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Would you take a 1.50/share if the stock gets delisted < .50/share? Hypothetically that would amount to a 300% premium (the approximate amount of the gap up on the R-IT announcement).
On paper, getting 75% approval looks like a leap, but if the stock gets delisted and descends further into tax loss season, shareholders will probably jump all over 1.50/share.
P-Dude -
Chart update. Are shorts ready to cover before the delisting and "going private" announcement?
The stock closed at an all time low today. The previous lowest low was on 11/10/2014.
There is a saying in trading, "short new highs, buy new lows".
Back in 2014, on the heels of the lowest close, the stock stabbed down the next day to print a bullish wick, before going on a tear up (+78%) over a very short period.
Nobody buys new lows better than shorty. Why would they take this opportunity to cover en masse now?
Remember (as pointed out in the attached post), the shorts know delisting is coming. They probably calculate that an announcement the company is going private is also forthcoming. With that event will come a premium (1.50?) offer to existing shareholders which will produce a sudden price/trend reversal. For that reason, I suspect we could see a sharp reversal bar soon representing the unwinding of the AMRN short float.
The short interest ratio is 6, meaning it would take 6 days (sessions) at current average volume for all to cover. Interestingly, we see in the chart below, the +78% rally that ensued subsequent to the new low in 2014 lasted for... (wait for it)... 6 days! A similar repeat would launch the price up to 1.43 - 1.50 (the potential amount of the premium?).
Bottom line, it could be very interesting to see how the shorts respond to today's new low in anticipation of forthcoming news.
The TA chart is offering a buying opportunity tomorrow if indeed a high volume bullish Doji Candlestick develops (as it did on 10/11/2014). This would be the time to load up in order to lower your cost basis and mitigate losses if the company goes for 1.50/share.
All IMO (connection of a few dots + a repetitive/repeatable past pattern + a little speculation based on how shorts respond to all time lows).
We'll see what happens...
Does not account for naked shorts
The shorts have destroyed this stock. I'm sure they giggle when their activity is characterized as a 'nothing burger'
Sarissa’s strategy is backstopping shorts.
If Denner is indeed intent on delisting so that he can take the company private, no doubt major short sellers are privy to this and have helped to facilitate the outcome.
With a short basis much much higher, they can sit on their riskless short positions until the fallout or announcement - whichever comes first.
At worst, their profits are locked in at whatever measly premium he offers shareholders (1.50??). At best, they can cover at much lower capitulation prices once the inevitable materializes. This creates the inverse of Jessie’s asymmetric investment for them, with a reward/risk ratio that is about as favorable as it gets (no wonder the short interest ratio has doubled over that past 3 mos).
For retail holders, his strategy caps the potential gain from here and locks in a loss below the basis of most shareholders.
So basically, if this is the case (and it appears so), Long investors are officially trapped under the premium ice.
Though devastating for shareholders, the evil win-win for Denner and shorty is disgustingly legal.
Long term Biotechnology chart
You'd have to be a fool to own/hold bios right now. The warning was evident long ago on the TA chart. Now it appears the index has broken down from its right shoulder, poised to pick up momentum to the downside.
The high beta stocks get taken out back an beat to a pulp during general market liquidation periods. If you are not following a TA chart, you will freeze and hold as it erases years of progress.
You may not own the stock at that point in time if it is delisted and then goes private
i don't know exactly, but based on what we have all witnessed, it appears that taking the company private might be in the works. If it undergoes a nasty slide from there, delisting comes into play which provides the opportunity for Sarissa's equity group to swoop in an acquire shares on the dirt cheap.
Why would they do this? Consider these quotes:
Death Spiral Continues...
Last week I wrote:
Priced in. Any stab down on weak results will recover in 2 sessions IMO
Kiwi,
Breaking to the downside? I hate to inform you but that has already happened. Remember when you mocked my post of "sliding into the abyss"? Well, welcome to the abyss.
Back in May you wrote:
Price - Volume chart is showing bears in control
The daily chart displays the downside breakout. Leading up to that breakout we see all the above average days were down days. Conversely, all the up days had feeble, below average volume.
Yesterday's move was in sympathy with the general market dead cat bounce.
This chart is suggesting more of the same... the trend will resume and pressure price.
Kiwi made a nice SLNO trade (providing he sold??) This SLNO chart exemplifies how price forecasts good news. People know, people talk, and people load up. The footprints of trades since the first of the year clearly show this:
The AMRN chart is a mirror image of this and forecasts the exact opposite.
Until a gap and runup on heavy volume (that turns all indicators up and breaks clean of the down trendline) occurs, It continues to price in failure.
I don’t disregard fundamentals. In fact, I’ve written numerous times of the effect when they synchronize with the technical message.
SNLO: not sure what was announced but the technical posture was clearly in expectation of a positive outcome.
The stock rallied from the first of the year, traced higher lows and settled in a squeeze pattern above a rising 200DMA.
So explain how those technicals contradict price is king.
AMRN on the other hand has sliced through key levels of nearly all support simultaneously with your proclamations the UK sales will explode the price higher. You said that when it was 1.50/share and now again at .90.
The TA message has been 180 degrees to all the hope filled posters - including you- who talk incessantly about fundamentals that haven’t materialized. Fundamentals that have been trumped by TA.
Adherence to a simple TA trendline could have saved you and others a lot of pain.
The fundamental investor who ignores TA never sells; not when it runs up to overbought levels or when it sinks below a dollar. They just continue to believe until it’s sometime too late.
Death Spiral update
5 days ago I wrote that the current bearish Descending Triangle pattern had resolved to the downside, putting the likely target of .85 in play. I also mentioned that the Head and Shoulders breakdown in the general market would amplify the spiral down.
S&P500 Index
Last month I posted;
Current AMRN Daily chart
Clearly these charts demonstrate 3 things:
1. TA's prognosticative value
2. The influence of the general market on small cap equities
3. The fact that price is king and the TA message nearly always trumps Fundamental hopes.
Today's bar was one of the longest range bars on the daily chart (closing at its low) and forecasts more downside follow through as prices slip with ease in these support-less conditions when margin calls throughout the general market combine with a spike in volatility.
Keep your crash helmets near.
Attacking the reason for his "presence here" is no counter point to his argument. Take a stab at refuting his logic. Let's see what you come up with instead of throwing stones like the rest of lizard brain posters do.
Not so fast my friend,
Perhaps it was simply an effort to provide CPR. Such an effort however has not been able to stop the inevitable fact that "price is king"
That fact - aside from all other noisy hopes - is what governs the intensity and magnitude of the trend. AMRN TA has confirmed this many times over.
WS sees a dying patient - in spite of a major shareholder giving mouth to mouth. In their view, it hasn't/won't change the odds of recovery.
if you see it any other way, please explain
That's too bad Sleven, because if you did, you would have seen this falling star years ago.
Oh well... I'm sure you'll enjoy hanging out in a big crater.
Behold two tipping points...
Seve me, Seve me please Seve me! I see people.... everyone in my life is Jon!
Do you realize you have made 24 posts in the past 24hrs, most of which are useless criticism. You truly have taken the place of your buddy John H.
Today's price action is purely technical. It has nothing to do with Sarissa or BRAVE.
I mapped this out for you, yet y'all still scratch your heads for answers.
Chart Update
compare this current chart with the one in the attached post
1- Downside pattern breakout
2- Back kiss the pattern breakout area (1.01)
3- Further selling.
Target is .83
Meanwhile, the Russel 2000 Index closed at week low, below the 200day moving average. Biotech index followed suit (All major indexes are completing right shoulders). Both events will likely lead to further downside follow-through.
Friday's triple witch has not been kind to stocks - especially microcaps.
Stocks that drop < 1.00 are on bankruptcy watch lists which get shorted heavily, preventing them from recovering.
By the way, AMRN closed lower today than any previous day since 11/10/2014 when it closed at an all time low of .83/share.
Accumulation --> Share price appreciation. That is not happening. In fact, the stock is undergoing distribution (more selling than accumulation), hence the continued deterioration in share value. Don't mistake "buying" for " short covering", as much of the buying recently is in that form as HFs rinse and repeat every 3 days.
Simply a downside resolution of a predictable TA/Volume pattern.
jasbg -
Yes Monk, the drug is amazing… just wish a few more countries, insurance companies, doctors, and patients knew that too.
The problem is not: “It’s the EPA stupid.”
The problem is: “It’s the PRICE stupid.”
Thanks to the generics, BP, and the cabal, the stock price is stuck in the abyss. No doubt they are more than ever determined to keep it there, in-spite of one man’s efforts.
Inverted Kangaroo Tail pattern breakout part 2
As expected, the pattern resolved downward, falling to a low of .96, followed by a reaction bounce to test the breakdown level of the pattern and the down trendline.
Yesterday's upthrust (yellow highlight) was an event that offered shorty a second chance to enter the pattern breakdown.
Looking for a test of the low today or the next day.
While this board keeps searching for something that will turn fate around, TA says "not yet".
The Chart that sums up how reality robbed FOMO:
2/24/23
TA was telling us all along that something wasn't right... something nefarious was happening behind the scenes, but FOMO - laced with hope - kept the investment alive. In fact, for many, the downward trajectory offered countless opportunities to load even more shares (catch a falling knife) - knowing that one day an even bigger payday will arrive (maybe... but maybe not).
I guarantee you this stock will be well illustrated in future trading books. The lessons emphasizing the importance of Price is king are vast. Lessons that clearly demonstrate the importance of merging/synchronizing Fundamental Analysis with Technical Analysis (TA being the go/no go determinant). The chart is reality. Price is reality. Everything else is hope based. Chart ticks - up or down - are the only determinants of wealth creation or destruction.
On 1/24/23 I posted:
Kiwi - you don't think AMRN has slipped into the abyss? LOL
Yes sir. The slide continues little by little.
I still can’t believe your PLTR pump was on the day it printed a top.
How is your AMRN investment doing? Have you given up catching falling knives or are you going to add some more now that is HAS slipped into the abyss?