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From ST. Borrowing rates for shorts has increased dramatically; it could make some shorts cover on that fact alone.
ConfirmationBiasSuxs
9:35 AM
$AVXL 9.4% for the borrow rate... that's an 1100% increase in 60 days... Something is happening
coinspitter
9:39 AM
@ConfirmationBiasSuxs I see 7.1% at IB but agree, its getting expensive for the big shortie
@ConfirmationBiasSuxs Fintel is listing 9.40% right now
It is cyclical; but still highly priced on the desirables.
John k9uwa, consider taking some of you AVXL profits once the stock is evaluated on Alzheimer, Rett, and Parkinson WW sales and get back into muscle cars. Besides the fun times they are a great investment too. I bought mine in 1990 for $9K, and is a six figure car now, the 1970 454 Chevelle Convertible SS are extremely rare and at factory 450HP and 500 TQ was the highest HP Muscle car ever made back in those days (Mine is modified and well over 500 HP). Life is too short to not enjoy it when you can. The local car shows and meets are good times and you meet new friends. Fun fact, a 1970 454 Chevelle Convertible SS like mine was undefeated in 1970 and 1971, nicknamed the Hemi Killer, by beating all the Hemis and big block Fords it came up against, it sold for over a Million $$ at auction decades ago.
After Hour single big trade..... 17:12:25 -- $6.60 -- vol- 45,979 That after hour late SP and Vol also supports the +9.09% gain and closing SP of $6.60 near the HOD of $6.62 minutes before the close. Bullish for tomorrow.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/avxl/after-hours-trades
Over on the other board there are many calling for Missling to release the AD data in a PR before the forth coming science/medical paper that will be published in a major journal. FWIW, this is my reply and opinion in case it is debated here:
"In corporate finance, Contingent Value Rights (CVR) are rights granted by an acquirer to a company’s shareholders, facilitating the transaction where some uncertainty is inherent. CVRs may be separately tradeable securities; they are occasionally acquired by specialized hedge funds."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_value_rights
From ST, this is good news for longs looking for a possible short squeeze:
$AVXL Short borrow rate just jumped again 3.76%!!... higher it goes the more pressure on the shorts to clear... and that's millions of shares they need to buy back!
Bullish"
(ConfirmationBiasSuxs at ST)
EMA may be leading the way for an Anavex into European Alzheimer market as the SOC. I think they most certainly will be well received considering the outstanding safety record combined with superior efficacy and positive RWD. EMA covers 7 Million AD patients and rising fast; the cost is crushing their budgets into the red, It is a top subject in the cost of health and financial problems. They will not only see this from a compassionate view; but saving Billions in the future as the population ages. I think they will push it through as fast as allowed. Obviously the market is not as enthused as most of us shareholders. However I like to think ahead like we do in chess; sometimes you have to pull back to see where trends are going. I think months from now, not years, that Alzheimer with Anavex safe pill treatments will be two topics that will start heating up.
A short time for waiters, a scary time for shorts.
A market of 7 Million Alzheimer patients foretells SOC revenues in the high multi Billions.
Best part is saving the minds of the elderly and live in dignity,
MayoMobile on ST:
Anavex: -12.93 on RSBQ
DAYBUE: -4.9 on RSBQ
Anavex end score was so much better.
$9.84 HOD just printed.
Has a decent shot of MM Vol close
I think TGA will be the be making Anavex news soon likely in the next quarter.
Thalidomide was used on my second wife who had a very rare cancer. It stopped the blood supply to the tumors for 2 years, resulting in stopping the tumors growth, but it did not eliminate the cancer, The Doc tried her on a different promising medication that did not work and she eventually died after a 5 year fight. So in some cases Thalidomide is effective, it gave her an extra two years of life which was a blessing.
My first wife also died of cancer, she fought it for 4 years.
Two weeks ago my present wife has been diagnosed with CLL Leukemia. Fortunately it is a slow growth.
Merry Christmas my friends, hold your love ones close.
I
Market turned sharply red around mid day. Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, Russell, and XBI as well as AVXL in the red. Nothing to do but ride it out or buy shares cheaper. I'm looking at the call options too.
MayoMobile ...(From ST).
7:43 AM
$AVXL Powerful science in this morning’s Rett PR.
This is the first genomic breakout in the Anavex Rett Suite and shows congruence with prior genomic breakouts in AD and PDD patients.
Specifically, strong response in mitochondrial protein expression along with other metabolic & transcription/translation expression. This is complemented by additional neurodevelopmental focused gene improvements. In my opinion, this allows prior AD/PDD genomic data to be coupled in with Rett NDA.
Additionally, the heat map is wonderful for the layperson and clearly identifies probably 7 super responders (of 18 dosed patients) with only 1-2 ‘non’ responders. There is a clear delineation between dosed and placebo patients and bodes very well for primary outcomes in the large forthcoming RS-003 trial data.
Looking forward to analyzing this more later.
Looks like stop losses were taken out during first few minutes. MM needed shares.
If that can be verified, that would be a $6,461,368 trade.
If so, that is a pretty big bite out of the total of shares shorted.
Needs verification.
AVXL. Population-Based Characterization of the Pharmacokinetics and Food Effect of ANAVEX3-71, a Novel Sigma-1 Receptor and Allosteric M1 Muscarinic Receptor Agonist in Development for Treatment of Frontotemporal Dementia, Schizophrenia, and Alzheimer Disease.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38073274/
FWIW Early in After hours a decent size single trade:
16:02:02 $8.01 Vol - 33,931
AVXL on lower volume pretty much followed the XBI today.
It's good to see the oversold XBI rising above the red markets today, even if it is a little gain: 79.54 +0.74 (+0.94%)
I have seen a couple of articles talk about the Bios as well as the XBI being long term oversold and was due to recover. The Bio pendulum moving from oversold to buying. ..
"Shares of XBI Now Oversold"
October 12, 2023
"Looking at a chart of one year performance XBI's low point in its 52 week range is $68.48 per share, with $92.60 as the 52 week high point"
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/shares-of-xbi-now-oversold-0
The higher the price and the lower the cost, the higher the Profit Margin. In any case, your Profit Margin can never exceed 100 percent, which only happens if you're able to sell something that cost you nothing.
https://personalmba.com/profit-margin/#:~:text=((Revenue%20%2D%20Cost)%20%2F%20Revenue,)%20*%20100%20%3D%20%25%20Profit%20Margin&text=The%20higher%20the%20price%20and,something%20that%20cost%20you%20nothing.
Due Diligence for those seeking new knowledge, multiple sources:
Multiple Clinical Milestones Achieved and Promising Ongoing Development Driving Progress towards Commercialization
See page 15; for viewing the extensive pipeline and multiple drugs for various diseases.
This was the last Anavex Corporate Presentation May 2023; there has been progress since May this year.
https://www.anavex.com/_files/ugd/79bcf7_97da6311c3b643bea8e9a6659bb51422.pdf
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How Soon Might Anavex's Alzheimer's Drug Be Approved? The Good/Bad News
Nov. 29, 2023 7:21 AM ET Anavex Life Sciences Corp. (AVXL)
Snip:
Summary:
"The EU recommends Anavex proceed with a full approval application for Alzheimer's drug Blarcamesine based on full Phase 2b/3 trial data.
The U.S. FDA may grant accelerated approval to Anavex's Blarcamesine based on biomarker data alone. Blarcamesine is far safer than Biogen's Leqembi, which was granted accelerated approval in three months.
The FDA may accept Anavex's ongoing ATTENTION-AD study as a supplement to the Phase 2b/3 trial, potentially shortening the full and regular approval timeline. That data comes out in 2023.
human brain"
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173316790
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SOTC Analytics strives to report medical intelligence pertaining to neurodegenerative & neurodevelopmental disorders to include Alzheimer's Disease, Parkinson's Disease, Rett Syndrome, Angelman Syndrome, Fragile X, and more:
https://www.sotcanalytics.com/
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Update Compendium 2023
https://www.sotcanalytics.com/update-compendium-2023
Does Fidelity offer LV-2 ?
I took advantage of the drop in SP on the Rett delay and wired funds in for decent size cheap buys.
Nothing has changed with the company to account for the drop in SP other than the Rett delay; a very temporary problem that does not change the investment.
FWIW The funds showed up in my Schwab account by the time I got home from the bank; TDA was never that quick.
Thanks Kdskds, I'm in.
What is the meeting pass code? Thanks
In a way, the shorts have done longs a favor by crushing the SP so we longs can load up on cheap shares by creating a much larger position than what would not have been possible without all those cheap short sells intended to keep the SP deflated.
However the shorts have literally painted themselves into the proverbial corner. They will not be able to keep a lid on the coming good news PRs that will indicate significant future AD and Rett revenues that will force the SP higher as the powerful Institutes add to their position, along with retail which will be buying up what shares become available; causing a squeeze that will be forcing the shorts to cover with buying shares and also buying call options. Who would be selling? That is the short's unsolvable dilemma.
2023 Top shelf Due Diligence for those seeking information.
Thanks to MayoMobile for the best comprehensive data and indepth analysis. See link at bottom.
(( The following part is my opinion only and not an advice to buy or sell AVXL.
I have been investing since Moses was a little boy it seems, and occasionally I have witnessed a new company that comes along destined for greatness. We all know the familiar names The-Wheel ...fast forward > Microsoft, Amazon, Amgen, etc. that gave stunning ROI. If you believe that AVXL will receive a drug approvals for treating Alzheimer, then IMO the returns on the investment will be stunning based on 7 Million with AD in Europe, 6.7 Million in the US, 401,300 in Australia, and 55 Million WW.
No matter how conservative you figure the revenue, if the drug receives approval then the revenue will be record breaking in the CNS space; and quite likely for any drug WW considering all the indications treated, like Parkinson and Rett; and the ubiquitous rare diseases with no current treatments. That is my personal take)).
https://www.sotcanalytics.com/update-compendium-2023
As of 2022 10K accumulated deficit $245,563,781
Today's analysis from Mayo Mobile: regarding the EMA/AVXL news:
Bottom-line Up Front (BLUF): On 20 Nov 2023, Anavex re-ignited investor interest by disclosing that the company has been in discussions with the European Medicines Agency (EMA), and that the company has made initial filing for Centralized Procedure.
Assessment: It has been Spirit of the Coast's position for nearly a year that Anavex's first - or at least most emphasized - regulatory effort would be with the EMA. In fact, on the SOTC homepage we write: we assess it is likely Anavex will pursue European approval first and foremost, as they designed the 2b/3 trial to accommodate EMA Alzheimer's guidance, and the European population has the absolute most favorable genomic qualities for effective therapy.
According to a large genome database, the European population has approximately 7.5% greater S1R WT prevalence than the American population, 2.5% greater than the African population, and 18% greater than the Asian population. This statistic is bolstered by the fact that Americans with European ancestry have the highest S1R WT prevalence of American population groups.
Beyond having the most favorable genomic qualities for efficacious therapy, the Alzheimer's 2b/3 trial design and outcomes are both in alignment with EMA guidance and approval values. Earlier in the year, we had this to say:
Anavex approached their trial design deliberately with EMA (European) approval as a primary consideration. Unlike the Aducanumab and Lecanemab trials (ENGAGE, EMERGE & CLARITY), the Anavex Alzheimer's 2b/3 utilized guidance directly from the EMA's 2018 Alzheimer's instruction. This is important because so far, MaB treatments like Aducanumab and Lecanemab have failed to garner approval in Europe and Australia. Reason being, the EMA noted that although Aducanumab reduces amyloid beta in the brain, the link between this effect and clinical improvement had not been established. In addition, the studies did not show that the medicine was sufficiently safe. Therefore, the EMA's opinion was that the benefits did not outweigh the risks.
Anavex has excellent opportunity for approval in Europe due to their deliberate accommodating design. These are some of the items implemented towards this end.
Favors co-primary endpoints with a cognitive outcome (ADAS-COG) and a functional outcome (ADCS-ADL).
Secondary endpoint with global measure (CDR-SB).
Company clearly identified the 'responder' criteria.
Beyond those design considerations, differences between FDA & EMA Alzheimer's guidance is favorable towards Blarcamesine as shown below:
EMA favors disease modification whereas FDA favors a 'persistent effect on disease course.
This is interesting because when Lecanemab patients stopped dosing, the little improvement they had began to once again degenerate.
Blarcamesine is easily identifiable as the only true disease modifying compound to complete pivotal trials. [Edit: with Donanemab data now available, I do believe it is sound to consider the drug disease modifying]
EMA favors trial designs showing dose dependency (30mg + 50mg).
EMA approves less drugs than the FDA, but the EMA places higher value on high therapeutic value.
From a semi-recent analysis:
Expedited drug approvals requiring high therapeutic value: 45% (FDA), 67% (EMA)
Standard drug approvals requiring high therapeutic value: 13% (FDA), 27% (EMA)
"In mild to moderate AD to accept an effect on cognition it should be clinically meaningful. The clinical relevance should be confirmed by an effect on function or clinical global assessment in a co-primary endpoint approach."
More information can be found here, but as a brief summation, Anavex has postured themselves in clinical design to approach the EMA for approval. Additionally, their 2b/3 outcomes meet approval preferences by the EMA, being an efficacious, inexpensive, and safe drug. In our opinion, Lecanemab still fails to meet many of the criteria set out by the European regulatory agency, and Lecanemab is unlikely to garner approval there; we give an ~20% chance.
More MayoMobile analysis information in this link:
https://www.sotcanalytics.com/update-compendium-2023#h.xkrui77mb8s8
On the Fri after Thanksgiving the stock market closes early at 1:00 et.
An estimated 6.7 million Americans age 65 and older are living with Alzheimer's in 2023. However the European Alzheimer population in Europe is a little larger at 7 million.
Todays bullish EMA news targets an European Alzheimer population of approximately 7 Million.
"It is estimated that 7 million people in Europe alone already live with Alzheimer’s disease. With a rapidly ageing population, it is a growing public health concern worldwide as this number is projected to rise to a staggering 14 million by 2030."
https://www.braincouncil.eu/projects/rethinking-alzheimers-disease/
Thanks for the chart NWDR, I recall seeing you post that in the past.
One item I question as being even below conservative estimates is Alzheimer, Epilepsy, and Parkinson being treated at 20% of the disease population. Seems in my estimation you could double that to 40% and I still would see that figure as being too low. I cannot imagine people with AD and PD not take a drug that would improve their situation.
I was the care giver of my grandmother who succumbed to Alzheimer, and know first hand that any help would be a blessing.