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They want to be exempted even though they've been benefiting for the better part of a decade.
They've put a US expansion on hold due to this tariff costing them an extra nickel on CpW.
Here's an idea. Utilize the new tax policy and expand anyways in 2018 and write it off.
These guys are like children throwing a tantrum. It's pathetic.
First Solar wins regardless. Watch for US market share to climb at an accelerated rate.
On the tariffs.......
I'm struggling to find another company that benefits more than First Solar from these actions.
Any company really.
The spin has been mostly negative, and there's reason for that.
Jobs will be lost, yes. Mostly on the installation side. Projects will get delayed or shelved altogether. It hurts the industry as whole.
For now.
The most important thing this tariff does is level a historically skewed playing field.
China, and most of the companies complaining about this tariff, have benefited immensely over the last five years from a market flooded with cheap, less effective, imported cells and modules.
C-Si can't hang with thin film PV in the long term. That's why China has been relentlessly dumping. To kill the thin film market in the US.
Well, that's over now.
First Solars tech has always proven more reliable long term.
The trade off is slightly lower conversion efficiency.
It's what has allowed First Solar to survive a volatile market.
Series 6 is a watershed moment for First Solar.
Combined with these tariffs and the lower corporate tax rate, it's safe to say First Solar is positioned quite nicely.
This is going higher. $100 is in play this year, and there was a time, not that long ago, that I never pictured saying that again.
All imo of course.
I've set my maker hooks deeply into IPIX, and am moving into spice rich desert.
I'll show myself out.
Can't disagree with anything here.
Took my first position about 5 years ago on the back of those mouse xenograft photos and data from pre-clinical P.
That was enough for me then, and I've seen Zero reason to alter that perspective since. In fact, quite the opposite. I've added substantially over that time, gladly, and with vigor.
Its like you said, predetermined.
All that's left is the formalities.
One last thing. K being the wildcard now, in this triumvirate, is astonishing, especially with hints of efficacy being seen.
Think about that.
Management deserves kudos.
Your lips to gods ear, brother.
"Why not put some earnest $ ($50-100m upfront) toward Brilacidin that, in humans, put up some impressive #s and pics showing Remission?"
Great analysis.
By your reasoning, no startup would ever get off the ground.
It's called raising funds. Look into it.
This is a great post. Really simplifies the outcomes.
Those IGA 0's are Very intriguing. Not that the rest of the data set isn't.
2 weeks for B data, a couple more months for P, and K hanging out there to wrap up the year with a bow.
Very exciting times.
Same here. Alas! Not today.
Wanted to ask the very same thing.
Admittedly, I'm on the fence in the whole naked shorting argument. It seems very doable, and, more importantly, profitable, if true, but I just don't know.
Tomorrow is a VERY interesting day, in many arenas, and CTIX volume/sp will be a welcome indicator to the above argument.
Big volume/Big SP move might just make naked shorting more of a reality to me.
Conversely, if it's same old same old tomorrow and Friday, I might consider it a nail in the naked shorting coffin.
I'm thinking that possibly answering this question might be a big reason for the name change.
Exciting times.
Yes! Whether they exist or not, this move helps to highlight.
Also helps to possibly alleviate any negativity associated with the CTIX brand.
While unexpected, I like the change.
All things considered, I'd say we held up remarkably well today.
Markets look to be turning on the current administration. I'd expect more days like today as markets correct.
Tax reform-Not happening
Healthcare-Not happening
FDA regulation reforms-Not happening
Market is usually ahead of the game. Take that for what it's worth.
This is a great write up.
Crams a lot of good info into a short read.
Good for sharing.
Thanks SLC.
If the OTC is the Wild West, then the manipulators have been running roughshod lately.
Good news is, CTIX just got deputized, and is a crack shot.
"I'm yer huckleberry." -Leo
Bless the maker and his water.
Bless his coming and his going.
May his passage cleanse the world.
Hi SLC. Good to see you.
Whelp, another instance where saying nothing would've been a better move.
Gotta admit, even I'm frustrated, and my patience is wearing thin.
Guess my 5 year plan is a 10 year plan instead.
Oh well.
Are you gonna load then too?
Have you ever held shares?
Genuinely curious.
"I was planning on holding my shares for the inevitable wealth they would create, but after reading what a random commentator with a squirrel avatar said, I decided to unload my position." -No one ever
Not sure how you got this info....
But you're absolutely right.
P is being purchased.
Trading halt on Tuesday coming.
CTIX will be on the Nasdaq by May with a share price north of $10.
Mark it, then dismiss it as the ramblings of a drunken CTIX long.
I don't even really disagree with you.
I'm a FSLR bull for life, but the S6 timeline has already been laid out. Minus inking a S6 deal, which very well could happen, I'm not seeing a ton of upside in the next year.
I think the S6 deals start coming once the technology is proven.
S6 in general, is a huge improvement over their existing panels, just in form factor alone. The guys installing panels in the field are already used to the 4x6 modules, so moving to that is a huge win.
As for the tech, the underlying process doesn't change much, it simply gets bigger. I'm fully confident they can pull it off, but the timeline is insanely tight.
I'll continue saying what I've always said, FSLR will be a winner for those with patience and foresight.
Thanks for the replies.
Depends on your goals I suppose.
Long term, 2-5 years, I think the company will be fine and those share price estimates are fair.
Short term, I think it goes lower.
You've got 18-24 months of reduced capacity, reduced throughout, and all on a product, series 4, that's commercial viability is questionable.
Oil is a dying giant.
A giant still, but bleeding out slowly.
Still room to make money for sure, but the bottom is much harder to spot.
How do you figure?
The future has never been more uncertain for FSLR.
Big plans for sure, but still need to execute them.
Fell through $30.
Not sure where bottom is now but swing trades galore.
Probably up 5% tomorrow.
Data shows B works. No surprise there.
One of my favorite parts though, is this:
"Patient Quality of Life (as assessed by the Short Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire, SIBDQ)—notable improvements in all 12 patients; 50 percent of patients in Cohort A (3 of 6) and 80 percent of patients in Cohort B (5 of 6) reported significant improvements of 15 points to more than 50 points higher on the 70-point SIBDQ scale."
Improvement in all 12 subjects according to the subjects themselves.
Huge.
I don't know what SP will do today, and I've given up guessing, but this news again proves that B works as advertised.
I like that, and this is just as good:
"Following the information released on March 8, 2017, disclosing preliminary efficacy and safety data as part of interim analysis from the first two cohorts (12 patients) in the UP/UPS trial, Cellceutix has received numerous requests from various interested parties to provide added context on Brilacidin and its potential in IBD."
Hmmm, who could those interested parties be?
Appreciate the enthusiasm
But we don't know for sure that it was JnJ looking at the biofilm properties of B.
That was speculation.
Unless you've seen something that I haven't, which is always possible.
Thanks BH.
Again, I believe 500m for P is ridiculously low, and sincerely believe your numbers are closer to the truth.
I'm really just trying to temper my own expectations. Let's face it, CTIX represents the biggest "Castle in the sky" for many of us, and that's dangerous.
The 500m represents the low end of the potential scale, so that's where I like to start.
"Would 500m for P be beneficial to the company and shareholders?"
Answer- Yes.
"Is it ideal?"
No way.
Again, tons of variables, but I don't think Leo parts with P for less than 2b, assuming the results are good. If they're great results, it could get very real, very quickly around here.
I always appreciate your posts. Thanks for the reply.
Could be, yes.
NR says 500m after a successful p2b, and I don't disagree with that either.
Pinning down what BP will pay, and what CTIX will accept, is like trying to put a badger into a burlap sack.
Another fluid aspect of any deal, is how it's structured financially. Here though, is where CTIX has some wiggle room.
Imagine what 500m (sale of P) in the bank does. Funds everything. At least, everything currently being investigated. Even though 500m is too cheap for all of P imo, the value that it would immediately add would be ten fold.
But, is that necessary?
50m upfront for a P partner, with back end of 100m+, might get the same results, just not as quickly.
Now B absssi is funded and eventually sold for surely a higher valuation that 500m.
That's what I love about this company. Lots of options, lots of chances.
Hate myself, but I agree with you.
I also disagree with you, so thank god for that.
Agree that P is up for sale, straight up. I'm expecting 2b for and outright sale, although I wouldn't be shocked by a little lower an offer, or a much higher offer. I'm trying to be (somewhat) realistic about this. Many here think 2b for P is an insult, and I don't disagree. Again, trying to be realistic here.
Disagree that CTIX wants to develop B past a P3 for any indication. Leo has said as much. They're not trying to become BP. They just want to maximize value and sell/partner. Once cash is in the bank from sale of P, and B ABSSSI P3 starts, BP will gobble it up and take it to market. Royalties on B ABSSSI will be quite lucrative, and therefore a must.
All speculation naturally.
A couple hundred million would certainly open some eyes.
Still seems kind of low to me.
Always the optimist though.
Lot of good info here:
https://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Guidances/UCM515143.pdf
Although it does not address your specific question. I'm not sure where the 40cm comes from, but I'm guessing it's standard. At the very least, it provides a good control method.
From link above (apologies for formatting):
C. Assessment of Mucosal Healing vs. Endoscopic Appearance of the Mucosa 314
315 Mucosal healing (based on the Mayo Endoscopy subscore) has been included as a secondary
316 endpoint in many clinical trials. In many clinical trials, mucosal healing has been defined as
Mayo Endoscopic subscore of less than or equal to 1 point. However, a claim of mucosal
318 healing would not be supported through endoscopy that provides only an assessment of the
319 visual appearance of the mucosa. Any claim related to findings on endoscopy, in the absence of
320 validated histological assessment of the mucosa, would be limited to the endoscopic appearance
321 of the mucosa.
322
323 There are currently limitations of histologic scoring systems and of community standards for
324 definitions of histologic improvement; thus, there are currently no criteria for histological
325 assessment of mucosal healing. Sponsors intending to pursue a claim of mucosal healing should
326 discuss their proposed development plan with FDA. Histologic evaluations of biopsy specimens,
327 when obtained, should be conducted centrally. Charters that standardize biopsy and histology
328 procedures and assessments (e.g., scoring for histology) should be drafted early in drug
329 development and shared with FDA for comment. Methods to address discrepancies in
330 assessments between site and central readers should be prespecified within the protocols.
331 Grading scales and scoring techniques should be discussed with FDA. Use of measures that are
332 not validated are unlikely to support labeling claims.
Agreed wholeheartedly.
In many ways, improving a patients quality of life, is the single best thing a drug can accomplish.
Needless to say, this usually happens due to a clinical response to the drug being tested. If a person says their QOL has improved, chances are good, the drug has met its endpoints.
Admittedly, I'm a notorious table pounder when it comes to CTIX, but lately I've been going through tables at an alarming rate. These prices are insane when considering the multiple indications, and lack of trial failures in cellceutixs' past.
She'll run. Oh yes. She'll run.
"Don't we need some defined starting conditions for the participants and some statistical measures of progress in order to better appreciate what we're being told?"
I believe the endoscopic exam will be the most telling data. It compares pre/post trial rectum and mucosa at 40cm depth.
Existing data suggests that endoscopic exam will show similar results.
I certainly wouldn't be mad, but that is literal peanuts for what we offer.
7-8B minimum, right now.
100% chance that the next news we hear on P has a partnership attached to it.
All of this fretting that results aren't good is useless. Leo has never withheld info before, and he's not about to start now.
A deal is coming. It's never been more obvious.
Forrest meet trees.
I'm thrilled.
No P news this week leads me to further believe that something much deeper is in play here.
Many were looking at a mid year partnership being inked, but the lack of news, especially when data is certainly available, makes me think it will be much, much sooner.
Today's K news is just another tantalizing look into what more and more appears to be a legit cancer fighting drug. Hard to not be excited about this P2.
Meanwhile, B is simply waiting on that sweet sweet upfront cash, before it literally cruises to market. How's that for rosey?
I'm buying all I can afford right now.
MT
Couple things:
I'm happy to see a fairly solid floor put in here in the low 30's. It's encouraging and hopefully points to everything already being priced in, as previously mentioned.
That happiness though, is underlined with a creeping uncertainty, at least in The near term.
I'm not sure if retail quite grasps how much of an undertaking this is, and how much a make or break situation it is.
To be fair, and I've never wavered on this sentiment, (although I've been wrong on general price moves many, many times) First Solar will do what they say they can do regarding S6, and working from that assumption, I am confident that they will remain a market leader in thin film solar.
It's just getting there that has me convinced we haven't seen a true bottom yet.
I hope I am wrong. I really do.
As far as the current administrations stance on solar, thus far we've seen much posturing, without much actual action, on a number of big issues. Whether it's just partisan politics, infighting, or general malcontent, whatever the administration wants to do, it clearly won't be easy.
Did everyone already know that?
That's funny because it was never PRd. It was sleuthed out by this board. So everyone HERE knew, yes.
Just sayin.