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By opposite direction, I mean compared to its peer group it's not benefiting as much from oil price increases and is hit a lot harder when oil price drops - market confidence seems to be lost.
At this point, I think an accretive sale would be optimal. The stock seems to be moving (at times) opposite direction to oil price - the market has lost faith. Once that happens, it's basically over except for a miracle like $85 plus oil price now.
Yeah, I am not much of a Ferrari guy either, just an example. For me it's more free time....
Why do people get conned?
Everyone wants to believe in a dream.
Huge potential, exciting opportunity, drive that Ferrari, ...
It may start out with good intentions, but when it starts looking like you can't recover then it's every man for themselves.
I can't believe people are still buying this stock.
Not good, oil price increasing stock dropping. Nasdaq Delisting concern. If delisted (low market capitalization) then $0.05 per share OTC exchange pink sheets is a greater possibility.
I actually have a better investment - for every dollar you send me, I will send back $0.80. Hey $0.80 is better than nothing!
Just joking, hopefully Daybreak (Sunset) is acquired by a well capitalized company. These OTC (over the trash can) stinkies are tough on the wallet.
Yep, I have seen this play out many times. Management in these OTC stocks do not have the incentive to increase the stock price - most don't care. I have been inside these companies, so I know first hand. I was told by a CEO, I don't care about the share price. When profits increase, so do salaries, bonuses, stock options, etc. it's their ATM.
The only way the commons win is if the company is acquired. That is the ultimate exit strategy for management IF all the stars align, but before that they just milk the cash flow until the cow is dry. Most end in failure, but they received great salaries and perks all funded by the commons. After failure, they just start new companies. A legal Ponzi scheme.
The minority shareholders can file a class action lawsuit based on breach of fiduciary duty to look after the shareholders interest. Need to make sure the compensation board members are truly objective and accountable to shareholders.
Sad but true.
Interview with CEO.
http://www.twst.com/interview/30775
If anyone can view this please copy/paste as a post.
Thanks
Exhibit a why trying to time the market is not advisable - who can predict these types of cyber events - long term the stock is a good bet all else is anyone's guess.
Trying to time the market can be hazardous to your wealth. It's like trying to predict when a slot machine will pay.
I should have said:
Best Case Scenario - huge risk small return.
In my experience, one of the biggest problems with these small companies is they typically don't have a real unbiased compensation audit committee - they're overseeing themselves. In good times, they take most of the profits, and in bad times they're like vultures picking at the dying caucus - rarely does the shareholder win in any scenario. Many of the dealings involve kickbacks, etc.. - I'll take the high interest rate for a job when this thing tanks. The stuckholder is just left out in the cold... It starts with good intentions, but when reality sets in the screw the stockholder scenario (without real over sight) is just too lucrative. It can be an expensive lesson to learn.
Conclusion - huge risk small return. Solution - boring ETFs with an equity/bond split that is rebalanced yearly.
Really good earnings report.
$668.1K * 4 = $2,672K per year
times 8 (typical valuation multiple) is $21,378k
Divided by 17MM shares is ~$1.25/share
It's selling at a pretty big discount.
With commission selling for ~$0.35 per share - not too bright!
I wonder who is dumb enough to sell 38 shares at 0.56/share and pay $7.95 plus in commission?
Hopefully all of you day trading trying to pick a top/bottom are in today.
Yeah, I agree since actual future profitability is uncertain.
As long as tesla delivers more than promised quarterly life should be good.
Yeah, they are delineating the reservoir with wide spacing - in fill wells later if successful. I have drilled and fractured many wells. The fracture creates the permeability, so no worry. The main thing is thickness and oil saturation.
I have done little to no work evaluating this just reading the comments. Busy drilling my own wells.
Rough guess 150,000 barrels per well EUR with 500 ft spacing between producers.
They may be better off selling to a big oil company. It will take a lot of capital and time to develop.
All the market cares about is future profitability. Remember value is determined based on discounted future cash flow.
Permeability can be estimated using Darcy's law. You need to solve for K and use the flowing rate.
http://wiki.aapg.org/Fluid_flow_fundamentals
What is the net sand thickness and Length?
Interesting, is it a horizontal well? How many stages in the Frac? If it's not flowing, what is the static fluid level? Easy to test...
How many step out locations are possible? The API gravity is great, premium for better oil. How much did it cost to drill? Frac? Economic IRR? Is this the first one? How many more are planned this year?
Who knows, we may have an oil field. Need to stay on top of management to ensure transparency.
I think trying to time this stock is a big mistake. Long-term cyber security is huge.
Trying to pick bottoms and tops is impossible, and over the long-term not a value adding activity.
Really good revenue growth of 30 percent. ~$62 million sales times 3 (peer group) is $186 million value whereas it's current market value is ~$10.5 million - huge difference.
This seems to be the Ecommerce model - grow revenue as fast as possible then focus on earnings.
I am pleased with the continued revenue growth and the infrastructure investments.
Musk doesn't relate to the common person. What is exciting for him is scary for the general public - driverless cars, etc.
He needs a speech filter!
Yeah, I think short-term oil price is anyone's guess. It's not following the underlying supply/demand fundamentals anymore. If it was, it would be much lower. Oil traders are looking for a reason to be bullish - dropping rig count, etc... As a former oil trader, I have never seen it like this before.
Longer-term (1-2 years) I am bullish, but short-term it's being moved by emotion - not easy to predict using quantitative models. My guess is the rig count will dramatically drop over the next 3-6 months.
It doesn't matter. I am not sure why anyone cares if Mav is/was buying/selling. The only thing that matters is value.
What is it worth given some reasonable assumptions?
The big question is what is the likelihood they can survive this low oil price environment? Will their Line of credit be renewed? Given the inventory levels, it looks this low price will be around for awhile.
I don't have enough information to answer any of these questions - I own very little shares of the stock.
Ladies and gentlemen, Mav has left the building.
Intrinsic Value $1.50/share (conservative)
10% probability
Middle Value $1.08
80% probability ($1.5+$0.65)/2
Bankrupt $0
10% probability (I used a really conservative high number since JGPK's Z score places this at close to zero)
Edge or expected value = $0.36
Odds or Possible gain = $0.43
Recommended election is 85% or conservative 1/2 is 42% of your portfolio.
Pretty high allocation numbers. The Kelly investment formula optimizes your capital growth rate. It is used by Bill Gross and other famous investors. Like most models, there are assumptions so.... it's only as good as your inputs.
Example for Apple:
http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/investing-strategy/kelly-criterion-investing-portfolio-sizing/
I think these models (along with common sense) provide a good logical framework for investing.
Yeah, disappointing but it pays a huge dividend. I wonder if the management team should be replaced.
I am holding...
I am really enjoying the great JGPK bargains!! No matter how I look at the business, it's worth many multiples of its current price.
For all investors that need money now, please sell!!
I am reading a book that compares portfolio theory to the Kelly criteria of investing. The key issue is what is the best way to optimally allocate capital. I am more in the Kelly camp.
The biggest issue of this generation is cyber security.
Great fund!
Interesting, thanks.
I bought CVRR once it broke its 50/200 day moving average. It's intrinsic value is much higher than price. I also maintain a 10% (peak) trailing sale sell point.
Oil stocks long-term, I like BCEI, Carizzo, Continental, CRC, EOG, GPORT, CVRR (12% dividend).
All these stocks have a lot of potential with higher oil price. You will need to be able to withstand a lot of volatility. If you can't, no point in buying any of these.
I like ETF XLE. I did own a bunch of energy stocks, but just owning the index is a lot less work/risk. I own a lot of stock in the company I work for so...
I was short oil price for awhile, made some money and liquidated most of the position when the market got disconnected from the fundamentals.
Right now the short-term price (up) is disconnected from the fundamental supply/demand. This is why:
http://m.fool.com/investing/general/2015/02/09/how-low-oil-prices-today-could-lead-to-a-big-futur
My guess is a year from now ( maybe sooner) oil price will be $70 plus per barrel.
What is that sound?
Hmmm... Everyone trying to get out the door at the same time.
Great, all the founders retired - others are running the business. Two of the founders just raised ~$500 million and are looking for fire-sale oil and gas properties. Once they do, if I like their purchases, I'll invest but have no interest in doing it again.
It became a $2 billion oil and gas company (peak) and started with a few very clueless guys with big dreams.
SPDC's financial don't look good. Also, Speed is involved in expensive litigation. In comparison, JGPK is a financially strong business growing at a high rate.