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I think it is only a matter of time before the SP reflects a truer representation of the value here. Also once the FDA regulations are made known it should lift the cloud of uncertainty that has been effecting the whole industry and provide a clear path for moving forward in the US.
ECIG has definitely taught me some lessons. Especially in patience.
Dan and Phil have done a truly remarkable job turning things around and getting back on course.
Thanks CUIN, hope you are well! Once I develop it some more I would be more than happy to sell it to Dan for some stock so I can make my money back here! LOL
I agree. I think something positive might of been leaked about the pending regulations.
There has also been more favorable mainstream media about the industry lately:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/e-cigs-inconvenient-truth-its-much-safer-to-vape-20151221
There is also a film coming out soon which I am excited about and I hope garners some media attention. Here is the trailer:
http://abillionlives.com/you-are-being-lied-to/
Hola ECIG longs! How is everyone doing? Nice to see some green today. Any speculation as for the jump?
I have not been able to follow as closely lately, but still have not sold any shares. Nice to still see some of the same names around here.
Also on a side note, I now own my own Vape Business, which I am currently working on full-time. I wont post the URL here, but you can PM me or google "sell vape" and it is the first result if you would like to know more about it. It's an interesting concept that I will be developing further and franchising out to several other target markets outside the US in 2016 (Not your typical vape retail store). So I now have some new insight into the industry. We should have something concrete from the FDA as far as how this industry is going to be regulated within the next month or 2. The good news is that ECIG will most likely not be negatively effected should the ruling not go in the industries favor - which can not be said for most of the smaller vape manufactuers and Vape shops.
Cheers!
Hello and cheers fellow ECIG longs.
Just read the 10Q and listened to the conference call. Well done Dan and Phil. It really is amazing how much has been achieved to date.
Also very excited and intrigued that they are moving headquarters to Denver. Denver is my old stomping ground so I might just have to pay them a visit once they get settled in!
Also thank you to the faithful longs who have continued posting during our quite period. Have not had much time to join the discussion, nor has there been much to discuss, but I think that will all change here very shortly.
Don't pay him any attention Christjamin.
I think everyone on the board see's right through his deceptive BS now. Simple scare tactics to play his "flips."
Since everything he has posted in the past has been proven to be completely false, with inductive reasoning we can assume that anything he continues to post will also be false.
Wow, great find! I have not had the chance to review the report yet but it looks like we were right all along pal. Where is SB, to admit he was wrong on that one too?
Congrats longs, lots of exciting things going on here:
-First and foremost revenue was right where most of us realistic longs expected for the first quarter, so no surprises there (like we had with the 10K). Unrealistic revenue expectations that cause volatile price swings should not longer be an issue.
-Simply having enough operating capitol from the new financing should substantially increase revenues for the remainder of the year (especially Q3 and Q4).
-All toxic debt has been eliminated
-Operating costs should be substanitally reduced moving forward.
-New Supply chain, inventory control and account management plans have been implemented
-A distribution deal is likely in the works with Mansour.
-Strategic acquisitions that will allow ECIG to continue cutting costs and drive profit are being sought.
Some may say it has been a slow turnaround, but when you really think about all that management has been able to achieve in the last few months you have to be very impressed with the progression in such short time. We are now in capable hands with a team strategically achieving everything they have set out to achieve. Now that the financial restructuring has been completed, management gets to focus completely on profitable growth. Dan is an expert in acquisition synergies (which will allow ECIG brands to operate for less then they would as standalone companies) and this is a key area of needed improvement that will give ECIG brands the competitive edge over their competition. I am more confident then I have ever been with my investment here I expect to see slow sustained PPS appreciation for the rest of the year.
Here is something else to think about. ManFin Co (the investment arm of Monsuer) had the right to purchase $40 Million worth of stock at a 15% discount. If this would of happened on April 27th (the date that the loan closed) this would of gotten them about 140 Million shares at $.32 each, immediately increasing the O/S by this amount.
What would of been a better option? That option or the $41 Million loan (that is not immediately dilutive) with the warrant options that could potentially include up to $70 Million in additional capitol if the warrants are exercised.
I would go with the option ECIG took with all day long and I could give you about 20 Million reasons why. If you look at it from this perspective, ECIG got a rather good deal.
Am I happy about the amount of shares Dan gave himself? No.
Do I think he is the right person for this Job? Absolutely and if his options were the cost of getting the right person for the job I am ok with it.
A guy of Dan's caliber does not make PR statements that can get himself into trouble or turn investors against him long term. He does not fluff and there is a reason he said what he said. Time will tell.
He led Molson into one of the largest brewery mergers in recent years and ended that year as the 7th highest paid executive in the world because of his options that were bought out in the merger. I would not be surprised at all if he leads ECIG in a similar direction, which would result in a very nice payday for himself. Maybe this has been the plan all along, and would explain the non-dilutive nature of the warrants.
If ECIG is bought out I believe the warrants will continue on as warrants of the acquiring company with the same expiration date and with the exercise terms adjusted to reflect the terms of the stock exchange in the merger.
This would essentially make them non dilutive. As could an IPO. Until we have proof that these new warrants have been exercised and sold no one can go start calling Dan a liar.
Wow are you going to stick to the 50% interest?
Do you really think people are that stupid?
The APR was 12%. Tying the upfront fees into the APR is twisting the facts.
If it cost me a $50 fee to get a $1,000 Credit Card with a 12% APR, I max it out, then pay it off and cancel it in 40 days - does that mean my APR was 50% then? No. It means my APR was 12%.
Posts like these I like, regardless of your overall sentiment.
Fair and balanced, providing similar financing deals as examples, and the pros and cons. Thank you.
The key, like you mentioned, is the new lender exercising and continuing to fund ECIG as needed but not irresponsbily selling into market.
With time, if fundamentals continue to improve, and after most of the warrant holders with short term intentions flush out, this lender will control much of the supply in the supply/demand equation and effectively be able to run the PPS up if they so desire. Especially if they purchase shares outside their warrants, as you mentioned.
After toxic debt has been eliminated, which I believe it almost all has, the PPS can be manipulated up ALMOST as easy as it was manipulated down.
IMO the risk factor has been eliminated if buying in at these prices. Anyone that says we will not hit .45 for some time is either intentionally lying or not very intelligent.
Thanks Millstone!
I appreciate your input. We have been waiting a long time and I believe everything is finally coming together for ECIG to finally be able to be valued properly again. The long term risk was substantially migitated here yesterday and I am now fully confident in the new management.
Although red, I was still happy with today's trading action and believe we will be back above pre-split ranges in short time after any remaining toxicity is flushed out. I also believe that those that intended on selling their warrants in the short term already have (probably within the first few days of the split). However, I believe the majority of remaining warrant holders plan on holding longer term, especially after this new financing deal.
Thanks. If the current O/S is truly only around 40 Million, teamed with today's news, then WOW.
I think most of us were expecting a much higher share count before dilution was stabilized.
Great thanks, I hope that is true!
I was expecting a much higher number. Do you or anyone else know if the T/A is the same as before, if they are still gagged, and why IR would be providing O/S but not the T/A?
Any ideas on the current O/S?
Is the 34,879,194 (3/30) the most recent known number?
I believe the total volume traded since 3/30 (excluding today) to be about 50 Million. If we assume half of this to be dilutive (extreme high end) we would have a current O/S around 60 Million.
I would be very happy with any O/S below this number, considering what transpired today and how much the balance sheet has now been cleaned up, to date. Hopefully the T/A is ungagged soon, as I imagine it will be.
Other thoughts on the current O/S? I have not been following as closely this last month.
41 Million!!
It is still sinking in!
I am really curious how much of this is from Monsour. Their right to purchase an additional 40 Million worth of equity is something that has intrigued me all along.
This new capital allows us to eliminate the toxic, discount convertible notes from our balance sheet, affixes our capital structure and provides the working capital necessary to fund our growth.
The Company has also repurchased and retired the remaining convertible subordinated notes, and fixed the conversion price of the remaining notes.
I am back. After the dissapointing Q4 results and a certain couple negative "know it all" poor sport posters, I had to take a break from this board for while for my own health and sanity.
Extremely happy we finally got the news of the long term financing us longs have been waiting for for so long and that the market sentiment has now changed back to positive. Management has delivered on all their promises to date and this non dilutive long term financing is absolutely HUGE!!! Can't wait to find out more details about all of this.
Also happy to be back posting on this board again!
And the evidence I point out is more than suffient.
There has not been an 8K filed saying that anyone has extend any notes out 18 months
You continue to skate around my original question: Why is Pinnacle holding shares and how did they get them? And to suggest that your smoky answer is "way more than just an opinion" without any factual evidence of this. Wow.
1. You do not know with any certainty what notes Pinnacle holds, so therefore you do not have the purchase agreement filings for these notes and therefore can not make the conjecture you did and then boldy state it as near fact.
2. You are quoting clauses from the 3/17/15 note filing, but then using examples from before these dates.
3. Some notes issued in 2015 before the O/S maxed out do not have these clauses.
4. If Pinnacle is the Senior Noteholder and renegotiated and extended their Senior notes 18 months out, even if they did include these clauses - why would they purposely try to convert when they know there are no shares available? To further hurt ECIG (the company they have control over) and the chances of ever being made whole on their notes?
Finally...
Why do you think ECIG paid one holder about $19M to extinguish a $9m note?
The Company has also agreed pay to the holders of the 6% Convertible Notes on each such trading day a fixed payment amount in cash in the amount of $128,571
Yes April 3rd was not a trading day, so the earliest any news or filing on this would be released is Monday. I agree it is quite annoying when posters imply things and then dance around answering directly.
I agree. Anyway you look at it it is good that a lender is now holding shares. I have been waiting for some beneficial ownership filings ever since the conversions started happening months ago and am very happy to finally get one. Now we know at least one lender is holding shares and this begins to shed more light on what has been happening here. I can't really think of anyway this can be construed as a negative.
Would it really be in their best interest to go out on the open market and buy shares at price range between $1.25-2.00 as Tb8 suggested?
So are you suggesting Pinnacle bought 2.5 million shares in open market on March 24th with the price range between $1.25-2.00? Even better!
Opinions on the 13G filing.
I believe the 13g suggests that Pinnacle is the Institutional Investor behind the last note. I have mentioned before that I believed this to be the case and that whomever this Noteholder is will play a significant role moving forward. The "Date of Event" on the 13g was March 24th, which was the first day of the R/S. This means Pennacle started converting and holding shares as soon as they were able and if they are indeed the investors behind the last note it means that there is a good chance this note is fully converted and/or paid off by now. Meaning 50% of the warrants issued with this note will be eliminated.
I think the 13g also suggests that Pinnacle is the last remaining Senior Noteholder, aka the ones that took control of the company back in January and brought on Dan and Phil to fix the mess.
IJJP trades super clean. MM's are letting her do her thing today. They must be all loaded and know next week is going to be big.
Yerboss, I have been wondering about Monsour too. I think vaping is banned in Egypt. Do you what other countries they have distribution set up in?
Minus 400 Million next week. Thus the move!
If we get our MoMo back it is possible. Today's action and news will get alot of eyes back on this thing over the long weekend, in anticipation of proof of the shares being retired.
Wow, finally a penny that is transparent to it's shareholders! Let's retire those shares and get copper!
Don't be scurd! Slap that ask! Otherwise you chase!
"Any foreseeable changes in the next 3 to 5 days" Shares to be retired from the O/S next week! And we will have the T/A to prove it!
Me thinks everyone on the sidelines is jumping back in. Anything under 20 is a steal!!
Wow who is selling now!? The reversal is just getting started!
I am sure management understands how important is to keep prices above a certain range so the remaining notes can be addressed and I am sure they have a plan and the catalysts to do this. That is why all of the toxic notes were traded out for non-toxic notes with a set price. This buys them time to arrange longer term financing without the likelyhood of another death spiral. Sideways at worse IMO, until management delivers and turns around sentiment.
I am not calling you a short. I am saying the majority of what looks like selling is actually shorting. Very obvious coordinated attacks to drive the price down. Not nessesarily bad, it's how the market works and will fuel the run back up once we get a catalyst. Probably MMs naked shorting to cover and load up cheap.
Agreed.
The market had expectations on numbers and we did not get the numbers we expected. The market reacted and the market should recover. Moving forward more realistic expectations will be provided and most likely achieved.
The majority of Ihub money does not matter long term here, it never really did. Traders and flippers just provide liquidity. If the investors that have continued to put Millions of dollars into this believed in the new business plan with new management and believed their investments would be profitable (seeing the financials before us), then chances are they will be.
None of the noteholders are likely to convert at a loss below .75 so until we go back above that number, dilution is unlikely. IMO the only one selling their .45 warrants were the old 6% senior holder dumping theirs. They were pre-paid warrants afterall. Judging by the 15 Million added to the O/S since the split I am assuming most of these have already been accounted for and will not further drive the price down. Yesterday did not seem to have much dilution if any and today's high volume probably had little to do with dilution.
Keys to moving forward:
-Long term Financing
-Retiring Convertible debt
-Cutting costs
-1st and 2nd quarter revenue growth
-Transparency from management
If they can achieve these (and according to the PR today some of these are already "behind us" and good progress has been made on others) Dan and Phil still have a strong chance of fixing the mess they were handed and providing ECIG with a bright future remaining the independent leader in the fastest growing retail segment.
These guys don't fluff, they just tell it how it is. Take solace in that if you decide to remain long.
Nice find. Thank you for sharing!
19 Million in short volume yesterday. That red volume spike we saw late yesterday was not dumping, but rather shorting. Don't be fooled into selling your shares when these short attacks happen, that is when you want to buy. Nearly all 19 Million in short volume today happened from a single timed attack in effort to push us below the 200 MA and break our support here. They did not succeed and as we reverse short covering will fuel the next run up.
Nice post. I like your reasoning. I agree that there is a reason behind everything management does or does not do... and I definitely do not doubt their experience.