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Agree...I appreciate your input and believe there is legitimacy to you theory.
On the basis of that theory, What about the partnership in China with eddingham? Is that another loose end to be tied up?
Why would GSK not jump on AMRN and the EPA only science and turn it into a world class multi-billion $ drug to replace lost revenue from the fall of Lovasa?
Is that BP Merck? What are they waiting on? His share vest on May 1 but he officially takes over Aug 1
$2000...with a limit of 100b coins that would put the total value at $200 trillion. Not likely...the highest price target I can find is $10 per share...no more than $20 by 2030.
You may have been asked and have addressed this but what is the time frame of these seponses to you filing? Thanks for your work!
Great post...
What does that mean to all open litigation. Would they be compelled to drop the suits or make a business arrangement with Amarin regarding patents? The irreparable damage is already done regarding pps and potential value for BO. It is hard to understand why they are digging in for the long road of litigation when there is very little hope of return.
Agree...this is the kind of news that could provoke any interested BP(s) to urgency if they ultimately want to control EU launch and thinking Merck may have an inside track because of new CEOs history.
It is clear at this point that there is no interest from BP. If there is than there is no legitimate or reasonable offer being discussed. However, if there is any slight interest in Vascepa, the more steps we take towards a legitimate launch in EU the more urgency is created and more leverage we have to negotiate. I have zero confidence in JT and the BOD...but everything is for sale if the price is right. It is a multi-billion dollar game of chicken with many's financial future at stake.
Great article...Vascepa is a valuable asset that would bring great returns for a buyer. Come on JT...get her done.
Any chance the gap gets filled at $13 with EU approval?
25.70 or roughly $10b BO...
Still cheep imo considering the scope of benefit and worldwide revenue potential. But we need BP to execute.
What you say makes sense...I always appreciate your POV. However, is Amarin and Vascepa even on BPs radar? I would hope so at this point but I am beginning to wonder.
rtc
"One sided LAZY reporting left out Nationalization and SO much more. This "reporter" missed the entire first half. REUTERS REPORTER IS AN IDIOT"
Worse than that...he is on the take. He has an agenda for the shorts and MM. Objective journalism is a lost art and is the path to socialism. Hopefully justice will prevail in SCOTUS
Stockman is a classic softbasher...I have no right to judge but I personally give no attention to what he says or claims about his position in the stock.
Just my opinion
I hope he is being conservative at $10 ...he has stated earlier in his thesis a range o $23 - $42. That is what I am holding for and hopefully when new pspa and consent decree is done where we can be released and re-listed and true value given. That will also depend on what they decide to do with the warrants.
If FY 2021 began in Oct, then we are technically in "early FY 2021". That would keep in line with any actions between now and pre-SCOTUS settlement or pre-JB inauguration. Plus, it all may hinge on SCOTUS ruling in March at earliest.
Raf,
As you have pointed out several times...why would generics want to enter an untapped market with limitations to supply? Although gravely discouraged by what has happened to destroy an innovative and life-saving product, I am glad the verdict is in so quickly and we now know where we stand.
With that in mind, the question still remains why would the generics see this as a victory when they will never realize the revenue potential of reduce-it and even a diluted marine label with now other generics and limited supply.
Is there still an opportunity for an arrangement with Hikma that would be mutually beneficial? If JT has been the barrier to any type of settlement prior to the hearings, he now has zero leverage and has to take a deal if there is any opportunity. Although worse case it would still be better than completely exiting the US market.
If each judge had predetermined to affirm Du's ruling prior to hearing then why not cancel the OA?
Thanks to both...
KG, what is your price target on trvn if they are approved on the 7th?
That is encouraging to hear...do you have a link to details regarding when, how much, etc.
TIA
If this does somehow delay entry for generics then it could be the leverage needed to finally settle on a reasonable business arrangement. This is usually part of Singer's plan to find victory through a settlement of some type.
Lord help us!
I agree that we have lost substantial time value for US mkt, but it has zero impact on EU and ROW where there is 10 to 12 year mkt life. If appeal is won and all combined sales could easily reach $5b+ per year which will justify a $15b to 18b bo...$37 to 45 per share. If we could get multiple suitors sniffing this out it could help push it up.
Agree 100%
Bouf,
You have supported the idea that a settlement is still possible. Does today's brief create leverage for negotiations or are we getting too far down the road for a deal. For the sake of time and money as well as the inherent risk of losing the appeal, I am still holding out hope for a deal of some kind.
Well, an elephant will sit on the pps until there is some resolution sooner the better. If possible, a settlement is preferred.
The elephant in the room is that since our patents have been invalidated Vasepa's IP is completely exposed and generics will benefit if we pursue and promote any use of Vascepa incl covid19. If generics get a whiff of any potential use for covid they will dig their heels in and take all prescriptions regardless of the indication.
Catch 22 for Amarin. There has to be a pathway to settle this thing sooner rather than waiting for 2nd or 3rd qtr 2021 for appeal judgement. Of which our chance of winning is a coin flip.
Where is the FDA in all this fiasco? They need to step up somehow to protect drug innovation by taking a stand to protect a mult-use drug like Vascepa.
Such bullshit!!!
This video provides some disturbing perspective regarding our state of fear in this pandemic.
Quote:"anything short of a settlement"
Marjac,
Many have vehemently shot down the idea that a settlement is a possible or could be at all beneficial for Amarin.
What say you?
You have to settle with generics on US market whatever the cost...period. There has to be a reasonable financial agreement that benefits both.
Only clear path to full value removing all risk and uncertainty is settlement.
Good quote...goes to show that generics cannot and are not interested in developing a market for drugs. They only want to hijack developed markets.
All the more reason for both parties to not waste time and money on the appeal and negotiate a settlement that will benefit both. Generics need to let Amarin build the market for the next 7 to 8 yrs and reap the reward then and we need to get the US market back for valuation for BP and BO.
DU's actions were unjust and it should be undone for the sake of principle and preserving medical innovation, but Amarin and shareholders cannot afford the risk and cannot bare the weight for all biotech.
Singer gives us a better chance to win but the risk far outweigh the reward. I think he also knows how to bring about acceptable settlements that would move us on from this nightmare. If you view his bio, he settles about 35% of his cases when representing the plaintiffs including several at the appeal level.
Among a few services that Markman Advisors provide one of them is investment consulting regarding patent valuations. Considering that they give investment advise on patents that can effect stock values, do you think that Markman can be purely objective free from any outside subjective forces. They appear legit and sound impressive but are bent on being solely bearish on Amarin chances to get out alive on the appeal and chances for settlement. What hope do we have then but to languish at current value in hopes of partnership for EU.
Just sayin...I trust no one.
Done
rtc
Great post and thoughtful insight to what may be going on behind the scenes. The more discussion with BP regarding Vascepa's holistic global market the sooner the resolution to patent litigation. I cannot imagine anyone seeing the benefit pursuing appeal to the end before settlement or BO or the combination of the two. It behooves all involved for the US market to reach full maturity incl generics. This will bring back most of the value for US with $3-5b annual and $2-3b EU and ROW. BO for $18 to 25B assuming patent issue resolved.
A"must win approach" on the appeal is suicide and is not in the best interest of the shareholder. I hope that is not their approach and would find it hard to think that a BOD of a PUBLIC company would be so careless and unwise.
There is a deal to be made that can mitigate the huge risk of losing the appeal and setting up Amarin (or BP) and Hikma and Reddy to capitalize on the Red-it mkt on an early entry. The question is can they come to terms?
I think BP was involved before the Du ruling and are still involved because of their interest in the "Global market." I can only imagine that every communication is designed to posture and create leverage but that behind the scenes it is a very "fluid" situation with every option being considered. Time and truth.
In any case, I am here for the long haul.
Perfectly stated...it almost seems to easy for JT. He seems to take the more difficult path for whatever reason. But, hopefully that is why Singer was brought in...to leverage a settlement.
Do they?...Does Amarin know that all involved are better off negotiating a settlement?
I can only hope and think that Singer is working his expertise laying out the landscape of the IP leverage each player has and working an equitable deal.
I am for settle then seek a BO. (#3)
Do they?...Does Amarin know that all involved are better off negotiating a settlement?
I can only hope and think that Singer is working his expertise laying out the landscape of the IP leverage each player has and working an equitable deal.
I am for settle then seek a BO. (#3)
Nasdaq shows 1 trade of 2,000,000 shares at $17.94 around 5:30p.
Odd