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Monday, March 28, 2016 7:56:32 AM
Thanks Fishy. Great post!
One of the most under appreciated aspects of AMRN's current setup is the fact that much of that accumulation (buying) has been absorbed by shorting; 11% of the AMRN float is short. In comparison, CPXX’s short interest was only 2.9% (pre-breakout). These short sellers are nervous now as the demand line slopes up and volume diminishes. No doubt there are MANY stop buy orders just above the down trendline (supply line). If the AMRN shorts suddenly decided to cover, it would take them 26 days to cover at the current average volume (Short interest ratio = 26). That is a very narrow exit! That is why this squeeze pattern can be so explosive.
Yes, absolutely (Mog and Mik), we will see a similar squeeze for AMRN. A little spark and this thing can easily rival what we saw with CPXX which only had a 2.45 days to cover ratio compared to AMRN’s 26! Mog wants you to think a CPXX similar squeeze couldn’t happen because its market cap dependent – LOL. His objective is to put a sliver of doubt in the back of your mind so that when fairly good (not great) news is announced, his boss can dump the bid, frighten you out of your shares, then run it up without you. Cleaver deceit how he is front running for them.
Trading this stock involves gaming probabilities. When all variables are thrown into the equation, it converts to a Win big in 2016 or win big in 2018 for the bulls who are long AMRN. For the bears who are short, it is a 90% chance of losing and a 75% chance of losing BIG, complements of a high short interest ratio induced squeeze.
It is misguided logic for Mog to assume a secondary offering will tank the stock. When and if a dilutive secondary is announced, the pps will be much higher, scripts will be higher, the future will be clearer, and buy-side momentum/volume will be alive and well. The street would likely perceive it as a positive step towards building future revenue and thus continue to accumulate in earnest - resulting in price behavior more representative of the company’s bright future.
The only hope for AMRN shorts is a halt for futility or an insignificant difference in efficacy for the R-IT trial. Absent of either of those outcomes and they remain locked up in the ‘house of pain.’ Ouch :)
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