Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Most likely because STEM was bought out/merging with a private Israeli company and is now up 520% on the day...
Birdy and my 2.50 covered calls most likely aren't going anywhere now that today's news on QST just threw a monkey wrench in Antares timeline.
I hope they get this resolved, but I may sell my 2.50's on Friday when I hit my 30 day mark.
Quarterly results are out - $1.7M in Q2 Otrexup sales, which is slightly above Ali Yasar's model. I hope we're still on target for 10M by end of the year.
It will be interesting to see how Antares manages this balancing act of generating Otrexup sales, partnership revenues, and managing expenese for the QST and QSM. I really hope we get to breakeven by mid-2015.
Who is really giving up their shares at these levels? I am contemplating stepping in and buying more tomorrow if we stay under $2.
TD - I strongly agree. Many of us know that this is a pipeline play that has a robust pipeline of proprietary and partnered products now through 2017. 2015 Teva pen launches, 2016 QST, 2017 QSM. That's all in addition to the Otrexup sales that should gain traction this year. I'm holding all of my shares am not worried about the $2 price. Traders can trade it lower or higher, I'll be holding on for quite some time as I see a bright future for this company. I don't expect 300% returns in a year, but I think growth will ramp up aggressively in the coming 3 years.
The company hasn't lost 90% of its value, the share price has from the "high" that you quote. I would actually argue that SCRC value is increasing. The business is making money and I think those of us that continue to hold will be rewarded when SCRC puts out their quarterly report showing they will soon be in positive EPS territory.
I believe it's just due to the fact that ATRS is not a sexy biotech with some multi billion dollar cancer cure. This is a slow steady pipeline play that I believe will bear fruit as we get closer to 2016.
Fair disclosure, I bought calls today as I feel the worst of news is priced in and over. We were last at $2.75 when the company was AIS and Otrexup wasn't approved and QST wasn't enrolled.
CEO Paul W resigned and is being replaced board member Eamonn Hobbs
BSAV - interested to see what happens with ACTC, a company I follow (owned and sold to roll into SCRC). CEO Gary Rabin was not the best candidate, and it will certainly be a step up with Paul as the new CEO.
Thanks Quick - just listened to the interview, very informative. I continue to hold my small amount of SCRC shs (1% of my portfolio). Best of luck for the rest of 2014 and beyond.
I second that, glad to see Rapimeds back. I'd love even more to see a ramp up of sales in Rapi like we're seeing in the compounding business. That would solidify SCRC on its way to a $1 share price.
Great thanks - and maybe I missed it, but is the interview going to be posted - link or otherwise?
Hi Quick - assuming revenue continues to increase as it has, and that company isn't going to raise additional funds - can you ask where management is focusing on redeploying the cash?
Are they going to make a push to execute Rapimeds strategy in China/HK, or are they going to focus on the PIMD/WholesaleRX business which has been compounding nicely?
Thanks Birdstone - I assume the jump in 2017 factors in QST and 2018 factors QSM.
I was using Ali's model which puts otrexup revs in 2015 at close to 100M on a significant ramp up
Has anyone revisited the financial projections for ATRS? Given the big money makers (Otrexup, QST and QSM) as well as the partnership revs (epipen, TevTropin, pen1/2), does anyone have a sales or price target out through 2017 or 2018?
I've been doing a bit of basic modeling and I'm coming up with following...
Assumptions: profit margin of 50%, tax 30%, p/e 18.5, discount rate of 10%.
Otrexup sales: using Ali Yasar sales trajectory numbers
QST: no sales til 2017, at which time they sell $50M (1% of ATRS projected Testosterone market potential of $5B in 2017)
2015
Rev = 125M
Profit = 44M
Shs o/s = 136M
Px = 5.5
2016
Rev = 285M
Profit = 100M
Shs o/s = 138M
Px = 11.1
2017
Rev = 370M
Profit = 130M
Shs o/s = 140M
Px = 12.9
Cache - I just read through Medac's docs. Seems like they patented methotrexate at a certain dose via SQ injection. They cited studies that showed this proved effective, and the examiner wrote their argument was persuasive.
My question: can you broadly patent a generic drug to be used in a generic injector? Can I tomorrow apply for a patent for generic vodka in a red plastic cup if drinking it reduces heart attacks?
Anyone have experience with patent law here? Curious as to what is important - initial filing, approval, other factors? SA author Ali Yasar wrote the following in April 2013.
"You can check out the penetration rates in Europe when Medac introduced the first SC MTX injection. Medac's injector captured 20% of units and 80% of all MTX sales. When you compare Medac's injector to Otrexup one has to believe that Otrexup would capture much more strongly because the difference between Otrexup and Medac Injector is like day and night."
Tink - I think the .10-.15 level prices in the toxic financing and noteholder selling. What I believe isn't priced in is any chance of success, which goes against what we're seeing in the Feb press releases.
I'm not blind to the amount of risk here, but in my opinion everything is going in the right direction at this point and the stock price is just depressed. Sooner or later the price will catch up to the future earnings and market potential of SCRC.
Added another 3k at .010 today to keep my 1% portfolio target. BSAV - add that as a small decimal point increase to the team's holdings!
Did anyone see today's news on Teva going for approval for 3x a week methotrexate instead of daily? These patents should not impact Otrexup, correct? Also - does ATRS supply Teva's methotrexate injectors?
"Jan 14 (Reuters) - Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd <TEVA.TA> said on Tuesday it is "completely confident" the new version of its flagship multiple sclerosis drug, Copaxone, which features less frequent dosing, will be approved in the United States in the near future.
The Israel-based company said it believes it will be able to get 45 percent of regular Copaxone patients to switch to the new drug, which is injected three times a week instead of daily."
"Teva executives at the conference said they expect further consolidation in the generic drugs space and said the company still has a sense of urgency when it comes to acquisitions."
If I'm not mistaken, there most certainly was a cost to Ironridge. They paid $700k in accounts payable for equity in SCRC. While this may be skewed in Ironridge's favor, the $700k was required to help finance Rapimeds in China, which is where the large returns in this investment will come from (assuming success in that market).
Good news indeed - and we're up 4% on top of that.
Quite a bit of options activity today, and someone just bought 40 Feb 2014 7.50 options for a nickle. Bold bet on a buyout perhaps?
I hope you and I both are up quite a bit more next year once they begin to execute. I just noticed someone bought 40 Feb 2014 7.50 options for a nickle. Wonder if someone knows something we don't, or is betting on an early year buyout.
Hi Art - I'm ScubaSteve and no, I'm not from the SNEY board. I follow SCRC, ATRS, PSTI and AMRN here on Ihub. Regards.
Sold half my position today at $2.10 to lock in a tax loss that will offset gains in everything else I sold this year. Will unload the half next year when we have a clear picture on Anchor/Reduce IT.
Mylan, Green Mountain Coffee, Southwestern Energy, etc.
I can't find anything in healthcare/biotech that was sub $1 that went on to be a huge success. This doesn't include stocks that were bought out at some point though.
I don't think this is your typical message board pump. I can honestly say I was introduced to AIS/ATRS by Scott Matusow in early 2012. I reviewed BSAV's research and, coupled with my own, invested because I thought the pipeline was phenominal. To date, I'm up about 20%, which would be higher if I didn't chase the stock in a few of the lots I bought.
BSAV is the reason I found SCRC. While I believe there is plenty of risk here, I'm OK contributing 1% of my portfolio for one of the two scenarios (OTC prescription business or Rapimeds) to play out. I would be perfectly happy if the stock went to .30-.50 next year. I'll take my original investment and let the rest run.
I'm not sure how many of you can claim this, but I post all my trades/portfolio information online for everyone to see. SCRC will be added to the Dec month end blog. Best of luck to everyone and happy holidays.
http://retireby60.blogspot.com/
Good news indeed - I'm glad to see SCRC moving in the right direction. I am envious of you guys with thousands of shares. I'm only in for 5000 which is ~1% of my portfolio, so I don't even make a dent into team BSAVs collective ownership.
I still have just under 20% of my portfolio in ATRS, so hopefully that stock starts to break out in 2014 as well.
Happy holidays to all of you guys!
I finally got in today at .15 and change. Long time ATRS holder (since AIS) here who liked what I read about SCRC, with much thanks to BSAV for detailed analysis as always. Best of luck to all...
Left out the best part...
Jack stated he feels the company can deliver, on average, 1 product a year for the next 5 to 10 years.
QST filing will be in 2015
QSM IND will be mid-2015, launch goal is 2017
My notes on the conf call...
Otrexup - 3 district managers, 25 reps hired by Thanksgiving
- 3rd party players involved, talked w/ Top 30
- will be covered by 29, UHC won't cover Tier 3 for 6 months
- 20-25 speakers to advocate in US/Europe for Otrexup
- 3 new Otrexup patents, about 20 total good through 2030
- pricing strategy = $548 (1mo supply, 4units, 1 dose/week)
- discussions w/ payers covering 200M lives, copay at launch, value increase will eventually move to Tier 2
- Psoriasis commericalization will be done with a partner
QST - fully enrolled ahead of schedule
- complete results available Q1 2014, target launch 2016
Pipeline - PFE OTC program on track, looking for 2016 launch
(believe I heard an analyst try to ask about the Advil Gel program, then she dropped)
- EpiPen making good progress w/ Teva, 6/20/15 commercialization
- SGA expense will be 2c/share starting in 2014 due to Oxtrexup
I just picked up some more shares at $3.90. I think we're getting a steal here, but I am a believer in the pipeline so the dips are fine by me.
If we bounce back into the mid 4s, I'll be writing covered calls as I've done up to the Otrexup approval run-up.
Sales esimates are rather low, no? I think most thought sales would be something like $50M, $80M, $120M with peak sales of closer to $200M.
I signed - thanks for creating this.
Anyone get the updated script numbers yet?
Does anyone know if Antares filed in the EU for their Otrexup injector program? I know there's subcutaneous injectable MTX available in the EU and Canadian markets, but is ATRS planning on competing in Europe, or solely the US?
Congrats all - unfortunately I am most likely going to be called out of my position in the next day or two if this keeps above $5. Hope to be back in on a pullback.
I hate my company's personal trading policy! Still waiting for approval and was happy to pull the trigger at 4, now I may have to sit this freebie out...
If I'm not mistaken, we can expect, based on the presentation, for ACTC to complete phase I for AMD/SMD sometime in December of this year? Hopefully that will be sufficient for the "logrithmic jump" or inflection points in value that Gary mentioned in the last conference call.
I may buy some more shares with the proceeds from the covered call I wrote on Friday, but I'm way overweight ATRS right now. Would look for a 4.20 entry price.