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I had planned to watch an episode or two of Monty Python's Flying Circus this afternoon but first decided to catch up on the recent postings here. Well, I certainly wasn't disappointed. While it didn't have the nostalgic aspect to it the experience was filled with an equal amount of silly nonsense. Thank you all for the entertainment.
It's been asked why someone would make the emotional decision to sell when this stock takes a dive. I think that the answer is in the question. It IS emotional, and that's probably the downfall of many who invest. I'm not immune to it. There was a time when I thought IDCC would skyrocket and make my fortune - and I damn near lost my shirt. Eventually, the investment paid off (barely) and I felt awfully lucky to get my money back plus a little bit more.
It's also been posted that it's predictable that nothing short of blowout earnings will cause a sharp drop in share price. That does seem to be true, but why not use that to your advantage? I'm not very wealthy but I had 500 shares in my Roth IRA and I sold them a few weeks ago at $79. It was a bit of a profit and, while I kind of wanted to hang on until I could snag the dividend, I figured that nothing big would happen before earnings and I'd have the opportunity to buy back in on the dip. I did, at $75. I could have been wrong big-time and lost out on a lot of money, but that's just the risk we take, especially with this company.
I'm not very nervous about buying back in, though. The downside doesn't seem very large, and the upside is still there. We'll see what happens, and I'll have to live with my decisions, just as all of you will.
Bratkowski
Tough day for IDCC. I sold most of my holdings for a little over $90 back in, what was it, December of 2016? Of course I was kicking myself when it was over 100 a month later. That's just the way these things go, though.
I've kept an eye on the company since then and when I saw the plunge today I figured I'd try to grab a few shares at sale prices. And I did, but I'm kicking myself again for not waiting until they would have been under $70 - I bought at $73.20. So it goes.
What was kind of interesting about the day was that I thought I'd check out the IHub board again to see what insight might be offered. Absolutely deja vu. It's uncannily like watching a daytime soap opera and then coming back to it a year later to see the same actors voicing the same lines and grievances. Sort of makes one want to say "You're still on about that? C'mon, dude, get over it and get on with your life!"
Human nature can be hard to figure sometimes.
Thank you, submar. It's always a pleasure to read thoughts which are based in reality.
As to what other posters expect from the company, your guess is as good as mine. I get a sense, though, that there are a lot of folks who purchase some shares of stock and then sit back and wonder why it hasn't made them rich yet. It certainly can't be their fault, so it must be someone else's. Management, market-makers, shorts, the government - and I'll never understand how anyone could think that such a poorly run company would be a good place to invest their money.
By the way, posts such as yours will be mostly ignored because it isn't what others want to hear. Alternative facts (sorry, I mean alternative opinions) are generally not well received.
I was all set to try to insert some rationality into what is, at times, a very unreasonable discussion. I'd planned to discuss the history of the company, the nature of its business, and the fact that it has always been a fairly risky investment.
There was a memory, though, that kept coming back to me, a segment of a TV show from 40+ years ago:
Irish-Catholic priest: "I guess I'll have to do as the Good Book says, and go from the presence of the foolish man when thou perceivest not in him the lips of knowledge."
Archie Bunker: "What's that supposed to mean?"
Priest: "It means don't waste your time arguing with an idiot."
Oh my goodness. Please, nokiashill, stick with this board. The comments you make are of immeasurable benefit to me. I particularly liked your no doubt intentional misspelling of one word. "amlost" just seems so apropos.
Cheers
I try to avoid online venues in which anyone with a keyboard and an opinion is free to share thoughts. Still, I am a shareholder of IDCC and occasionally get a bit of useful information from the posts on this board.
More than that, though, is the entertainment provided. Petty bickering I can do without, but some of the screaming (with liberal use of caps lock) about the total lack of competence and integrity in the company's management is somewhat amusing.
What I probably will never be able to figure out is why anyone would invest (or remain invested) in a commercial venture that is run by lazy, greedy fools. Just to have something else to complain about?
Thank you, la-idcc-fan. Excellent information, and a reminder that it isn't quite as simple as it might seem to some.
"Management received it's raise, did any of you other shareholders/owners receive your raise? Check must be in the mail. Oh, that's right, what we got was a decline in the share price from $102 to $82. It takes B$ $s for management to come in to meeting with their hands out after that! Go ahead and blast my comments but I believe I pay for the privilege to speak my mind. Proud of our engineers and employees! Demand more from our management and licensing team!!!!"
I certainly wouldn't want to dispute your careful reasoning but, um, isn't this the same management and licensing team that in less than five years got us an increase in the share price from $25 to $102 in the first place?
"IMO, if you believe in IDCC, stay on. If not, there are other companies out there that you can invest in without keep repeating the same old negatives here everyday. If I lose my $$ here, it is my own business and I do not need advice from any widower..AMHO"
Well, orientbull, I probably wouldn't have phrased it quite that way, but I'm in complete agreement. Making a poor financial decision - which I've done far too often - is one's own responsibility. To attack the competence of people whose job responsibilities and challenges are far beyond my even understanding them does not seem very rational to me.
Of course, though, rationality also does not seem to be one of the strong points of homo sapiens.
So darn easy, and they're not even bothering to try! Yep, with a proper CEO who'd be willing to clean house this company would be raking in billions of dollars every year.
So, who should that bum Merritt be replaced with?
Indeed, Mr. Britt, my spelling is not always perfect, and, to my great financial detriment, I also don't have a college degree.
It has been my experience, however, that taking the effort to express one's opinions clearly and concisely makes them considerably more likely to be taken seriously by others.
Yes, I would also recommend a calm approach.
And, for what it's worth, proper spelling and punctuation in one's submission might just help to get it answered.
dsteeler, my comment wasn't directed toward you. I haven't ridden this horse for quite as long as you, and my hair is white and thinning as well, but I believe it has more to do with anno domini than this particular investment.
Fifteen or twenty years ago IDCC was a pretty long shot to even survive, much less become the stable, dividend-paying entity it is today. The company's future seems bright to me, and if I didn't think that I'd find somewhere else to put my money.
Best,
Bratkowski
"IMHO, there are some folks that truly need to sell their position in Interdigital stock before they lose all their faculties to the on going stress of IDCC stock ownership."
Interesting thought. Do you think, though, that perhaps it might be too late?
I apologize if this a misinterpretation of the thoughts expressed. I don't see, though, how an all-out litigation war would produce any results other than increased legal expenses and the potential for painful losses in the court system. I'm always willing to listen to a reasonable argument against my point of view, however.
Forgive me if I don't understand you, but I'm still interested in learning how this company could, or should, be better managed.
Specifics would be most appreciated.
Perhaps if there was more specific information as to how the company should be run I might be more inclined to agree. Is it simply signing more licenses, no matter the terms?
Just curious.
Disgraceful, indeed.
That Huawei was taken to the mat and only netted IDCC hundreds of millions of dollars is hard to believe. Why waste all that time and money on litigation and negotiation when potential licensees are more than willing to cough up huge amounts of cash right away?
I confess that I just don't get it.
"most shareholders have great profits in the last 18 months"
Thank you, Mr. Samuel. This is a fact which is often not appreciated. Rational thoughts always seem to be in short supply, and it's a pleasure to encounter one.
IMO
IDCC's entire board and management need to be removed. They sit on their hands and collect their bonuses while we, the owners of the company, have had to endure many years of ineptitude from the "first in class" licensing team, lack of information from the CEO about confidential agreements, a mere tripling of the stock value in the past five years, and a paltry 200 percent increase in the regular quarterly dividend.
That's a pretty poor performance, and it's time to bring IDCC back from the brink of disaster.
IMO
jist, I'm going to respectfully disagree with you.
I believe that IDCC's management has done a pretty good job in recent years. They seem to have a balanced approach to keeping things going and growing the company at the same time.
The stock buybacks have been integrated with the initiation of a dividend, then a doubling of the dividend, and continued support of the innovation which made the company viable.
I don't buy the idea that the repurchase of stock is simply a short-term benefit to the directors and managers of a company. If I felt that the bigwigs of IDCC were not acting in the best interests of the company I'd find some other place to put my money.
Quote from the article:
"Share buybacks may remove capital from the company, but when they raise the stock price, they enrich the boss."
Um, forgive me if I'm being dense, here, but isn't raising the stock price what we want them to do?
I'd love to see Merritt and the other top management get rich because that means I'm making money, too.
Pets-
The term "insurance" is probably not the best to use in this situation. The value of the shares you hold will always be determined by the market price and there's nothing that can be done about that.
What I was referring to was buying put options to counter some of the downside risk. This morning I purchased 10 put options (each option represents 100 shares) at a strike price of $42.50 which will expire November 21. I paid $1.60 per option for a total of $1600. If the court decision goes against IDCC and the price drops below $40.90 I'll be ahead on the trade and will make up some of the lost value of my long shares. Otherwise I'll be out the $1600 but won't have lost as much sleep worrying about the outcome of the trial.
Having said that, I can tell you from personal experience that dealing in options is a risky thing. This is one of those situations in which I believe the share price will take a big swing one way or the other. I hope it's to the upside.
Someone posted the other day that it would be a good idea to buy insurance, and I wholeheartedly concur.
Some of you might not like to hear this but legal proceedings have gone against IDCC so many times in the past, and it would be foolish to ignore the possibility that it might happen again here. The company is now into a jury trial and there will be a definite decision soon (or, perhaps less likely, a settlement). Experience tells me that whichever way it goes the stock will take a big swing one way or the other and it's a perfect opportunity to make a gamble on the upside while getting some fairly cheap coverage on the downside. For me, it's a straddle weighted toward a positive outcome but I'm going to make sure that I have some November $42.50 puts in hand, just to cover my losses should things go wrong. I'll consider it a couple grand well spent.
And, to those who might want to accuse me of spreading FUD, I've been long in this company for ten years and I sincerely hope that the jury awards IDCC huge amounts of money for infringement.
Good luck to all.
"Anybody have any guesses on what Apple owes for unlicensed shipments before and after the license expired?
LG since their license expired?"
There's really no need to guess. Apple and LG owe nothing until they agree to an amount (via a license) or they are determined to owe something by the courts. History has shown that revenue from past infringement is likely to be much less than what IDCC shareholders would think appropriate - well, this IDCC shareholder, at any rate.
I feel a lot better about this investment than I did a few years ago but I have to keep reminding myself that when I get involved in the IP world it's still something of a crapshoot.
Fair enough. But if you throw out a statement like that you have to expect to be tweaked just a bit. No hard feelings, ok?
Best of luck.
Excellent! I think I need to move in your direction as far as the greed thing goes...
It doesn't look like it. Good observation.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=IDCC+Interactive#symbol=IDCC;range=my
Say, isn't there someone out there who should be contacting the Vatican to schedule an audience, renting an ocean-going rowboat, and practicing puckering his lips? : - )
And, since it appears we're allowed to brag on our options today, for once I lucked into some good timing. I bought June 40s at forty-five cents and June 35s at $1.25 early this year (out of desperation, mostly). Sure, only ten contracts of each but I'm finally ahead in that game. No gripes here.
Best of luck to all of us - and, at the risk of offending anybody, I'm hoping we can make some good money here soon and stop obsessing over this company.
I apologize. Again, no personal offense was intended.
I don't mean this to be any kind of personal attack, you just happen to be the latest to post in this vein.
But, I've gotta ask, if you think that the management is incompetent, why are you investing money here? I want to hit the jackpot just like everyone else, but if IDCC doesn't do it for me it's because I made bad decisions. If I thought Bill Merrit and the board didn't know what they were doing I'd sell out in a minute. Maybe they do, and maybe they don't, but it's MY decision.
Sorry, I just had to get that off my chest.
bigdrive5, I don't think anyone knows the answer to your question. Odds of a good outcome from the commission? Even if it's 80%, it still means that it's one in five that IDCC loses out. After listening to the CC, though, and looking at the hard decisions that have come down from various courts, I think that IDCC will become significantly more profitable than it is today. Trying to time it is risky (God, don't I know that) but I believe that the next few years will be good ones for this company.
You, just like all the rest of us, will have to make up your own mind on what will be a good investment, and I wish you the best of luck.
Patopinion, thanks for your reasoned reply. I'm certainly not expert in law, technology, or corporate governance.
What comes next may tick off or offend some of you but that's not my intent. There are those who seem to get some pleasure out of yanking other people's strings. I feel a little sorry for them - what kind of a life is that?
Anyway, we all know (or should know) that IDCC is a bit of a risky investment. But that's the chance we take, isn't it? I'm not going to assume that everyone here has the same motivations so from now on it will be "I", not "we".
I'm not pleased with the latest event but I went into this with my eyes wide open. I didn't get the chance to buy the puts which would have made this, at worst, a small gain but it was my mistake. I'm a big boy and make my financial decisions and live with the consequences. But I'm learning. If, in fact, only traders benefit from the volatile nature of this stock well, then, I'll have to learn how to trade. I'm in it to make money. Yeah, I'm kind of married to this company, and I wish I wasn't, but that's the way it is. Next week is another opportunity.
Oh, and I hope like hell that JimLur has enough money to live comfortably, hit the golf course or whatever else trips his trigger, and never look back at IDCC. He seems like a pretty good guy.
Sorry that it didn't work out for you, Jim.
I could tell you my name but you probably wouldn't remember me from 15 years ago anyway.
The only reason I'm posting is that I need to vent a little, as a lot of folks seem to be doing. But I'm not going to vent about corporate mismanagement or the broken legal system. I'm going to tell you about my experience with IDCC.
I lost what for me was a hell of a lot of money in this company way back in the '90s (I don't do margins anymore). I got back in eight or nine years ago. I accumulated 1000 shares and watched the price go up and down. A couple months ago I started playing around with call options. I made a grand or so and dumped it all into July $50 and %52.50 calls. Then on Wednesday I started to get a bit nervous and thought it would be good to hedge myself a little, so I transferred $5000 from my bank into the brokerage account. I was thinking 10 $42.50 calls at a little over a dollar. If something unimaginable happened, say a $10 drop, I'd actually make a tidy profit. Unfortunately, I wasn't up to speed on the availability of the money and Scottrade wouldn't allow me to buy the puts. Well, sh-t.
Bottom line, though, is that there's a lot of money to be made in this stock. Just make sure that you've always got it covered one way or the other.
Just for what it's worth.