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I'll probably be institutional after this Lightwave experience. I now know why this is the first and only bulletin board stock I own, and whatever happens, good,bad or ugly, it is my last, because I would have to have my head examined to buy another. I'm beginning to think the only people buying bulletin board stocks are in straight jackets, and they let them out of it long enough to make the buy orders.
No I didn't say 2 by the conference call, someone else. The rest is true prior to the call and since they pushed out their time frame, I have to also, unfortunately
I predicted and knew Mickelson would deliver the goods, and he did. Now here's the problem. EVERYBODY here, thought what I thought, and that is, that the devices(probably waveguides or modulators) from the LSS were devices DESIGNED to be used in optical interconnects. And if Indigo was coated and we proved it worked on these devices, they would be used in a product, we would sign a contract, start getting revenue and off we go.
Know we find out that those devices weren't designed for anything. We are now told that we are in a 18 to 24 month "design window". Certainly not what I was expecting, and anybody here who says they expected that is a liar. Now, after we go through this design window, then what. They haven't told us, but I would expect an additional 9 to 12 months of sales and production ramp-up. I know, Phil says we will get some chump change payments along the way, great.
I have concluded now that we will not see significant revenue until late 2016, probably 2017, by that I mean 50 million plus.
Therefore, Lightwave can no longer disappoint me. If it happens earlier, great, if not, we hopefully will in 2017.
And the stock price will ultimately provide the answer in the years to come. If it breaks 5, then the prospects will look very good. If it breaks .50, its over. If we get bought out, then the above and anything I ever said is meaningless, it might very well be meaningless even without a buyout.
The long road, got longer after that conference call. If you plan on riding this out, like I do, whatever the outcome is, and I know ahead of time, that it will either be great or ugly. They can longer disappoint me because I now do not expect SIGNIFICANT REVENUE until 2017. Everybody has their own objectives and time frames, so do as you please, but please don't own this or any other stock because of expectations of a buyout. Its all about earnings, earnings, earnings and hopefully someday we will have some, before I die.
My last point for today. I don't need the cheerleader coming on a conference call and telling Tom "he undersold the news about the LSS" Hopefully those days of hot air and bs are over.
Excellent Smars. I agree totally. In my opinion, Tom is building the foundation, using 10,000 pound concrete, 12 inches wide poured concrete walls and loaded up with rebar. I love Tom. Previously the foundation, IMHO, was being built with hotair, and that never works. And that was basically my whole point. But I'm not always right, I will admit it when proven otherwise, as I did when 86 corrected me about the trade secret point.
Smars, nothing has changed about the company's future, although I was surprised about this 18 to 24 month thing. Its just that the future always seems to get pushed out all the time. I've never sold a share, unlike others. As Wise said, in 2011, Phil said a contract and revenue was near. Its 2013.
The stock price will reflect the company and the company prospects alone. Nothing any of us say good or bad makes any difference in the price of the stock, although some here obviously think they can influence it.
The positives vastly outweigh the negatives, but there are still many improvements that need to happen. IMHO, the inhouse investor relations is not bad, but horrible. Likewise sales and marketing.
So go ahead everybody, I know whats coming next, I'll be criticized and attacked and everybody will defend the cheerleader
and former shareholder. Meanwhile I'm still a shareholder.
Oh, I see now. hush-hush, don't keep it real.
Walter, with all due respect, I put no credence in anything that Cheerleader Phil says. BTW, he said "I use to be a shareholder".
That's interesting Phil, you are the former Chairman of the Board, and had so much confidence in the company, and now you are no longer a shareholder. Gee, let me guess when did you dump them, on the move over 2.50? Please, don't tell me he has warrants, I know that, big deal.Half the 10K is devoted to warrants and stock options they give each other like candy. The bottomline "I used to be a shareholder". Anything Phil Smith says is now meaningless, and of no use to me.
Exactly right Sam, as we can see that and the 18 to 24 design in,with no guarantee they will use us, there could be other choices also, took all the steam out of the stock price. I thought our days under 1. were gone forever, I'm not so sure anymore.
Lets say for some reason it doesn't work out with this LSS, which could happen, as a matter of fact based on their track record, at best its 50/50. Tom says significant revenue is a year away. Significant to him is totally different than significant to us. If he produced 5 million in revenue he would think thats significant, since we have never had any revenue. Significant to me at least,starts at 50 million and then up from there.
So significant revenue to me therefore is 3 years out, not 1 year.
Good points 86, I stand corrected.
Ultimately we need patent protection. To me a trademark on Indigo is almost meaningless, not only for protection from large companies but from clever individuals. i.e.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kia_Silverbrook
I'm sure most of us here had some similar thoughts after listening to the conference call, some positives, some negatives and some surprises.
Lou Bintz is a huge positive surprise and we need more people like him on the team.
I was surprise about a couple of things. The 8 months of "exciting" M&A possibilities was hogwash. The 18 to 24 months design window, the way things work at Lightwave, go with the 2 years. When someone asked the question at the SHM about having a protected patent portfolio, to me, Dave Eaton, I thought, indicated it was very well protected. I assumed patents on Indigo had been filed. I understand why they haven't filed a patent for Indigo, but that is also a dangerous game of Russian roulette, considering this company's future is dependent on Indigo.
Agreed Prop. Although the conference call was very good, I must admit I was surprised about this 18 to 24 months design in window.
I kinda thought that once the LSS tested the devices and they met their requirements that some kind of production would start, maybe 6 to 9 months out and some nice revenue would flow. To hear that we now have to go through a 18 to 24 months design window was a little disheartening.
We should be working with all the microlelectronics companys in this datacenter application, because we have no guarantee that this particular LSS will use Indigo, and if they decide not to, then there are 3 to 4 others who may.
I just don't like putting all our eggs in one basket.
Actually, lets be honest, Tom didn't sound too enthusiast about Fiberlogix and Celestech, he actually called Celestech a thorn in his side. Thats what he said about Lockheed, and we know what happened there.
In my mind we are currently working with one potential customer, the LSS. We have to start working with more in the datacenter area, ASAP.
Volume seems good, but price action sucks.
I thought with the progress Lightwave is making the stock would now be selling closer to 2, than to 1. Shows you how smart I am.
Agreed Pro when talking about data center, cloud apps, Lou Bintz used terms like "key opportunities" and "potential customers",plurals, so we can only hope that Lightwave works with more than just the 1 LSS they currently are in this area which appears to be the closest to commercialization.
Intel sells their chips and microprocessors to whoever can use them and wants to buy them. So should we, no exclusives
Since Ponz is talking about organized crime, here is my favorite scene, from what I think is the best movie ever.
LOL, Thanks X for the kind words, not sure how smart I am, but I try to do my due-diligence and homework and hope for the best.
I never even bother looking at the Yahoo board, because it is a farce, but since you said the little degenerate mentioned my name, I went and took a look to see what you were talking about.
I see someone there is talking about project SNIPER and IBM. Personally I think we are working with Intel, but my hopes are we start working with others in the data center, cloud application area (Lou Bintz seemed to indicate that) and IBM and Intel would certainly be great.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-30685_3-20024223-264.html
http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2013/01/22/silicon-photonics-the-data-center-at-light-speed/
86, did it from memory, but I went back and looked at last years 10K, and I was close.
David Eaton: Salary: 56,000
Stock Options: 76,248
Tom spoke about remaining "focused" and when you look at the opportunities that are here now and as Lou Bintz said "short term", if you look at the article on Silicon Photonics, they seem to have it perfect.
Currently the apps are high performance computing, data centers and military and aerospace, which is where Tom is staying focused and will lead to revenue the soonest. I've been a big proponent of medical, biochips and biosensors, but thats a ways out. Even SLM and third order is further out. The fact that Tom said they are focused on the Indigo family, to me means data centers.
The great news and what got me pumped up was listening to Lou Bintz, when talking about data center opportunities in the short term and he ALWAYS spoke in plurals "potential customers" "they" "some key opportunities" "customers"
Since they have only announced working with 1 microelectronics company, it certainly seems to me that we should expect some announcements about a few more in the next 3 to 6 months.
And whoever "they" eventually turn out to be, "they" are big names. Start with Intel, IBM, Cisco, HP, Samsung, Infinera,etc.
That opportunity seems to be their primary focus, even military has taken a back burner, which is fine, because the opportinities in data centers, optical networks, and cloud computing are huge and they are closest.
I look forward to more announcements about us working with other microelectronic companies in the data center area.
Philips would certainly put us into some key areas like consumer and medical, their primary focus right now though seems to be data center apps.
Next 3 to 6 months,regarding development and design in projects with other microelectronics companies (more than 1), not production, production is a 2014 event.
The cherry on top, was Lou Bintz saying "in the short term"
To me thats the next 3 to 6 months
The bottomline to my long winded post, is that we are currently working with one microelectronics company(IMO,Intel)regarding data center, cloud applications.
After listening to Lou Bintz talk about potential customers in this area, it seems we are going to be working with others. If we get any news about working with another LSS or microelectronics company in the next few months regarding datacenter apps, it will be off to the races.
As PropJoe(Ray)Kinsella said "If we build it, they will come"
GLTA, the next 3 months should be interesting.
Lou Bintz, used MANY plurals and if you listen to him again it gets fascinating.
"In the short term, some of the key efforts that we are now looking on, data computing centers, optical networks for data transfer"
Nice, here is where it gets great.
Specifically continuing with data centers "on the device side with the Univ. of Colorado and with key potential customers (plural, not just one LSS, more coming), we've been looking at the exact properties and exactly what do they (more than one) need. We've identified some key opportunities (again plural, not just one LSS)"
"Focus on specific markets (datacenters), we hold the cards, against the parameters of those customers (plural again, calls them customers already here, not potential, and they have only announce working with 1 LSS)
The incredible news to me is that it looks like we can expect announcements in the next 6 months about working with other microelectronics companies on data center apps. That's also why Leonberger talks about 50% market share.
Assuming we are working with our friends from Hillsboro, Intel, then those additional potential customers in this data center app include IBM, Infinera ( Rick posted about them) , Samsung, Cisco and others. Basically look at the 2 right columns of the below link, under devices and systems and pick your favorites.
Lou Bintz comments about data centers CUSTOMERS, always using plurals, is the whole key to the call, and the best news I've heard so far. Tack on Lou mentioning at some point "getting stretched".
Congrats Tom, this is the "New Lightwave" Now it could get very exciting and obviously profitable. Raising my end of year 2014 price target to 25 to 27. based on the conference call.
GLTA
http://www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/2012/SEP/YOLE_270912.html
Agreed Smars, the recent pullbacks seem to last a few days.
The volume continues to be improving nicely, it improved significantly in March to 144,000 per day and so far for April it has average 164,000. Imagine if we had a public relations machine.
BTW, not to belabor the point, I might be wrong, but Dave Eaton gets paid 57,000 per year and he was instrumental in developing Indigo, works on patents, chemistry, etc. Steve C. makes 100,000 per year and does what? Sends press releases that Tom writes to the newswire for release. I've said previously that its reached the point of insanity. At least be on the call reading the safe harbor crap at the beginning and coordinating the questions. Can you do something please.
If the EM Photonics device is ready by the end of April, and Tom said he is "chopping on the bit" to show investors the working modulator.
Then he probably has a window to hit some investor conferences between the first week in May and third week in June. Summer break then and conferences won't start again until mid September.
Hopefully he gets into one or two before the summer.
Agreed X, about the SPIR and STTR, no need discussing that.
What were your thoughts about Phil Smith's comments?
If a buyout happens, your thinking is 2013? What's an acceptable price to you?
Lou Bintz mentioned waveguides at least twice, maybe three. I have to listened to the call again.
Its seems this first app with Intel or IBM is interconnect apps. Apparently nobody has ever been able to achieve r33 values on slotted (ridge) waveguides, and then you can stack them.
It seems to me that we have and thats the "competitive edge" they are referring to. That is big news and an industry first.
Probably why they are so protective of Indigo and its properties and why they don't talk much about the LSS, why let the tech world know, until we have some deals in place.
Silicon Photonics article
http://www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/2012/SEP/YOLE_270912.html
Silicon Photonics "design in window" over the next 18 to 24 months and being ready at the doorstep. I think Lou was talking about the opportunities over the next 18 to 24, not just with our LSS, but for silicon photonics the entire area.
Silicon photonics is entering into the design phase, production phase follows.
But as Phil Smith said they undersold the announcement and that doesn't mean 18 months from now. Phil was here when they made that deal with Intel or IBM, so he knows who the company is, has worked with them and knows what the deal is.
Rick, it was my impression that Lou meant we are in the "design in window" over the next 18 to 24 months meaning we are in it right now. If could get designed in at anytime within this period.
I also think he means not just the LSS we are currently working with but others also.
He talks about at some point being "stretched"
I think you have to listen to it twice, and listen to the implications. They are very careful because of NDA's and confidentiality agreements but Bintz implied some interesting things.
For someone who has only been with the company for one month, Lou Bintz appears to have geared up quickly and hit the ground running.
Can I assume then that we will partnering with Intel or IBM on devices and components, as opposed to just selling them the Indigo?
Any update on purities of Perk, NR and Indigo?
My last questions, I've pestered you all too much, I'll wait to listen to the cc later.
Thanks for everybody's information and help.
Thanks for everyone's input in regards to the conference call.
From reading everybody, the great news to me, seems that everything they are now talking about appears to be components and devices. It appears whether, on our own, through a M&A, or with Intel or IBM, that we are not just interested in being a materials business and selling one of the Perks to someone, but as Joe Miller said at the SHM, we want to move up the food chain into devices, components and subsystems.
If I'm reading everything everybody has written it seems to me that we are now on that path to being a materials, device, components and subsystems based company.
GLTA
Was there anything about Fiberlogix or medical apps?
Thanks in advance.
I heard alot about 18 months, was that Lightwave's timeframe, because everything they do seems to take a long time. However, if it is being jointly developed with Intel or IBM, with a company that moves on things, and they throw their resources and expertise behind it, might it actually be 6 months.
Thank you Smars, since I wasn't able to join or listen, I anxiously await it. If for some reason they delete Phil Smith, maybe someone here can give they play by play from memory, doesn't have to be exact, but basically what the said.
Great, the conference call is still not on the website, you have to be shi**ing me. If new investors go to the site over the weekend you would think Lightwave would like it, so they can listen to the most current information. Most companies have a conference call on their website available 1 to 2 hours after the call.
BTW, am I missing something, or under company news the EM Photonics release and the LSS news of a few days ago is not posted under news?
WTF.
People, The time has come for a full time investor relations/public relations person, not in some other state, but comes to work at the Lightwave office, in Delaware, 9 to 5, everyday and produces. This has now reached the point of insanity with Steve. It has to change ASAP.
Outstanding point Theroc, don't dismiss the fact that we may at some point, be doing something with nLight because of Bintz.
probably a nice chunk, I think once the story starts to spread after an agreement with the LSS, IMHO, we never see under 2. again
I increased my objective as to the number of shares I would ultimately like to own, by trimming some positions in other stocks the last 2 weeks.
I was buying this morning like a happy little beaver.