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With all due respect. You should try saving yourself.
You should not depend on him or anyone to save you.
They tried and failed with a "buying program " with about 40 minutes to go. It should have taken us up to about 2190-2000 to close if it was successful. Needless to say, it was met by rapid selling as soon as the first buy wave was done.
Tomorrow morning, things will likely be cheaper than they are at the close.
down trend got some extra momo today.
No, I haven't tried the scan. Is it any good?
I have scans on my MyTrack as well as my RT3. They seem to work pretty good.
But I don't always do well bouncing around on stocks. I know some people who do really well. For me it's best if I get use to a handful opf them and switch hit on them while they are hoppoin around. When one begins to get stale, I find something else. Usually something I have already been slutting around with in the past
Actually, it's not really my score. Jeff Jordan started this thread on SI a while ago
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/subject.gsp?subjectid=50820 "charts"
Honestly, I didn't even study it that closely. I was excited and wanted pass it right along and look at what other goodies are I could find there.
This will work
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[w,a]waclynmy[dd][pb30!b200][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lc...
i believe it's your buddy Attin's site.
This is interesting
http://averages.dowjones.com/chrt1990.html
perpetually would work.
If I had a web site and the know how, I could do freeze frames, I think. But just anything where I could express better what it is I'm trying to convey.
I'll do some searching.
Thanks. I might have to do that.
But if there is nothing I can do. why not just let a blind guy think he's just cruzin slow in a corvette<G>
Thanks. Grrrrr!
Here are some unorganized thoughts I have right now.
I dunno.
But I'm just gonna type some thoughts here. and see if it can reveal anything to myself at least.
I think there are a lot of weak hands out there. I think we still have a ways(down) to go. I think that the recovery will be slow and teadious.
Do you have a link to were I can send monthly or weekly charts? I monitor them off my software so I can't send nothin' but if you look at them, it's not a rosey sight.
Assume 2000 holds on the comp- if not, than the next phase will be to get comfortable in the 1700-2000 range. But let's take 2000. Assume further that we are not going to get a V bottom on the daily. Safe to say that we won't get it off the monthly either?
It's gonna take months to set a firm base where Earnings will catch up to Prices and weaker hands get stronger. If we continue to sell, than Price is going to catch up to Earnings.
Anyone with cable having difficulties surfing tonight?
Not site specific. SI(lol, per usual) is painfully slow too.
What do you see happening to the COMP with the rate cuts coming?
Do you follow the fed futures at all? I would be interested in your take on this.
just curious, what do you consider a low PE?
If I had alot of money, I would go in and buy all my favorites for long term, making sure I had a good mix of sectors and they all had a low pe.
I have no problems with getting old.
BTW, double posting someone is a sign of frustration and/or impatience. LOL!
Still sunny there? Looks like another rainy day in NASD land.
>>It's not about looking out the window and saying "it's gonna be sunny today,", or "it's gonna rain today"<<
It is about trying to figure out what causes the change in the weather, and what might result from such events. No one can predict the weather with 100% accuracy. All anyone can do is use all methods they understand to lessen their chances for error.
Spare me.
>>I, at times, rely too heavily on technical analysis and you are my balance<<
How long have you been doing T/A(reading charts)? I'd be interested in your answer!
My comments had nothing to do with F/A, really! But I'm not surprised that you couldn't figure that out.
It's not about looking out the window and saying "it's gonna be sunny today,", or "it's gonna rain today", anyone can do that!
But you just keep on keeping on. I wish you the best of luck.
BTW, what's up with NEWP? http://www.investorshub.com/beta/read_msg.asp?message_id=49430
http://www.investorshub.com/beta/read_msg.asp?message_id=49906
$57 has now become S/T resistance, strickly IMO! And $48 was nailed within 1/2 point for a gain to your support!
That's okay, "don't fight the fed" I'm sure he will come through. But what happens after that? Buy and hold?
P.S> The above is all tongue and cheek, of course!
I'm sorry if you interpeted my debate as flogging. That was definitely not my intention.
Take care.
I suppose we can both agree that if you buy quality now with a "buy and hold" approach, eventually things will work out.
I do see one potential flaw in your statement regarding this and your provided link(http://chart.yahoo.com/c/my/_/_ixic.gif)
It only goes back to about '85. In that time we have had but two bear markets. And if you look at the duration of those compared with other historical bears, you will see they were both very short lived, in comparison. http://www.bearmarketcentral.com/images/duration.gif In fact, they are the two shortest ones since 1900 lasting less than half a year. Presently, the bear market in the NAZ is about 10 months so far.
Now for agrument's sake, let's look at a chart of the Dow going back a little further
http://chart.yahoo.com/c/my/_/_dji.gif
What I am looking at is how long it takes the market to regain their precious highs and move higher. I don't have the stats in fornt of me, but I believe it took 25 years for the '29 bear to get beyobnd it's previous set highs. the Bear of 73-74 took what about eight or 10?
Sure, maybe it's different this time. But the fact still remains that the COMP is still way over valued as a whole and until that comes back in line some what, we ain't going much higher. E has to catch up to P or P is going to cathc up with E.
I also agree with you that people cause recessions. They are the ones buying stocks with PEs over 100 on forward earnings and every other trick that is used to value the "new economy". They were doing this inspite of rising rates, so in reality, I think it is an inmature argument when I hear people blaming the Fed for our current conditions. It wasn't a very popular comment don't fight the fed back when he first strarted raising them.
Now, IMO we are in a real bind. And I do not think that rate cuts are the solution. The soultion is and always be responsible spending! Unfortunately, this is going to be a very hard pill to swallow.
I do have stocks in a longer term account. But i am planning on paying capitol gains on them. Am I of the "buy and hold" school right now? No way. People can do the buy and hold approach if they want, but i believe that for the most part, it's dead money at best for the next five to 10 years. When will Cisco reach 80 again? Next year? five years? Maybe 10 years? Maybe 20!!! How about the other stocks. Will they even be around in ten years?
Hello my friend.
I don't mean to keep looking down.
From your article:
>>"They liked Nasdaq at 5,000 and now they hate it near 2,000. <<
I don't think they hate it just yet. Their still hopeful. Hope needs to turn to dispare.
It appears that funds are starting to buy as of last week.
<<
How can a bear market occur with all the money flowing into mutual funds?
This is a common, widespread question, and you're right, we should revisit this myth. A simple answer would be, "In the same way the bear has wiped out $2 trillion in wealth over the past 10 weeks in spite of net mutual fund inflows."
Stocks don't rise on mutual fund inflows... they rise on soaring expectations. For every $1 that goes into a mutual fund and the fund invests in a stock, someone else must sell that $1 of stock. Money doesn't flow "into" or "out of" the market except in the case of new issues, secondary offerings, or cash takeovers. Money flows through the market - and it's rising or falling expectations that drive stock prices.
Proof lies in historical fact. The chart below shows the cumulative inflows into equity mutual funds over this past bull market - a total of $1,287 billion. It also shows how much the market has increased in capitalization - $10,711 billion. It's a fallacy to think that $1,287 billion created the entire $10,711 billion increase in stock value. The majority of that increase came in rising valuations fueled by soaring expectations.
http://www.bearmarketcentral.com/stackqanda.htm
This is a good read from a bearish perspective, FWIW.
Hi, are you still holding your NEWP?
I am thnking I might take a chance on it today.
Looks like we stand a good chance of hitting 2000 intraday. Big question is if we can rebound off this morning sell off and how much of a rebound we'll get(if we get one). If by the second attempt we can't get out of the funk, than very possibly we will see some real capitulation next week(early)
Which makes me wonder when the Fed will come into the scene with 50 beepers and than assume at least another 25 EOMarch.
I hope he waits until after capitulation. Otherwise he will trigger it and that will only prove that rate cuts are not going to rescue us; which in turn might bring about one of the nastiest days in market history. I'm not talking fire and brimstone, but something pretty damn close to it.
Optimistically, I'd like to see a close about 2325. But it might just be a head fake so treding lightly would be the way to go.
Remember heros often die in real life. No sense in trying to be a hero. If we are coming close to a bottom, there will be pleanty of time to rebuild the portfolio. Remember it;s much easier to buy something in a rising market than trying to sell something in a falling market....emotionally and physically.
Wish we had preview here. I fear I'm babbling and would probably edit some out<G>
Hey, what is the time frame for the edit window?
Does anyone really know?
Piffin, yeah. Like the term, but damned if I can get it to work for me.
ROTF!!!! That was funny.
Thanks for that>
Piffin dood!
HG, I have never been in a bear market either. So I lack the experience of knowing when we will recover.
However, the bear of 73-74 took ten years for the nifty fifty to recover. Do you have that much time?
only thing rthat might make a difference is that the Fed is lowering rates right now. I believe that is what started the bull market of the early 80s.
However, I'm still not convinced yet that what the fed is throwing on the fire isn't gasoline instead of water. Time will tell.
Morning Reid.
I always looked at those formations(candles) as rather ominus, FWIW. IMO, the only argument for a bottom is the near term support we have from hitting 2250 a couple times and bouncing off it. I still believe we are stepping it down a notch into a range of 2000-2400.
Still too many people saying "if you buy now, you will be rewarded this time next year"- Hope springs eternal!
Until there is relatively no hope left, we haven't hit the ultimate bottom.
IMO, we won't find a bottom until people stop buying, if that makes any sense.
I really don't have an opinion on them, son't follow it.
I remember someone on MS was trading it around in the 30s last fall. That was the last time I had looked at it. Wow!
Lots of gaps in the chart. I don't like that from a trading perspective. It is a flip or you planning on holding it for a bit?
Oops, i meant today. sorry 'bout that.
Try as I may, I can't predict the future.<G>
FWIW, they got another downgrade tomorrow.
$48 looks like the magic number to hold onto.
If you do your own dental work...
You might be a redneck!
Okay, I thunk that one up by myself.
I have a shirt tail uncle(no, I'm not a redneck<G>) who used to pull his own teeth. I kid you not.
Once we went to his house. He answered the door with a bottle of whiskey in hand, and his white Tshirt full of blood down the front. We thought he finally did in his wife. But he was just pulling a bad tooth!
Oh, how innocebnt of me!
BTW, there were two. ;)
Here's one.
When life looks like easy street
There is danger at your door
-robert hunter.
P.S> "preview would surely be appreciated.
I don't care so much about a spell check, but in the case of long winded posts(or maybe that's a hint<G>) it would sure help to preview my message so I know whe I sent it, it's the way I intended. instead of scrambling to get it before the edit window is closed.
A note:
Earlier I was trying to figure out why I kept getting sent back to my profile when I would send a message.
Apparently, it works like this. If you respond in public, it takes you to the thread header with the list of posts. If you click on( sometimes accidentialy) to "private" from a public message link, and send a private, it takes you to your profile.
Do I have this correct?
FWIW, I think the "send private" link on a public message should be moves elsewhere. I have sent a number of PMs which I thought were going private.
Maybe it's just me.
Dunno
Hi HG,
For the italics and bold, are you remembering to use "[" and "]" instead of "<" and ">"?
Let me see....
bold
italics
As for the 15 minute window, it's there(though I don't know what the time frame is) it just doesn't show the time remaining to edit.
My guess is that Chambers is attempting to sway public sentiment to try and force the fed to lower(early) by another 50beeps.
The result, IMO, is that he is ineffective on both counts.
I dunno know.
If your scenario works out, that my guess is it will come down to 33-35 and close 38-40 and make a run to at least 48.
But I am of the other camp right now until I see something to change my opinion.. I am figuring that we open(Tuesday<G>) maybe up slightly, make a run for 2500, but fall off sharply. I might be speeding things up a bit(and the charts don't really show it) but I am thinking that maybe, maybe we are ready for another step down. Where everyone gets comfortable trading in the range of 2000 and 2400.
Do you remember when I posted this?
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=12390182 I wasn't joking.
I realize this may sound stupid(god knows I've been stupid before) but I can see up trading in a range of 1500 and 2000 into the end of this year.Of course, I wouldn't mind being wrong. It's a lot easier to make money when stocks are going up.
P.S> I wish we had "preview" here.
cheers to looking up!
Bottoms up! phssssst!
Cuz I been wrong before, I don't feel bad anymore when I'm wrong<G>
Well, they have the penny flippers!
http://www.investorshub.com/beta/boards.asp?cat_id=112
I haven't gotten into much trouble here yet.
I did start the beer thread in the wrong forum. When the sheriff saw it, he deleted it. Than he let me start a new one, but stuck me in "The Sheriff's Office" forum. I suspect they don't want it to turn into Gamora!
Hey buddy, got three more inches of snow here last night. Imma notta happy camper!
If you think the comp is bottoming, you might want to take a look ata weekly and monthly at nuan.
CHEERS!