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I don't mean to hog the board, I am just making up for lost time. It's perhaps 3 years since I posted anything about any of the companies I follow.
Some of you regular posters should also apply to be moderators for this board. It's healthier to have a number of moderators.
LazyBeagle a friend from Hong Kong told me there is around 328 million shares in issue at present. So I guess Walhall is correct the company is valued at $1 billion.
ACES21, I am just wondering if you now have revised your opinion on CVBT?
Personally I reckon the "story" is far from open, in fact the latest chapters are super exciting IMHO!
I guess good things ARE worth waiting for. Anyone else?
I forgot to mention that I had heard that they are about to close the $3 round. That didn't come directly, it was from one of my buddies who seems to have a handle on things. I guess the majority of the $$ came from existing Asian investors and some new Family Offices.
My source tells me that in the next few weeks there will be a series of press releases made which will put some meat on the bone regarding all the good stuff that's been going on. Fingers crossed!
Also, I think the share count is maybe 10% above the 300m figure.
I agree, Walhall. In 6 months time you might be right about the NK Sovereign Wealth Fund!!
Anyway, Thanks for all your input it is indeed an exciting time for us shareholders.
I agree with Drongo. The dilution is secondary to whatever the current price is. By the way Drongo from the accuracy of your comment I think you are anything but a Drongo (it's an Australian thing). I haven't been on the CVBT board for a while but am pleasantly surprised by the amount of new posters. By the way I think $3 is just the start of something special for Cardio.
Yep, I'm one of the runners. I didn't pick it up at the bottom but am happy with my return over a few months. Not sure if I'll get back in as yet. Let's see if it keeps dipping from the previous high.
I think if you already have a position at significantly higher prices it time to average down. It's a major climb though to get back to the halcyon days.
It's a good report. Thanks. Opinions on price potential over 12 month?
Does anyone have copies of Daniel C. Montano's Bankruptcy papers? I think its referred to as a Statement of Assets / Liabilities.
I like the Worst CEOs Ever website. Dan Montano is an even bigger crook than I imagined. I can't even begin to think of the folks who have died from Diabetic Foot Ulcers who could have been saved if he hadn't been such a megalomaniac. How can he sleep at night?
Dan Montano, CLOWN PRINCE, now on YouTube. Dan Montano becomes more (IN)FAMOUS by the day.
The latest from Worst CEOs Ever
Daniel C. Montano who was attempting to steal assets from CVBT has been outed on the WORSTCEOSEVER.COM website. He and his fellow crook, Jack Jacobs set up a company to steal CVBT's assets.
Cardiovascular Biotherapeutics (CVBT WEBSITE)
CardioVascular BioTherapeutics, Inc. seeks to develop and commercialize novel and cost effective reqenerative therapies, diagnostic techniques and delivery methods for the treatment, early detection and prevention of cardiovascular diseases caused by lack of blood flow to tissues and organs. Their therapies include:--
DIABETIC FOOT ULCERS FOR DIABETICS
HEART DISEASE
PERIPHERAL ARTERIAL DISEASE
DERMAL WOUND HEALING
DEGENERATIVE DISC DISEASE IN THE BACK
I love the new posting on WORST CEOs EVER announcing Dan “Chief Clown” Montano’s debut on Youtube. Daniel C. Montano, living proof that there’s no limit to man’s stupidity!!
Cardiovascular Biotherapeutics (CVBT)
CardioVascular BioTherapeutics, Inc. seeks to develop and commercialize novel and cost effective reqenerative therapies, diagnostic techniques and delivery methods for the treatment, early detection and prevention of cardiovascular diseases caused by lack of blood flow to tissues and organs. Their therapies include:--
DIABETIC FOOT ULCERS FOR DIABETICS
HEART DISEASE
PERIPHERAL ARTERIAL DISEASE
DERMAL WOUND HEALING
DEGENERATIVE DISC DISEASE IN THE BACK
Worst CEOs Ever
LINK
I received an email from WORST CEOs saying that they are now on Facebook. Their first target is Daniel C. Montano ( Dan Montano ) ex-CEO of Cardiovascular Biotherapeutics ( CVBT ) who was removed by shareholders in August 2014 having almost destroyed CVBT. With the help of the shareholders, Calvin A. Wallen (Chairman of the Board), Mickael A. Flaa (President) and Grant Gordon (Founder & Director). Dan Montano and 5 cronies who he had planted on the Board were removed after the Delaware courts directed a shareholder vote. Dan Montano had resisted holding a shareholder vote since 2008.
CVBT has active FDA trials in Diabetic Foot Ulcers ( Wound Healing DFU ), Severe Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) & Peripheral Artery Disease ( PAD ).
CVBT UPDATE
Is Dan Montano a Menace to Society? - THE WORST CEOs
Dan Montano isn’t only a danger to investors, he’s also a danger to the unsuspecting public and children. See below a copy of a publicly available affidavit filed in court from a Private Investigator affirming Mr. Montano’s reckless disregard for both his own children’s safety & that of others all to avoid being served with legal papers. Fortunately, despite his reckless behavior, no one was hurt in this incident.
AFFIDAVIT
The State of Nevada )
) ss
County of Clark )
I, Stephen J. Eggert, of Las Vegas, Nevada, Make Oath and say that:
I am a private investigator licensed through the State of Nevada. I was hired by Creg Hargis & Associates to provide surveillance services related to a Service of Process assignment. The Subject under surveillance was Daniel C. Montano residing at XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX.
The following is a summary of activity that occurred on Saturday, March 23, 2013:
At approximately 10: 15am, the Subject was observed departing his subdivision driving a dark blue 1990 Ford Expedition Nevada license plate xxxxxx. This vehicle is registered to Viktoryia Montano, the Subject’s current wife. The vehicle was occupied by a female, possibly the Subject’s wife and there appeared to be two other children in the rear seats of the vehicle. They departed the subdivision and traveled northbound on Durango Drive.
I made contact with the assigned Process Server who then joins the surveillance at the 215 freeway and Durango Drive. The Subject entered the 215 freeway traveling northbound.
The Subject exited the 215 freeway at Sahara Avenue in the community of south Summerlin. I continue surveillance on the Subject and it appears the Subject is not aware he is being followed. The Process Server follows in a separate vehicle.
The Subject drove into a large park by the name of Community Park in south Summerlin, 10500 Market Walk Place at the cross street of Town Center Drive.
The Subject drove down a small street which leads into the large parking area of the park. I entered the parking area in my vehicle, the Process Server enters the parking area in his vehicle. The Subject stopped to enter an open parking space at which time my vehicle is behind the Subject’s vehicle.
The Process Server pulled to the side of the Subject’s vehicle and exits his vehicle and approaches the Subject’s driver’s side vehicle window identifying himself and holding the subpoena in hand. I remained in my vehicle. At this time the Subject quickly backed up his vehicle, almost striking my vehicle. The Subject drove over a small curb area and proceeds through the parking lot consisting of approximately 200 children and adults that were at the park as part of some youth soccer leagues. The Subject began driving erratically through the parking lot at a high rate of speed. At this time I refrained from following the Subject, as did the Process Server.
The Subject was then observed exiting the parking lot area at a high rate of speed and going southbound on Town Center Drive. I followed the Subject at a safe distance in my vehicle, as did the Process Server in his vehicle. The Subject entered the 215 freeway at Sahara Avenue. The Subject began to drive at a high rate of speed with occupants in the vehicle.
At approximately 10:40am, I communicated via mobile phone with the Process Server and advised that the Subject’s speed was approaching 90 miles per hour and driving erratically at which time I advised the Process Server, based on my professional experience, to discontinue the Service attempt at this time due to the Subject’s disregard for public safety and the safety of the occupants in the vehicle.
At this time we discontinued surveillance. The Subject exited an off ramp at Summerlin Parkway.
I recommended that the Process Server discontinue all attempts to serve the subpoena at this time due to the unsafe conditions.
Under penalty of perjury under the laws of Nevada, I swear that the statements made in this document is, to the best of my knowledge, true, correct and complete.
Date
State of Nevada )
) ss.
County of Clark )
How to Turn $1.8 Billion into $40 Million
Q. How do you turn $1.8 billion to $40 million?
A. In March 2005 Cardiovascular Biotherapeutics (CVBT) was valued at $1,800,000,000. Under Dan Montano’s leadership (CEO / Chairman) it was delisted in 2012 at a value of $40,000,000.
Forbes says a CEO should above all protect investor share value
Daniel C. Montano tops our list of CEOs that fails time and again to provide returns while living off investor’s money. Now mired in legal and financial trouble, the truth about Dan Montano is finally reaching the public market where potential investors can make better and more informed decisions before putting their money at risk.
Dan Montano Loots Baraban Securities – Still Owes More Than $1.1m
Prior to his involvement with Phage Biotech, Montano was the President of Baraban Securities Inc (BSI). The parent company was the debtor in a Chapter 7 case pending in the US Bankruptcy Court Central District of California case number 91 – 85000 BR. Petitioning Creditors are informed that the bankruptcy trustee dismissed Montano for among other reasons allegedly directing a BSI employee to make a $375,000 loan for another company where Montan0 was a partner.Petitioning Creditors are informed that the BSI bankruptcy trustee also filed an adversary proceeding against Montano for looting BSI & usurping and diverting for himself the valuable relationships BSI enjoyed with its brokers, misappropriating trade secrets and engineering and ultimately destroying the business of BSI so Montano might divert and obtain the business at no cost. Specifically the BSI trustee alleged that Montano hired various unqualified friends and family members at great expense to BSI. Petitioning Creditors are informed that adversary proceeding also alleged that Montano directed BSI to enter into transactions and buy company supplies from Montano with relatives and business associates.The bankruptcy trustee prevailed in the BSI Action and the bankruptcy court entered a joint and several judgment of $595,380. 94 against Montano & Mark Voorhis, and an additional $500,000 judgment against Montano alone. Montano appealed the judgment to the bankruptcy Appellate Panel but the Panel affirmed the judgment. As of June 2004 Montano had not paid the BSI judgment and the amount of the judgment had grown to $851,113.90 jointly and several against Montano & Voorhis, and $714,762.90 against Montano alone, due to accrued interest at 4.3% per annum.
Santa's Coming!!
I've heard "through a reliable source" (unlike dmiswhining's) that they have financing organized in excess of $10m ready to put their cash into CVBT. Onwards and upwards.
I hope everyone has a great time over the festive season including the sock-puppets.
THE WORST CEO Montano Mired in financial + legal trouble, Plus Jack Jacobs lawsuit by CVBT PDF.
Dan Montano announces on LinkedIn an exciting “New Drug Treatment to Heal Diabetic Foot Ulcers”. However publicly it appears that he forgot to mention the “New Drug” actually belongs to Cardiovascular Biotherapeutics (CVBT) which he was the CEO / Chairman of until shareholders voted him and his cronies out after years of litigation and shareholder proxy campaigns. One of the cronies voted out was Jack Jacobs, his new business partner and President of Zhittya Regenerative Medicine. On November 25th 2014 a lawsuit was filed against Dr. Jacobs relating to his recent activities and the dissemination of highly confidential property rights & protected information owned by CVBT.
LINKS:
CVBT SUES JACK JACOBS
Above URL is the entire lawsuit against Jacobs by CVBT. This is public information. Every CVBT shareholder should read this.
JACK JACOBS / DAN MONTANO ATTEMPTING TO STEAL CVBT'S ASSETS
Dan Montano announces an exciting “New Drug Treatment to Heal Diabetic Foot Ulcers” which Belongs to Cardiovascular Biotherapeutics!
READ OF THE SCUMBAGS HERE
Worst CEO Website - Daniel C. Montano
got this by email. hilarious.
the address is WORST CEOs EVER - DANIEL C. MONTANO
haven't finished reading it all yet but someone has done their homework. thank Heavens Montano is finally gone.
$2.50 IMUC140222P00002500
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IMUC140222P00002500
Hey did you see that dead cat bouncing???
http://goo.gl/32e14X
Science has named Cancer Immunotherapy as the #1 breakthrough of 2013. See the under noted article & YouTube video.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/342/6165/1432.full
Where is everyone?
Who's going to the Shareholder Meet?
I'll be the one with the white carnation in my buttonhole.
Interesting...................
Another interesting article on SA..............
It clearly, yet again, delineates the significant difference between Northwest Biotherapeutics & IMUC.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1908021-reasons-to-sell-immuno-and-buy-northwest?source=email_rt_article_readmore
My mistake.........I should have said 3.6% DOWN
My mistake.........I should have said 2% DOWN
SA Article - Sorting Out Thorny Issues In The Latest Northwest Bio ImmunoCellular Controversy
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1907681-sorting-out-thorny-issues-in-the-latest-northwest-bio-immunocellular-controversy
You mean it's down 1% today..........$$$ (FOR MY PUTS)
Why Adam F*stein Will Blow Up Just Like ImmunoCellular's ICT-107
BY Street.Com’s Senior (Fifth) Columnist 12/17/13 - 08:28 AM EST
Let's squash this silly notion that I’m a serious journalist. As many of you know I’m simply a sad hack who is basically a failed Wall Street Analyst.
I hate to break the bad news to Seeking Alpha contributor Josh Ginsburg, but my innate ability to overpower & evade the truth makes me somewhat of a clown like figure puffed up by my highly developed ego. The scientific community and most of Wall Street know this and have moved on from taking me seriously to openly mocking me. Today's buzz is antibody-based cancer immunotherapy -- the PD-1s and PDL-1s of Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY_), Merck (MRK_), Roche (ROG_) and others which are showing incredible results in large clinical trials. I’m going to put the death knell on these treatments by suggesting they will be the answer in the immunotherapy market. A bit farther back but no less exciting is the work being done by academic researchers and Novartis (NVS_) with engineered T cells -- so-called CAR-T immunotherapy. Fortunately for them I’m not going to place my full weight of approval behind these particular treatments so they do have a chance of succeeding.
Last February, I ranted in great detail why data from two early studies of Northwest Bio's DCVax in patients with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) were sloppy, wrong and wildly misleading. Believe me I should know as “sloppy, wrong and wildly misleading” is my mantra. I’m not real. I’m a mirage which will vanish once Northwest Bio finally gets around to analyzing the much larger phase III study & proves that I’m a worthless hack.
Seeking Alpha's Larry "Smith on Stocks" Smith (the guy who actually is a REAL analyst unlike me) was wrong about Northwest Bio last February and made me cry like a little girl when he criticized my bit of puffery.
The bull thesis on ImmunoCellular's ICT-107 was also based on super-duper data from a small phase I study. Sixteen patients with newly diagnosed GBM were treated with ICT-107 at the prestigious Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles. The results were reportedly spectacular, including median overall survival of more than 38 months. Some ICT-107 patients were still alive five years after treatment. Historically, similar GBM patients enrolled in other, larger clinical trials only lived an average about 18 months, therefore ICT-107 be responsible for the prolonged survival benefit.
Um... no. Last week, ImmunoCellular announced negative results from its 124-patient phase II study of ICT-107 in GBM patients. Sure enough, the GBM patients treated with placebo lived about 18 months, as expected. The patients treated with ICT-107 survived only two months longer, on average.
What happened to the 38-month median overall survival data from the phase I study of ICT-107? Poof! Gone. A fantasy, just like my journalistic credentials.
Don't expect any better outcome from further bits of frippery MAD JIM allows me to post.
Adam F
Les Goldman on Fox. Worth looking at or revisiting. He comes across IMHO better than Linda Powers in that he keeps it simple & to the point. It's also the first video / interview that talks about expected dates for commercialization.
Direct is going to transform the market, again, IMHO.
I agree, nothing new. The most interesting thing from Leerink was the day before & Howard Liang's conclusion that "50% of all cancer treatment could involve immunotherapy within the next decade."
I personally believe that's a fairly conservative statement.
Predictable.............Thx
A good summary of the CLDX position EXCEPT obviously the final sentence should be Northwest Bio not Medifocus (OTC:MDFZF).
Source: Tom Meyer, Wall St. Cheat Sheet (10/1/13)
3 Small-Cap Biotechnology Stocks Making Big MovesSource: Tom Meyer, Wall St. Cheat Sheet (10/1/13)
"Investors have seen a tremendous rally in the biotechnology industry. Many stocks have been participating in the rally, but there have been a few that are especially standing out because of performance and/or new announcements."
During the past few weeks, investors have seen a tremendous rally in the biotechnology industry. Many stocks have been participating in the rally, but there have been a few that are especially standing out because of performance and/or new announcements.
Celldex Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CLDX) appears to have traded into another stratosphere. Since Sept. 20, the stock has appreciated by more than 25%. With a lot of positive press coming out about the company's pipeline, investors appear to be big believers in the company's eventual ability to treat a variety of cancer indications. Of particular importance is CDX-011, an antibody-drug conjugate that targets glycoprotein NMB (GPNMB). GPNMB is a protein overexpressed by multiple tumor types, including breast cancer and melanoma. In late 2012, the company completed a Phase 2 EMERGE study in metastatic breast cancer. The final results supported overall survival benefit in patients with high GPNMB expression.
On Sept. 23, analyst Howard Liang from Leerink Swann raised his price target for Celldex to $45. Mr. Liang expects positive updates from the company at the upcoming Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer meeting on Nov. 7. While Celldex appears to have some incredible trading momentum, investors may want to be wary of the current market capitalization, which values the company at over $3 billion. Investors looking for a cheaper play in the breast cancer space may want to consider a smaller competitor called Medifocus (OTC:MDFZF).
You forgot to include the example of ANY OTHER company who has used the term enrollment when they were referring to screening!!!!
Thanks for your concern over my short position however bearing in mind the $$$$$$$ I've made to date I'll continue to take my chances.
In 6 months time we'll see who is correct.
By the way it's yet another good day at the "office" for me. Maybe you noticed?
The Summer Street Report is on You Tube at
Intersting article on Seeking Alpha
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1727622-recent-developments-with-northwest-bio-hint-at-big-move-in-3-to-4-months?source=feed_f
http://t.co/SO9askfbxx
Recent Developments With Northwest Bio Hint At Big Move In 3 To 4 Months
Oct 3 2013, 11:48 by: Alberto Savrieno | about: NWBO
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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
The debate continues to rage as to the future of Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO). The latest volley has come in the form of a public apology to Adam Feuerstein, an NWBO bear, who claims that DCVax-L will fail, citing the evidence that successful phase III drugs usually leak by now , and DCVax-L results are still hermetically sealed and have been for years. The trial commenced in 2006.
For the last seven months NWBO has gone nowhere, pingponging between $3.15 and $4.64 since its last financing in December as news has slowed to a trickle and everyone wonders what's going on with DCVax-L and DCVax-Direct. RSI is totally flat. In technicals nomenclature, this is a coil. It means that neither side is budging, despite the heated debate.
After a long period of coiling, there is almost always a resolution when the stock turns hard one way or the other, releasing months of energy. In terms of human action, the coil can be explained as investors evenly split and unwilling to outbid the other side of the trade too far out of range, because nobody is sure what will happen. If a bull came in low, he sells at the top of the range because he is unsure if DCVax-L or Direct will succeed and just takes the short term profit. Too far below range and buyers step in because of high risk/reward ratios at the lower boundaries if DCVax-L or DCVax-Direct succeed.
It is my contention that the current round of bull/bear debate over NWBO will come to an end by January/February, and NWBO will find a new medium term trading range at pre-December levels. Before I explain why, background is necessary for those new to the stock.
NWBO
NWBO is a biotech company that focuses on the development and manufacture of cancer treatments. The company has developed its own patented technology, DCVax, which it uses to target and treat tumors. Its specific focus is on two types of cancer: brain cancer and prostate cancer.
DCVax is a system through which an immune response to the cancers in question is stimulated. It works by using a patient's dendritic cells to activate their immune system and instruct it to target tumors. In an ordinary immune response, the dendritic cell would encounter the pathogen in the body. It would engulf it, break it down, and carry it to the lymph nodes. From the lymph nodes, the now-activated dendritic cell elicits an immune response, which causes the immune system to attack any cells that are similar to that which the dendritic cell first encountered. It is a highly concentrated and a highly targeted approach to pathogen control.
Traditionally, these sorts of immune responses are initiated by introducing a form of the pathogen to the immune system, and waiting for a dendritic cell to pick it up and start the process. NWBO on the other hand takes a dendritic cell from the patient and combines it with a sample of tumor externally. This activated dendritic cell is then reintroduced into the patient, and the immune response is stimulated.
DCVax-L and DCVax-Direct
NWBO's lead candidate is DCVax-L, which is designed to treat a deadly form of brain cancer called Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM). DCVax-L is currently undergoing phase III clinical trials. Phase I/II clinical trials for the treatment showed positive results, with median overall survival rate (OS) from the time of initial diagnosis of recorded at 31.4 months for those treated wit DCVax-L, compared to 14.6 months for those treated with current standard of care (SOC). Progression free survival also improved, from 6.9 months for those that underwent current SOC treatment to 25 months for those treated with DCVax-L.
A phase III trial, which is actually a continuation of the phase I whose results will be included in the final analysis, is ongoing since 2006. Primary and secondary endpoints for the trial are OS and PGS respectively. Enrollment for the trial is expected to be complete by 2Q14.
On that front, on September 16, regulators in Germany approved the phase III trial and enrollment is now active in that country. NWBO plans to enroll at 20 German hospitals. That will bring total sites to 75, plus one in the UK. This means that each center needs to enroll only 4 to 5 GBM patients on average to complete enrollment.
The company's second pipeline product is DCVax-Direct. The treatment is billed as being able to target all inoperable solid tumors. The reason it can be used to treat inoperable tumors (and one of the treatment's biggest selling points) is that it involves injection directly into the tumor via ultrasound guidance. This means the treatment can be administered anywhere in the human body.
Phase I/II clinical trials of DCVax-Direct are underway, with initial results expected by the end of this year being that the primary endpoint is tumor regression, which happens either quickly or not at all. The news on this front is that a second site has opened in Orlando as of last week.
When the coil breaks
Back to my original contention, the DCVax-Direct initial results, expected at the end of the year, will be the reason the coil will finally break, either up or down. While press releases from the company estimate initial results at the end of the year, due to a history of delays an announcement of initial results by January-February seems reasonable. NWBO will take off in one of two directions when those initial results are announced.
We are talking about a treatment for all solid tumor cancers after all. If there is any tumor regression, NWBO's price will find a new coiling range until final results are released, which are expected by midyear 2015 according to clinicaltrials.gov.
The market for DCVax-L alone if successful will be quite large monetarily, though small in terms of patient base. A recent analysis conducted by Summer Street Research Partners suggests the market for the treatment is 12,000 in the US and EU. The same analysis reports the price for the treatment at being approximately $140K. At a 10% penetration, DCVax-L could generate over $160M for the company. Assuming steady increase in penetration over the next five years, this could grow to just short of $1B at just over 50%. By 2020, the DCVax-L could become a $2B treatment.
DCVax-Direct, if successful, will be much bigger.
Pricing Comparisons
While projections can be useful in gaining some insight into the potential market, there must be some fundamental reasoning behind them if they are to be used to justify a company's potential value. In this case, the reasoning lay in the success of similar (currently available) treatments.
The two notable immunotherapies that have gained approval over the past few years are Provenge; developed by Dendreon (DNDN) and aimed at prostate cancer, and Yervoy; developed by Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and aimed at melanoma. Provenge is priced at $93K and Yervoy at $120K. Summer Street reports that DCVax-L and NWBO's other "personalized vaccines have the potential to add substantial survival benefit with minimal side effects."
Company Valuation
The market currently values NWBO at just over $115M based on approximately 33.8M shares outstanding. Again referring to the Summer Street analysis, the research organization puts a price target on NWBO of $10.33. This target is based on an estimated EPS in 2016 of $1.02, using a 25 multiple and a discount rate of 35%. This target suggests the market currently undervalues NWBO by just under $200M.
Partnerships
One of the major driving factors in the advancement of NWBO's treatments is the partnerships the company has formed with a number of leading cancer centers worldwide. In January this year, the company received a $5.5M grant from the German government through its partnership with the Fraunhofer Society, a German research organization.
The company is also in partnership with a range of leading hospitals and university research centers across the UK, including Kings College London, which in May, became the first active trial site for DCVax-L in Europe. Both of these partnerships give NWBO access to regional manufacturing facilities, as well as industry specific expertise.
Risks
NWBO will need further financing in order to achieve success in bringing DCVax-L to market. Without the metrics on which the aforementioned valuation is based become invalid. Mitigating this risk is the fact that DCVax-L is in Phase III trials, which, if successful, could open up the product to a multi-billion dollar market. Further mitigation lies in the fact that the company is in a relatively strong financial position, with a little over $10M in cash holdings and zero debt.
Further risk lies in the nature of the cancer DCVax-L is looking to target. GBM is notoriously difficult to treat and, as a result, the outcome of the clinical trials is far from assured. While phase I/II results were positive, the unpredictable nature of invasive brain cancer means they are by no means indicative of phase III success.
But the more immediate catalyst for NWBO will be the announcement of initial results for DCVax-Direct. If there is no tumor regression for initial patients, the coil will break down. If there is, it will break out. It's not the bulls or bears that will convince anyone, leaks or no leaks aside. It's that announcement, and the stock, and its investors, are waiting for it.
Conclusion
The volley back and forth over NWBO's valuation has not broken the bulls or the bears as the recent coil continues since February. It will most likely continue until initial results for DCVax-Direct are announced. If there is any tumor regression, look for Summer Street's target of $10.33 to be within reach long term, but short to medium term traders should place a more conservative target of the pre-December dilution high of $6.40.
And if you don't want to pick a side in the debate, one can always use options to straddle the January 2014 $5 strike, assuming the initial announcement will be made by then.