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LTT, you and I agree that the main issue for the stock is the success or failure of the DCVax-L phase III trial. We apparently disagree on the ultimate outcome as I believe the trial will be successful and lead to an FDA approval. So consider this: We are not likely to get a final verdict on the trial itself 8 to 12 months. Do you see any negative catalysts coming in that time? My current net cost basis in NWbio is about $5.25. I am 100% long and am not using margin. I don't have to pay any interest to stay long. What interest rate are you paying to stay short? How long can you afford to pay that if the stock just stays roughly flat? I might buy some puts if I thought the stock was getting ahead of itself, but I don't have the stomach to short it. I like to be able to sleep at night. If you haven't noticed, this stock reacts violently to the upside on almost any PR, and they tend to come completely without warning. Sweet Dreams!
I'm so bullish on NWBO long term that it's really hard for me not to bet the farm on it. But almost every time I've violated my investing discipline of saying diversified and not over extending any single position I've regretted it. I'm glad I'm not the only one out there buying but I can't let myself get carried away with my own enthusiasm. I'm glad you're so bullish on the company as well, but I do hope you stay smart with you're total portfolio allocation.
I partially agree with you. The main issue for the stock is a approval of DCVax-L, and I don't think the market is pricing in any German sales at the moment. However, I don't agree that the stock goes nowhere until there is an approval. I think the stock's average price will drift higher as we approach the conclusion of the phase III trial and as more and more investors gain confidence. Any revenue from Germany will only serve it increase investor confidence. There will be news items that drive the stock to irrational highs and sell offs that take the stock to irrational lows in the mean time. But I have a high degree of confidence that the overall trajectory will be higher unless there is tangible evidence that DCVax is not performing up to its expectations in the Trial. Approval will be the lift off moment for the stock, but I firmly believe that we will get the approval news at a stock price substantially higher than today's. Just my opinion.
I'm certain we are going to have upside earning surprises over the coming quarters as a result of sales in Germany. That's why I think the stock is cheap. I have no idea what the magnitude of those surprises will be, but right now the market is pricing the stock as if there will be no revenue. The market is wrong. So I have a clear buying opportunity. As a bonus, there are many other catalyst for the stock on the horizon this year. It's easy for me to buy with confidence at these levels.
No panic from me. I bought another 1000 shares this morning. The stock looks ridiculously cheap IMO.
My guess is that someone is expecting a nice bounce from options expiration. Not a bad guess with around 6000 calls in the green and the extremely limited float of the stock. I doubt it can go to $10 on that bounce, but you never know.
sbnyc, All of those things are potential catalysts to drive the stock price higher in the future and are part of my rational for believing that the stock can go well above $15 over the next year. But they are just potential catalysts right now. I simply can't price those things in today. My investment process is always a work in progress until I am completely sold out of a position. I judge news items as they happen. I know ASCO for instance could have a material impact on the stock price IF NWbio's abstract is accepted. There is as yet no guarantee that will happen. If it does then it is likely to attract more interest in the stock and I may need to revise my own projections upward as I judge how the stock reacts in the wake of the news. But I try to keep my expectations today based on the facts available today. So today, I cannot expect a $100 Billion market cap. Especially over the next year. New news could change that assessment in the future. As always this is just my opinion and I welcome everyone to form their own.
Staccani, I hope you're right. With that $100Billion market cap my personal investment to date would be worth north of $40 million. While I do believe that NWbio is undervalued at current levels, I prefer to try and understand why it is undervalued instead of trying to figure out how much it is undervalued. That allows me to make much better near term decisions even though I am long term bullish on the stock. A perfect example is why the stock is hovering around $8.00.
IMO that is because the market as a whole has priced an increased probability of a successful trial for DCVax, but remains unconvinced that success is a foregone conclusion. In addition they are pricing in a decreased dilution risk based on NWbio getting some revenue from Germany. The market has also priced in the Oppenheimer downgrade from outperform to market perform. My personal opinion on NWbio remains unchanged and diverges from what appears to be priced in at the moment.
I believe that the current drug trial will be successful, DCVax-L will be approved both in the US and Europe, and will successfully be brought to market. Additionally, I believe that NWbio will have years of work ahead of it in expanding the range of cancers that can be treated with its technology. I also believe that it will be very difficult for NWbio to remain independent for long after DCVax-L makes it to market (although I hope it can). But that does not mean I am willing to dump every penny I have into the stick at any price under a given figure.
Instead I can watch the stock and look for opportunities to acquire more if I choose to with a near term (over a week or until the next bit of news) trading range expectation of $7.75 to $8.25. I happen to expect longer term (over the next year) a stock price north of $15 easily, but why would I want to over-pay toady for that possibility in a year? FYI, I did buy another 1,000 shares last Friday at $7.61 because I thought that was the best deal I was likely to get in the near term.
As an investor I have found that a rational evaluation of the facts available today is always a better money making proposition than an overly optimistic view of a nebulous future possibility.
Oh I agree that NWBio is going to get some substantial cash flow from the German hospital exemption. My point is only that the market is not going to bake that into the stock price until there is a way for some very conservative money managers and market analyst to figure out with a reasonable degree of confidence what the size of that cash flow will be in the future. They can't just assume the price per patient will be X and that Y patients will be treated every year. They need objective evidence to point to. We don't have that yet.
staccani, I think you may be reading too much into the German decision. While it is an important validation of the DCVax technology, it is not an approval to market any products. In a nutshell, German patients will have access to DCVax but they and/or their doctors will have to ask for it. NWbio will not be able to actively market DCVax. I expect that NWbio will start getting some cash flow soon(tm) as a result, but the magnitude of that cash flow is largely unknown. As far as I know, the pricing for DCVax is still to be determined. I think the market is reacting appropriately at this point. The boost in stock value is as a result of the nod of confidence given to DCVax by the Germans, but the real make or break issue for NWbio is still the Phase III trial of DCVax-L. This is still up in the air, but it's looking good. Should there be any substantial use of DCVax in Germany under the hospital exemption, I don't expect the market to react until it starts showing up in the quarterly reports. JMO.
There is no such thing as a risk free investment. I'm bullish on the stock and think it is significantly undervalued, but I would never claim that it is risk free at any price.
If someone purchased $1000 worth of NWBO stock on the close each day AF released an article about them over the last year, what would that position be worth today? Just food for thought.
Some notes on today’s discussions:
There has been a lot of back and forth today on these topics and I want to take a moment to give my opinion where I have one.
On the AF article and NWbio’s response – AF’s article was all misinformation and speculation. This is par for the course for him and we should expect nothing better. The one “fact” he presented was that there was a long delay between the granting of the German hospital exemption and the announcement of the same from NWbio. I think it was appropriate for NWBio to issue a response explaining that delay. I do not favor them getting into a back and forth with Adam on a regular basis, but one release exposing the fallacy of his argument was appropriate in this case. I am quite happy with NWBio both on the PR front, and in their overall support of and responsiveness to their shareholders.
On any potential lawsuit or SEC action – I don’t feel it would be a good use of NWBio’s capital to attempt to sue AF unless there is very clear evidence of wrongdoing on his part. I have seen nothing illegal about his articles to this point. They are obviously biased and poorly researched, but publicly being a moron is not illegal. I am going to contact the editor in chief at TheStreet and complain about the quality of Adam’s writing, not the content. There are some good writers at TheStreet and I don’t feel that Adam is up to the standards that they should expect from their columnists.
I have seen evidence in the stock activity that leads me to believe that the stock may be being manipulated. I have seen this on both sides actually. I plan to mention this to the SEC, but in reality I doubt they will even look into it.
On the stock price itself – Nothing has changed my view on the stock. I think it was undervalued yesterday, I think it is even more undervalued today. I plan to wait a few days to let the smoke clear from the latest article and the downgrade then I will look to buy more. I did purchase 3k more shares Monday at $8.15. Even with that purchase, my cost basis is still around $5.00. I do not believe in trying to pick tops and bottoms for short term trades. I make money in the market by buying undervalued stocks and selling overvalued stock. Until something leads me to believe NWBO is overvalued I will not be selling. I do engage in some options trading to capture short term volatility, but even my options are all firmly in the black here and I am currently planning to convert them to stock as they expire.
But all of this is just my opinion and I could be wrong.
Survey reply: E would have the longest lasting impact as it would be taken most seriously by big money. All of the others could have a larger, but transitory impact. Just My opinion.
Another hack job from a hack writer. I wonder how long it's going to be before Jim makes Adam wear a posted note with NWBO printed on it around the office for day?
FYI
02:16 PM EDT, 03/11/2014 (MT Newswires) -- Northwest Biotherapeutics(NWBO) jumped 21% after Summer Streets raised its price target on the shares to $15.10 from $10.33 and reiterated its Buy rating.
The development stage biotechnology company said Monday it had received permission in Germany to make its brain cancer drug, DCVax-L, available for treatment and sale there.
In afternoon trade, NWBO gained 21.39% to $9.53. Earlier in the session, the shares notched a 52-week high of $10.64
Price: 9.53, Change: +1.68, Percent Change: +21.39
Depends on the time you plan to hold it. If you're wanting to flip a stock for a quick buck I'd stay away here because the near term volatility will probably just shake you out at a bad time. If you are willing to hold it for a year or two, then I think the stock is still very undervalued. Whatever your case, I wouldn't put i dime into until you personally have researched the company enough to make your own judgment about its long term value.
This hit my news-wire this morning.
COVERAGE REITERATED: Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO) reiterated by Summer Street Research. Reiterated rating Buy.
BRIEFING.COM 8:05 AM ET 3/11/2014
I'm going to go have dinner at a local German restaurant tonight to celebrate this news. I think I'll take a taxi. :)
Anyone have any idea what the current production capacity is in Germany?
I don't care if we get another bear raid. Today's news has moved NWBO from a speculative play in my portfolio to a DEEPLY undervalued stock. They knock it down, I'll buy more.
If you think things look good now, wait till we get to options expiration on the 21st. :)
I finally read the full PR from NWbio, welcome to the promised land! I am thrilled not only for my own portfolio, but for all the lives that may be impacted. This is a truly historic day for NWbio, and for cancer research. I am very proud that I am a small part of it through my ownership of NWBO.
Wow, I picked the wrong day to sleep in! Can you say short squeeze?
Staccani, here is a link to the clinical trials page for the study:
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00045968?term=DCVax&rank=1
Staccani, just FYI and "event" in this trial is defined as death or tumor recurrence. One of the reasons GBM is such a scary cancer is that even with surgery, radiation, and chemo tumors almost always come back.
No one asked me, but I'm going to chime in anyway. I prefer to take today's announcement at face value. Here are my conclusions:
1. The trial is continuing. This is good and I am happy
2. NWBO responds to shareholder inquiries. This to is good and I am happy. (actually they are far MORE responsive than most companies IMO)
3. The review of the efficacy data is still pending. This to is good and I am happy. It would have been nice to have seen a comment on efficacy, but I'd rather get the announcement we did than no announcement at all. The only thing I can read into the fact that the efficacy data is still pending is that for some unspecified reason they need more time to work on it.
Over the last week I've felt like the rain man obsessing over what number is going to come up on a roulette wheel. Now I feel like I have enough clarity to proceed with my investment plan for this company with confidence as I await (much more calmly) more data. Now I'm going back to watching re-runs of "The Peoples Court" with Judge Wapner.
Hears' my take:
"What's likely going on here?" - They need more time to make sure they have all their ducks in a row regarding efficacy before they make their recommendation on that point. I expect at least a continue here as well or they would not have been comfortable enough to make today's announcement.
"Northwest Bio still hasn't told investors if the DCVax study is fully enrolled" - It's probably not fully enrolled at this point. GBM is a rare cancer and finding patients that are both qualified for and willing to participate in the study is not an easy task. While I don't worry too much about the enrollment numbers at this point I do wish the company would give some guidance as to how enrollment is going.
"nor has the company explained how or why FDA will be copacetic with a primary endpoint of progression-free survival" - I've done a bit of digging on this. Based on my own research it looks like the FDA is warming to using PFS as a basis for approval, especially in conjunction with OS as is designed in this trial. This appears to be most likely in cases where the condition being treated is especially deadly and existing treatment options are most limited. In addition recent publications in medical journals on this point indicate to me the there is growing support in the scientific community for broader acceptance of PFS. I'm sorry that I have no one black and white proof that it will be acceptable, but the sum of what I've found leads me to strongly believe it will be.
As far as I can tell, my original thesis for investing in NWBO is not only intact, but confirmed. I am adding on weakness and doing so happily. In 18 months I will look back at this sell off and laugh.
Ladies and gentlemen, I believe we have a tiger by the tail. I expect a bumpy ride, but I cannot find a way to view this news as anything but positive. I don't think there is any way they would have gotten a continue at all if they were not seeing anything positive on the efficacy side.
IMO, "In response to shareholder inquiries" means enough of us had called and/or e-mailed them that they picked up the phone, called the DMC, and said "Look we know you are not done yet, but what CAN you tell us?". I'm thrilled with the news at this point and consider any further news just gravy. A continue means I can convert some calls I have to stock and increase my core position!
Last October Gilead halted a phase III trail for efficacy based on their DMC recommendation. Here is the PR: http://www.gilead.com/news/press-releases/2013/10/gilead-to-stop-phase-3-study-116-of-idelalisib-in-chronic-lymphocytic-leukemia-early-because-of-positive-riskbenefit
Granted that this study was regarding a new use for a drug with a pending NDA, however there are a couple of things I would like to point out:
First the order of events implied in the release was that the DMC recommended a halt, and then Gilead began consultations with the FDA.
The second thing is that if you look at the clinical trial info here: http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/study/NCT01539512?term=Idelalisib&rank=10
You will notice that PFS was the primary metric on this trial. I hope you all find this tidbit as interesting as I did.
It looks like the alternative uptick rule will be in effect tomorrow. We triggered it about 10:40 this morning.
I think it's just people getting nervous about the DMC decision. We had a huge run up on anticipation of the news and the fact that it has not materialized yet is shaking out those that were counting on booking their profits by now. Add to that short sellers that think they smell blood in the water and this decline makes sense. I wish I could say I could call the bottom hear, but I can't. However, I think the pressure will be mounting on NWBO to say something because we are getting into territory that will bring any warrant conversion that was going on to a grinding halt. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Just FYI, we seem to have a strong bid just under the 20 day moving average of $5.96.
Added some calls. I'm either going to be really right or really wrong, but it gets the adrenaline pumping. I have to look at a move like this as an opportunity in the absence of any news.
Not a market moving upgrade, but I though I'd pass it on:
http://investorplace.com/2014/03/7-biotechnology-stocks-to-buy-now-nwbo-pcyc-acor/#.UxdkRMKYaoY
If typo's bother you that much you'd better put me on your ignore list because I make a lot of them. That's something else I'm ok with. :)
Pyrr, I believe in this company, I believe in it's management, and I believe in the products they are developing. However I understand and accept that this is a very risky investment, so I am not investing any more than I can afford to loose. However, even if loose everything I have invested in this company there is one thing that I can't loose. That's the knowledge that my investment has supported what I believe is important research that will benefit humanity regardless of what happens to NWBO. I'm more than ok with that. :)
Never mind, I need more coffee and I need to learn how to read a clock. The markets opened. *facepalm*