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Marzan: these are some I'd recommend:
Fly Fishing the Stock Market by Stephen Morris
Explains basics of TA + patterns + trade management.
Trades About to Happen by David Weis
I think he is a modern day Jesse Livermore. VERY smart guy who understands price/volume.
Trading in The Zone by Mark Douglas
Great book about the psychology of trading.
RAF: Let's do be realistic...
First of all $.10 is not just ten cents, it's 5.0%! Since the recent low, the price has appreciated 24.8% without breaking trend. A savvy technical analyst could have capitalized 80% of this move for a gain of 12.5K on a 50K investment with a very nice risk to reward ratio.
Not sure what you're expecting D.D.?
gg: "Everybody on this board who long the stock is the ultimate contrarian.
yes, just as JL said before when quoting Jesse Livermore, the best opportunities for wealth are those entities with spectacular potential that the masses have not discovered - yet. (something like that. Sorry if I butchered your words JL, JL)
FishyFingers:
just to clarify, this is a symmetrical triangle pattern, not a flag or wedge. All behave differently. Rising wedges are bearish and break down. Falling wedges do just the opposite. Flags are continuation patterns.
Also, you are using a linear chart (amateurs use) vs logarithmic (pros use). If you switch to logarithmic, it displays a different picture (below):
As we see, there is more upward progress to be made before BO. I don't think we'll see the high volume squeeze until the triple resistance is taken out (down TL + 200 moving avg + area where prices previously broke down and accelerated). This is where the big eruption occurs
Thanks for your post :) FFS
Say what you want, but the TA signals warned of trouble last summer DESPITE the 2 court wins, yet you blindly held your position - probably because of one of your predictions that “it will rise as it runs up to 967.” You’re still stuck under water now, only this time you are a bit more edgy and angry AND unsure what the hell will really happen. Will it be A,B,C or D? D, B, A, C? Will it be bullish or bearish? What about a downside breakout of this consolidation? Think of how irrational you will be then. Think about the “what if’s?” that will play havoc in your mind: What if in fact the FDA is going to play delay? What if the DS market over powers V? What if they go bankrupt? What if I lose it all? At some point NofunNofun, you will capitulate and walk away a loser because of your TA dogma.
Then you will pick up a TA book and try to learn why/what happened as you promise yourself it will never happen again. It sucks to be ignorant – and hurts the pocketbook.
You see, the difference between you and me is I can easily walk away from this board, unlike you, and others who are addicted to it 24-7 because of your overweight "emotional" investment in this stock.
Best,
FFS
A-E could all play out ( see the chart in post #75914) inside this pattern until the apex is reached. The pps either continues to channel up, gains momentum and breaks out on heavy volume or it retests the previous low first. Given the current light volume, It wouldn't take much for 1 hedge fund to slam prices down hard to shake out "high strung, in too deep" guys like you who suddenly start to think the sky is falling. However, such a false downside break also provides shorts an opportunity to cover, causing the price to surge back up as it induces a massive short squeeze ( remember the short interest ratio of 27?)
The pattern is nullified I f the pps bleeds through the end of the apex with no pyroclastic blast. If that were to occur, then my previous statement below applies:
Nofun:
Yes - magma continues to melt up through the crust.
Traders seem to have become more willing to buy at support than to sell at resistance - thus higher highs / higher lows seem likely to continue.
Shorts are feeling the pressure, having given up 15% in the past two weeks. Won't be long and they will run fast for "cover."
Not so Moby...
AMRN's pps has appreciated nearly 16% in 2 weeks.
Hang in there BB. We all feel the frustration. If anyone deserves a payoff it's you; you've earned it! Give it a little more time. This beast is smoldering. AMRN's price behavior has shown a change of character the past few days. Take a look at this intra-day 30-minute chart:
There is some sector momentum as well in the IBB chart, which is poised to break out:
This setup is too juicy for traders to ignore.
FFS
RAF:
RAF-
Wrong STS. More dogma.
Refer to my first post--75795.
I wrote:
RAF-
Not always. If traders are trembling in fear their spouse will find out they are down 100k in an AMRN short position because after market orders have stacked up overnight to gap the bid up 10 %, then pre-market trades are significant. Also, if overseas markets are down, US futures are down, and a AMRN is trading up pre-maarket in response to significant news, then that divergent trading behavior is significant. It is a harbinger of the daily trend.
AMRN: 1.59 pre-market; +3.92%, while the DJIA futures are down -88 (-.55%), NIKKEI shed -600 (-3.4%), and at the DAX is off -249(-2.46%)!!
wrong Mog:
Thanks Fishy.“Am I missing anything by ignoring the opening price? I like as little clutter as possible on my charts .”
I think so. I like the open to frame the intra-day price action. It illuminates false breakouts; both upside and downside as well as bullish or bearish engulfing bars – all of which mark key reversals when they trace near support or resistance:
By the way, the bar on the left is what will be the nail in the short's coffin. That's what we are going to see before that train moves back up. It will be their signal to cover. Unfortunately for some longs, it also represents capitulation.
I agree with your chart clutter comment. “Less is more.”
“How many years have you been at this? Have you worked for a hedge fund before?”
Been at this for a long time. Ha, ha, no, I would never prostitute my services to a hedge fund. The good life to me is fly fishing in the most serene places, trading in the most private places and mix in some real “work” to keep the wife happy :)
Timing's everything right? It's hard to predict when this will unfold, but if this pattern synchronizes with what we are waiting for newswise, I'd say that we should see a volume surge and/or breakout within the next 20 trading days. If not, then we could have a "Hound of the Baskervilles" type situation.... (ie something is wrong behind the scenes).
Marzan - A short position is a short position, whether the intent is to hedge or speculate on falling prices. The point of interest at this stage of development is the fact that these AMRN short positions can suffer infinite loses on rising prices/demand. Keep in mind, once a squeeze ignites, the bullish price action can set off a series of other price/volume surges, one helping to cause the next, enabling the price to slice up through key moving averages and or once broken support levels - now acting as resistance. For example I watch for:
• Price break above the 50-day EMA.
• Moving average crossovers.
• MACD centerline crossover.
• Golden Cross (50MA up through the 200MA)
Many program traders have algorithms pegged to these events in their formulation. So when trading this pattern, these sequential events can slingshot share prices up in hurry.
Hope that helps :)
100% agree.
Somewhat so yes. Price action is tracing higher lows and lower highs, while daily ranges increasingly shorten. True this is being impacted by the binary event, but as we converge further into the apex, it won't take much to ignite a move that breaks the down trendline. If so, look out above. On the other hand it would take some devastating news to force a downside breakout (sorry Mog, dilution is priced in). I think FishyFingers' map is right, although I doubt we see a run up to 10 pre-DMC decision. The good news is that the pps will likely be significantly higher when we receive news of a halt or not. Good interim results and no halt will certainly force a pullback, but in my opinion it will be limited by the technical levels of support under the price at that time + the residual short position that still needs to cover + institutions looking to build bullish positions on the heels of strong momentum/volume and clarity moving forward.
I think the all or none proposition applies only to the AMRN Bears who have a 70% chance of getting whacked.
One word of advice for them.....JAZZ
Price breakout near?
As a long time lurker, I appreciate all the shared insights regarding the prospects for V/AMRN. I know many of you don’t give a hoot about technical analysis but I firmly believe that most of the time the technical posture of a stock also represents its fundamental footing. Certain price patterns can also show an element of predictability in terms of fundamental potential. Consider this:
From the .78 low on 11/11/14 to the subsequent high of 3.33 on 3/16/15, those two extremes marked the beginning of a large symmetrical triangle formation (on a daily chart). From then, prices have oscillated within the converging trendlines on decreasing volume, currently resting near the apex. This is a ‘perfect storm’ folks. As big as the binary event is, this massive technical squeeze is of equal magnitude. The probabilities (in my opinion) of an upside resolution to this Classical Chart pattern strongly favor the bulls and thus coincide with the halt scenario.
Those short the stock (large short ratio of 26) cannot cover easily due to this characteristic low volume/volatility and are in essence cornered for the slaughter. Once their stops are triggered, this will blow to the upside quickly on massive volume (think of a zit popping). This base/pattern has been building for a long time and once it breaks, it will sustain a long term short-squeeze-induced bull run. Don’t kid yourself; the pros (hedge funds) are aware of this setup. They will first try to manipulate the price lower to ‘run the stops,’ then run it up to squeeze the huge short interest. I will be watching the option activity (above and below the apex) for clues to the anticipated news event that lights this fuse.
In no way shape or form is this stock broken. The low price, sleepy moves, and low volume appear deceptively as weakness, but in reality indicate a coiled spring.
Has this sort of pattern ever happened before? Yes, in a similar fashion, from March to the middle of June 2012 (prior to FDA acceptance) prices oscillated into the apex of an ascending triangle that broke sharply to the upside. It was equally predictable as this setup.
By the way, lest I forget, the price objective for this symmetrical triangle calls for a price rise to 5.88. If sideline bargain buyers jump in, it could go much higher in the short term.
While the rest of you continue to connect dots, I will do the same– only technically -
:) FFS