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ABUS What's your opinion on recent ABUS data? Thanks!
You lost your mind, SA, sorry to say that.
Sad to see old farts became insane. Cat's mindless attacking of preferreds is one example, and your badmouthing of people who pay the best lawyers on your behalf is another.
What's going on with LD's oil/russia trade?
Is that real reason that Camero closed the google board?
Beta
What's going on with Google board? Are you one of 3 managers? Closing it shows weakness.
With Jumpstart, liquidation risk is much higher now.
CSP should be ready before 2018. 2018 is also the year GSEs reach $0 capital and Watt will be ready to leave the FHFA director post. If HC becomes president, GSEs will most likely become a mutual based insurer as outlined in Maxine Waters' GSE legislation (http://democrats.financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=383108).
In a receivership, bankrucptcy law applies. Likely, junior preferreds will reach RV.
Thanks, AT! You are the best. LOL.
BTW, just added 10000 FNMAS and FMCKJ. Now my cost basis is more than -$5.
Cat, that's nonsense.
CatBirdSeat
What's happening with Google board? Did Camero lock it again? If I remember correctly, you are one of 3 owners, another one is Beta. So do you all agree to this "capricious and arbitrary" behavior?
You are too emotional...
I have plenty of FMCKJ/FNMAS. My cost is probably -$5 after several rounds of FNMAS/FNMA conversion and profit taking. No need to buy more...but if it's on sale, will add a little.
Thank you, AT! That's very insightful and thoughtful...
So Camero finally locked you out? LOL.
Why did Mario Ugoletti quit his job now?
He was the mole that Treasury embedded in FHFA, and played the PSPA game on behalf of both sides. He made $260,000 in 2014 (public info). That's a very good paying job as a federal employee, and why did he quit now?
Can we, as GSE shareholders, sue him on the base that he lied under oath and thus we suffered irreversible damage?
He is just an information manipulator. He has no insights and connections. But there are something good in comments so I have to check his website once in a while.
Thanks, Cat!
I don't trust the current owner
She always took side with LD and deleted anything that criticizes LD. That's the reason I never joined and will never join. However, AT's way of using multiple IDs to manipulate people is childish and disgusting.
Who is that asshole turning Google board into private one?
Conversion is likely, but not 1:1. It should follow Citi's example. if BO has to screw somebody, commoners are the likely ones. Recent trading in preferreds and commons shows increasing possibility of such action.
1:1?
This is totally nonsense. See what government did with preferreds in Citi case. Preferreds were converted on RV/(Common price traded before announcement).
Because of valuation gap, hedges longed Citi preferreds and shorted common and were squeezed very hard for several days.
AT, you attacked the wrong person.
SA bought tons of preferreds and commons in the 20-30 cents range...he surely knows what he's doing.
BTW, are you finally banned from Google board?
Leave AT or N2N alone
Why do you bother to argue with that poor guy? Whatever he is saying had been said by many others many times. What's the big deal? Just because he called himself AT and pumped FNMA on message board a month ago?
His current trade Long FNMAS/Short FNMA is probably the dumbest. We saw people who did this got killed in 2013 and 2014.
BTW, Kellogg sucks at finance. If you got an MBA from that school, you'd better set your career in selling socks or perfumes.
4N is most likely our good old friend AT
He recently changed his name to Caitlyn...so you suddenly see these funny words out of his mouth. LOL.
Are you a lawyer? If not, go read the judge's order. Both you and Joe have reading comprehension issues.
If you have no idea what you say, then don't say it.
Both of you and Joe are confused on the major point of lawsuit: the lawsuit tries to invalidate the tender/vote event, and has nothing to do the different treatment of 2 classes and Timm even doesn't ask for any different treatment/result. The judge will not reward you anything that you didn't ask.
I am not trying to convince you or Joe, do whatever you think is right...
Arguing on IMPHP/IMPHO is meaningless. The outcome is based on how well the company does. If IMH goes up to $30, $40, then it's no brainer that the company does some stock offering to redeem the preferreds.
1. Market could be very stupid - it's obvious during our journey with Fannie/Freddie common/preferred stocks. For example, FNMA was $0.3 when FNMAS traded close to $3.
2. IMPHP/IMPHO ratio used to be 2, now it's 1.15.
I read the order and my conclusion is that you are absolutely wrong. I bet with my money and you bet with yours. That's it.
You are absolutely wrong.
The lawsuit is to reverse that event - so both preferreds stand the same result. There's no distinguish between B and C preferreds. Timm is suing on behalf of both B and C preferred owners. So it's nonsense that people argue B would do better than C with favorable lawsuit result.
The argument is whether the tender offer and contract change stand. There's no 2 separate votes by each preferred, the company even urged owner to vote together if owned both B and C preferreds. It's so clear that I don't bother to argue further on this issue.
The investment in preferreds is ultimately a bet on the success of the company.
My view
1. I just spent several hours reading the two 2009 proxies and court 2013 findings/orders, so my thinking is fresh but could be shallow.
2. Preferred stock enjoys the same residual earnings as common stock does, the difference is that the preferred contract dictates some special or preferred treatments. The board has both contractual and fiduciary duties to preferred owners. If company declares dividend to common stock, IMPHO holders entitle dividend with prefixed dividend interest. The view that common could get dividend but preferred gets nothing is obviously false.
3. Thus even assume 2009 event stands, IMPHO enjoys equal economic interest in the company as the common shares. It's thus strange that common trades 3 times higher than preferred.
4. Certainly if company (management and board) definitely desires to screw preferred owners, they can postpone dividend for a long time so even one day IMH gets to $1000, the company can still redeem IMPHO at $25. This probably explains why preferreds trade at significant discount to commons.
5. Concerning lawsuit, the court order is pretty clear on claim 1, that in order to make the proxy stand, 2/3 of each class much vote for change. Thus the judgement is for both classes of preferreds, if IMPHP wins, IMPHO also wins. IMPHP getting paid while IMPHO getting nothing is absolutely nonsense.
6. Most likely outcome is the company redeems outstanding preferred shares and most owners would be happy to get $25. The lawsuit puts more risk to the firm as if the firm loses, it has to pay accumulated dividends (a lot) and yield out board seats. The company just didn't have resources to do so but in the future as it makes progress, redemption of preferred is the right way to go.
Thank you, Bill!
Want to say thank you! Have been reading your every post since 2010. Can't say enough how I appreciate your blog.
Thank you, 44cents!
Good job, David!
I think you are making yourself an expert on GSE issues. Job well done!
You may want to sit back a little to be seen more relaxed. Your head is a little too big on the screen.
Finally FMCKJ starts to catch up
it could be the easiest 6% return in the market...EMH my ass!
Thanks 44cents...
If FMCKJ goes back to 44 cents on dollar again, my position in FMCKJ alone will be close to my all time HWM.
FNMAJ is always the cheapest if considering dividend yield
I don't know why...in weak hands?
FMCKJ is in distribution mode
I think you are absolutely correct. The price is controlled so that large blocks go at a much discounted price compared to FNMAS. I have been doing common/preferred switch now only have FMCKJ (sold FNMA/FMCC/FNMAS for FMCKJ).
We will see how long this distribution process takes. FMCKJ volume since January is significantly larger than FNMAS, most traded in large blocks.
Now we are talking about efficient market theory...LOL.
You are the smart one here
GTATQ lives by Apple. dies by Apple. That's it, all other talks are just noise or junk.
Judge Pratt
After I have read the cases that he presided and judged, especially the Gall case, I came to the conclusion that he is a very fine judge - detailed, careful and thorough in his legal opinions and decisions. I am very confident that he will make the right decision in the Continental case.
http://www.creighton.edu/fileadmin/user/law-school/news/docs/Judge_Pratt_Resolution.PDF
Judge Pratt
After I have read the cases that he presided and judged, especially the Gall case, I came to the conclusion that he is a very fine judge - detailed, careful and thorough in his legal opinions and decisions. I am very confident that he will make the right decision in the Continental case.
http://www.creighton.edu/fileadmin/user/law-school/news/docs/Judge_Pratt_Resolution.PDF
2 Things to Clarify for Rosen62
1. Watt's comment on end of conservatorship talk with Treasury was first reported by Bloomberg reporter on Twitter. It's obviously made during interview with reporters after the hearing.
2. Warner/Watt conversation on income/capital is about private mortgage insurer's rules that GSEs will adopt. Watt just used GSE's situation as an example. It has nothing to do with counting G-Fee as capital for GSEs as some people on Google board claimed.
Judge Sweeney's ruling should be positive for stocks
At least we know now that Judge Sweeney would not act like a mad man (woman). I think she is fair and fact-oriented. Also she follows procedures carefully and is cautious. So the discovery will go on and something ugly from the government will come out.
For other lawsuits, any less bad news is good news.
You are absolutely correct. Tim Howard must be Berkie's idea, unnecessary in my opinion.
I really appreciate Rosen's and your opinion. That Absurd guy on google board is funny and very knowledgable.