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Hi Folks,
Would appreciate your technical analysis for $EMW. Buy, sell, or hold and why? Thanks!
It indeed does BleeckerStreet. TY for the link, mate.
Merry Christmas,
Spending Bill Extends Exemptions from TSP Withdrawal Penalty for Some Federal Employees
http://blogs.fedsmith.com/2015/12/18/spending-bill-extends-exemptions-from-tsp-withdrawal-penalty-for-some-federal-employees/
Some serious deflation is going on at the wholesale level. See the attached chart of the CRB Index.
Here are some facts about the CRB:
The index is comprised of 19 commodities Aluminum, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Lean Hogs, Live Cattle, Natural Gas, Nickel, Orange Juice, RBOB Gasoline, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar, and Wheat.
The index trades on the ICE Futures Exchange.
HISTORY
Founded in 1957, the CRB Index has a long history as the most widely followed index of commodities futures. As markets have evolved, the CRB has undergone periodic updates – the latest occurring in 2005. Updates include:
• Component Changes: Over the years, commodities including eggs, oats, lard, rubber, potatoes and wool have been dropped and replaced by more liquid and significant contracts.
• Weighting: The 10th revision (2005) included a weighting change from equally weighted components to a 4-tiered grouping system designed
to reflect the significance of each commodity:
– Energy: 39%
– Agriculture: 41%
– Precious Metals: 7%
– Base/Industrial Metals: 13%
US Dollar: Headwind or Tailwind?
The U.S. dollar has been on a tear in recent months, storming higher against a number of other currencies throughout the globe. But the strength in the dollar is a double-edged sword: Although it benefits consumers in some ways, it can hurt large, multinational corporations in C Fund and negatively affect their stock prices as a stronger U.S. dollar means weaker profits for some big, multinational U.S. corporations.
The rising dollar can cut into profits at U.S. corporations selling goods and services abroad in a couple of ways. First, U.S. companies operating abroad are paid in a foreign currency, so when these companies bring home foreign revenues, the conversion back to U.S. dollars means profits are worth less. The second issue is a longer-term concern: A stronger dollar means those goods and services are more expensive for foreign buyers, which could eventually curb demand for U.S. products.
The impact of the strong dollar is felt most by large-cap stocks in C Fund that do a lot of business overseas. "In general, 40 percent of earnings from S&P 500 companies come from international sources, and hence a strong dollar will be a headwind for those multinational companies with significant business overseas," says Omar Aguilar, senior vice president and chief investment officer of equities at Charles Schwab Investment Management.
TSP stock investors looking to reduce the potential influence of the stronger dollar on their portfolios should consider a shift into mid-cap or small-cap stocks when the dollar is falling, i.e., S Fund.
It appears "Dollar bulls" are starting to take a break. Since hitting a new 11-year high in March, the U.S. Dollar index has taken a pause from its massive rise. I've seen some analysts note the U.S. dollar could be vulnerable to a modest pullback in the short term, since expectations for the timing of the first interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve have been pushed to later this month amid signs of slightly weaker-than-expected labor market growth.
Dicey times for sure, BleeckerStreet. TY for posting that info.
C, I, and S Fund intermediate charts are negative and the corresponding short-term charts are turning positive. Think I'll sit with 25% C Fund and 75% G Fund until the current situation shakes out.
Fundamental View Why the Rubber Band Might be at an Extreme
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-are-more-overvalued-now-than-at-2000-and-2007-peaks-2015-12-11?link=MW_popular
C Fund Regression to the Trend Chart
#msg-88600053
When to Buy S Fund for the Biggest Bounce
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-to-buy-small-cap-stocks-for-the-biggest-bounce-2015-12-04?dist=beforebell
TY TFN, I also like to see what others are using relative to their charting settings.
Good info BleeckerStreet--TY
Happy Thanksgiving to You!
The good part of this situation, Jahvik, is you can always hop on another train.
According to this article, S & C Funds should do well in 2016 given the Fed doesn't screw it up and tighten too fast.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-19/history-shows-slow-and-steady-is-best-rates-mantra-for-stocks
thanks for the additional info and link baja6string
Good points baja6string...thanks for the reminder
Check these references as well:
#msg-88600053
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html
Jahvik, may the Force be with you!
why-you-shouldnt-buy-small-cap-stocks-until-2016
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-shouldnt-buy-small-cap-stocks-until-2016-2015-11-06
Jahvik,the way I'm looking at it the intermediate trend is up and the short-term trend is overbought. I'm planning to wait for a correction in the short-term trend, and then jump back in after the correction peters out.
P/Es as of 30 Oct 15
Russell 2000--90
Nas 100--23
C Fund--23
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html
With the inclusion of many of the Russell 2K stocks in S Fund, any correction therein just might be the deep.
The Greatest Disconnects EVER?
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/greatest-disconnects-ever-73994