but what will he send the stock down to in doing so, and why is he so eager to sell ?
R59- GERN
Turns out this Dr Anthony Hunter, who is working with Novartis on a competitive drug to GERNs Imetelstat, is the ONLY Hematologist on the Advisory Committee ! Now who do you think the FDA got their info from when they posted yesterday ! This is a huge conflict of interest IMO, and it will come out tomorrow. Not saying it's illegal, as it's documented, but surely unethical.
Updated correction
Cash should be $314, not $404
R59- GERN, thanks for the info
Well that actually makes me feel better holding, I mean the word contested is better than a no go ! Still I believe the Advisory Committee could very well give an overall positive take on Imetelstat, being there is nothing else out there except Bristol Myers drug, which only treats 1/4 of the patients vs 100% for Imetelstat. The big question from my view is about risk vs reward. If Geron can demonstrate that the Cytopena side effect(the most concerning) is very managable, then that's the answer.
R59- GERN
Point is, if Anyone is on the Advisory Board working on a competing drug, they shouldn't be allowed to give any opinion ! In fact, they shouldn't be on the Committee for this meeting at all. Yes, I firmly believe this Doctor has a lot to do with this negative opinion we heard today. Fact is, GERNs drug had 40% respondents, and they are all entirely or more transfusion independent than before, which the results are at least as good as Bristol Myers drug Reblozyl. Yes there were cytopenia side effects, but they were well managed according to all the Hematologists I read reports on. I bought all shares back for both myself and Wadegarret about $.10 below where I sold them when I heard this news.
Updated portfolio
GERN 55000 shares
HALO 2000 shares
ELTK 10700 shares
Cash $404
R59- GERN
Re, how can you say there is no hanky panky, when Dr Anthony Hunter is on the Advisory Committee, and at the same time, working with Novartis on a competing drug to GERNs Imetelstat ? Sounds like huge conflict of interest to me ! That guy should not be allowed to chime in on Imtelstat at all
Oncology Advisory Board member is biased against GERN !
as he is invoved personally with a competing drug from Novartis
Just bought back all GERN- here's why
There is one MD on the Advisory Committee who is working on a competing drug to GERNs Imetelstat. I believe this one MD Anthony Hunter should not be allowed to vote, as he is involved with a competing drug. I also believe his opinion weighed in on the premature FDA announcement. I said there was hanky panky, and this is it IMO ! Here is the link...
https://www.fda.gov/media/176605/download
Buy GERN @ $1.73
Buy 55000 GERN @ $1.73 = $95,150
ELTK, Amazing that stock continues to fall, despite
already down 23% yesterday , and 53% over the last few weeks. Then add to that an offering at $16 for several hundred thousand shares only a few weeks ago ! All the while, in the CC it appears there is little change with their business, and growth is expected to continue, with 27%+ margins. I am stumped by all this. I mean, one would think the investors that bought all those shares at $16 had a better idea than we do about the companies prospects going forward ! Yet these investors are down 45% in just a few weeks !
R59- GERN, it's highly irregular for FDA comments
2 days before the Advisory Board Committee Meeting. I believe there was hanky panky. I mean the cytopenias, only concerning side effect, was not made a big deal by the hematologists covering the stock. I am very disappointed, and I sold all shares.
Sell GERN @ $1.83
Sell 52000 shares GERN @ $1.83 = $95,160
Updated portfolio
GERN 52000 shares
HALO 2000 shares
ELTK 10700 shares
Cash $304
Sell HALO @ $41.55/Buy GERN @ $1.90
Sell 1000 HALO @ $41.55 = $41,550
Buy 22000 GERN @ $1.90 = $41,800
R59- GERN
Unbelievably volatile now just two days before a huge meeting
R59- true, but I hope to build it back up !
Maybe by 2030 !
SS- ELTK
What do you expect the fully diluted share count to be in 2024 ? Also just wondering- did the company ever give guidance that margins would go to 30%, or is the 27% guided for today only the same margin forecast as in past quarters ?
R59- GERN
the stock action is plain unbelievable. I mean stock down 17% from day highs days before a most important annoucement ? I mean this stock sells off every rally now since the company was given a PDUFA date. Re, what do you make of Institutional ownership going through the roof, all the while the stock has gotten nearly cut in half, and keeps selling off every rally ? Is it possible someone that the Advisory board has gotten paid off by big Pharma to give a negative opinion on Imetelstat ? I mean I'm completely stumped, and now scared to hold much into the Thursday announcement.
Updated portfolio
GERN 30000 shares'
ELTK 10700 shares
HALO 3000 shares
Cash $554
Sell GERN @ $2.08/buy ELTK @ $10.65
Sell 20000 GERN @ $2.08 = $41600
Buy 3900 ELTK @ $10.65 = $41535
ELTK - I believe this is just a technical correction
I mean yes there's been insider selling for months, but as Hweb pointed out, the same insider was selling when the stock was higher.as well. While I realize the insider selling doesn't look good, I believe what we're seeing is a technical correction only, and that there's nothing underlying wrong with the company. I therefore strongly suggest buying the stock today in the $10s.
KIK- ELTK
Thanks for the heads up, but if the insider selling were such a huge concern, why did they get an offering done at $16 recently ? I mean were the Institutions buying not aware of this ? Then again, I do agree that the perpetual insider selling for this person gives little comfort, despite the solid company fundies.
ELTK- Selling pressure continues on 4x normal volume ?
I wonder who & more importantly, why. I mean I was on the CC, and it sounded very positive to me.
Hweb- ELTK, I joined you @ $10.77
Updated portfolio
GERN 50000
HALO 3000 shares
ELTK 6800 shares
Cash $489
Buy ELTK @ $10.77
Buy 6800 ELTK @ $10.77 = $73,236
R59- not generally a day trader
I will admit I'm in and out of stocks quickly, and quite often. However my goal when I buy a stock is always to hold to my target(fair value). When a stock is acting rational(going up after I buy), I will almost always hold to my target or near(ie AAOI & PRIM recently), however stocks have not been acting rational for some time now. Very recently, one I have held since I bought is HALO, as the stock has trended up since the strong earnings report. So how long I'm in a stock has a lot to do with how it's acting. Unfortunately I do miss out on some great winners ie SMCI by not being real patient, as I was in that one for 8 weeks a year ago, and finally got fed up around $75, just weeks before it flew to well over $100. However I would have likely sold SMCI at $100, and not participated in the huge upside rally, as I perpetually thought the stock was over valued on the way up, after it broke $100.
As far as stating many times, that I think we've been in a bear market rally since Oct 2022, I still hold to that. I give myself till July or August of this year to renege on that, as that will be about 24 months since the bond yield curve 2 and 10 year first inverted. The rule states that over the last 70 years, within 24 months of the date that the 2 and 10 year bond yield first becomes inverted, there will be a recession- and this rule has held accurate for the last 70 years, 100% of the time !. In addition to this, the consumer is surely weakening- just look at credit card debt levels and delinquency rates. Lastly, the S&P has had flat earnings for 10 straight qtrs, at the pace of around $220/year. I don't believe the analyst talk that the S&P will produce $250+ in 2024 will come to fruition.
However Re, no matter how I play the market, my returns have been strong for 20 years, even including the last 6, which I've shorted the indexes like crazy ! You suggested for me start a managed portfolio a few years ago, and 2 years ago I did, and the Wadegarret portfolio is up 177% as of Friday. I realize I made out huge in 2022 shorting the Nasdaq, but I also lost huge last year doing the same. Along the way, I fortunately have had some profits on the long side, or else I would have lost much more back. I think I was up around 225% at the height in 2022. Basically Re, I am a trader, and I may be short term, but I definitely don't attempt to make a living day trading. However the market has become awfully tough, and I have doubts about being able to keep up anywhere near the %s of the last 20 years going forward.
SS, I always have a target price for a stock
Right or wrong, I do the best dd I can to value a stock with the knowledge that I have. Of course my target price will change as the company grows. The hardest thing for me is to figure out the proper PE as a stock grows. For example SMCI had an 8 PE going forward when I played it a year ago, and now has nearly 40 PE going forward. Of course the growth is a huge factor. That's why I feel the PEG ration is much better valuation tool than just PE. I mean when I played it a year ago, SMCI had about a .70 PEG, and now it has a 1.10 PEG. Now another factor is the sector. For example software stocks have higher PEG ratios than hardware stocks. Now SMCI is a hardware stock, and personally I rarely would give a stock like that more than a 1 PEG ratio. Surprisingly SMCI would be targeted at about $1000 per share right now with the 35% eps growth expected in fiscal 2025, and a 39 PE going forward. However that target can change quickly, should the underlying growth slow for any reason(ie competition).
SS, for me, I generally sell a stock when it reaches my target or close to it. However, if I had a stock in which my target was $10 when the stock was $2, I would likely sell it at $8 or $9. I remember many stocks just like that. AAOI just recently for example. I had a $20 target ono the stock, and sold it at $19.25. The stock ended up going to $24 soon after, but is now $14. PRIM is another one. I had a $41 price target recently after buying at $33, and sold at $41.50.
Value- SMCI & NVDA
I just looked at Yahoo Finance analysis tab, which has 11 analysts chiming in. It appears the eps growth in fiscal 2025 is expected to be 35% over 2024, while revenues to come in with 36% growth. The PE based on next years estimates is 38 times. For NVDA it is expected to have 22% growth in eps, and 22% growth in revenues. The PE based on next years eps estimates for NVDA is 29 times. So the PEG ratio on SMCI is about 1.1, and NVDA is about 1.3.
Value I find PEG ratio's very important, but also very important is the growth trend going forward, and the sector they're in. For example, every blue chip medical device stock ie Medtronic & Stryker are selling for a little over a 2 PEG ratio( 26 PE going forward, with 12% eps growth expected). As far as growth going forward, the PEG ratio generally gets higher as growth slows. This is quite evident with NVDA, which just earlier in the year, had a PEG ratio of .5, and now 1.3, as growth going forward has slowed.
In addition to all that I mentioned, even within broad sector ie tech, are sub sectors ie software, hardware, etc. Turns out that the software stocks always have higher PEs and higher PEG ratios than hardware stocks. SMCI and NVDA are hardware stocks, and it is precisely right now that one has to be careful, as growth is slowing, at least for NVDA. SMCI is a tougher one to value than NVDA for me, but still I would be very careful about giving SMCI more than a 1 PEG ratio, as there will inevitably be competition that will slow growth.
IMO right now, I would give NVDA a price target of $650-$700, and SMCI $1000-$1050.
If GERN comes in Thursday with good news,
Wadegarret portfolio might go to an all time high. GERN is a stock I've had for over a year, and overall I'm down a good bit. However with a good report from the Oncology Advisory Committee, that could change fast.
R59- GERN
Re, is there a price you would sell your shares at before the meeting on Thursday ? I mean, what if the stock goes to $2.75 by Wednesday ?