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Quote: <Here is a 30,000 ft view of the issues and possible solutions for Amarin…>
Nice summary. Worth hoping that management (who seem to be consistently out of ideas) read & adopt.
As I understood it they can’t buy-back at all. As a UK company they must have accumulated profits to do so, otherwise it is against UK company law, and they have never made a profit.
If they were to take over our case might they (are they able to) then simply decide to withdraw it?
Another Baker Bros company. They do seem to have a magic touch.
Du decided that the generics would infringe (good) but that the relevant patents were invalid (v. bad).
For the new action we are all optimistic that Hikma will be found to infringe (v. good). What is the risk that the patents involved this time could likewise be found to be invalid (v.v. bad)?
Anyone like to guess what John Thero meant by “private cabbage” in his 3rd paragraph?!
The only thing that Thero embraces are trees; when he walks into them. Which he seems to do often.
How many years of US patent protection have we lost through this and what will it actually cost? Given that revenues are currently rising and we won’t lose all of US sales even if/when the generics come in, can someone do the maths? I would expect the overall market to grow quicker with marketing costs surely reducing alongside. While this is not a clever result, the price drop feels overdone and is surely just a stampede for the door from investors who were hoping for a sky-high BO.
Like many, I was holding on the call while the previous case wrapped up. I am sure that I heard a lot of discussion about Novo in the tail-end of those OA but didn’t really pay much attention to it.
Did anyone else hear likewise?
The judges will be making their decision based upon the written submissions, the law and the facts as established by the DC. OA at 3 minutes each way with a 2 minute sum up can hardly be expected to encompass the entire case.
Remember Singer in his arguments (his brief and OA) has to show why the DC were wrong. H&R don’t need to show that the DC was right, only that Singer is wrong. So there being no questions of their guy is not unexpected.
Sure that was ugly, and if the decision is based only on today then we are in trouble. But I wouldn’t give up faith just yet.
Baker Bros average price per share stated at $8.93.
Really?! Makes me feel not so bad after all.
Clearly. But I would have expected the motion to consolidate (as on PACER) to be to consolidate both Hikma and Dr Reddys.
As it is stated to consolidate only Hikma it looks as if Dr Reddys is being treated differently ie not consolidated.
Does it matter that Hikma & Amarin are applying to consolidate but Dr Reddys are not? Or are they doing so separately?
Thx
Obvious when you read it!
When (assuming) AMRN get favourable judgment what does it actually cost the infringers? Surely not just the legal fees. That isn’t much of a sanction against deliberate patent abuse.
I happened to be looking at the iHub Trades and saw it in the list there as green at 18.19 UK time which I think is actually 13.19 EST.
A block of 600,000 shares went thru’ at 14.19. Price (@ 20.4something) didn’t even twitch. Anyone else see it?
His top “under the radar” small-cap tip with a target $30 price
If you can’t take the heat...
Remember those 50million short shares (or however many they are today) have to be bought back. Buying them back from other short-sellers transfers the problem but won’t cure it for them. The only way they can fix it is for the longs to give in to FUD and bail out. The institutions are unlikely to do so as they see the long-term prospects. That’s why they were willing to lend their shares after all.
People should stop all this “let’s fire JT” garbage and be patient. Of course it’s upsetting to see your shares worth less. But they will soon be worth a lot more with or without a buy-out.
Max pain is $22
So they are almost $60m down. Bet they are thrilled!
Why don’t you repeat verbatim the Amarin request? See if yours gets filed as quickly.
So that they can come back on Monday and walk it down to $17 or worse?
Seriously, trashing 20% of the market value of the company to raise a cash reserve so as to be able to “hit the ground running” is both offensive and inept. $280mm wasn’t enough and if so then they got the last raise wrong.
JT may well care for the long-term future of Amarin but he sure doesn’t care for the loyal longs. What a clear signal that the proper share price should be $18 and anything above that is froth.
Clearly no BO on the horizon. The cash raise makes sense for GIA.
There is nothing wrong with this guidance.
Except that the “all-knowing” consensus of analysts was expecting growth from their 2018 analyst forecast of $221m (guidance now $224-228m) to analyst forecast of $418m (guidance now $350m).
How could the analysts have realistically expected 90% y.o.y growth?
So the current guidance of 55% y.o.y is considered an under-performance. And merits more red after the trashing of the PPS over the last month?!
They expect $249m in cash, no debt and $90m remaining of royalty financing, $72m in accounts receivable & $56m in inventory.
All of which is very positive indeed.
Those who don’t think so should sell & go elsewhere rather than whining here.
How do you see that the entire 7.7million shares belong to the funder of Corsicanto?
If that was the case (& it may be) then why wouldn’t the $30m of convertible funding have been issued directly to Amarin by those investors rather than by Corsicanto which is a wholly owned subsidiary?
Would seem more likely that Amarin control the timing of sale of those shares into the market. They have to pay something to the founders of Corsicanto but not necessarily all or even most of the current value.
The strike price was weighted average in excess of $5.05 for 20 days. That would imply a target PPS on exercise of maybe $10 (someone can calculate the break-even price at which one or the other would exercise).
So value in the PPS above that would accrue substantially to Amarin. In other words this adds value to shareholder funds. And ability to raise cash without doing a secondary.
Surely Corsicanto can now just sell those 7.7m shares in the market which would raise circa $150m. It then pays off whoever it owes for the $30m funding that enabled it to make the original loan (& whatever they require) with the surplus going to Amarin.
So isn’t it is a fund-raising dilution event equivalent to a secondary but where Amarin can manage the pricing?
Do you have easy access to the rationale for the “no” voters
The 6% rise in PPS so far today is roughly equal to 40% of what my AMRN holding was worth on Friday.
This is surreal but nice payback for 6 years holding.
Anyone have an idea as to what the “Confidential Treatment Order” might relate to?
2.9 million shares sold since March 31 "at the market" at $8.24. That's an indication of where Kim & Co see fair value for the PPS.
This offering will doubtless be at a discount to that but for longs will be ok given the total cash funds INO will shortly have together with those from Apollo.
Great upbeat announcement and lots more information over the next 3 days of presentations. And yet the PPS heads south on increased volume.
I know the mantra of "buy the rumour, sell the news" but this is really strange.
Sets out a process for consultation over proposed approval of 2 communications a year. And each party bears its own costs. Not impressive for the 6 month delay.
With you on that.
The fact is that every time the PPS goes up those traders looking for a few cents dump their shares & bring it down again.
When we get more serious long term holders the PPS will start to climb & then it won't stop for a while.
Will there be any updates on VGX-3100 ahead of 2018? That would get rid of this mid-price messing.
Why is it that every time you post a link to an upbeat article the PPS takes a dive? Maybe we need some bad news so that the PPS can start climbing back to the upbeat broker estimates: $20 isn't it?
Was fascinated to read the "Full Prescribing Information"
Section 8.3 about pregnant rats has some nasty sounding consequences, which I guess is to be expected. But it's strange that section 8.2 is completely missing!
I must have an error on my app.
I carry on seeing 5%, 6% & 7% price movement for INO but my phone mostly show this as red. Anyone know how to get it to show in green like it should be?
We seem to be doing well today. Probably because people are recognising that BlackRock owning 6.9% or almost 5million shares is an indication that there is more in this than the short sellers would have you think.
http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20160126/ABKYL222G222H2Z2222N2CZZ526DZ2A2Y282