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Yes and maybe even more promising was that we had more significant volume today.
This recent dip strongly appears to me like a seller not too concerned about the price he is getting, probably because he has *sick* profits underneath his belt.
I mentioned NHTC here a few weeks ago - said it was a classic swing trade, market had delayed reaction to earnings release. Now I think it is going on momentum beyond adjustment to earnings.
Good to hear from you Swick.
The year ago quarter was actually inflated by 4.4 cents per share due to realized and mostly unrealized currency gains ($757,000 worth).
Gross margin dropped to ~32% from ~46% due to recognition of prospective (future) volume rebate payable. If I remember correctly, Q2 had a 60% gross margin.. So this rebate seems to be unevenly affecting gross margin. Maybe this is due to lumpy ordering patterns of big customer. Or to a swaying mix of customers quarter to quarter. Or any number of reasons.
I would like to get a better handle on how this rebate will effect results going forward, as well as how protracted mining downturn's effect on AYSI will be -- I really thought AYSI would glide through the whole thing since they had continued putting out great results long after competitors began taking hits. I do wonder if there is more anomaly in today's results than the language in the release portrays.
I hadn't noticed the large tax rate.
Even in this disappointing quarter, AYSI grew book value at a 15% annualized rate (3.6% for the quarter) due to earnings + effects of strong AUD on balance sheet ("other comprehensive income" not included on Income Statement).
Book value is now $1.42/share.
If company continues to get hit by downturn, can it at least find a way to earn more money throughout down times?
Foreign exchange (hedges?) alone caused a 5 cent EPS difference between this Q and the year-ago Q.
In other words, congrats to those who bought under $1.30 today -- I think people will be less scared by this as they digest it. AYSI can wait out a downturn for years (hope it won't have to!). Cash stash back up ($6M). BOOK VALUE CONTINUING TO GROW. STILL PROFITABLE and more than it looks due to exchange rates.
This is the only lead I have on Canadian alerts:
http://www.barelkarsan.com/2013/02/filings-notification-canada-and-us.html
I haven't tried it out yet.
Do you know a good one for Canadian/SEDAR filings?
No I'm not paying anything. I think you've got to give them your phone number -- that's the extent of it.
I'm not aware of any limits on the number of companies you can get alerts on. I have 18.. and no I haven't noticed any malfunctions/misses.
I've been using SECfilings.com for a couple months and I have no complaints. I have my email rigged to forward messages from SECfilings.com to my cell phone as a text message. Usually within 2 minutes of a company filing, my pocket vibrates
If you haven't already, you should read Whopper's 10-K write-up, which touches more on the subtleties in the results.
Diversification away from MillerCoors continues, with Sales essentially flat on the year, but sales to non-MillerCoors +27% according to Whopper.
If I didn't already own more than I should've in the first place, I would have been buying anywhere in the 40s today.
GLGI - I have a thought: this is a great buying opportunity.
Well now we know 2013 Q3 EPS was 14.8 cents.
So 2013 Q4 was roughly 4.8 cents.
..
In Q4 2012 (only 7 quarters ago), AYSI earned 1.7 cents, worse than today's results.
I got out last week at $14.25
OK - now I looked at the release dates for reports on OTCMarkets:
Like luv2run said, Q1 came out September 9. And the Annual Report came out August 14 last year. So that's only a 26 day gap.
By the same standard, we would see this year's Q1 on September 20 (although for all I know it could come out September 9 again, or this week for that matter; Q1 ended two months ago already).
Anyway, the interesting question is: what will happen to this stock if they report another quarter anything like Q4 19 days from now? At that point, I am pretty sure the market could no longer ignore it.
I'm not saying this is the next Walt Disney Company, but only that there are reasons to believe that we could see rapid and significant price appreciation. At least, that is the bet I placed last week -- however risky BSEG may be, I think things will get better before they get worse. And if they actually do end up making real money in China, then things may never get worse again.
Do we have any idea when Q1 will be out?
Was that not Jimmy Jiang himself signing them?
BTW this is some serious due diligence!
I think it is tough at this point for them to put out an earnings PR, a week after the fact. Was there no PR at all surrounding the annual report? Company seems good at touting its operations but not its financial results.
Aug 29 would be 90 days by my calculation (tomorrow).
I meant market-cap.. was wondering what impact/if any a few minutes on Bloomberg could have. It's bigger than I thought, but like you said it has received little/no media coverage.
Thanks for the primer, value.
REX was profiled (specially) on Bloomberg radio after the bell today, in the Winners and Losers segment of Taking Stock. Dave Wilson(?) gave the rave report, noting few shares outstanding, past buybacks, etc. and of course the earnings. Don't know how big this company is but maybe there will be new eyes on it tomorrow.
WTF is this sell-off? I assume it is old shareholders giving their shares to us new guys. Or people who got in yesterday second-guessing themselves.
The sea is a-churning!
A company that just earned 1/3 of it's market cap in 90 days and is selling for about 2/3 of book?? Count me in LOL
I hope they just go wherever the money is, China, car commercials, B movies in Walmart, whatever.
I am typically very cautious before buying and really need to look at all the nooks and crannies, yes even when buying something for 3X the last quarter's earnings.
75% of today's volume in BSEG has been me buying.
Haha now you're attacking every stock of mine.
Get your retribution, I guess, for perceived slights.
A lot of people think AYSI is dangerous. I am willing to go into places that most people think are dangerous. AYSI is a wonderful company, in Buffett's sense. Its numbers show this. The fact that mining has downturned but AYSI has not shows a special competitive advantage.
I agree that the CEO situation at GLGI is somewhat worrisome, but it's cheap, and the same CEO is a good operator.
PDEX is close to book and I view it as high probability to successfully turnaround. The recent small acquisition in Northern California is a canary in the coal mine (in a positive sense).
I didn't say BSEG was overvalued, but I guess you heard it that way. Maybe I will come back here tomorrow and tell you I bought it.
Since you asked about my ideas: I was buying MUEL and adding to my AYSI position today. I have also bought PDEX recently.
No, I haven't played any of your stocks before. I've only been reading you for a short time.
Again, I'm not bashing you. I'm probing the stock's prospects precisely because I think it may be worth something. I know you have a good history of picking stocks, which is why I pay attention to what you write.
Thanks for the reply. I agree this is an interesting situation, or else I wouldn't be looking at it!
I will just list some of the things sticking in my mind..
1. None of the company's financials are audited, not even the annual report.
2. FWIW, yesterday's annual report lists (as of Aug 25, 2014):
103,316,636 Class A Common Stock
25,000,000 Class B Common Stock
0 Class A Preferred Stock
So I guess we use 103M for the O/S count until we find out what those B shares are; you are right, the company itself excludes them from per share numbers, etc.
3. I thought this was an interesting line from the recent report:
otc, I'm not trying to bash you in any way shape or form :) I am doing my DD here because it is an intriguing opportunity. Sorry if I came across that way; I should've made that more clear.
(Don't worry though, I've got more pain in the ass on the way! I'm writing another post with all of my misgivings about this stock, just to air it all out there. Feel free to ignore, but the purpose of this board is discussion, DD, etc., right? Sorry I am just trying to size this thing up exactly in case it jumps I want to know what I am willing to pay/not pay.)
otc, do you know anything about the B shares? 25 million outstanding. Not included in your EPS calc?
BSEG has a lot going on for a company with 4 full-time and 4 part-time employees. It must have two or three times as many "departments" as employees. It's also a little hard to imagine the CEO being a big, savvy wheeler and dealer if you look at current pictures of her. She looks like (is?) a 50-something B or C list celebrity who is more into fashion designers and plastic surgery than negotiating with foreign (or domestic) businessmen.
I added to my position today at $1.77. I am deeply optimistic about the company's mid to long-term future. What will earnings be like this quarter? I don't know. Just a guess: 2-3 cents less than last year.
AYSI is really good at what they do -- how else can you explain their results and margins? There is now legit reason to factor buyout potential into price (some realistic probability). They have the new 4-foot plates (years in the making) just coming out. I could tell that the company itself views the 4-foot plates as very exciting. (Why? Beats me - I'm not a mining equipment expert.)
And yes even after a 100% run-up over the past few months, AYSI is trading for only 5.5X earnings.
Indonesia, BUYOUT POTENTIAL, cheap as hell P/E ratio, terrific and steady book value growth, price currently still close to book, new technology, I'm sure I'm forgetting a couple things...
Today I affirmed my belief that I can achieve outstanding returns by buying AYSI at $1.77, more than twice what I paid only a few months ago. I believe the company is still too cheap.
I wonder what kind of earnings the market needs to see in order for the stock not to drop.
Remember we are now in Tough Comparison Land.
ALJJ share buyback - as far as I can tell, the company put out no specifics on the buyback: amount of money that could be spent, time period, etc.
I also think Whopper's point about making use of tax assets rather than buying back shares is relevant.
Hopefully the company will do some wise calculations and spend their cash in the best returning way. But I agree its good to have the option all ready to buy back shares.
ATRM put out their first 10-Q with the new acquisition's results.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=63311302
It is hard to parse through this. You've got discontinued operations, one-time expenses, new ops, pro-forma, etc., etc.
Best I can tell (so far), continuing ops (the new acq (KBS Building Systems)) lost $800K in the quarter on a normalized pre-tax basis, after eliminating $700K of one-time acquisition-related expenses.