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March is nearer, my hedged positions have
some negative biased call positions
added across multiple sectors now...
Banking changes ahead...
so we watch...LJ
China economy weaker or stalled gets Alibaba
signal to add to Opec+ signal...
https://stocktwits.com/Traidn/message/563595038
Alibaba is moving because of the
economy being weaker and not
what tea readers in video suggest...
Been plotting Alibaba ads basically
pleading for buyers started recently...
Of course, when my funds are muted...
So we watch...LJ
Nvda had daily volume surge on 750 puts
for this Friday, next Friday, and then
Friday, 03/15, monthly expiration...
Also had volume surge same weeks
for 750 call price...
Massive amount of bets that it closes
below that mark...sold puts and sold calls...
lol, may only be light hedge for folks
playing such big price marks...
Just something that I noticed...
biti is my new watcher...
So we watch...LJ
KIK isn't wagering against Beasts of the East...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/verisilicon-npu-ip-shipped-over-000000378.html
Entry level Ai integrated with IP
for more every day products is
more believable this early in the cycle...
Companies just jumping all over high
priced chips in new, unproven applications
for customer acceptance is more the
script of the propped up West companies...
Peon rambling only, of course...
SOXS is even cheaper than NVD...
So we watch...LJ
Russia benefits with low demand, oil price pump
period going on now...
It makes it easier for them to get
a higher price on oil sales than
they should have been getting...
https://www.barchart.com/futures/energies
Oil price could easily be selling at up
to $10/bbl cheaper than it has been...
Russia and Iran oil sales for more weapons
are getting a boost...
Estimates are that Red Sea shipping delays
increase oil use 100,000 bbls. to 200,000
bbls/day now with longer routes...
The high side estimate seems unlikely
with world trade down now...
And Arab countries could poot an extra
200.000 bbls/day of production to build
a pickle ball arena if they wanted too...
Oil price could correct anytime lower...
VTLE $40 puts have been added...
Going with old faithful on that choice...
So we watch...LJ
Oil dropping $5 or $6 per barrel after-hours
wouldn't have surprised me...
SQQQ calls were closed out late,
more weakness in the Qs did
catch me by surprise...
It's like throwing darts at balloons
outside in the howling wind today...
So we watch...LJ
When you see a company hedged at 73
going up a larger percentage than
other oil companies that are making
more off a higher oil price,,,
You have to stop and ponder?...
...what's up?...
so we watch...LJ
China economy appears stalled or weaker...
Opec+ now stating no visbility
for Saudi Arabia to restore any
oil exports yet this year...
Oil future's traders who have been
taking profits have pushed up the
Cushing inventory three weeks straight...
They appear to be reading Opec+ signals
of well stocked market properly...
You only see a $50 price if price
support at $47 holds...
My guess is that ole henry may be
doing a sell program about now...
Only a nutty idea right now...
So we watch...LJ
Nvda, dropping price below $500 might tick Nancy
off for a spell...
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/pelosi-banks-14m-in-90-days-from-nvidia-stock-option-trade-outraging-watchers-3315825
That is above $150 to $200 potential
support that might come in when
the pump support is finally pulled...
NVD is the cheap, Highly Speculative
play for peons for a potential drop...
Lol, cheaper to buy shares to bet against
the company than to buy options to
gamble on the company future...
So we watch...LJ
NVDA...INTC info on xFusion Digital Technologies
Co., Ltd...China company...
click show more for address...
https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/partner/showcase/storefront/a5s3b000000trl7eag/xfusion-digital-technologies-co-ltd.html
Persona was created for Hyperscale Nexus
Holding Corp. by an AMMJ filing to
SEC on Proposed Merger...
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/945617/000190359623000743/ammj_pre14c.htm
No other SEC info on Hyperscale Nexus...
Enlightenment Press time started then...
https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/cannabis-company-merges-with-gpu-hosting-company-hyperscale-nexus/
AMMJ filing on delayed merger proposal...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=17094720&guid=xid-kpv1YG_Fsrh
AMMJ showed $8,000 in cash assets at
09/30/2023...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/AMMJ/financials
NVDA Stocktwits board has seen an
uptick in postings urging folks to jump
on the Ai related start up companies...
NVDA made plans for India chip sales...
Yota financial forensics might be a starter
for the more more Elite in chasing
shell company transfers...
The numbers are rather coincidentally
close to the Rediting Group idea...
https://readwrite.com/nvidia-will-sell-advanced-gpus-to-india-after-china-exports-blocked/
Folks are smarter than just using a
few shell companies to move chips
back to the China military gov't...
Way too much black market money
on the line for front buyers for those
wanting chips for bad things...
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/nvidias-h100-ai-gpus-cost-up-to-four-times-more-than-amds-competing-mi300x-amds-chips-cost-dollar10-to-dollar15k-apiece-nvidias-h100-has-peaked-beyond-dollar40000#:~:text=Artificial%20Intelligence-,Nvidia's%20H100%20AI%20GPUs%20cost%20up%20to%20four%20times%20more,has%20peaked%20beyond%20%2440%2C000%3A%20Report
FLASH BANKING THEFT using chip
technology faster than law enforcement
could be a thingy to watch for to break
the big chip bubble in the future...Or it
might just be a wide spread hack to
interfere with daily service items...
Because foreign companies are already
registered to do biz with U.S. companies...
click show more for address...
https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/partner/showcase/storefront/a5s3b000000trl7eag/xfusion-digital-technologies-co-ltd.html
It has no bad smell yet when folks
are rolling in money...Pumps on
start ups are in infancy...
So we watch...LJ
Inflation tame, ticket prices to rise 10%+ at
Disney World this season...
Have nots have to borrow more for
that trip this summer...
Or just skip it...
Democrats believe in higher prices
being shared by all...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE appears a 6 forward p/e beast now...
Better leave selling the $35 or $40
calls to the brave...
Might hold above there on back test...
Refiners not producing much is driving
up gas pump prices, which the oil pumpers
are trying to ride with demand off now...
So we watch...LJ
Oil price pump now adds to higher credit
risk growing since it will keep
interest rates up longer...
Wag...Many of those start ups that Nvda
loaned money to, that then bot Ai chips
with the money to boost the Nvda revenue
stream, will fail within three years...
Best to put those insane gains off the
Ai pump into safer havens than rolling
them into more gambles...
Current market bubble in Ai is bigger
than many past market bubbles, but
it is isolated to the wealthy who can
afford to play it...The ultimate crash coming
in the Ai bubble won't affect most folks
as much as any left as bag holders...
Most current layoffs are coming in sectors
that are seeing declining unit volume
movement and is related to slowing
economies worldwide and not Ai related...
So we watch...LJ
Mortgage refinance info,,,
https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2024/02/12/20-percent-of-commercial-and-multifamily-mortgage-balances-mature-in-2024
Growth isn't always a good sign...
So we watch...LJ
betcoin, cut off power to Utah if it is
needed to power bitcoin mining...
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Texas-Bitcoin-Miners-File-Lawsuit-Against-Government-Over-Energy-Data-Collection.html
China is far ahead of U.S. common
sense in battling excessive energy
consumption for repetitive purposes...
So we watch...LJ
SONY, high oil price in lower demand climate
will only increase speed of economic
downturn already in motion...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sony-cut-900-jobs-playstation-144703061.html
New layoffs across different sectors
keep hitting news lines daily...
Sticker shock at gas pumps in April
is hinted at in wholesale gasoline
future's price for April which is no
biggie month for demand normally...
So we watch...LJ
Durable Goods Orders dropped in January...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-durable-goods-orders-fall-135342448.html
A reading of future activity and isn't
measuring the real low activity of January...
So we watch...LJ
SQQQ itm calls added today for Friday...
taking a swing at the more over
priced index...
so we watch...LJ
fwiw, SPXS itm call options were at low
premiums to price on Monday...
9.50 is first weekly price reference...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPXS/options
Bulls are ruling the trail now...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE didn't use full 35.4 million share count
in figuring the adjusted EPS
posted in their pr...
They used weighted average number...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vital-energy-reports-fourth-quarter-213000210.html
Might be some selling shares off those
pr numbers because they haven't
posted the 2023 10k filing yet...
Their annual or quarterly filings generally
are released a day or so after 8-Ks and
prs of results for those...
VTLE does have the correct share count
for year end in the pr to see...
Which should also be higher after
1st quarter of 2024...
So we watch...
ppssst, hedge funds dumped tech positions,
at a rather convenient time...
https://www.investing.com/news/economy/hedge-funds-call-time-on-tech-rally-goldman-sachs-says-3315692?dicbo=v2-fXxzOTD
must be expecting inflated prices
to ease going forward...
so we watch...LJ
Where is Barr from?, Barr and Sessions both
told Mr. Trump what the law would
allow on matters...
And he butted heads with each...
In retrospect, He should have listened
to each of their replies...
So we watch...LJ
Sessions getting the cold back hand is
likely the top name that cost
Trump votes in 2020...
Trump had a long list of people that
he departed ways with and most
was never done in a pretty way...
Sessions came on board and Trump
surged in 2016 and Sessions booted
off team and Trump sagged in 2020
if your memory fails on that...
Ms. Haley may be able to win a general
election in fall between three,,,
She could pull up to 40% of Republicans
and possibly up to 20% of Democrats,
She polls about 15% higher over Biden now,,,
Of course it could need a runoff between top
two vote getters to get to that magic target
of electoral votes...
Just something to ponder...
So we watch...LJ
40% of Republicans aren't likely to vote
for Trump...
That margin is holding in South
Carolina about as expected...
Someone can only kick so many
former supporters under the bus before
the chickens come home to roost ...
Trump-Biden matchup should bring out
a historically low voter turn out...
So we watch...LJ
New York real estate doom...People in Iowa
will be plowing over corn for land
for so many leaving New York...
So we watch...LJ
New York real estate market troubles loom...
Clock ticking on appeal kitty...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/23/politics/trump-judgment-civil-fraud-ruling/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc
That is like, like over 570,000 shares
of nvda to put it in perspective...
So we watch...LJ
lol, so most tech stocks went weak Friday
from worrying if Trump will do
ok on Saturday....
Does that mean they pop back up
on Monday?...
Don't ya know that Ms. Haley is saving
her ammo for Super Tuesday, with Mr.
Trump being distracted more now?...
You act like znn counting everything over
just when it's getting started...
Gotta make both those old mules run
hard to the finish line...
Will send you a pretty young buck picture
taken a few weeks back on trail cam
when I remember to...
So we watch...LJ
Put 50% tax rate on $500 billion market
cap public companies...
It would lower herds driving up
single company values...
It would reduce public company monopolies
by encouraging public companies to divest
into other separately held companies to
reduce market cap below $500 billion...
Which would expand real employment
in the divestiture process...
It would direct public market capital to
more companies that do need it more...
Here is why it is needed...
Two of the most recognized Mega companies
in their sector are below the $500 billion
market cap target to increase tax rates...
Wal Mart and Exxon...
https://companiesmarketcap.com/
Those two big names show that the
public equity market pricing is broke
and needs external force to correct
how equity markets are priced...
Two other big name leaders in credit
card lending are at or near that billion
dollar market cap target even with some
high lending numbers in play to heed...
So we watch...LJ
NVDA selling at staggering 38 forward p/e on
Friday closing price and 4 times the
latest quarterly earnings on annual basis...
That is 38 years of profits priced into the
price now IF they maintain that rate...
Chips are a cyclical biz...
Info is in the link...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/
NVDA has about 200,000 times higher
share count than VTLE had when it hit
around $100/share in 2022 with over
$5/share EPS in a quarter, which is similar
to 5.16/share EPS reported by NVDA last week...
That should tell you quickly how over valued
the pricing is on NVDA...
A wipe out happening only depends on
when it starts on NVDA...
It really looks like the GME pump crew
moved onto NVDA after pumping and
dumping on GME so big...
Game Over will come...
So we watch...LJ
Losing on everything lately, ERX pumped by
refiners even with oil price drop...
Qs dropped even with nvda pump
on so no entry on it...
When nvda drops they will flip back on
the others next week and Qs could stay
range bound...
Gonna start planting flower seeds and
watch the birds eat those...cheaper...
So we watch...LJ
SQQQ, need oil price to drop tonight and
Friday to keep the tech pump up...
Friday afternoon is a target time for
me to watch for next SQQQ call entry,
because weekly options expire Friday,
on the heels of Nvda earnings...
NVDA 700 call for Friday went up by
$63 on Thursday alone for example...
QQQ calls for Friday had a big day Thursday...
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/QQQ/options?expiration=2024-02-23-w&moneyness=20
Those gains cannot be left on table...
Contracts closed only reap the profits...
Not expecting weakness in Qs on Friday...
Which is set up time on SQQQ for any
potential price corrections ahead...
Peon thesis only and no big wagers...
NVD looking like a prospect for an add
from Thursday if after hours pricing holds...
Highly Speculative...
So we watch...LJ
Natural Gas Doom...Ai can forget sales in
the lil natural gas sector...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Price-Drop-Could-Spell-Doom-for-Producers.html
Much more energy efficient Ai chip
sales from IBM might even struggle
if energy prices are cheap...
Do not short Big Blue though because
they are likely to clean the chops of those
selling inefficient chips at some time...
Plain biz sense there...They're Here...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE posted a silly high, WAHA price estimate
for February in their presentation...
And only showed about 40% of their
natural gas production hedged of the
much higher totals produced now also...
Cue up your 'Big John' tune...
WAHA has fluctuated between .41 and
.94 in February so far...
Has done well to stay above negative...
https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/
Doom in natural gas company headlines now
starts to appear after months of extemely
low winter natural gas prices...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Price-Drop-Could-Spell-Doom-for-Producers.html
Big oil/gas companies take a bigger hit
to revenue with low natural gas prices
unless they were fully hedged afore hand...
SPOTting WAHA prices in public is
rarer than hen's teeth...
So we watch...LJ
Ai needed to track growing credit card delinquencies
could be a big driver of sales...
Consumers don't need Ai...
Just the debt trackers...
Ai isn't ya friend...
Other than those riding the tech pump
mania in the market...
https://www.businessinsider.com/credit-card-debt-interest-rates-consolidation-economy-recession-soft-landing-2024-2
So we watch...LJ
Thank goodness oil price is up with anemic
demand pushing it...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf
Bold, new frontier in pricing abounds...
So we watch...LJ
NVD tapped on this afternoon...
21 to 22 times annual revenue
valuation on Nvda is hopefully the
most obnoxious that you may ever
see in a mega cap company...
Smci valuation is way higher in orbit
but it isn't a mega cap company...
Peon observation only, of course...
So we watch...LJ
SDOW, looks like only a DOW retreat
might cool some excesses in
the market now...
Oil price is high versus real demand...
Tech price mania is still kicking cans...
lol, natural gas price spike...
Real estate asking prices still high with
around 7% mortgage rates...
Good gravy, what's not to like?...
...Dropping unit sales...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE pr share count looks way low
versus what 10k filing may show...
About 35.4 million shares are shown
on page 19 of investor presentation
for year end 2023,
more like would be expected to see...
VTLE pr only used about 29.8 million
fully diluted share count for numbers...
https://investor.vitalenergy.com/static-files/0a7614e2-e566-4cc2-9767-b64240c9b3c2
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vital-energy-reports-fourth-quarter-213000210.html
Thought that I remembered them closing
an add on tranche just before year end
2023...
Will wait on 10K filing to see if the pr on
2023 results needs to be corrected...
Or maybe no one will notice it...
1st quarter, 2024 is projected to have a
low till rate, and they projecting about
40% decline rate on oil well production
in 1st year,,,
so 2nd quarter, 2024 production could be
struggling like 4th quarter, 2023 production
was before acquisition production was
added to the 4th quarter results,,,
At the high dilution rate increase though...
So we watch...LJ
Houthi buds, Iran, and Russia making more
money off the pumped up price
of oil for February...
This has been one of the weaker demand
periods that most ever see...
They will be getting filthy rich to fund more
war killings with nothing but hype in the oil
price rewarding them now...
And even more in a few months when
demand does tend to increase...
This low demand down turn now hints
that even that upturn could be weaker...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE would have posted above 2.10share eps
on an adjusted basis and on the fully
diluted shares of around 36 million if
posted in 4th quarter, 2023...
Puts a buy back in target for me
in 32 to 34 range at 4 p/e forward...
I'm not paying extra for the dilution...
4th quarter oil production should have
been close to that after NOG acquisition
was done...
So Henry acquisition still looks like it
really more or less diluted common share
holders with high gas production percentage...
And losing is no fun to me...
Sometimes you just have to hit that
reset button...
ERX puts added today...lower gasoline
demand can't keep pushing up oil price...
It's not supposed to work that way...
So we watch...LJ