Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
New AIM account with IFN and IIF
I opened a new AIM account with IFN @ 39.2
I have also started an AIM account with IIF @ 39.5
I have only bought 25% shares for both of
these accounts.I will build in to full AIM position over next few months.
I think IFN had a premium of 13% when i placed the order.
Thanks
Kavi.
Yahoo article of PCA and Robert Lichello
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060624/20060624005007.html?.v=1
Re: IIF vs IFN
IFN has performed little better lately, may be just because of the premium, not the underlyings, because the performance difference is 30 to 40% which is the premium for IFN.
Infact i am only trying to get in to IIF, i don't even think i will get an entry into IFN, even after SENSEX corrected 30% the premium never came down, may be as you said, hedge funds are not moving out of this fund.
Kavi.
Rights offering in IFN
I am not familiar with how rights offering works, does that
mean, we may be able to get 30% shares at 95% of NAV, with out paying any premium? What is the cost of buying the rights.
Kavi
For a while AIMers will be under water, BTW As Tom said that is exactly what we have been waiting for all these days by keeping so much cash to SINK.
Kavi.
Re: Candidates
2006 Volcano has already started erupting.
AIM loves volatility, i think all this uncertainity about inflation etc, adds oil in the fire, which is good for AIMers.
Kavi.
Re Kavi...
Yeah, we should be glad we have such a wonderful warning system IW on the sea.
Kavi.
Re: Hi Kavi, Re: Questions
Thanks Tom, i have a better grip of allocating cash reserve for midcaps now.
Regarding IW, i did not know valueline updates P/E ratio every two weeks, that should be good enough i guess.
Despite IW was on high risk zone for a while, i still opened
2 new AIM accounts recently, FXI and PPC. So far PPC has held up better. If only i can KILL the emotions completely.....
Anyway with out IW i might have put all my money in the
market, i should be happy that i still have 50% cash.
Hats off to IW.
Kavi.
Re mutual funds.
Thanks Tom,
I will check out the local library. I think all of sudden
we are getting more investment oppurtunities. Now we are going to run out of CASH pretty soon.
Kavi.
IW - Questions.
1) For midcap stocks/funds are we suppose to use large cap cash reserve values or small cap cash reserve values?
2) IW valuation component uses the valueline P/E ratio and short term fed fund rate together to arrive at the fair valuation. These values are used in conjuction with latest closing price of shares.
My question is since market is always very futuristic are n't we looking at little stale data (valueline P/E and fed funds rate) since market prices the likelihood of next interest rate hike and potential economic slowdown and reflect that in the stock price, where as we still use old P/E estimate (while will change if the economy slows down) etc.
Since we compare the stock prices which already digested the potential futuristic expecations with little older valueline data which does not reflect the latest development yet, is it possible we might arrive at REDUCED RISK conclusion where as in real terms the risk stays the same or higher. Or has this been addressed already in some other IW components???
Sorry for the long post.
Regards
Kavi.
Re: Hi Kavi FXI
This is my first buy in this slow down.
I have whole bunch of new accounts that i want to start. I am just waiting for IW to reach mid point in average risk zone.
With all the inflation uncertainities looming around
hopefully we will able to see it rather quickly i hope.
I have been eyeing BRAIX (mutual fund), VEIEX/ AMTD, IIF/IFN (indian ETFs) and any potential new PIC candidates.
After JBL 21% drop today quite sooner it is going to make the PIC list.
Kavi.
Buy on FXI
Added 10% of FXI at 65.90 today.
Kavi.
Mutual fund - BRAIX AIMing
I have been watching this mutual fund for a while, this seems to have real roller coaster price movements with strong long term track record.
This is a newer mutual fund that follows the same principle as
the older closed mutual fund BRAGX
Do we have a discussion board for discussing mutual funds or it belongs here.
Kavi.
Re FVI
I came across another ETF (PIV) from powershares that seems
to have similar objective. It selects the stocks based on valueline timeliness.
Kavi.
Re: IFN
Well Ez
Patience pays off, it is tempting already, still i want to
to do TWINWEST ing by splitting the total amount in to 3 or 4
equal installments and do it as it further drops.
Kavi.
Re: kavi ~~ just a FYI! on general INDIA market
Thanks EZ. I have been following indian market closely too.
I think we are atleast 20% away from entry. SENSEX closed at 9800. I have been thinking about slowing getting when and if SENSEX touches 8000. I think with current valuation it is trading about forward P/E of 17. It is too much for a risky emerging market. I think, even after such a dramatic drop, INDIA still is the most expensive emerging market.
Kavi.
Re: PREMIUM on ETFs
You can find this info on www.etfconnect.com
For closed end funds, they don't update the ETFs real time,some time they update once a week, depends on the fund.
Kavi.
Re: IFN
EZ - it is ridiculous still this fund has 33% premium.
It is like paying 33% load to a mutual fund. I can't convince myself to just throw away 33% of my money just to get into the ETF.
India Fund (IFN)
Closed-End ETFs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fund Quick Facts
As of 05/31/2006
Closing NAV: $36.47 Current Market Yield: 0.25%
Closing Share Price: $48.50 Premium/(Discount): 32.99%
Re: Stock selection using valueline survey
First of all thanks a lot for spending your valuable time for educating aspiring AIMers.
i read
http://www.aim-users.com/vlis.htm
few questions.
1) You have specified stocks with low BETA also works well with AIM. My understanding is that low BETA stocks hardly ever moves up or down relative to market ie less volatility. ???
2) insider trading - valueline only seems to give how many insider transactions have happened not the size of the transaction, don't we want to count the value of total sales - total buy rather than the number of sales. Or does valueline size up the value in the counts?
for eg. 1 buy worth 1 million vs 5 sells of few thousands.
>> Most Public Libraries will have Value Line available and >>it's usually available at most full service and some discount >>brokerages as well Most Public Libraries will have Value Line >>available and it's usually available at most full service and >>some discount brokerages as well
BTW - do you know any brokerage who provides valueline report for their customers, i couldn't find any, currently i am getting it through my library.
Thanks Tom, Good night.
Kavi.
Re:Top 100 growth stocks
So from the very fact that the stock is part of the list, preliminary analysis of the stock pretty much done, so we can just evaluate other things like stock price stability and beta, Debt ratio etc.
Kavi.
Entry point for indian ETFs
Indian SENSEX index is currently at 10,800 and its all time high was 12600. Based on my little reading the fair value
should be some where around 8500 which needs atleast 30% drop from current level.
Regards
Kavi.
MXIM - for watch list - Book value calculation.
It is in 100 fast growing companies with timeliness of 3 currently.
Based on valueline report, future book value growth seems to be meak 5% where as everything else looks good.
But the dividend growth has been projected as 25%
How do you include dividend distribution in the equation.
If the company keeps distributing dividends would not it
reduce the book value growth?
Thanks
Kavi.
Tom - Re COGN
http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060516...
Cognos announced the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission review and filing delay late on Monday. The review is looking into how Cognos has accounted for its support revenues and the SEC's conclusions may effect the way the company allocates revenue.
COGN - Potential PIC stock?
COGN is still part of the 100 fast growing company with timeliness 4. During the past week stock has fallen almost 20% due to pending SEC probe. I think you have mentioned before that this is a former PIC stock.
There is a good chance COGN might become timeliness 5 very quickly. How do you deal with these kind of SEC probes?
Kavi.
Tom - Indian ETFs
Very soon we will be able to start AIM ing them.
Kavi.
EZ-- Indian ETFs
Indian market is literally crashing.
Trading was suspended for 1 hour for government bailout of the
market. Glad we waited.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/22/news/international/india.reut/index.htm
IFN/IIF indian ETFs
EZ
Bad luck (may be good luck who knows). I had a limit order
to buy at 45.00 for IIF, it has only gone down to 47 so i could not buy. I just wanted to buy 1/4 of total shares at 200 day moving average and keep adding the rest as it goes down. IIF premium come down to 1% from 14 since jan 06.
IFN is not coming down at all, i am not going to touch it.
It is amazing even after indian SENSEX index is down 7% these
ETFs don't pull back that much.
www.equitymaster.com is a decent source of indian market commentary.
Kavi.
IIF
Fund Quick Facts
As of 05/17/2006
Closing NAV: $48.03 Current Market Yield: 0.86%
Closing Share Price: $48.51 Premium/(Discount): 1.00%
Tom/Steve Re: AMTD balance sheet
Thanks for the explanation. It makes more sense now. It looks like Yahoo data is pretty obsolete.
Kavi.
EZ - IFN/IIF indian ETFs FREEFALL TODAY
Indian stock indexes corrected 7% today. Expect a freefall
in IFN and IIF etfs.
IIF all time high is around 58, yesterday closing price 48.
200 day moving average around 45. I have a feeling it will
go below 200 day moving average today. Still not a big bargain
yet, but much better than starting AIM earlier. It might become a good entry point unless this downtown turns in to a BEAR market which is a good possibility.
IFN has a hefty premium much more than IIF which i think will evaporate during this downturn.
Kavi.
AMTD - Balance Sheet question?
This is from yahoo Key Statistics
Seems like it $13.17 cash /share
$1.38 debt / share.
Book value / share is 3.559, should n't it be atleast $11
What am i missing here?
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 7.95B
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 13.179
Total Debt (mrq): 2.00B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 1.381
Current Ratio (mrq): 1.06
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 3.559
AMTD - share buy back?
Looks like AMTD is buying back their shares intensively.
Was there a share buy back announced for AMTD. I could not
find any news in this regard.
Buy(P) /
Sell(S) P/S date Filed Date Company Symbol Insider Relationship Share Amt. Unit Price Total Proceeds Shares Owned Return(1m) Details
P 2006-05-12 2006-05-16 20:25:40 TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP AMTD TORONTO DOMINION BANK 10% owner 1,468,700 $18.10 $2.65835E7 3.0E7 view
P 2006-05-15 2006-05-16 20:25:40 TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP AMTD TORONTO DOMINION BANK 10% owner 300,000 $17.68 $5,304,000.00 3.03E7 view
P 2006-05-10 2006-05-12 16:30:19 TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP AMTD TORONTO DOMINION BANK 10% owner 1,952,000 $19.05 $3.71856E7 2.65793E7 view
P 2006-05-11 2006-05-12 16:30:19 TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP AMTD TORONTO DOMINION BANK 10% owner 1,952,000 $18.76 $3.66195E7 2.85313E7 view
P 2006-05-08 2006-05-10 17:11:49 TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP AMTD TORONTO DOMINION BANK 10% owner 1,952,000 $19.16 $3.74003E7 2.28753E7 view
P 2006-05-09 2006-05-10 17:11:49 TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP AMTD TORONTO DOMINION BANK 10% owner 1,752,000 $19.02 $3.3323E7 2.46273E7 view
P 2006-05-04 2006-05-08 16:08:09 TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP AMTD TORONTO DOMINION BANK 10% owner 1,611,100 $18.85 $3.03692E7 1.93122E7 view
P 2006-05-05 2006-05-08 16:08:09 TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP AMTD TORONTO DOMINION BANK 10% owner 1,611,100 $19.18 $3.09009E7 2.09233E7 view
P 2006-05-02 2006-05-04 17:16:52 TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP AMTD TORONTO DOMINION BANK 10% owner 1,611,100 $18.12 $2.91931E7 1.609E7 view
P 2006-05-03 2006-05-04 17:16:52 TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP AMTD TORONTO DOMINION BANK 10% owner 1,611,100 $18.14 $2.92254E7 1.77011E7 view
P 2006-04-28 2006-05-02 14:03:32 TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP AMTD TORONTO DOMINION BANK 10% owner 1,383,900 $18.94 $2.62111E7 1.28678E7 view
P 2006-05-01 2006-05-02 14:03:32 TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP AMTD TORONTO DOMINION BANK 10% owner 1,611,100 $18.55 $2.98859E7 1.44789E7 view
P 2006-04-26 2006-04-28 18:36:49 TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP AMTD TORONTO DOMINION BANK 10% owner 750,000 $19.35 $1.45125E7 1.01E7 view
Re: Hi Kavi RE LD-AIM
Good Morning - TooFuzzy/Steve/Tom
Thanks for the LD-AIM explanation and spread sheet.
I have updated my email address in the profile for future
communications.
Looks like LD-AIM will only capture predefined upside potential (35% or so) unless the stock keeps trading in the range repeatedly.
How do we select the stocks for LD-AIM? For classic AIM we can afford to wait for a longer period before we get any sell/buy since we are thinking about the stock as a very long term investment.
But since we have smaller profit expectation would it make sense to trade the stocks that have already started their uptrend instead of bottom fishing (Like Tom's PIC list).
I think all other attributes of stocks like fundamentals etc can be same for classic AIM vs LD-AIM. But what about the time of entry we cannot afford wait for long before the stock moves in LD-AIM.
Please share your thoughts...
Regards
Kavi.
Grabber
Can you please send me the LD-AIM worksheet?
Does it have enough information about the variances from traditional AIM
Thanks
Kavi
Tom - I also looked at last week's fastest growing companies list.
INTC is still in timeliness 4 and a few more,
Lateley decent number of high quality (???) stocks are making 52 weeks low.
DELL, EBAY, BOL, PDCO.
I am trying to control my urge of buying mostly because of overall market condition and IW-suggested market bearishness.
It is good we have IW to guide us through the sea. Otherwise it would have been very hard to stay the course.
BTW, do you make any decision based on the amount of short interest a stock has? Do you consider it a postive or negative for the stocks future price. I have read both side of argument. For eg. PPC has about 21% of available stocks shorted. GNSS has about 27% shorted.
Kavi.
Congrats! Looks like your account is running full steam
Kavi
Tom- AIM Stock selection
When i looked through the old Q&A section i came across the following post.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=290691
Do you still follow this approach for stock selection?
Or lately you are only using PIC selection?
In that post you have said you were going to discuss the ideas
for stock selection for AIM in Las vegas. Do you have any
transcripts of those discussion. I am looking for more reading material that would help me identify good long term AIM candidates.
Thanks
Kavi
Hmm interesting.
Looks like Lichello has done all the hardwork and given us a simple inventory control system.
I wish he is still alive, he will be very glad to see his system has been followed religously by thousands of people all around the world.
PLT - New AIM Account???
PLT has dropped 35% in 2 trading days from 36.68 to 24.15.
Such a deep discount for 2 trading day.
It is again like GNSS sale softening and earnings slowing etc.
It does not make sense, is there any thing else going that we dont understand.
I am thinking about starting a new AIM account on PLT.
I know Grabber is doing LD-AIM with this. I want to do tradional AIM with 60% cash reserve and keep it as a long term holding.
Any suggestions, i have not done much reading on the company yet.
Excellent explanation. Now i understand, i will start using zig-zag analysis in all my existing accounts to see whether my current setting are efficient.
Thanks Tom
Hi Tom - Zig zag...
Thanks for the explanation, now it is little more clear.
When do you count a cycle to be on the wrong side.
1) buy above MA and sell below MA
2) buy above MA and does not matter where it sells
3) sell below MA does not matter where it buys.
or any of the above?
Kavi.