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Thank you very much for your summary. No disclaimer necessary on a message board, I appreciate the effort you put in to your response.
So as far as I am aware Abattis has not issued a new "game plan" in the last quarter. As far as what is known publicly, I guess they're still mostly about getting an MMPR in Canada and operating Phytalabs in Washington? Is there anything else significant?
I have averted my eyes for the last 10 weeks and...
Would someone on the board be so kind as to give me a rough summary of what has been going in the world of ATT and the share price?
No one owes me the favor of a summary, but sometimes it can be helpful for anyone to sit and see the entire recent details spilled out in one place. If no one steps up to do it I will have a whole lot of reading and writing to do for all of you!
I received the voters card but didn't find much info of value in with it. I trade C.ATT on Questrade, but my friend who trades on QTrade didn't receive a vote. Is it possible it was based on share quantity?
Is all 12M tradeable come Monday, or is only the first 6M tradeable and the following 6M tradeable as of whatever day the option was taken?
As for what Bensondog had to say about Abattis running out of money I'm fairly certain the opposite is true. They recently cancelled a private placement valued rather significantly above their current valuation because they currently have more money on their sheet than they can resonably figure out what to do with. This is likely because they are sititng on money ready to go into action the moment they get their license.
That license, btw, despite what some seem to believe, is actually a big deal to their business model. According to Mike (in that last webcast interview) profitability currently hinges on their grow license and 300 patients. The controlled substabce license for extracts is in the short term not worth much (long-term potentially huge), and as he put it, the testing lab will be a revenue source, but not a particularly significant one. It will, again, be short-term not much but long-term fantastic for testing extract / pill purposes.
It's a crying shame investors have been this impatient. Look back 8 short weeks ago (short weeks. pun, get it?) and our SP was fantastic. Determined longs on this board would remind you that Abattis is as good as ever, and this is likely true, but the climate has changed significantly and it's no surprise to see previous longs seriously doubting their position.
Let's just hope Mike is right about the grow license coming up shortly. Once we get that we'll all be back in the green.
Fair analysis, I agree
What you're describing sounds to me like Options. Options run in parallel to the shares and is like betting on whether you think the SP will go up or down...
I have nothing against the people who are shorting, but I too agree that shorting with "borrowed" shares should be banned from the markets or in some way limited in volume. The way I see the difference is options are betting on a game you're watching, shorting is betting on the game you're watching, while also tossing a couple marbles out on to the field for your team to trip on.
In some situations (like the last couple weeks) selling begets more selling. By selling something you don't own you are essentially inputting "false" shares into the trading market which may or may not influence other traders. Selling 1000 shares does nothing but could you imagine what shorting 100k shares in the middle of a low volume day can do? We've had days where our percentage of short trades out of total trades was nearly 40%! That's 40% of all shares traded being bet against the SP. That's not betting that's game fixing D:
A 100% move doesn't just come out of nowhere, unfortunately. I don't disagree that this stock is capable of that kind of move... people have proven they think $2.50 is worth buying, but until there is game-STARTING news there will never be a buying urgency to cause a move like that.
Cool your jets everyone and realize that the slower the PPS growth the slower the pull back we'll see :)
Hi there "General" shark ;)
Looks like I followed you over from our other board. I Would love to hear more of your thoughts regarding TAUG and the conference.
:CHEERS:
So obviously ATTBF should have never reached the lows it did. I think everyone on this board is in agreement of that. It only got there riding on the ill-will of shorters and the uncertainty they caused in traders.
With that in mind what is the opinion of the board regarding the current will towards the sector? Do you think we should be able to keep these gains or do you think we're in for another week of darkness?
Here's hoping Mike gets to meet our Shark tomorrow :D
It's a relief to see that the buying has returned, it's only bittersweet for me considering I sold part of my position yesterday
Thanks! I wrote that off a bit quick so it's not my complete thoughts on the topic and probably not very well said either... My apologies to anyone who read it that didn't need to, but I feel like someone needed to set a bit of realism into this forum.
I'm a newb investor so my opinions should be taken with a serious grain of salt, but I think my opinions are mostly in line with what a lot of the bigger investors on this board are thinking but not properly saying.
I still have LOTS OF FAITH in Abattis and they're still on my short-list of stocks to watch damn closely, but I'm trying to be realistic at the same time.
I have much respect for the opinions of a few of the bullish posters on this board and I hope that I get to eat my words and reinvest in a spike to $2 this week. I would love to make up some of my lost profits...
I'm looking forward to hearing about this event on Thursday! No doubt it will bring in some heavy hands, but no guarantee they will invest so soon.
Here's the way I see it...
This entire sector was in such a limelight, there was such unbridled enthusiasm and expectation (a la the dot com). This caused the entire sector to all-around soar. Companies were being valuated based on other companies SP, and projections based on a borderline unknowable future for the sector. April 1st was supposed to be a huge moment for the sector and there was panic BUYING happening- people didn't want to miss out. The best companies soared the highest because investors aren't stupid. However even the best companies soared too high because we all had green in our eyes. NOTE: even though Mike wasn't claiming Abattis would have their license to grow April 1st, it was still a sector-wide landmark- the day all these companies become legitimate, or the companies they are being compared to become legitimate. It was supposed to be the day we were all to have our dreams confirmed, "This sector is REAL, this valuation is REAL"...
Some external (economic) events happened to land March 19th forcing many investors to decide which of their holdings had to be cut. All markets suffered gross declines however most recovered. Abattis approached recovery but consider this strike #1 to less knowledgeable investors regarding Abattis's upwards momentum.
By mid day March 21st Abattis's share price had recovered ~60% towards it's March 19th peak when the Canadian judge offered an injunction in the law temporarily allowing the old system to more or less continue in parallel while the new industry found it's balance. This prompted a sector-wide decline, driving Abattis down roughly 30% again. This was a huge blow to the industry and castrated much of the enthusiasm investors had for this new sector. Consider this strike #2 to momentum.
The injunction set the stage for the sector's BEAR momentum. Whereas before investors were able to make lofty projections and cement it in some sort of stone "The Injunction" reminded investors that they have no idea what the industry is really going to look like one year from now. The laws are changing as we speak and we never really know which way it's going to go. All signs point to legalization, but HOW?
"The bigger they are the harder they fall", Abattis was approaching overbought territory, having increased many-fold in a short period of time. Strike #2 hit hard, causing a steady downward momentum for Abattis. Not even Mike's optimistic press release was enough to keep us afloat.
March 27th CANN: Advanced Cannabis's trading was halted for two weeks. This news rocked the industry showing investors the first signs of the trouble that everyone was expecting to see from pink sheet penny land. Abattis, who was still reeling from the injunction just got smacked by further sector-doubt. End of day showed another 20% drop for Abattis compared to the previous day's 5% drop. Strike #3 and Abattis's SP is looking quite unstable to investors.
Despite this it was Abattis's time for SP growth again. Compared to the rest of the sector it was appearing OVERSOLD. Maybe mix in a little bit of pre-April 1st excitement left over from those who weren't keeping up with the news, and Abattis regained over 30% in one day. This IMO, was the last high Abattis has seen.
Remember that at this point Abattis's valuation is based on the sector's valuation, nothing more. Without a license some people still saw Abattis as a castrated company, and the sector in general is still just trying to find it's new footing. This is the only thing still keeping Abattis on it's downward trend. There has been more halts causing more uncertainty about the sector. Abattis has missed the boat on being the first publicly traded licensed company, which in this reality of the sector turns out to not be worth as much as everyone expected (TWEED has been bleeding pretty bad, too).
Abattis is the same company it was when it was at it's peaks. Better, even. It is however the entire sector around it that has been changed and the investor attitude towards the sector. Abattis may be a diamond in the rough, but that doesn't mean it will trade at $2.50 again any time soon.
That price was then. That was when unbridled optimism ran the market. Now we are seeing pessimism. Soon we will see real investors projecting real valuations, Abattis and the sector around it will be a real stock. The gold rush has passed now we're just investing in a real company. With this in mind, IHUB, what is Abattis truly worth?
Just because they were considering leasing (or selling?) space to Dairy farmers doesn't mean they're going to be raising cows inside a factory... They're probably going to use it as a milk pasteurization facility...
As for PPS I think if there's no OTC Monday there's a good chance we see another dip down 20-30 cents. Personally I'm hoping to jump in around the $2 mark but we'll see where the market takes it. Good luck to all the holders and good luck to everyone still waiting to get in!
Does anyone have any stats as to what percentage of canadian mm users grow their own supply? Trying to gauge how much this latest ruling will effect our new marketplace...
I don't think there's been any news on TWD co-listing in the US- you will probably just have to purchase their TSX shares.
Any reason why you think the pps will be launching at 89c?
Yes, I think there is a lot of eyes on tweed already. They have gotten more Canadian press than some of their constituents (Abattis...), however I wouldn't be shocked if the launch flies *slightly* under the radar of most people. If Tweed launches before Abattis gets their license they will be the first licensed Canadian MMJ on the market!
There will probably be tons of press here in Canada on the new MMJ laws around and after April 1st.
(all of this is In my HUMBLED opinion)
Don't dream too big just yet, do we have any idea how many shares are being created?
I am loving these after hours press releases. Bring on the inflated open and lets get tomorrow started right!
Anyhow, assuming we get a day or two of light consolidation in this week on no news I think it's about time we start discussing what happens come next week.
Next week is our final week before the April 1st "deadline". We here on IHUB know that just because the laws take effect beginning April 1st doesn't mean that no license by then means an end to Abattis. Our CEO has declared he expects the license by some point in JUNE as his conservative plan (gotta be able to account for your rainy days- he's playing this right) but all this SP run up is likely in anticipation of the license announcement causing huge press and huge long (and short) investments.
So... What happens if we don't have any news by... say, 03/26? Do you project there will be significant sells in the "final" days before April on no news? I'm debating sitting out next week and buying back in at market the moment I see a license.
Penny(stock-no-more) for your thoughts?